The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips

The impermanence of fixed exchange rates has become a stylized fact in international finance. The combination of the “mirage” view that pegs do not really peg with the “fear of floating” view that floats do not really float generates the conclusion that exchange rate regimes are, in practice, unimportant for the behavior of the exchange rate. This is consistent with evidence on the irrelevance of exchange rate regimes for general macroeconomic performance. Recent studies, however, show that the exchange rate regime matters. This can be understood by considering the dynamics of exchange rate regimes. We demonstrate that the “mirage” view is somewhat misleading and incomplete. Pegs frequently break, but many do last. Also, there is a high degree of flipping, that is, the re-formation of pegs that have broken. Thus, a fixed exchange rate today is a good predictor that one will exist in the future. We also investigate the quantitative effect of fixed exchange rates. While the “fear of floating” view suggests little actual difference in fixed and floating rates with respect to exchange rate volatility, we show that fixed exchange rates exhibit considerably greater bilateral exchange rate stability than flexible rates, both today and in the future.     

Say you fix,enjoy and relax. The deleterious effect of peg announcements on fiscal discipline in emerging markets

This paper explores the impact of exchange rate pegs on the fiscal stance of emerging markets during the nineties. We empirically show that announcing the pegs had deleterious effects on fiscal discipline, while ‘de facto’ pegs which were not announced delivered superior fiscal outcomes. The evidence suggests that this was due to the initial positive credibility shock of the announcement, which allowed for easier and less costly access to the financing of fiscal deficits in emerging countries.     

Examining Determinants of Foreign Wage Premiums in China

We estimate foreign wage premiums for every 3‐digit manufacturing industry in China and discover a wide range of premiums both for ‘foreign’ ownership and for overseas Chinese ownership. Foreign ownership generates larger and more prevalent wage premiums than overseas Chinese ownership, but both produce premiums that respond similarly in estimates of determinants. Using the number of computers per worker to measure firms' technology levels, we find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that foreign firms pay higher wages to reduce the risk of worker turnover and the accompanying technology leakage in 76 to 78 per cent of industries. However, this determinant explains only 5 to 6 per cent of the foreign wage premium. We find the most intensive support for the ‘fair wage’ hypothesis that foreign firms pay higher wages because they are more profitable than domestic firms and workers in more profitable firms expect to be paid more, otherwise they will shirk. This hypothesis explains an average of 8 to 9 per cent of the foreign wage premiums, with support found in 72 to 75 per cent of the industries. When we consider the best combination of explanatory variables to include in each industry's wage regression, we find evidence consistent with our combined hypotheses in most industries, but we still find large residual foreign wage premiums.     

Exchange rate regimes and national price levels

This paper explores the role of exchange rate regimes in explaining deviations from the classic theory of purchasing power parity. Examining a broad panel of countries, I find that developing countries with fixed exchange rate regimes have national price levels that are 20 percent higher than those with flexible regimes. For industrial countries, the relation between regimes and price levels is qualitatively similar but weaker. I investigate several explanations for this pattern, and find that exchange-rate overshooting in floats, inflation inertia in pegs and expansionary policies can explain only 5 percentage points of the observed differences. I also show that even though the observed pattern could be the outcome of a class of open economy models pioneered by Obstfeld and Rogoff, the data provides limited empirical support for the predictions of this model.     

China's exports,export tax rebates and exchange rate policy

This paper examines the relationship between China's exports, export tax rebates and exchange rate policy. It offers an explanation for why China's exports continued to rise under RMB real appreciations during the Asian financial crisis. Based on a traditional export demand model, we test our hypothesis that the counteracting effects of China's export tax rebate policy have diminished the effectiveness of real exchange rates in facilitating the resolution of trade imbalances under the current pegged exchange rate regime. We find evidence that RMB real appreciations during the crisis negatively affected China's exports, but the negative effects were mitigated by the positive effects of export tax rebates. We also find evidence of a long‐run relationship between China's exports and the other explanatory variables. The empirical evidence suggests that under the pegged exchange rate regime with limited adjustments, real exchange rate movements alone cannot resolve China's external imbalances. The policy implication of this study is that China needs to redirect its decades‐long export‐oriented development strategy to one that emphasises domestic demand‐oriented development and to replace the current pegged exchange rate regime with a market‐oriented more flexible exchange rate regime.     

