Expectations,monetary policy rules,and macroeconomic stability: Analysis of an open economy with flexible exchange rates

This paper makes use of a dynamic model of an open economy with flexible exchange rates to examine the dynamic characteristics of the system for different specifications of monetary authority behavior. The model contains dynamic adjustment equations for both output and prices. Two policy rules are examined: (a) maintaining a constant nominal money supply growth, and (b) maintaining a constant nominal interest rate. With the former the system is found to be self-equilibrating. The latter, however, could easily give rise to self-perpetuating disequilibrium situations. In both cases expectations play a crucial role in the adjustment process.     

SOCIAL CONFLICT,GROWTH AND FACTOR SHARES

Standard growth theory is based on atomistic agents with no strategic interactions among them. In contrast, we model growth as resulting from a one‐off, strategic game between ‘workers’ and owners of capital (‘capitalists’) on factor shares, in an otherwise standard ‘AK’ growth model. The resulting distribution of income between factors further determines the marginal revenue product of capital and the rate of growth. We analyse the properties of four equilibria: competitive, Stackelberg equilibrium, a hybrid non‐cooperative regime and cooperative, in terms of labour shares, growth and welfare. Our model thus endogenizes key aspects of the ‘social contract’.     

Growth,Diversification, and Business Group Formation in Entrepreneurial Firms

Recent empirical research has demonstrated that the growth process of entrepreneurial firms is frequently achieved through the formation of business groups: i.e. a set of companies run by the same entrepreneur (or entrepreneurial team). This has been hypothesised as result of a growth process by diversification of the original activity. This entrepreneurial growth process offers an alternative explanation for the formation of business Groups, than that arising from managerial efficiency and expediency. The main aim of the article is to explore group formation through entrepreneurial diversification using a sample of high growth entrepreneurial firms. The analysis demonstrates that the running of a group of companies by the same entrepreneur is not only induced by the geographical extension of their operation and by diversification but also by the differentiation policy aimed at serving different market segments within the same sector. This seems to contrast with the diversification policy and organisational setting of large, managerial firms     

New exports matter: Discoveries,foreign direct investment and growth,an empirical assessment for Middle East and North African countries

Export diversification has become a priority goal for the development of the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. In this article, we aim at measuring both the effects of exports' diversification on growth in MENA countries and the way new exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) interact with each others in the process of growth. Although the effects of FDI on growth have been scrutinized by numerous studies up to now, the effects of diversification and discoveries in export have only very recently been assessed. But no one has made explicit the way FDI and export discoveries interact in the growth process. A model is estimated by the system-generalized method of moments and we provide robust evidence that export discovery and FDI stimulate gross domestic product (GDP) growth in our sample of countries, and that FDI does not necessarily have the same effect on growth according to the level of discovery of the country. We also show that the joint positive effect of new exports and of imports suggest that technological spillover from import but also from the integration to global value chains are likely to occur in our sample of countries.     

TRADE,DEBT, AND UNEVEN DEVELOPMENT IN A NORTH-SOUTH MODEL

This paper examines a simple model of North-South trade and capital flows along structuralist lines. The South can choose its growth rate, but must finance its growth in excess of its savings by borrowing from the North. The long-run consequences of this process for the process of uneven development and for Southern debt-dependence are explored. The appropriate responses to a debt crisis are considered.     

Cover's universal portfolio,stochastic portfolio theory,and the numéraire portfolio

Cover's celebrated theorem states that the long‐run yield of a properly chosen “universal” portfolio is almost as good as that of the best retrospectively chosen constant rebalanced portfolio. The “universality” refers to the fact that this result is model‐free, that is, not dependent on an underlying stochastic process. We extend Cover's theorem to the setting of stochastic portfolio theory: the market portfolio is taken as the numéraire, and the rebalancing rule need not be constant anymore but may depend on the current state of the stock market. By fixing a stochastic model of the stock market this model‐free result is complemented by a comparison with the numéraire portfolio. Roughly speaking, under appropriate assumptions the asymptotic growth rate coincides for the three approaches mentioned in the title of this paper. We present results in both discrete and continuous time.     

