基于边界检验的中国谷物进口需求研究

文章在边界检验的基础上建立进口需求函数的UECM模型,研究了我国谷物进口对收入与相对价格的短期和长期弹性,结果发现玉米和大麦进口对收入和相对价格具有长期均衡的关系。从4个国家进口不同谷物产品长期收入弹性系数均为负,相对价格均为正;我国从美国进口玉米的短期相对价格弹性和从法国进口小麦的长期收入弹性都明显较大,即我国对美国和法国谷物进口较敏感;而从泰国进口水稻和从澳大利亚进口大麦的进口收入和相对价格弹性相对较小,即我国对泰国和澳大利亚谷物进口不论短期还是长期均不敏感,并保持相对稳定,从满足国内谷物需求的角度看,我国应与这两个国家建立长期稳定的贸易合作关系。     

我国农村居民收入与消费关系的协整分析

根据1978年～2011年的时间序列数据,运用协整理论和误差修正模型实证分析了我国农村居民人均收入与消费支出之间的关系。结果表明,二者之间存在协整关系,消费对收入的长期弹性系数为0.9599,短期弹性系数是0.8396,因而农村居民收入对消费影响显著,必须建立增加农村居民收入的长效机制。     

Intertemporal substitution, imports and the permanent income model

We examine the importance of intertemporal substitution in U.S. import consumption using a model of permanent income that allows for random preference shocks and additive separability. The latter feature allows us to take two estimation approaches. In the first approach, we show that there is a cointegrating restriction imposed by the first-order conditions of the model which allows us to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of imported and domestic goods consumption. In the second approach, we estimate the Euler equations using generalized method of moments. This approach, however, requires us to place some restrictive assumptions on the model that are not required for the first estimation approach. Thus, the two different approaches allow an assessment of the severity of these restrictive assumptions which are often imposed in the literature.     

The investment nature of income trusts and their role in diversified portfolios

We examine the investment characteristics of income trusts to explore their role within a portfolio as well as to clarify the on‐going political debate surrounding income trusts. Results show that income trusts exhibited risk‐adjusted performance that far outperformed equities and bonds during our sample period. We adopt a multifactor return generating process for ex‐post income trust returns to quantify the degree to which they are influenced by bond‐ and stock‐related effects. The relationship between trust returns and bond returns is very weak, whereas the relationship between trust returns and stock returns is quite strong. We conclude that while income trusts appear indistinct from equities as an asset class, they significantly expand the efficient set. Copyright © 2007 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new approach to financial integration and market income inequality

Using loan contracts of firms in the syndicated loan market, we generate weighted aggregate measures of financial connections of emerging market economies and relate these financial integration indices to income inequality. The results reveal that financial integration is beneficial in reducing market income inequality, but worsens net income inequality. Financial intermediation is detrimental to net income inequality, but beneficial in lowering market income inequality. The results show that independent access to financing has no relationship with income inequality. The results are invariant using alternative income inequality indices and using external instrument against internal instrument in identifying the equations.     

Use of microcredit for household income and consumption smoothing by low income communities

This paper discusses findings of a study that investigated income, savings and consumption patterns of low income people and critical factors that influence the use of microcredit—a form of small instant loans targeted for low income people—for household income and consumption smoothing. The sample of the study consisted of households from low income communities living in a lower‐middle income country—Sri Lanka. It was found that microcredit borrowers were using the loans for purposes that can be identified as income and consumption smoothing, which is beyond the ideas and intended practice of microcredit. The findings suggest that the consequences of using microcredit for income and consumption smoothing could be costly for households and the society at large.     

影响我国广义货币需求因素的实证分析

运用现代货币数量理论,以我国1996—2009年货币数据为样本．建立长期广义货币需求函数进行实证分析,其结果表明：广义货币需求的长期收入弹性均大于1;长期货币需求的利率弹性都小于货币需求的收入弹性;预期通货膨胀率对广义货币需求影响显著,呈现负向变动关系,即随着通货膨胀预期上升,对货币需求减少。这一结论同时表明。我们可根据货币需求之间的弹性关系检验货币政策的有效性,以达到控制货币供给量,完善货币需求体系。维持物价指数的相对稳定的目的。     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality

The paper estimates the relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality. Using US state-level data for the period 1989 to 2013, and the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, we find a significant positive relationship between entrepreneurship and income inequality. This finding is generally robust across alternative measures of inequality and entrepreneurship.     

