Valuation under imperfect information: Bayesian learning from the performance of the firm and the market

This paper develops a valuation model for a project or firm in the presence of uncertainty about the mean of the probability distribution of the cash flows generated by the project. Its major point is that in the presence of parameter uncertainty the value of the project is smaller than in the case where the mean cash flows is perfectly known. The second point is that when there is a known covariance between project cash flows and aggregate market cash flows investors can learn about the unknown mean cash flows by observing the market. This is referred to as ‘learning from the market’.     

DIVERSIFICATION WITHIN AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISE

This study examines diversification of the activities of business organizations. The meaning of diversification has been ambiguous in many studies that have used the concept as a way of describing strategic resource allocation decisions within firms. Many previous studies of diversification have suffered from a number of deficiencies. Some studies have observed the consequences of firms’ resource allocation and made inferences about the influence of organizational and external environmental factors on managers’ decisions affecting diversification. Other studies, that have been concerned with investigating diversification from a focus within the firm, have often adopted a molecular approach, being concerned with a limited number of organizational or environmental characteristics. In an attempt to redress these deficiencies, a contingency theory framework is used to describe and, in part, explain the formulation of decisions affecting diversification. This involves developing an unambiguous definition of diversification, and identifying organizational and external environmental characteristics that may be used to aid understanding of why firms diversify their activities in different ways.     

On the financial characteristics of firms that initiated new dividends during a period of economic recession and financial market turmoil

The initiation of new dividends and increases in dividend payout ratios occur infrequently because once initiated it would be expected by most investors that the new dividends will be maintained. Dividend announcements are said to have informational content concerning the value of the firm, and financial signaling theory would lead investors to conclude that the initiation of new dividends is an indication that the firm expects increased cash flows in the future. Thus, unless the initiation is identified beforehand as a special dividend resulting from unanticipated cash inflows, it is difficult to reverse the action without having an adverse effect on the value of the firm. In periods of economic recession and financial turmoil most firms conserve cash and the initiation of new dividends or increases in the dividend payout ratio in such periods are extraordinary and noteworthy. The purpose of this study is to provide a financial analysis of those firms described by Value Line as having initiated or increased the dividend payout ratio in the most recent period of economic recession and financial market turmoil. Specifically, the analysis will test for significant differences in the financial profiles of those firms that initiated new dividends in such a period, and companies selected at random but from the same industries. A unique financial profile is established for the dividend initiating firms, and it is suggested that the profile may be used to identify firms that will initiate new dividends in future periods of economic downturn. As in previous studies of this nature Multiple Discriminant Analysis is used.     

Entrepreneurship and Firm Boundaries: The Theory of A Firm

abstract In this paper, we consider how a better understanding of entrepreneurial activities can help explain how firm and industry boundaries change over time and how a more comprehensive understanding of boundary setting can explain where entrepreneurial activities are directed. We start from the premise that while entrepreneurs believe themselves to have superior ideas in one or multiple parts of the value chain, they are characteristically short of cash, and of the ability to convince others to provide it. This premise motivates a simple model in which the entrepreneur has a value‐adding set of ideas for ‘upstream’ and ‘downstream’ parts of a value chain, as well as for the ways to make these two parts of the value chain work better when joined under unitary control. Assuming that the entrepreneur's objective is to maximize her wealth, we observe that even in the presence of transactional risks or other factors that might make integration preferable to specialization, initial scope depends also on relatively unexplored factors such as (a) how severe the entrepreneur's cash constraint is, and (b) how much value the entrepreneur's ideas add at each part of the value chain. Entrepreneurs will focus on the areas that provide the maximum profit yield per available cash – a criterion which implies that scope choices depend on cash availability and the depth of the demand for the new idea along the value chain. We also note that entrepreneurs make money not only from the operating profits of their firms, but also from the appreciation of the assets the firm has accumulated. This consideration can change the optimal choice of the firms’ boundaries, as entrepreneurs must be sensitive to choosing the segment that will enable them to benefit not only in terms of profit, but also in terms of asset appreciation. We propose that, in the entrepreneurial context especially, it is helpful to focus on the multiple considerations affecting the choice of boundaries for ‘a’ firm – the context faced by an individual entrepreneur – rather than on generic considerations affecting ‘the’ (representative) firm. Scope choices reflect the entrepreneur's own theory of ‘how to make money’.     

