E. J. Moorhead (1910 – 2004)

Abstract

As is well known in actuarial practice, excess claims (outliers) have a disturbing effect on the ratemaking process. To obtain better estimators of premiums, which are based on credibility theory, Künsch and Gisler and Reinhard suggested using robust methods. The estimators proposed by these authors are indeed resistant to outliers and serve as an excellent example of how useful robust models can be for insurance pricing. In this article we further refine these procedures by reducing the degree of heuristic arguments they involve. Specifically we develop a class of robust estimators for the credibility premium when claims are approximately gamma-distributed and thoroughly study their robustness-efficiency trade-offs in large and small samples. Under specific datagenerating scenarios, this approach yields quantitative indices of estimators’ strength and weakness, and it allows the actuary (who is typically equipped with information beyond the statistical model) to choose a procedure from a full menu of possibilities. Practical performance of our methods is illustrated under several simulated scenarios and by employing expert judgment.     

A generalised arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model: The impact of unspanned stochastic volatility

Although statistical term structure models provide exceptional in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasting of interest rates, the lack of theoretical background is criticized by academics and practitioners, such as the absent of arbitrage free. In this paper we develop a general Arbitrage-Free Nelson–Siegel model under the HJM framework. It features unspanned stochastic volatility factors while maintaining a Nelson–Siegel factor loading structure. This paper also exploits the potential to jointly model the interest rates and their derivatives.     

Bridging the education–profession gap: The Accounting Student–Practitioner Day (ASPD) program

This paper provides a detailed discussion of an annual (and cost-effective) professional-development event we call the Accounting Student–Practitioner Day (ASPD). This program brings together, for a single day, students, accounting faculty, and accounting professionals in a conference-like setting. The conference format provides a unique, and formal, link between the classroom environment and the professional world students will be entering. The program is attended by accounting and non-accounting students from our university, senior students from area high schools, and undergraduate students from other universities in the area. Specific objectives of the program are to help students learn what it takes to become an accounting professional, to provide students with information that facilitates their career-choice decision, and to encourage networking and community-building activities. Assessment data indicate that the ASPD program is successful in terms of its stated objectives. The relatively low cost of operating the program makes it attractive for other accounting programs. The paper includes a set of recommendations for those faculty interested in implementing an ASPD program at their own institution.     

The 2007–2009 financial crisis and bank opaqueness

Doubts about the accuracy with which outside investors can assess a banking firm’s value motivate many government interventions in the banking market. Although the available empirical evidence is somewhat mixed, the recent financial crisis has reinforced a common assessment that banks are unusually opaque. This paper examines bank equity’s trading characteristics during “normal” periods and two “crisis” periods between 1993 and 2009. We find only limited (mixed) evidence that banks are unusually opaque during normal periods. However, consistent with theory, crises raise the adverse selection costs of trading bank shares relative to those of nonbank control firms. A bank’s balance sheet composition significantly affects its equity opacity, but we cannot detect specific balance sheet categories that have robust effects.     

Professor Reva Berman Brown (1939–2007) – A Tribute

The purpose of this study is twofold: (1) to determine if an ethics presentation at an Italian university can change students' perceptions of ethics; and (2) to compare the results of this study with previously published results from US students. The ethics presentation, previously developed by Smith, Smith and Mulig (2005) Journal of Business Ethics, 61(2), pp. 153–164, for accounting and business classes, made available on the Internet, was adapted and used in classes in Italy. As in the USA, Italy has faced significant financial scandals and corporate failures in recent years. Both Italian and US penal laws have been changed to prevent future financial frauds, but there are limits to what laws can accomplish. The ethics presentation described in this Teaching Note was an effort to encourage students to consider the importance of ethics. The impact of the presentation on Italian students' perspectives is described. In addition, a comparison is made of the impact of the presentation in Italy and in the USA, which shows that students in both countries regard ethics as a very important topic.     

The EONIA spread before and during the crisis of 2007–2009: The role of liquidity and credit risk

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the factors affecting the spread between the Euro Overnight Index Average (EONIA) and the main policy rate of the European Central Bank (ECB). Up until the period when Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September 2008, the spread was small and positive. After this point, the liquidity surplus that developed from the fixed rate full allotment tendering arrangement in refinancing operations drove the widening of EONIA spread (trading below the ECB policy rate), although other factors also played a significant role. This paper explains the drivers of spread across alternative non-crisis/crisis regimes. In addition, the paper examines how the EONIA spread reacts to shocks imposed on a range of liquidity and credit risk factors in alternative crisis/non-crisis regimes. The results have implications for factors that should be monitored closely across both regimes, and also the implications that this may have for steering an unsecured overnight rate in crisis times.     

Credit risk transfer in U.S. commercial banks: What changed during the 2007–2009 crisis?

Following the debate on the role of credit risk transfer (CRT) in exacerbating the 2007–2009 crisis, this paper investigates the usage and effects of loan sales, securitization, and credit derivatives in U.S. commercial banks over the last decade, with special emphasis on the financial crisis. We find that in times of severe funding constraints, the need to raise financial resources becomes the principal incentive behind CRT. We document some beneficial effects of CRT on the economy, since the funds released through CRT are subsequently invested by banks to sustain credit supply, also in recession. However, we report higher overall riskiness in banks that engage intensively in loans sales and securitization, which translates into higher default rates during the crisis. Interestingly, the benefits and drawbacks of CRT are much stronger for loan sales and securitization than for credit derivatives.     

The effects of news events on market contagion: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis

In this paper, we use the quantile regression technique along with coexceedance, a contagion measure, to assess the extent to which news events contribute to contagion in the stock markets during the crisis period between 2007 and 2009. Studies have shown that, not only the subprime crisis leads to a global recession, but the effects on the global stock markets have also been significant. We track the news events, both in the UK and the US, using the global recession timeline. We observe that the news events related to ad hoc bailouts of individual banks from the UK have a contagion effect throughout the period for most of the countries under investigation. This, however, is not found to be the case for the news events originating from the US. Our findings regarding the evidence of contagion effects in the UK reinforce the argument that spreads and contagion—an outcome of the risk perception of financial markets—are solely a result of the behaviour of investors or other financial market participants.     

Accounting manipulations and political costs: Tooth & Co Ltd, 1910–1965

Positive accounting theory posits that political costs influence accounting choices by large firms. Most studies rely on cross‐sectional analyses of large samples using coarse data. We employ rich archival data to analyse the profit measurement and disclosure practices of Tooth & Co, a large Australian brewing company, from 1910 to 1965. This period provides considerable variation in scope and incentives to manipulate reported profit. Reporting discretion changed significantly from early voluntary disclosure through to the extensive scheduled disclosure requirements of the Companies Act 1961. Varying incentives include changes in excise duties levied on beer production, and dramatic company growth and market dominance resulting from takeovers of competitors and vertical integration. We examine the pattern of reported profit in relation to internal records and the pattern of accruals. We find that Tooth's profit‐smoothing practices and understatements were perceived by management as important in justifying dividend policy, while systematic understatements of reported profit were used to avoid potential political costs associated with high profitability and market dominance. The most significant relative increases in profit understatement are shown to occur where dividend policy and political cost motivations coincide.