The Persistence and Forecast Accuracy of Earnings Components in the USA and Japan

Not all components of earnings are expected to provide similar information regarding future earnings. For example, basic financial statement analysis indicates that the persistence of ordinary income should be greater than the persistence of special, extraordinary, or discontinued operations. Because the market assigns higher multiples to earnings components that are more persistent, differentiating earnings components on the basis of relative persistence would appear to be useful. A focus on relative predictive value is consistent with research findings and user recommendations on separating earnings components that are persistent or permanent from those that are transitory or temporary. This paper examines the persistence and forecast accuracy of earnings components for retail and manufacturing companies listed in the world's two largest equity markets; the USA and Japan. We find the forecast accuracy of earnings in both the USA and Japan increases with greater disaggregation of earnings components. The results further indicate that the improvements in forecast accuracy due to earnings disaggregation are greater in the USA than in Japan. The greater emphasis and more detailed guidelines for reporting earnings components in the USA produce a better differentiation in the persistence of earnings components resulting in greater forecast improvements from earnings disaggregation.     

Accounting earnings and firm valuation: the French case

Considering that the level of the association between stock returns and accounting earnings provides a measure of the extent to which earnings summarize the information which is useful for firm valuation, this paper analyses the contemporaneous association between stock returns and earnings changes or earnings level of individual French stocks and portfolios for periods of one, two and five years between 1981 and 1990. The empirical findings are as follows. (a) Stock returns are more linked to earnings changes than to earnings levels indicating that earnings provide more information about changes in firm value than about firm value. (b) Earnings prepared in accordance with the French accounting principles are not less value-relevant than those prepared in accordance with US or UK GAAP. (c) A cross-sectionally and time-aggregated data procedure provides a large increase in the explanatory power of earnings for returns which is consistent with a noise-in-earnings effect probably induced by accounting measurement and valuation principles and with a recognition lag effect due to the fact that value-relevant events are not integrated into earnings exactly when they occur. These two effects are shown to be the major causes of the low association between earnings and returns generally observed in studies based on short period data for individual stocks.     

An Evaluation of the Value Relevance of Consolidated versus Unconsolidated Accounting Information: Evidence from Quoted Spanish Firms

In this paper we investigate the value-relevance of consolidated versus parent company accounting information. In particular we investigate the value relevance of the minority interest components of net total assets and earnings as currently reported and under the full entity approach to consolidated reporting. An Edwards-Bell-Ohlson valuation framework is used to generate results. By this means we cast light on the suitability of accounting regulation being developed based upon the entity or parent company theories of consolidation. We carry out the analysis in the Spanish context and the sample contains 474 observations of non-financial firms quoted in the Madrid Stock Exchange for the period 1991–97. The results from this analysis not only have domestic relevance but provide guidance of a more international nature relating to the impact of group definition, concepts of control and the most value relevant method of consolidated disclosure. The results show that, from a valuation perspective, consolidated information dominates non-consolidated, or parent company, information. However, neither the currently reported minority interest components of net total assets and earnings, nor their values under the full equity method of consolidation, are found to be value relevant. These results raise the question of whether group definitions based on the equity theory of consolidation are the most useful to investors.     

The Information Content of Earnings Components: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market

China's listed firms report substantial non-operating revenues and expenses. We argue that these non-core earnings should have different properties and different valuation implications than operating or core earnings. Furthermore, the different types of firm ownership may have differential impacts on the information content of earnings components. Based on data from 1996 to 2008, we find that core earnings are more persistent than non-core earnings. Because of this, core earnings have a greater association with contemporaneous stock returns. However, the stock market does not fully incorporate all the information in earnings; we find that core earnings are undervalued and non-core earnings are overvalued. This effect is much reduced for privately controlled listed firms. We develop an investment trading strategy to exploit these market inefficiencies.     

企业的利润结构与可持续增长 ——基于A股竞争性上市公司的经验证据

企业的可持续增长是社会经济可持续发展的基础,企业的可持续性增长能力与利润总额和利润构成密切相关.在新企业会计准则下,利润总额由核心利润、资产减值损失、公允价值变动损益、投资损益、营业外收支净额等五个部分构成,利润总额不同构成部分的来源不一样,稳定性和持久性也不一样.实证研究发现,盈利对企业增长的可持续性具有正面影响,利润总额的不同构成部分会对企业增长的可持续产生不同影响,利润结构可以提供有关企业可持续增长的增量信息,新企业会计准则下利润表项目的调整变化提高了利润表的信息含量.     