Foreign ownership strategies of UK and US international franchisors: An exploratory application of Dunning's envelope paradigm

In industries dominated by franchising as the dominant mode of entry there is a tendency that franchisors pursue different ownership strategies. We test ownership strategies of international franchisors using Dunning's ‘envelope’ Ownership, Location and Internalization (OLI) paradigm. The ownership choices of international franchisors’ foreign market entry based on the strategic intent of exploitation and exploration are well explained by Dunning's ‘envelope’ OLI paradigm. Our results show that the dynamic L advantages (perceiving foreign locations as a source of learning), the static O advantages (nationality of the firm) and static L advantages (the role of foreign applicants) have a significant influence on the selection of foreign entry strategy by international franchisors.     

The FDI location decision: Distance and the effects of spatial dependence

We investigate how different conceptions of distance impact upon one of the fundamental decisions made by foreign investors, the choice of foreign direct investment (FDI) location within the selected host country. We argue that the attractiveness of host country locations to foreign investors depends not only upon location-specific attributes such as labor costs, but also upon the location's proximity to alternative locations. We provide theoretical rationales for how and why alternative concepts of distance might impact upon firms’ FDI location decisions, and explicitly model different measures of geographic, economic and administrative distance. Empirically we illustrate the use of a number of spatial regression models with a new dataset on FDI in Chinese prefecture-cities, and have shown, in this context, that geographic distance is not the ‘best’ measure of distance to use. We find clear evidence of spatial dependence between the cities based upon economic distance, with weaker evidence related to administrative distance. The distinctive contribution of this paper is to emphasize that city-level policy to attract FDI is more likely to succeed if the prefecture-city is economically (and administratively) close to alternative city locations, while any policy expenditure may fail to attract FDI inflows if the prefecture-city is distant from other city locations.     

Revisiting the role of cultural distance in MNC's foreign ownership mode choice: the moderating effect of experience attributes

This study investigates potential moderating effects of firm's experience levels in the relationship between cultural distance and foreign ownership mode choice. Using the well established Japanese FDI data base, it is found that higher levels of experience, particularly decision-specific experience (prior experience with a particular ownership structure mode), mitigates potential impacts of uncertainty and costs caused by the high level of cultural distance, thus uncovering one possible answer to the ‘national cultural distance paradox’ reported in the literature. These findings reinforce similar findings of interaction effects between key variables and cultural distance in studies involving other important strategic decisions of the MNC. The ‘decision-specific experience-moderated cultural distance’ variable, and not the ‘absolute cultural distance’ variable, is found to be an important determinant of a firm's foreign ownership mode choice. Furthermore, this variable dominates the other experience-moderated cultural distance variables (international business experience and host county experience-moderated cultural distance variables) in the ability to discriminate between full ownership and shared ownership modes. Based on this moderated cultural distance measure, we find strong evidence that cultural distance is positively associated with full ownership of Japanese foreign manufacturing entities.     

Resource-based FDI and expropriation in developing economies

Globally, foreign direct investment (FDI) assets are expropriated more in resource extraction industries compared to other sectors. Despite the higher apparent risk of expropriation in resources, countries more likely to expropriate also have a larger share of FDI in the resource sector. An incomplete markets model of FDI is developed to account for this puzzle. The type of government regime is stochastic, with low penalty regimes facing a relatively low, exogenous cost of expropriating FDI, and country risk is measured by the variation in these costs across different regimes. The key innovation of the model is that the government, before the regime type is known, is able to charge different prices to domestic and foreign investors for mineral rights. Granting cheap access increases FDI and reduces the country's share of resource rents, increasing the temptation to expropriate in a relatively low penalty regime. In very high-risk countries, subsidizing resource FDI increases the total value of output by raising investment, and the net gains from expropriating in a low penalty regime outweigh the rents foregone under a high penalty one. However, a stochastic resource output price results in relatively low-risk countries restricting FDI inflows to the resource sector instead — “windfall profits” in this sector raise incentives to expropriate when prices are high, yet minimization of the ex ante risk of expropriation is preferred owing to the relatively high penalty for expropriating. These results imply a higher average share of resource-based FDI in countries most likely to expropriate, while resources account for a high share of expropriated assets compared to the sector's global share of FDI. We show that the model is able to reconcile observed patterns of foreign investment and expropriation for a sample of 38 developing and emerging economies.     

