Proliferating Regional Trade Arrangements: Why and Whither?

This paper investigates why regional trade arrangements (RTAs) are proliferating extensively and how the effects of multiple RTAs, by interacting with each other, evolve over time. Our empirical analysis, based on an extended gravity model utilising a large panel dataset of 175 countries from 1948 to 1999, shows that RTAs on average increase global trade by raising intra‐bloc trade without damaging extra‐bloc trade. The net trade effects, however, heavily depend on the types of RTA strategic evolution over time, which we categorise as ‘expansionary’ RTAs, ‘duplicate’ RTAs or ‘overlapping’ RTAs. We find that countries excluded from an RTA can benefit more from duplicating a separate RTA than from joining an existing RTA. This result explains why the number of bilateral trade blocs, rather than the membership size of existing RTAs, is currently exploding. We also find that the net trade‐creating effects of RTAs are substantially lower for countries participating in overlapping RTAs. This result suggests that it is less likely that the currently proliferating RTAs will completely merge and lead the world economy to global free trade. Our empirical results are robust to controlling for the characteristics of countries that may influence the impact of RTAs.     

The Nature and Structure of Trade–Financial Networks: Evidence from the New Zealand Pastoral Sector

Recent work on business organisation has shown how a network based upon trade can evolve into a more widely embracing trade and financial network. A growing network may also engender leaders who intermediate to reduce communication costs. This paper provides an historically based variation on such hypothesised network structures by showing that trade and finance can exist together as part of a network from the outset. New Zealand pastoral agent firms recognised from very early on that regular trading transactions between agent and farmer generated trust, reputational effects, and mutual information exchange vital for successful lending and the provision of pastoral services. Agents, and sometimes other functional groups, served as intermediating leaders as the network grew in size and complexity.     

Does Trade Liberalisation Trigger Tax Competition? Theory and Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper aims at assessing the empirical relevance of new economic geography models of tax competition. We rely on a simple model to specify tax reactions functions, which we estimate with a panel covering (up to) 26 OECD countries over the period 1982 to 2006. We provide striking support for the two main predictions regarding the slope and the constant of the reaction function: national governments seem to adjust their corporate tax rate towards the level chosen in countries that are more populated, and they tend to set higher corporate tax rates when their country enjoys a high real market potential. Through the latter effect, trade integration exerts a positive influence on the level of corporate taxation. However, using a theoretically grounded index of bilateral trade integration, we also show that trade liberalisation gives rise to significant tax interactions in the setting of effective average tax rates in the case of European countries, thus exerting a downward pressure on corporate tax rates.     

The Investment Development Path: Evidence from Poland and Other Countries of the Visegrád Group

This article discusses Polish foreign direct investment against that of the other Central and Eastern European countries belonging to the so-called Visegrád Group. The article is a continuation of this author’s previous work, now revised and taking into account a longer perspective of the analysis, theoretical recommendations modifying and widening the scope of the Investment Development Path model, the results of analytical studies published by other authors as well as the results of two research projects conducted by a Nicolaus Copernicus University team between 2006–2009 and 2010–2013. This article’s fundamental aim is to define the current stage of Poland’s economic development according to the Investment Development Path trajectory. The author concludes that Poland is in its third stage of development according to the Investment Development Path model, although still in an early phase of that stage.     

What's the Point of Reciprocal Trade Negotiations? Exports,Imports, and Gains from Trade

This paper explains why trade‐policy makers may prefer reciprocal trade negotiations (RTN) to unilateral tariff reductions (UTR) for economic reasons. It answers puzzles like ‘Why WTO reciprocity?’ and strengthens the unnecessarily weak case made for the WTO by those who downplay or dismiss benefits from foreign tariff reductions (FTR). RTN is superior to UTR because it provides economic benefits that UTR cannot – namely, FTR benefits which are clearer than potentially important UTR benefits: Whereas each policy offers efficiency gains, any terms‐of‐trade effect of UTR generally detracts from these gains, while any terms‐of‐trade effect of FTR is typically beneficial (especially for a small price‐taking country) with this benefit augmenting FTR's efficiency gains. Moreover, benefits from reductions in foreign barriers may come from several sources; they are not solely the result of terms‐of‐trade improvement – or economies of scale (the two benefits already noted in the literature, though often dismissed). For example, with foreign NTB elimination, possible home benefits are shown even with rising costs and terms‐of‐trade deterioration. RTN is also superior to UTR because, by eliminating protection in either NTB or tariff form, RTN provides an escape from not only a terms‐of‐trade prisoners’ dilemma, but many other previously unrecognised prisoners’ dilemmas, including one in international rent transfers, and several others with no economies‐of‐scale or terms‐of‐trade motivation. Of course, if superior RTN is not an option, UTR may well be desirable. If reciprocity is an option, but only in a narrower CU or FTA form, such reciprocity may still be superior to UTR, or it may be inferior; theory cannot unambiguously rank these.     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Finance–Growth–Innovation Nexus in EEA Countries: Evidence from a Multivariate VECM