效率提高会吞噬就业吗？旅游产业升级的就业效应研究

文章构建了旅游产业升级的就业效应测算模型,将旅游产业升级的就业效应分解为就业创造和就业破坏两个方面,并从总量、结构以及行业异质性三个角度对2000-2014年中国旅游产业升级的就业创造和破坏机制进行了研究。结果表明：(1)中国旅游产业升级总体上具有积极的就业增长效应,但由于旅游产业功能升级不足,旅游产业升级的就业创造效应主要来源于规模扩张和结构变动。(2)各行业就业增长与其效率滞后性基本呈现为正相关的关系,说明在旅游业内部存在鲍莫尔成本病问题。(3)住宿业就业创造与旅游总产出增长之间出现了此消彼长的两难困境。未来中国旅游产业升级应注重与文化产业融合,推进旅游向审美化、品质化、体验化方向发展。     

GDP growth determinants and foreign direct investment causality: the case of Iran

Given the economic conditions in Iran and the need to accelerate its economic growth, there is a rising interest in examining the variables that fuel its GDP growth. The scant literature on economic growth in Iran is composed of only a few scholarly studies that investigate this nation's GDP growth. However, none of these studies has examined the causality between GDP growth and its determining elements. The purpose of this study is: (1) to determine the economic variables that contribute to Iran's GDP per capita growth over time, and (2) to examine the causality between foreign direct investment and the relevant variables that are included in the model. To achieve these goals the study uses a model that is based on the postulates of de Mello. The results indicate that: (1) the major determinants of GDP per capita growth in Iran are value added growth and domestic investment growth; (2) there is no causal relationship between foreign direct investment growth and GDP per capita growth in Iran in either direction; and (3) there is no causal relationship between foreign direct investment growth and value added growth in Iran in either direction.     

CAPITALISTS,WORKERS AND SOCIAL SECURITY

This paper elaborates an exogenous growth model that nests overlapping generations of workers who save for life cycle reasons with dynastic agents who save for bequest reasons (‘capitalists’). The model overcomes Marglin's objection that the overlapping generations framework requires special assumptions about technology, and it also provides a natural environment to revisit Samuelson's analysis of lump‐sum transfers between generations. The ability of a benevolent planner to improve workers' welfare is severely restricted by the control capitalists exercise over the accumulation process. Prefunding social security assumes renewed significance because it overcomes this restriction.     

Endogenous Schumpeterian Growth,the Productivity Slowdown,and Entrepreneurial Dynamics

This paper used concepts from chaotical dynamic systems, information theory, and cybernetics to develop a model that depicts a Schumpeterian process through which entrepreneurs search for new combinations of both products and production processes that result in increased productivity and growth. The model provides the basis for an alternative conceptual framework for conducting research into the causes of the productivity slowdown that began in the United States in the early 1970s and continued until recently.     

Financial liberalization, structural change, and real exchange rate appreciations

The last twenty years have witnessed periods of sustained appreciations of the real exchange rate in emerging economies. The case of Mexico between 1988 and 2002 is representative of several episodes in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe in which countries opening to capital flows experienced large appreciations accompanied by a significant reallocation of workers towards the non-tradable sector. We account for these facts using a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with frictions to labor reallocation and two driving forces: (i) A decline in the cost of borrowing in foreign markets, and (ii) differential productivity growth across sectors. These two mechanisms account together for 60% of the decline in the domestic relative price of tradables in Mexico and for a large fraction of the observed reallocation of labor across sectors. The decline in the interest rate faced by Mexico in international markets is quantitatively the most important channel. Our results are robust to the inclusion of terms of trade into the model.     

Product development,imitation and economic growth: A note

Abstract

A dynamic North – South general equilibrium model of international product cycle is presented in this paper. The qualitative effects of strengthening intellectual property rights (IPR) on the balanced growth rate of the world economy is studied in two alternative cases: (i) imitation is direct from North to South; (ii) multinationalization is the channel of product transfer.     

FDI、金融发展与地区经济差异

本文利用中国29个省份1987~2007年的面板数据,考察了金融市场发展在推动FDI促进经济增长中的作用,以及这种作用在各个地区之间的差异。实证结果显示：在全国范围内,金融发展本身虽能促进经济的增长,但是其水平还未达到推动FDI促进经济增长的要求。在东部地区,金融市场对FDI经济增长效应产生了显著的促进作用,而在中、西部地区金融发展却没有成为推动FDI促进经济增长的良性机制。文章还同时分析了国内投资、人力资本投资、贸易开放度以及政府支出等变量对地区经济增长的影响。最后,在实证分析的基础上提出了若干政策建议。     

Growth,income distribution and unemployment in a two-sector economy

We build a two-sector general equilibrium growth model with capital-intensive consumption goods and a labour-intensive investment goods sector to investigate the coexistence of growth and unemployment. The model uses heterogeneity in saving behaviour, introduces an effective demand problem, has full employment of capital with input non-substitutability and shows that the aggregate labour employment is determined by available capital along with commodity market equilibrium. The long-run growth may not be balanced, and under biased growth, the level of unemployment may monotonically increase or decrease over time, or may first increase (decrease) and then decrease (increase). Such possible unemployment paths help us tightly define “jobless growth”.     