基于可持续发展的国有企业绩效评价体系研究

本文以可持续发展理论为指导,论述了社会绩效、环境绩效和公司治理水平与企业财务业绩及可持续发展的关系,提出了国有企业绩效评价体系在财务业绩评价基础上,应增加社会绩效、环境绩效和公司治理指标,设计了盈余质量系数对企业的净利润进行修正,以克服企业利润操纵对财务业绩的影响,使财务业绩的评价更具客观性;提出了通过行业效率评价来解决行业差异对企业绩效影响的建议。     

Firm Characteristics and the Pricing of Foreign Earnings of US Multinational Firms

Prior research finds a positive relation between current changes in foreign earnings of USmultinational firms and future stock returns. The cause of this relation is either (1) investors' mispricing of securities by underestimating the persistence of foreign earnings or (2) research design misspecifications (e.g., the researcher failing to control for cross‐sectional differences in risk). The purpose of this study is to determine which of these two competing explanations is more likely. If the anomalous results are due to market mispricing, then the anomalous results should be more pronounced for firms that are followed by fewer well‐informed, sophisticated investors and for firms that have foreign earnings that are more persistent than domestic earnings. If the anomaly is related to research design misspecification, then the existence of the anomaly is not expected to vary across these firm characteristics. The results are more consistent with the market mispricing hypothesis. Predicting the existence of the foreign earnings anomaly based on these firm‐specific characteristics increases our understanding of the true nature of the anomaly. In addition, relating the foreign earnings anomaly to firm‐specific characteristics provides relevant information to investors for firm valuation and helps to promote future academic research in the market's valuation of multinational firms' operations.     

International Variation in Bank Accounting Information Content

This study explores the cross‐country impact of financial system and banking regulations on the information content of bank earnings and book value. Test results provide empirical evidence that financial system and banking regulations have a joint effect on the association of equity price with earnings and book value components in Germany, France, the United Kingdom and United States. This effect is explainable by the objective bank function, which shows that earnings of the period determine the terminal book value, thus consistent with the clean surplus accounting approach. Cross‐country variation in bank accounting information content calls for caution in interpreting international bank financial and operating ratios.     

The Valuation-relevance of Earnings and Cash Flows: an International Perspective

We investigate which variable, earnings or cash flows, provides greater information for equity valuation within the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and Japan. We regress returns on earnings and cash flow metrics. We generally find earnings developed in three Anglo-Saxon countries—where capital is traditionally raised in public markets and reporting rules are unencumbered by taxation requirements—to have greater explanatory power for stock returns than cash flow metrics. Conversely, in two non-Anglo-Saxon countries—where capital is traditionally raised from private sources—earnings are generally not superior to cash flows for equity valuation, except in Japan, non-consolidated sample. While sensitivity analyses generally support the conclusions of our primary tests, in some of the additional analyses, earnings were superior to cash flows for samples from all countries. As expected, in all countries earnings have incremental information content over cash flows in explaining returns. Collectively, our findings provide two contributions. First, we generalize the findings of prior US research by showing that earnings are more important than cash flows for equity valuation in other Anglo-Saxon countries. Second and more importantly, our findings demonstrate that the superiority of earnings over cash flows is not universal. Rather, it depends on the national reporting regime and attendant institutional factors.     

The pricing accuracy of alternative equity valuation models: Scandinavian evidence

In many decision contexts, there is a need for benchmark equity valuations, based on simplified modeling and publicly available information. Prior research on U.S. data however shows that the accuracy of such valuation models can be low and sensitive to the choice of model specifications and value driver predictions. In this paper, we test the applicability and pricing accuracy of three fundamental valuation (dividend discount, residual income, and abnormal earnings growth) models, all based on forecasts of company dividends, earnings, and/or equity book values. Extending prior research, we apply these models to Scandinavian firms with accounting data from the period 2005–2014, explicitly testing two approaches for the prediction of the value drivers—exogenously forecasted numbers versus projected historical numbers. Given access to the forecasted value drivers, the dividend discount model comes out as the most accurate valuation model. In particular, this holds in a comparison between the most parsimonious model specifications. The residual income valuation model generates the best pricing accuracy given the prediction of value drivers based on historical financial numbers. Notably, we observe pricing errors that in general are lower than what has been reported in prior U.S.‐based research for the dividend discount and the residual income valuation models. The pricing accuracy of the abnormal earnings growth models is surprisingly weak in the Scandinavian setting. However, these models improve somewhat after a couple of complexity adjustments, in particular with value driver predictions based on the projected history setting.     