This paper uses country-level data of European Economic Area countries between 1989 and 2016 to examine the interactions between economic growth, innovation, and financial market activities, with specific reference to the bond and insurance markets. Our intent is to know whether causality runs among these variables both ways, or not at all. Using a vector error correction model, the study finds that financial market activities and economic growth determine innovation activities in these countries. Additionally, the study also finds bidirectional Granger causality between financial market activities and economic growth, as well as between innovation activities and economic growth.     

Are Exports of China,Japan and Korea Diverted in the Major Regional Trading Blocs?

In recent years China, Japan and Korea, the three major economies in East Asia, have been gearing up their efforts to sign free trade agreements with many different regions and countries. One of the main reasons for this is that they fear that with a regionalism movement rising in every corner of the world, their exports are discriminated against and diverted in the trading blocs of other nations. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this is a real fear. We utilise the gravity equation augmented with dummy variables for regional trading blocs in three different specifications. One is the static, standard gravity model to examine the effect of regional blocs on the ‘level’ of exports from these three countries in 2003; the second is the fixed effects and random effects panel models for the period 1993–2003; and the third is the dynamic, partial‐adjustment model to examine the effect of blocs on the ‘changes’ in exports between 1993 and 2003. The results show that trade diversion is observed only for China's exports in EU, EFTA and EAEC, but no diversion effect is observed for Japan's and Korea's exports in any of the major trading blocs. On the other hand, trade creation is observed for exports from China in ASEAN, for exports from Japan in ASEAN, CACM, CARICOM, EAEC, EU and NAFTA, and for exports from Korea in ASEAN, CACM, EAEC and MERCOSUR. Thus, Japan's and Korea's fear of discrimination and trade diversion is ungrounded, while China's fear is grounded only to a limited extent.     

Impact of Environmental Regulations on Trade in the Main EU Countries: Conflict or Synergy?

In an increasingly integrated world with declining trade barriers, environmental regulations can have a decisive role in shaping countries’ comparative advantages. The conventional wisdom about environmental protection is that it comes at an additional cost on firms imposed by the government, which may erode their global competitiveness. However, this paradigm has been challenged by some analysts. In particular, Porter and van der Linde argue that pollution is often associated with a waste of resources and that more stringent environmental policies can stimulate innovations that may overcompensate for the costs of complying with these policies. This is known as the Porter hypothesis. While there is a broad empirical literature on the impact of trade on environment, the empirical literature on the impact of environmental regulations on trade flows is relatively scarce, very heterogeneous and presents mixed results. The innovative feature of this paper is its attempts to estimate, in a gravity setting, augmented with a proxi of environmental stringency, the impact of three major multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) on 15 EU countries’ bilateral exports. According to our estimates, in the period 1988–2008, to be member of MEAs had a positive average impact on EU‐15 bilateral exports. This evidence can be partly explained by a possible trade diversion effect with respect to countries that did not sign MEAs and a corresponding trade creation effect among members of the environmental agreements. Furthermore, evidence coming from interaction effects estimates seems to show that for exporting countries, having signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Montreal agreements partly mitigates (by the amount of the estimated coefficient) the negative impact of having a relatively more stringent environmental regulation on bilateral trade. This result could have important policy implications for the future international trade–environmental negotiations.     

The Effects of Attitudes,Subjective Norms,Attributions, and Individualism–Collectivism on Managers’ Responses to Bribery in Organizations: Evidence from a Developing Nation

The goal of this study was to introduce a model explaining how managers’ attitudes, subjective norms, attributions, and the individualism–collectivism cultural dimension affect the way managers’ deal with employee bribery in organizations. Twenty-six internal and external attributions related to bribery were identified through a series of structured interviews with 65 subject matter experts. These attributions, together with the other variables in the model, were evaluated by 354 (n = 354) Ecuadorian managers. Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that attitudes and external attributions significantly predicted managers’ intentions to discipline employees who accepted a bribe. In addition, external attributions mediated the relationship between individualism–collectivism and intent to discipline corrupt employees. Implications for the management of bribery in Latin American organizations are discussed.     

