企业战略差异度会影响分析师盈余预测吗？

随着我国资本市场的发展,证券分析师的作用日益凸显,关于分析师盈余预测的研究一直是各界关注的重点。采用我国沪深两市A股上市公司2011—2015年分析师盈余预测数据,检验了企业战略差异度对分析师盈余预测精度和分析师跟踪偏好的影响。实证结果表明：（1）企业战略差异度越大,分析师盈余预测准确度越低;（2）企业战略差异度越大,分析师盈余预测分歧度越大;（3）企业战略差异度越大,分析师跟踪人数越少。进一步研究还发现：国有产权会削弱战略差异度对分析师盈余预测准确度和跟踪人数的不利影响。     

Earnings disaggregation and analysts＇ forecasts

Accounting concepts dictate that separately disclosed components should contain separate useful information. This paper examines the relations between income statement components and analysts＇ earnings forecasts and forecast errors. Regressions explaining earnings forecasts using earnings components provide a better fit than regression using just aggregate income to explain forecasts. We interpret this as consistent with the hypothesis that analysts use incremental information in components not available in aggregate income. However, additional tests based on predictability of forecast errors indicate that analysts do not incorporate all information available in components into earnings forecasts. In addition, this inefficiency appears to increase at longer forecast horizons.     

Improvements onthe Earnings Forecast Model——Based on Correlation between Financial Ratio, Auditor Opinion and Future Earnings

This paper aims to find evidence for the improvements on the present earnings forecast models through analyzing the correlation among financial ratios, auditor opinion of listed companies and their future earnings. This paper uses two statistical regression methods including Logistic model and Linear model to examine the inner interaction between financial ratios and future earnings from qualitative and quantitative perspectives respectively. Empirical tests find that financial ratios, especially ROE, can help to predict future earnings. Then we add auditor opinion variable into Logistic model to test whether going concern opinion in the auditor reports can be helpful for earnings forecast. Result shows the degree of optimistic statement of going concern opinion is significantly correlated with future earnings but with the disturbance of earnings management.     

证券分析师跟踪:决定因素与经济后果

以会计信息的价值相关性模型为基础,探讨了分析师跟踪上市公司的决定因素及其对盈余信息价值相关性的影响。研究发现,分析师更倾向于选择盈余平滑程度较高且盈余操纵较少的公司。在分析师市场形成后,投资者将分析师的预测作为估计公司未来盈利的主要依据;对没有分析师跟踪的公司,投资者仍然倾向于运用以往的盈利作为公司未来盈利预测基础。     

Earnings forecasts in enterprise information systems environment

With the globalisation and integration of world financial markets, the application of enterprise information systems has become more and more popular in the financial service sector. This paper examines the analyst's decision regarding allocation of effort to the precision and timeliness of earnings forecasts with financial decision support systems. Once an analyst decides to follow a firm, the analyst must choose the level of effort to devote to generating outputs, such as earnings forecasts. This paper provides insights into this by examining three issues concerning the forecasts of the individual analyst. First, forecast accuracy and frequency are modelled simultaneously. Then, whether these two effort allocation choices are complements or substitutes is tested. Finally, how competition affects these two characteristics is examined. The accuracy and frequency are examined with simultaneous equations. Results from this analysis suggest that analysts allocate effort among these two forecast criteria in a complementary way. Finally, empirical results reveal a positive association between competition and forecast frequency by the individual analyst. However, a significant association between competition and the individual analyst's forecast accuracy is not found.     

证券分析师业绩预测和投资评级准确性实证分析

文章以国内证券分析师业的业绩预测和投资评级为研究对象,从投资评级的准确性、投资建议赢利性、业绩预测误差及其来源等几个方面进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,证券分析师的投资建议无论在短期还是中长期均不能产生显著的超额收益,业绩预测误差是导致投资评级失误的原因之一,而业绩预测误差主要源于分析师对公司层面信息的错误判断。     

会计政策选择研究述评

会计政策选择是财务会计研究的重要内容。目前会计政策选择研究主要集中在上市公司的会计政策选择，采用规范研究、实证研究的方法对会计政策选择的原因、影响因素、动机、经济后果等进行研究。本文主要对国内外会计政策选择研究状况进行述评，以期为会计政策选择研究提供参考。     

The effect of earnings forecast precision on firm value and insider trading under voluntary disclosure in Taiwan

Taiwan changed its earnings forecast policy from mandatory to voluntary disclosure in 2005. In this study, the inferences of voluntary earnings forecast are examined based on forecasts issued by listed firms. This study suspects that insiders have a temptation to strategically manipulate financial forecast information to influence markets and thus receive extra rents. Under the new earnings forecast disclosure policy, the number of disclosing firm decreases but the precision of earnings forecast increases. The empirical result from dynamic panel data evidences the forecast error of voluntary disclosure may negatively impact firm values. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between insiders＇ trading profit and manipulation of earnings forecasts. As volatility in insider manipulation increases, it is difficult for the investors to predict the real intention of insiders, and insiders may achieve greater benefits from trading. This study also observes that many listed companies hold investor conferences to provide earnings guidance in Taiwan. The reason may be that investor conference is more flexible and has less forecast error cost than the formal financial forecast. This study provides important insights into earnings forecast policy in emerging markets. The competent authority should improve corporate governance and develop monitoring functions to abate forecast manipulation.     