Valuation and Forecasting Roles of Dividends of Indonesian Listed Firms

We study the role of dividends in valuation and in forecasting future earnings in a low‐protection environment with highly concentrated ownership that is expected to yield low earnings quality. Using a sample of 372 distinct Indonesian firms listed on the IDX during the period 1995 to 2012 we show that dividends are reliably positively priced by the capital market, violating thus the dividend displacement theorem. This result persists even after controlling for some typical factors that affect firm value (capital structure, risk) and the effect of factors not separately identified, but priced by the Indonesian capital market (other information). Dividends replace accounting earnings entirely in valuation. Dividends are positively correlated to future earnings over and above current accounting earnings and other accounting and market variables. Both findings show that dividends play a central role on the Indonesian capital market. Finally, we show evidence consistent with the view that earnings management of Indonesian firms after 2002 is contractually efficient rather than opportunistic.     

On the Relationship between Voluntary Disclosure,Earnings Smoothing and the Value-Relevance of Earnings: The Case of Switzerland

Abstract

This paper examines whether voluntary disclosure by Swiss firms constrains the use of discretionary accruals to smooth earnings, and explores the effect of voluntary disclosure on the value relevance of earnings. We focus on Swiss firms because Switzerland's financial reporting system provides managers with extensive discretion in corporate disclosure, and there are important variations in the level of information provided in their annual reports. We consider that managers can choose two different ways to voluntarily convey information, either through the quality and quantity of annual report disclosure or, through compliance with International Accounting Standards (IAS)/International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) or US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Relying on a simultaneous equations approach, our results suggest that Swiss firms use discretionary accruals to smooth earnings. However, this relation is reduced for firms that voluntarily disclose more information in their annual report or comply with IAS/IFRS or US GAAP. Moreover, we show that discretionary accruals of high disclosers or of firms voluntarily complying with IAS/IFRS or US GAAP receive a lower valuation weight.     

Valuing unlisted shares: A dual approach to the major information determinants

Little is known about how professional valuation experts actually form judgements on the value of unlisted shares. This study examines the valuation process among Canadian valuators and the relative importance of each of the main information variables used in that process. A dual approach to the problem is adopted: (1) a major survey of 231 valuation experts and (2) a conjoint analysis experiment on 82 valuators using fabricated cases representative of realistic relationships. Both approaches conclude that while earnings prospects is the single most important factor in determining unlisted share values, the determination of value in the absence of a capital market is a highly complex process involving a host of information variables, many of which do not easily lend themselves to objective judgement.     

Accounting-based Valuation of Polish Listed Companies

This study examines the value relevance of the new accounting system in Poland. Using a model derived from the Edwards-Bell-Ohlson valuation framework, the relation of current earnings and lagged book values with the stock prices of Polish listed companies is tested. The accounting data are derived from the financial statements prepared under The Act on Accounting of 1994 , which assured a full compliance of the Polish accounting standards with the European Union directives. The results show that both current earnings and lagged book values are positively and significantly related to prices, and the magnitude of this relation is comparable to that reported in more advanced markets. Also, the incremental information content of lagged book value is greater than that of current earnings.     

Value relevance and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s

During the dot-com bubble of the 1990s, equity market valuation was a popular topic for investors, financial analysts and academics. Some questioned whether traditional accounting and financial information had lost its value relevance, as stocks traded at multiples of earnings well in excess of historic levels, leading Alan Greenspan to caution against “irrational exuberance.” This study examines the relation between market valuation and traditional accounting/financial information before, during and after the bubble. We confirm previous research that documents a decline in the relation between market value and traditional accounting information leading up to the bubble period. However, we also document that after the collapse of the bubble in 2000 this trend reverses. We also examine two related metrics that may provide a rational explanation for this phenomenon, including the quality of earnings, and the aggressiveness of financial analysts’ forecasts, finding some support that earnings quality may contribute to the changes in value relevance, but not the aggressiveness of analyst forecasts.     