Do adjustment costs explain investment-cash flow insensitivity?

In this paper, I explain two “puzzles” that have been observed in firm level data. First, firms that display a high sensitivity of investment to cash flow (commonly believed to be an indicator of liquidity constraints) usually have large unutilized lines of credit which, presumably, could be used to overcome the shortage of funds. Second, firms that are perceived to be extremely liquidity constrained actually show very little sensitivity of investment to cash flow.I show how a dynamic model of firm investment with liquidity constraints and non-convex costs of adjustment of capital can explain these facts. These two features together imply that firms need to have a certain threshold level of financial resources before they can afford to increase investment. Once they cross this threshold, firms’ investment will be positively correlated with their financial resources until they reach their desired level of capital stock. However, even if investment is sensitive to cash flow, firms may borrow below their credit limit to guard against future bankruptcy or binding liquidity constraints.     

Expectancy balance model for cash flow

Economic agents try to find out the composition of different forms of assets, and the amount of each, that maximizes total wealth. The money demanded by firms is a function of the benefits and costs of holding it considering other forms of assets. The money held in cash can be remunerated by some earning asset. Even when the money is invested in bank funds or bonds, the interest rate is usually lower than the return that the firm’s business may yield. When the firm keeps idle money in cash, the firm renounces to part of its profitability, incurring in the opportunity cost of not investing in alternatives, named Holding Cost. If the firm gives preference to other assets over cash, the balance level may be insufficient for its disbursement needs. The Shortage Cost is the price of obtaining money by other means. The Expectancy Balance Model (EBM) proposed minimizes the Total Cost (combined Holding and Shortage Costs) of maintaining and transforming money from or into other forms of assets. The EBM is an instrument of cash flow decision that deals with the demand for money by firms employing the maximizing utility of total wealth (set of assets) rule.     

Bimodality in diversification: An efficiency and effectiveness rationale

Various researchers have observed that the frequency distribution of firm diversification is bimodal. The two modes are created by a majority of firms employing either very little or substantial amounts of diversification. Only a minority of firms opt for medium amounts of diversification. From theoretical discussion of the forces of efficiency and effectiveness in diversification, this work provides a rationale for the bimodality phenomenon. In turn, research implications arise regarding optimum degrees of diversification, what the impact of optimization is upon firm performance, and why the measurement of both type and degree of diversification is important.     

Security-holder cash flows and the valuation of corporate investment projects

The difference between adjusted present value and cost-of-capital discounting procedures for evaluating corporate real-asset investment projects is re-examined. The two approaches are shown to contain different implicit assumptions about the distribution of project cash flows to security-holders. The consequences thereof for the proper valuation of individual projects in the context of a multiproject investment plan are considered.     

Do cash flows reported by firms articulate with their income statements and balance sheets? Descriptive evidence from Finland

Using data for a sample of listed Finnish firms for 1995–97 this paper examines the coincidence of reported cash flows with corresponding cash flows estimated from income statement and balance sheet data. The issue is important in light of prior empirical studies that have analysed the properties and usefulness of cash flow information derived from income statements and balance sheets. In addition, financial analyses of firms not disclosing cash flow statements are implicitly based on the assumption that income statements and balance sheets are useful in producing unbiased and efficient estimates of cash flows. The overall findings indicate that reported cash flows do not always articulate with income statements and balance sheets and that non-articulation can be observed in cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities. The differences between reported and estimated cash flows prove to be mostly random. The findings on cash flows from operating activities indicate that differences attributable to operating income and working capital are partially countervailing. The findings also suggest that the differences do not materially affect firms' relative rankings based on financial ratios. A detailed analysis of an individual company indicates that differences arising from the allocation of short-term liabilities to operating and financing activities can be important. Overall, the results call for the refinement of the standards and guidelines of cash flow reporting practices.     