Geographic clustering and outward foreign direct investment

This study addresses an important neglected question: To what extent do geographic clusters promote outward foreign direct investment (ODI)? We find evidence that clusters do promote ODI and so support Porter's argument that advantages gained in clusters can be the foundations of successful internationalisation. Digging deeper, we find that certain cluster incumbents promote more ODI than others, with more experienced firms and firms with stronger resource bases accounting for more ODI. We also find that firms located in clusters within major global nodes/cities engage in more ODI. Finally, we find that both localisation and urbanisation economies promote ODI. However, the former, within-industry effects, are more important. Overall, this study echoes Dunning's call for more focus on the ‘L’ component of the ownership, location, internalisation (OLI) paradigm and particularly on the advantages that reside in clusters that make them not only attractive destinations for foreign direct investment (FDI) but also fertile environments from which FDI can spring.     

Exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange exposure: The case of emerging market firms

We investigate the influence of exchange rate regimes on the foreign exchange exposure of emerging market firms. Using a sample of 1523 firms from 20 countries for the period December 1999 to December 2010, we find that about half of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. We find that non-floating exchange rate arrangements are associated with more widespread exposure as well as a greater magnitude of firms' exposure. Cross-sectional analyses suggest that the exchange rate regime is an important determinant of firm-level exchange rate exposure for emerging market firms, and that pegged exchange rate regimes amplify exposure. This result holds after controlling for a wide range of potential determinants of firm-level and country-level foreign exchange exposure. Our findings suggest that exchange rate regime matters at the micro as well as the macro level; non-floating regimes fail to protect firms from exchange rate exposure.     

Coups d'état and the foreign exchange market

I empirically examine the effect of coups d'état on the foreign exchange market using a monthly panel dataset covering 150 countries over the period 1980–2015. Specifically, I investigate whether foreign exchange market's participants sanction a country following a coup d'état event by allowing depreciations of its national currency against a weighted basket of currencies of its trading partners. I combine different identification strategies and find that the occurrence of a coup d'état induces a depreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate in the coup d'état country and generates negative spillover effects on neighbouring countries. Once a coup occurs, a country level of financial buffers and the flexibility of its exchange rate regime allow reducing the magnitude of the depreciation. In addition, I provide evidence that coups also increase the likelihood of experiencing a currency crisis by about 2 percentage points in coup d'état countries compared to non-coup d'état countries.     

Portfolio autarky: A welfare analysis

A variant of the standard Heckscher-Ohlin model, a model of a two-country world economy populated by Samuelsonian overlapping generations, is presented and then used in a welfare analysis of two international economic policy regimes: A laissez-faire regime, characterized by free trade in goods and complete freedom of portfolio choice; and a portfolio autarky regime, characterized by free trade in goods and a prohibition, applicable world-wide, on the ownership of foreign assets (land). Using a ‘growth model’ version of the traditional welfare criterion, it is shown that the laissez-faire regime is optimal and that the portfolio autarky regime is not.     

What attracts foreign direct investment into autocratic states? Regime time horizon and institutional design

States play a critical role in designing institutions to facilitate international business. We study the effect of autocratic states' time horizons on their attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) through designing domestic and international institutions. We argue that autocrats with a long time horizon tend to build credible domestic commitment-institutions that attract foreign investors; however, they are also likely to affect the design of commitment carve-outs in international institutions, in particular bilateral investment treaties, thus weakening their institutional effect on foreign investment. We test these dual effects of regime time horizon on FDI inflow using data from 80 autocratic states over a 33-year period and find substantial support for our arguments.     