衍生金融工具会计：国际比较与中国对策

本文回顾了近二十年来国际衍生全融工具会计的演进，分析了现行衍生金融工具会计的制度性缺陷，介绍了美国财务会计准则委员会（FASB）及国际会计准则委员会（IASB）封衍生金融工具会计进行改革的最新动向，提出了关于我国衍生金融工具会计制度建设的若干政策性建议。     

信息分享对原始设备制造商与其合同制造商竞争的影响

研究了原始设备制造商的预测信息分享对一个原始设备制造商和一个与其同时有合作和竞争的合同制造商组成的供应链系统的影响,建立制造商间信息分享的模型,该模型包括一个原始设备制造商和一个合同制造商。研究发现,原始设备制造商关于市场潜在需求预测信息的分享对其预期利润是不利的,同时需求信息预测的精度对原始设备制造商信息分享的决策也有影响,原始设备制造商没有动机与其供应链成员进行信息分享,但信息分享使得供应链整体利润增加。最后,建立一个信息分享补偿机制分享供应链利润的增加量,以期通过信息分享补偿机制促使原始设备制造商有动机进行信息分享,从而实现其与合同制造商的“双赢”。     

定向增发下证券分析师评级乐观性研究

定向增发是目前上市公司股权再融资的重要手段,受到了资本市场的广泛关注。以我国2013—2015年A股市场的定向增发股票为研究样本,分别从外部环境影响角度和分析师自身角度实证分析分析师股票评级乐观性倾向的影响因素,结果表明：承销关系、分析师声誉和分析师盈利预测的乐观性与分析师评级乐观性正相关,而声誉高、规模大的券商以及分析师的努力程度则会对其评级的乐观倾向产生反向抑制作用。分析师评级报告发布日距定增报告公布日的时间间隔也会对分析师评级乐观性产生负向影响,但这种影响并不显著。     

会计信息化促使科研单位财务管理的三大转变

在中国会计改革与开放30年之际,回顾科研单位会计信息化的发展历程,深入分析会计信息化建设给财务管理带来的变化,展望今后会计信息化建设,促进科研单位会计管理现代化。     

声誉激励、财务重述与审计费用

选取2001—2016年深沪两市主板上市公司为研究样本,实证检验财务重述对审计费用的影响。结果表明：财务重述与审计费用显著正相关,发生财务重述的公司审计费用显著高于没有财务重述的公司;发生财务重述的公司具有变更事务所和购买审计意见的动机倾向,行业竞争激烈加剧了事务所间的恶意竞争,事务所有可能蓄意降低审计费用招揽有财务重述的低端公司客户;由于声誉激励效应,声誉良好的大规模事务所对财务重述的公司所收取的审计费用显著升高,形成事务所竞争的“马太效应”。     

The Audit Opinion of Earnings Management in Listed Companies of China

The paper testes the relationship between audit opinions and financial sensitive zones and accounts on the basis of the data of A-share companies in China. The author finds that when ROE of listed companies is in the small-profit zone or in the large-loss zone, the probabilities that they get modified audit opinions increase. But the right-offering zone, accrual accounts and accounts below the line have no significant effects on the modified audit opinions. Besides, the author also finds that the ratio of accounts receivable to asset, debt ratio, previous year＇s audit opinion and change of CPA firms have significant positive effects on the modified audit opinions, while the ratio of major business revenue and size of companies have no notable effects. Some other factors such as cash ratio, age of the listing and CPA firm ranking have no consistent and continuous effects.     

A cross‐country study on the relationship between financial development and earnings management

This study investigates whether a country's level of financial development is associated with earnings management in an international setting. Financial development is likely to heighten the monitoring and scrutiny of accounting numbers because of strengthened investor protection laws and regulations as well as sophisticated market participants. Therefore, we first hypothesize that both accrual‐based and real earnings management decrease with greater financial development. However, research shows that managers tend to apply real earnings management, instead of accrual‐based earnings management, under strict accounting standards, regulations, and close auditor scrutiny. Thus, we explore the alternative hypothesis that accrual‐based earnings management decreases but real earnings management increases along with higher financial development. We examine the relationship between financial development and both types of earnings management using 56,830 observations in 37 countries covering the period 2009–2012. The results indicate that both types of earnings management are more restrained under higher levels of financial development.     

Neural network forecasting of quarterly accounting earnings

This study uses an artificial neural network model to forecast quarterly accounting earnings for a sample of 296 corporations trading on the New York stock exchange. The resulting forecast errors are shown to be significantly larger (smaller) than those generated by the parsimonious Brown-Rozeff and Griffin-Watts (Foster) linear time series models, bringing into question the potential usefulness of neural network models in forecasting quarterly accounting earnings. This study confirms the conjecture by Chatfield and Hill et al. that neural network models are context sensitive. In particular, this study shows that neural network models are not necessarily superior to linear time series models even when the data are financial, seasonal and non-linear.     

改进企业现行财务报告体系研究

企业现行财务报告的信息含量不够完备，信息披露不够及时，披露方式不够完善。本文在剖析现行企业财务报告局限性的前提下，提出了改进建议。     

上市公司财务报告补充更正问题研究

近几年来,我国上市公司发布财务报告补充更正公告的现象已经相当普遍。本文通过对1999至2003年期间A股上市公司发布的所有定期财务报告(包括年报和半年报)的补充、更正公告进行实证分析发现,频繁补充说明的事项几乎涉及上市公司各个方面,反映了财务信息的披露仍然存在很多不规范和随意性；而频繁更正的事项中有一半以上都与利润相关,可见这一问题背后可能隐藏着部分上市公司利用财务补充更正公告粉饰财务信息的恶意行为。这些行为不仅有损上市公司信息披露的质量和规范,也反映了市场监管的漏洞。为此,本文最后提出了几点政策建议。