International acquisitions in the united states: Evidence from returns to foreign bidders

This paper provides evidence on the minimally explored topic of abnormal returns earned by stockholders of foreign bidders seeking to acquire a target firm in the USA. Four sources of influence on abnormal returns are identified: changes in net wealth of the bidder associated with changes in exchange rates; possible value-destroying managerial discretionary behavior by bidders with excess cash flows, as suggested by Jensen; comparative advantages for foreign bidders domiciled in relatively favorable tax jurisdictions; ownership status of the target, i.e. whether the target is an entire firm and whether it involves divested assets. The study includes 77 firms from 10 countries. The results show that stockholders of foreign bidders earn significant, negative abnormal returns surrounding the announcement of an acquisition in the USA. These abnormal returns become increasingly negative over the 15 days after the announcement of the acquisition, indicating that more information about the acquisition is revealed to investors subsequent to the initial announcement. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that relative exchange rates and cash positions explain variation in abnormal returns. A decline in the value of the dollar increases abnormal returns for the foreign bidder, thus supporting the net wealth hypothesis. The results also show that cash-rich foreign firms tend to enjoy higher abnormal returns when making acquisitions in the USA. The result provides support for the Froot and Stein cash-constrained hypothesis rather than for Jensen's free-cash-flow theory.     

Corporate diversification and innovation: Managerial myopia or inefficient internal capital markets?

Which is more innovative: the decentralized, diversified firm, or the centralized, more narrowly focused firm? The economics and finance literatures argue that diversified firms have innovation advantages as their operating units have access to an internal capital market. In contrast, the strategy and entrepreneurship literatures argue that managers of these firms suffer from “managerial myopia,” discouraging them from investing in projects with long-term, uncertain payoffs. We take a fresh look at the relationship between innovation and diversification using a comprehensive sample of diversified and nondiversified firms and a novel approach that teases out the mechanisms influencing the relationship between diversification and innovation. Consistent with conceptual and empirical work in strategy, we find a robust negative correlation between diversification and R&D intensity, suggesting that diversification reduces innovation by discouraging investment. However, our analysis suggests that internal capital market inefficiencies, rather than managerial myopia, is responsible for this observed negative relationship.     

The Effect of Founding Family Influence on Firm Value and Corporate Governance

We examined a sample of 120 Norwegian, founding family controlled and non‐founding family controlled firms, to address two important research questions: (1) is founding family control associated with higher firm value; and (2) are there unique corporate governance conditions under which a founding family controlled firm can be more valuable? We find a positive association between founding family control and firm value for four alternative definitions of founding family control. We find that the association between founding family CEOs and firm value is stronger among younger firms, firms with smaller boards, and firms with a single class of shares. However, the impact of founding family directors on firm value is not affected by corporate governance conditions such as firm age, board independence, and number of share classes. We also find that the relation between founding family ownership and firm value is greater among older firms, firms with larger boards, and particularly when these firms have multiple classes of shares. Our results imply that founding family controlled firms are more valuable and governed differently than firms without such influence. Furthermore, our results also suggest that founding family CEOs can enhance firm performance when family influence does not create shareholder entrenchment or when their cash flow rights are more aligned with their control rights.     

Investment timing decisions under threat of potential competition: Why firm size matters

We study the value of the option to wait when other firms are looking at similar opportunities and may enter while one firm is waiting for uncertainty resolution. There are two important results. First the value of an investment project is affected by a firm’s assets-in-place, giving some firms a comparative advantage in competitive situations. Second, when two firms with different sized assets-in-place are looking at similar investment decisions, in the unique sub-game perfect equilibrium, the smaller firm invests earlier and also exits before a competing firm with larger assets-in-place. This makes an otherwise identical investment more valuable for the smaller firm. The larger firm optimally foregoes first-mover advantage because of higher expected exit costs.     

Capital rationing: The general case and a better criterion for ranking

The definition of net present value implies that the reinvestment rate of return on the intermediate cash flows is equal to the risk-adjusted discount rate of the project. However, in many situations, the two rates are different. Therefore, in capital rationing, the ranking of projects based on net present value is incorrect in those situations. Another problem is that financial managers would prefer to use internal rate of return for ranking, although ranking by net present value is theoretically superior. This paper solves both problems by developing a new ranking criterion.     

Worker poaching in a supply chain: Enemy from within?