Control mechanisms of MNEs and absorption of foreign technology in cross-border acquisitions

This study investigates the impact of control mechanisms exercised by MNEs on knowledge (technology) absorption in cross-border acquisitions (CBAs). The empirical examination was undertaken in Korea, which is a newly industrialized emerging market, where knowledge acquisition from foreign investing firms is particularly important to leapfrog into advanced economies. We find that most of the control mechanisms (i.e., ‘staffing the top management positions’, ‘participation in the policy making and planning process’, ‘interaction of the subsidiary's top management with the MNE’ and ‘participation of foreign expatriates in key functional areas’) have a positive association with organizational learning. In addition, we also uncover that provision of training programs for a fixed period creates more synergy when it is combined with constant and continuous education in daily activities. This study contributes significantly to the body of control mechanism literature and the understanding of CBAs, and also provides practical implications for MNEs intending to enter foreign markets by partially purchasing the equity shares of local firms.     

Reforming the Governance of the International Monetary Fund

Democratising the governance of the IMF will significantly improve the institution's capacity to manage crises. The implementation of a democratic framework requires a reform of the Fund's ‘quota regime,’ which mediates the distribution of voting power. An optimal reform of the quota regime that reflects the increased weight of emerging economies requires matching the number of policy objectives with the number of policy instruments. Presently, there is a classic ‘assignment problem’ whereby one policy instrument (i.e., the quota regime) is aimed at achieving three objectives (i.e., member contribution obligations, access rights, and voting rights). Three different instruments need to be adopted. Member contributions should be based on member's capacity to pay; access to resources should be based on need; and voting rights should balance the rights of creditors with the principle of sovereign equality. These reforms will enhance the Fund's legitimacy and accountability as a forum for global economic policy‐making.     

International investment and Nazi politics: The cloaking of German assets abroad, 1936–1945

This article deals with the relationship between business and government during the Third Reich in making policy toward attempts by German companies to protect their foreign assets. In contrast to the widely held view of many professional historians and journalists, we argue that business engaged in these efforts largely without governmental assistance, indeed often in the face of resistance from the regime, since for the most part companies set up structures that were contrary to the wishes of the National Socialist political bureaucracy. Although some of the evidence we present here is known to historians, much of our interpretation of the data has not penetrated professional accounts of the period. The cloaking story, moreover, has implications for contemporary multinational business. As the Second World War approached, fear of expropriation became a more important motivation for cloaking, but even in the late 1930s German managers created these structures for a variety of commercial reasons. Firms are still confronted by a myriad of pressures and political risks, not the least of which are those posed by their own home countries' actions that affect the value of their foreign assets. We argue here that one of the commercial objectives of German businesses' cloaking efforts was to reduce the political risk of the actions of the country in which they were incorporated.     

Why the Middle is Unstable: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises

The contribution of sticky exchange rates to the rash of currency crises over the past decade has become a major topic of international monetary analysis and policy discussion. While there is widespread agreement among economists that the middle of the exchange rate spectrum, adjustable pegs, is highly crisis‐prone in a world of substantial capital mobility, Jeffrey Frankel has recently argued that, surprisingly, we lack a clear theoretical rationale for why this is so. This paper attempts to fill that void. It argues that Frankel is correct in terms of economic analysis alone, but that when political economy considerations are introduced then a satisfactory explanation is at hand. Key aspects of this political economy perspective are laid out and implications for exchange rate policy are considered. The analysis suggests that for promoting currency stability the traditionally debated distinctions between crawling bands and managed floats are likely less important than the political environments in which they are operated.     

Market access,supplier access,and Africa's manufactured exports: A firm level analysis

Abstract

In a large cross-country sample of manufacturing establishments drawn from 188 cities, average exports per establishments are smaller for African firms than for businesses in other regions. Based on the estimation of firm level exporting equations, we show that this is mainly because, on average, African firms face more adverse economic geography and operate in poorer institutional settings. One part of the effect of geography operates through Africa's lower ‘foreign market access’: African firms are located further away from wealthier or denser potential export markets. A second occurs through the region's lower ‘supplier access’: African firms face steeper input prices, partly because of their physical distance from cheaper foreign suppliers, and partly because domestic substitutes for importable inputs are more expensive. Africa's poorer institutions reduce its manufactured exports directly, as well as indirectly, by lowering foreign market access and supplier access. Both geography and institutions influence average firm level exports significantly more through their effect on the number of exporters than through their impact on how much each exporter sells onto foreign markets.