Explaining import quality: The role of the income distribution

We examine a generalized version of Flam and Helpman [Flam, H., Helpman, E., 1987. Vertical Product Differentiation and North-South Trade. American Economic Review, 77, 810-822.] in which consumption prices for quality differentiated goods are rising in household income. We provide propositions for aggregating this relationship across heterogenous households to map cross-country differences in income distributions to cross-country differences in import price distributions. The theoretical predictions are examined and confirmed using disaggregated data on prices of traded goods and micro data on household income from the Luxemburg Income Study. Country pairs with more similar income distributions have more similar import price distributions, whether similarity is measured by 1st-4th moment statistics, population and consumption shares within world income and product price quantiles, or income and price dis-similarity indices.     

A note on “raising the mandatory retirement age and its effect on long‐run income and Pay As You Go (PAYG) pensions”

Fanti (2014, Metroeconomica, 65, 619–645) showed that raising the mandatory retirement age always reduces capital accumulation and may lower per young income and pension benefit, under the assumption that old labor and young labor are perfect substitutes (or equivalently, the elasticity of substitution is infinite). We reexamine his analysis by assuming that the two labors are imperfect substitutes (the elasticity of substitution is finite), and prove that his results no longer hold when the elasticity of substitution is not sufficiently high.     

Childhood economic status predicting later income: the role of networking ability and encouragement of participation

Drawing from a social capital perspective, this study examines the psychological mechanism and boundary conditions of the relationship between individuals’ childhood economic status (CES) and later income. Specifically, we tested the mediating role of networking ability and the moderating role of encouragement of participation in this relationship. With a sample of 3635 employees in China and the use of multistage stratified sampling, the results indicate that networking ability mediates the CES and later income relationship. Moreover, encouragement of participation acts as a necessary condition in the relationship between networking ability and later income. Specifically, when encouragement of participation was high, increased networking ability was associated with increased later income. When encouragement of participation was low, the positive relationship between employees’ networking ability and later income was no longer significant. Finally, the indirect effect of CES on later income mediated by networking ability was stronger for organizations with a higher level of encouragement of participation. Findings and future directions in the theory and practice of career development are discussed.     

The income inequality,financial depth and economic growth nexus in China

Income inequality has increased in China despite rapid economic growth. Income inequality could impinge on future development, leading to social tension or political instability. Our study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between three important macroeconomic indicators—income inequality, economic growth and financial depth. We utilise a two-step procedure of ARDL bounds and Granger causality for the analysis. The bounds test indicates the presence of a cointegrating relationship between income inequality, financial depth and economic growth in the long run. In the second step, we utilise the Granger causality approach. Results show a bidirectional causality between financial depth-growth and a unidirectional causality between inequality-growth in the short run. In the long run, results reveal that growth and financial depth determine Gini. Our findings provide support for the inequality-widening effect due to economic growth and higher credit provided to the private sector. We find no evidence of inequality-narrowing or income-equalising effect in the long run for the period of study. It is possible that the government's inclusive growth policies which started less than a decade ago have not taken effect for us to capture the inverted U-shape income equalising effect significantly.     

Factor tariffs and income

This article examines a tariff on an imported factor of production in a small, open economy with two domestic factors. Suppose the imported factor is intensive in export production, and labor in import competing production. The factor tariff would reduce export production and trade, but raise the wage. The flexibility afforded by the three factors raises the possibility that import spending might fall more than the decrease in output. That is, the factor tariff could raise income. Inelastic demand for the imported factor and a high labor share of income favor increased income.     

FDI,openness and income

This is an empirical study of the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on income. It presents cross-country evidence that inward FDI is positively correlated with income. In addition, an instrument for FDI is constructed to address the issue of endogeneity. The results show that instrumental-variables (IV) estimates of the impact of FDI on income are positive and greater than OLS estimates, similar to the findings on trade in Frankel and Romer (). The evidence in this paper suggests that inward FDI contributes to higher income, and favours the argument of Irwin and Terviö () that trade openness is subject to measurement error – in particular, trade is an imperfect proxy for many income-enhancing interactions between countries.     