Financial liberalization,structural change,and real exchange rate appreciations

The last twenty years have witnessed periods of sustained appreciations of the real exchange rate in emerging economies. The case of Mexico between 1988 and 2002 is representative of several episodes in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe in which countries opening to capital flows experienced large appreciations accompanied by a significant reallocation of workers towards the non-tradable sector. We account for these facts using a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with frictions to labor reallocation and two driving forces: (i) A decline in the cost of borrowing in foreign markets, and (ii) differential productivity growth across sectors. These two mechanisms account together for 60% of the decline in the domestic relative price of tradables in Mexico and for a large fraction of the observed reallocation of labor across sectors. The decline in the interest rate faced by Mexico in international markets is quantitatively the most important channel. Our results are robust to the inclusion of terms of trade into the model.     

区际知识溢出不对称、产业区位与内生经济增长

本文在空间经济学相关模型的基础上加以拓展,分析区际知识溢出不对称对产业区位及长期经济增长率的影响机制。不同区域知识资本存量、吸收能力不同,使区际知识溢出呈现不对称特征,直接影响区域新资本创造成本,引致长期经济增长率出现差异。区域本身知识积累存在溢出效应,而且可以获取区外的知识溢出。空间因素在知识创造与知识溢出过程中具有重要作用。知识溢出效应的强度随距离衰减,对于毗邻区域,越是邻近知识创造中心的区域,获得的知识溢出效应就越强,但同时还受到自身吸收能力的制约。对于知识资本禀赋不具优势的区域来说,增强自身对区际知识溢出的吸收能力、充分开展与创新中心的合作,将会提高经济增长率,进入循环累积的正反馈过程。     

拥挤效应、经济增长与城市规模

本文运用新古典经济的框架建立了一个经济增长模型,系统分析了拥挤效应、经济增长与城市规模的关系。假设城市规模扩大产生集聚效应并反映为拥挤效应的降低,将拥挤效应作为影响经济增长的因素纳入生产函数,分析经济稳态的演化路径,得出最优的城市规模、合理的城市拥挤程度和稳定的经济增长速度,并分析扰动稳态的变量对演化路径的影响,据此给出了一个估算最优城市规模的简单模型的结论。研究表明在不同条件下城市的最优规模是可变的,不存在统一的最优城市规模,城市化进程应该适度有序的进行。     

The new value imperative for privately held companies: The why, what, and how of value management strategy

This discussion describes the why, what, and how of managing for value in privately held companies. Public companies continue to manage for value, a trend that is now pushing its way inexorably into privately held companies. First, we discuss the dynamics that are creating a value-management imperative for these companies. Second, we provide a signaling model to assist management of privately held companies in deciding whether to emphasize (a) revenue growth, (b) the spread between return on invested capital and the weighted average cost of capital, (c) reduction in the cost of capital, or (d) some combination of these three. The key-value-driver model provides guidance in addressing questions such as: Do we have the right to grow? Should we improve profit performance before we grow? What is our performance in relation to our cost of capital? We also describe how to acquire the data necessary to use the model. Third, we present some important but under-utilized tools based upon transactions cost and strategic cost management theories to assist executives in managing for value and discuss when to apply these tools within a strategic context.     

Foreign direct investment and growth under economic integration

This paper studies foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in a two-country endogenous growth model. Starting with a core-periphery steady state in the world, the model shows that economic integration gives rise to FDI, leads to an expansion of R&D activity in the industrial core, and increases the world growth rate. In that process, the peripheral country enjoys a rise in the level of living standards. The model suggests that the often-observed positive correlation between inward FDI and economic growth does not necessarily imply any causal relationship—both of them respond endogenously to economic integration.     

Bilateral Trade under Environmental Pressure: Balanced Growth

Based on the advance-retreat course (ARC) model - a growth model under environmental pressure, this paper builds a bilateral import and export trade growth model under environmental pressure. By using the model, the paper analyzes the impacts of innovation on import and export growth, presents a method for computing the optimal levels of imports and exports, derives the limit values of imports and exports, and obtains the limit equilibrium between exports and imports. Finally, a strategy for promoting import and export growth and achieving a bilateral trade balance according to the limit equilibrium is designed. The findings are the following: (i) innovation growth will gradually reduce goods import and export, and services import and export will increase, (ii) the U.S. import–export structure is more reasonable than that of China, and (iii) there is big room for services import and export growth for China.