Women on the Board and Managers’ Pay: Evidence from Spain

The current literature shows great interest in the issue of gender diversity on boards of directors. Some studies have hypothesized a direct relationship between diversity and the value of the firm, but not many examine the intermediate mechanisms that may exert an influence on such relationships. We employ two stages of GMM estimation methodology to exhibit evidences of the relationship between gender diversity and compensation of top managers in the Spanish context. Results show that gender diversity positively affects the effectiveness of boards—in terms of composition, structure, size and functioning—influencing a proper design of top managers compensation linked to company performance. Evidences suggest that legislative actions aimed at increasing the presence of women on boards of directors are justified not only for ethical reasons, but also for reasons of economic efficiency.     

Price Discovery and Trading after Hours: New Evidence from the World’s Largest Carbon Exchange

We investigate the impact of after-hours trading on magnitude and timing of price discovery over the close-to-close period on the world’s largest carbon trading platform, the European Climate Exchange (ECX). Low-volume trading in carbon financial instruments can lead to relatively high levels of price discovery, but the generated pricing has low efficiency levels. This is associated with high levels of informed trades and low levels of liquidity trades. Our results show higher trading volume per minute and greater price efficiency for after hours when compared with regular trading hours. As a result of a higher proportion of informed trades, adverse selection costs for trades after hours are significantly larger than those for trades during the regular trading day.     

Trade Unions of China,Central American and Caribbean Countries to Further Friendship

Trade unions of China and seven central American and Caribbean countries on October 17 pledged to further friendship and cooperation."The All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU) is ready to further friendly relations with trade unions of central American and Caribbean countries under     

Effects of Outsider’s Monitoring on Capital Structure and Corporate Growth Strategy: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Debt-ridden corporate growth and increased vulnerability was one of the causes of the 1997 financial crisis in Korea. Introduction of the outside director system has been the core part of the board reforms following the crisis. Our estimation using instruments obtained from a natural experiment illustrates that outside monitoring has (i) improved capital structure of firms even when we control for the leverage regulation effect, (ii) enhanced compliance with leverage regulation and thus reduced business risks, and (iii) reduced excessive growth and excessive investment more consistently for the top 10 largest chaebols than non-chaebol firms and smaller sized chaebol affiliates. Our results shed some light on why existing studies report the positive effect of outsiders on firm value and add value to existing agency theory by illustrating that the effect of improved governance on capital structure could be non-linear.     

Effects of monetary policy news on financial assets: Evidence from Brazil on a bivariate VAR-GARCH model (2006–17)

The impact of news releases related to the inflation targeting regime on the financial market is analyzed by estimating a bivariate VAR GARCH-BEKK-in-mean model. We use daily data, from January 2006 to May 2017, of stock prices index (IBOVESPA), exchange rate (BRL/USD) and interbank deposit rate (DI360). We developed a positive and negative news index to measure the impact of news releases based on Caporale et al. (2016) and Caporale et al. (2018). Although the literature on the subject is vast, this paper fills relevant gaps in three ways. First, we investigate the bidirectional relationship between monetary policy related news releases and the behavior of asset prices before and after the 2008 crisis in Brazil. Second, we consider the relationship between the second moments of the variables of interest, using the conditional volatility as a proxy for uncertainty. Third, we provide a time series approach to measure the effect of macroeconomic related news releases on financial asset returns. The results indicate there are mean spread effects from news for the exchange rate and the Brazilian stock index: (i) the GARCH-in-mean parameter is statistically significant for positive and the difference of news for the DI360; (ii) monetary policy and external shocks are statiscally significant as expected with exception of the external shocks for the Brazilian stock index; and (iii) there are volatility spillovers and changes of this volatility after the crisis for stock index and DI360.     

China and Brazil Negotiated on the Issue of Soybean Trade

According to news from Reuters (Shanghai), officials of Brazil embassy said that officials from two sides would hold a negotiation on soybean trade on June 21 as sched-     

The Evolutionary Effects of Democracy: In the Long Run,We are All Trading?

It is well established that democracy affects trade, but how does this relationship change over time? The results suggest that democracy increases trade openness both in the short and long run. However, democracy only leads to a reduction in trade restrictions in the short term. In addition, the durability of a polity is employed as an instrument in order to consider the possibility that democracy and trade are endogenously related. This method helps to isolate a causal effect of democracy on trade, and the results suggest that the economic effect of democracy is 2–3 times larger than under OLS.