收入驱动的居民国内旅游模型研究

城市与农村居民国内旅游客流量变化是居民人口与人均可支配收入的函数,人均收入的弹性系数高于人口。居民国内旅游出游率与人均可支配收入成对数直线关系,农村居民出游率在人均2000元处有一个转折点;居民国内旅游的客流量统计值与C-D模型理论值的相对偏差,与扣除通货膨胀后的实际收入增长率具有时间序列的相关性,其中城市居民国内客流量与上年收入增长率有关,农村居民客流量与当年收入增长率有关。     

服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响——基于豪斯克-麦奇收入不对称效应的验证

本文尝试构建一个基于H-M效应的模型,分析H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字变化的影响机制。并就该模型对美国经常账户赤字变化的解释能力进行验证,结果表明H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字的变化趋势具有较好的解释力。在此基础上,本文应用1986-2005年的数据分别估算了美国商品和服务品进出口收入弹性系数。估算结果显示,与商品进出口收入弹性系数相反,美国服务出口的收入弹性系数大于进口的收入弹性系数。为了探讨服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响,应用基于H-M效应的模型分析美国服务贸易的发展对其经常账户赤字变化的影响。     

Openness and income: The roles of trade and migration

This paper explores the relationship between openness to trade, immigration, and income per person across countries. To address endogeneity concerns we extend the instrumental-variables strategy introduced by Frankel and Romer (1999). We build predictors of openness to immigration and to trade for each country by using information on bilateral geographical and cultural distance (while controlling for country size). Since geography may affect income through other channels, we also control for climate, disease environment, natural resources, and colonial origins. Most importantly, we also account for the roles of institutions and early development. Our instrumental-variables estimates provide evidence of a robust, positive effect of openness to immigration on long-run income per capita. In contrast, we are unable to establish an effect of trade openness on income. We also show that the effect of migration operates through an increase in total factor productivity, which appears to reflect increased diversity in productive skills and, to some extent, a higher rate of innovation.     

Distributional Effects of Lower Food Prices in a Rich Country

Controlling for differences in taxes and transportation costs, the Nordic Competition Authorities claims, in a report from 2005, that food prices are 11% higher in Sweden compared to the EU-15 countries. One explanation for this put forward in the report is the limited competition on this market which suggests there to be a potential for lower food prices. This paper focuses on distributional effects of a price decrease on food. Based on a simple model of household utility, the households demand for food is derived and estimated. Price and income elasticities for different income groups are then calculated based on these parameter estimates. Our results suggest that food is a normal good with an average income elasticity of approximately 0.18 and a price elasticity of 0.45. In addition, and of importance from a policy perspective, the results indicate the income elasticity to differ across income groups while price elasticities are constant.     

经济改革和收入分配

本文探讨了以下几个问题:收入差距的基本情况、当前收入分配差距的估计结果、针对当前有关中国收入分配差距的一些估计上存在的争论以及对当前收入差距扩大问题的看法。本文指出,对待当前收入分配以及收入差距扩大的问题,要坚持两个原则:第一,应看到收入差距扩大和收入分配不公是不同的问题。第二,城乡收入差距有其历史的原因,应从历史角度来看待和理解当前的收入差距,才能在政策制定上有更加科学的考虑。     

Can income inequality promote democratization?

The aim of this paper is to study the effect of income inequality on the probability of democratization, in a panel of 51 transition countries during the period 1960–2008. Using a conditional fixed-effect logit estimation, we find robust results suggesting that income inequality (measured by the Gini index of household’s income inequality) has an inverse—U-shaped relation with the probability of transition from autarchy to democracy. We show that there is a turning point at a level of household’s income inequality equal to a Gini index of 40. When income inequality is below 40, then probability of transition is positively related to inequality, but when inequality is higher, a subsequent increase in inequality decreases the probability of democratization. This is consistent with Acemoglu and Robinson’s theory that shows how transitions are likeliest at moderate levels of inequality, while autocracy is likelier at the lowest and highest levels of inequality.