Extracting Sustainable Earnings from Profit Margins

Revenues and expenses are fundamentally proportional to one another, but are likely to be disproportionally affected by transitory items or economic shocks. We build on this observation and propose a new measure of sustainable earnings based on deviations from normal profit margins. While some other sustainable earnings metrics attempt to identify transitory components on a line-by-line basis, our measure, referred to as the intensity of core earnings (ICE), uses ratio analysis to extract the transitory portion of earnings from all line items. We find that the ICE, as measured here, is positively associated with earnings persistence, better earnings predictability, and stronger market reaction to unexpected earnings. We also find that our measure is positively associated with post-earnings announcement excess stock returns. Comparing our measure with an accrual-based measure of earnings quality, we find that, in general, the two metrics provide distinct incremental information relative to one another and in some instances our measure is better than an accrual-based measure in assessing earnings quality.     

IFRS and Secrecy: Assessing Accounting Value Relevance Across Africa

We examine the value relevance of accounting across several African countries and test whether IFRS improved the value association of earnings and equity book values. We report a stronger valuation association between accounting and stock prices in African countries classified as having a secrecy culture. This increases after IFRS and more so for earnings. On the other hand, IFRS induced a stronger increase in the book value coefficient in the less secretive and more developed South African market. We surmise that the more conceptual focus of IFRS induced an increased demand for higher‐quality accounting professionals, which had a filtering‐down effect of improving quality information flow and breaking down the secrecy culture. Our research highlights the diverse impacts of IFRS and the role of culture, asset markets and accounting professionalism, in driving the relevance of accounting components across Africa.     

The Usefulness of Earnings and Book Value for Equity Valuation in Emerging Capital Markets: Evidence From Listed Companies in the People's Republic of China

This paper examines the relative value relevance in equity valuation of two sets of accounting information of listed Chinese companies which issued the so-called B shares to foreign investors on the Chinese stock exchanges. These firms are required to prepare two sets of financial statements: one based on China's accounting regulations (domestic GAAPs) and the other based on International Accounting Standards (IASs). The study adopted the Ohlson (1995) model and used the Davidson-MacKinnon J-test to assess which one of these two competing sets of accounting information is more closely associated with the share prices. The results showed that earnings and book value reported based on IASs have greater information content than those based on domestic GAAPs. The results of yearly regression analysis generally suggested that the explanatory power of these earnings and book values for share prices increased over time.     

The Stewardship Role of Analyst Forecasts,and Discretionary Versus Non-discretionary Accruals

We examine the interaction between discretionary and non-discretionary accruals in a stewardship setting. Contracting includes multiple rounds of renegotiation based on contractible accounting information and non-contractible but more timely non-accounting information. We show that accounting regulation aimed at increasing earnings quality from a valuation perspective (earnings persistence) may have a significant impact on how firms rationally respond in terms of allowing accrual discretion in order to alleviate the impact on the stewardship role of earnings. Increasing the precision of more timely non-accounting information (analyst earnings forecasts) increases the ex ante value of the firm and reduces costly earnings management. There is an optimal level of reversible non-discretionary accrual noise introduced through revenue recognition policies. Tight rules-based accounting regulation, as opposed to leaving firms more choice over non-discretionary accrual policies, may lead firms to rationally respond by inducing costly earnings management. More generally, regulating both earnings persistence and the tightness of admissible auditing policies may not result in less equilibrium earnings management.     

Stale and Scale Effects in Markets-Based Accounting Research: Evidence from the Valuation of Dividends

Abstract

This study revisits prior research on the valuation of dividends in an accounting-based valuation framework. Using a battery of tests, we show that market value deflation is essential in market-based tests of dividend displacement and signalling because it controls for ‘stale’ information in addition to scale (size) differences across firms. For US firms, we show that after controlling for ‘stale’ information, the empirical association between dividends and market values switches from positive to negative. This switch is not explained by scale differences across firms. Further, we show that after controlling for staleness, the valuation of dividends remains positive for European firms. This result is explained by the relatively stronger association of dividends with future earnings in these settings (i.e. signalling). Lastly, our country-specific estimates of dividend valuation provide a potentially valuable index for studies aimed at examining the effects of accounting and securities regulation on information asymmetries in an international context.