Worker poaching represents the primary mode by which workers change employers. We examine worker poaching between firms linked in a value chain. We find that, in a value chain, the less productive firm may offer its workers higher wages and poach workers from the more productive firm. We also find that worker flows accomplished via poaching impact supply chain management: (a) the identity of the bottleneck firm may depend on whether poaching is available; (b) poaching between linked firms may benefit both, and (c) the value chain cannot be fully coordinated without controlling wages in the labor market.     

Dividend reinvestment plans and Pecking Order capital structure behavior: An empirical investigation

Due to the asymmetric information effect, corporations have been reluctant to use external sources of equity capital. The adoption of dividend reinvestment plans (DRP) by large numbers of firms may indicate an alternative way to raise external equity funds. It has been shown that many factors may explain a firm’s decision concerning the source of the shares made available to DRP participants. The hypothesis to be tested is that the nature of the DRP actually selected may be predicted by financial characteristics such as cash flow generation, investment needs, historical dividend policy, firm ownership structure and firm capital structure. Using logistic regression analysis, results of joint tests of financial variables suggested by the Pecking Order Theory of capital structure indicate significant support for the hypothesis. Specifically, ownership structure, historical dividend policy and debt ratio are found to be key determinants of the type of DRP utilized.     

Riskiness,endogenous productivity dispersion and business cycles

In the data, cross-sectional productivity dispersion is countercyclical at both the plant level and the firm level, see e.g. Bloom (2009). I incorporate a firm׳s choice of risk level into a model of firm dynamics with real business cycle features to explain this empirical finding both qualitatively and quantitatively. In the model, in every period, each firm chooses the investment amount and the risk level associated with a production project every period. All projects available to each firm have the same expected flow return, determined by the aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to the firm׳s productivity, and differ from one another only in their risk. The endogenous option of exiting the market and the limited funding for new investment jointly play an important role in motivating firms׳ risk-taking behavior. The model predicts that, in each period, relatively small firms are more likely to take risk and hence exhibit a higher exit rate, and that the cross-sectional productivity dispersion, measured as the standard deviation of the realized individual component of productivity, is larger in recessions.     

A note resolving the debate on “The weighted average cost of capital is not quite right”

Miller (2009a) derives a weighted average cost of capital for the special case where the cash flows to equity and the cash flows to debt are annuities. The paper attracts debate. We show that the weighted average cost of capital is redundant in a world where interest paid is not tax deductible. The required rate of return on unlevered equity will consistently and reliably estimate the net present value of any project no matter the idiosyncratic beliefs of the analyst as to the year-by-year leverage of the project, or of the firm. We recommend that the weighted average cost of capital method is discarded.     

Corporate cash holdings and total factor productivity – A global analysis

Studies concerning total factor productivity (TFP) have investigated the effect of TFP on economic growth from a country-level perspective, which is a critical issue in the macroeconomics field. Few studies have examined how corporate financial decisions influence TFP from a firm-level perspective. Specifically, no extant studies have investigated how cash holdings affect firm productivity. This study utilizes data for firms in 65 countries during 1993–2017 to investigate the effect of cash holdings on TFP from a corporate perspective. The findings show that firms with higher cash holdings can enhance TFP. The results hold after considering endogenous problems, financial constraints, financial crises, corporate governance, institutional quality, and financial development as well as various robustness tests. Furthermore, we examine whether firms consistently invest their cash holdings into research and development (R&D) expenditures enhances firm productivity. The evidence indicates that higher cash holdings lead to steady increases in R&D expenditure, which improves firms’ TFP.     

Investeren en onzekerheid

Summary Investment and uncertainty
After a few introductory remarks about the necessity of uniform definitions about plan horizon, returns, expenses, interest factor ett. for all investment alternatives and the necessity of an also uniform way of prediction, several models on investment analysis which are known from literature are briefly discussed. For simplicity there is only one decision variable (i.e. capacity); the variables influencing it are called exogeneous variables. These exogeneous variables may be deterministic and then one has to maximize the sum of the discounted cash flows from each project where different levels of investment into a project are supposed to exclude each other. The maximization may be subject to restrictions or not. If the exogeneous variables are stochastic one has to maximize the expected utility, mostly defined by the expected value and the variance of the discounted cash flows. The way to carry this out is simulation. Also portfolio analysis may be used, but there are some objections against this method, which are discussed.