The European Market Abuse Directive: Has it Worked?

In this paper, we examine whether the Market Abuse Directive (MAD) has been effective in achieving its objectives of deterring the market manipulation activities, increasing the timeliness of information and decreasing the disclosure of inside information to select groups. Our sample consists of firms listed on Frankfurt Stock Exchange. We use stock prices and analysts' forecast‐based proxies to examine the impact and effectiveness of MAD. The analysis based on these two set of proxies provides evidence that the adoption of MAD has been effective. In particular, we find that after the implementation of MAD, on average, (1) the volatility of stock prices around earnings announcement declines, (2) stock prices remain closer to their post earnings announcement level during the period before earnings announcement, (3) the accuracy of analyst forecasts improves, (4) the dispersion of analyst forecasts decreases, and (5) the number of analysts following a company declines.     

The Stewardship Role of Analyst Forecasts,and Discretionary Versus Non-discretionary Accruals

We examine the interaction between discretionary and non-discretionary accruals in a stewardship setting. Contracting includes multiple rounds of renegotiation based on contractible accounting information and non-contractible but more timely non-accounting information. We show that accounting regulation aimed at increasing earnings quality from a valuation perspective (earnings persistence) may have a significant impact on how firms rationally respond in terms of allowing accrual discretion in order to alleviate the impact on the stewardship role of earnings. Increasing the precision of more timely non-accounting information (analyst earnings forecasts) increases the ex ante value of the firm and reduces costly earnings management. There is an optimal level of reversible non-discretionary accrual noise introduced through revenue recognition policies. Tight rules-based accounting regulation, as opposed to leaving firms more choice over non-discretionary accrual policies, may lead firms to rationally respond by inducing costly earnings management. More generally, regulating both earnings persistence and the tightness of admissible auditing policies may not result in less equilibrium earnings management.     

Dissemination of Accruals Information,Role of Semi‐Annual Reporting,and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Evidence from Japan

Our study investigates the effects of dissemination of accounting accruals information on stock prices using Japanese annual reports as our sample. We conduct month‐by‐month detailed analyses of price adjustment behavior with a particular focus on revisions of analysts' earnings forecasts and changes in trading volume around the period of upcoming semi‐annual reports. We find that analysts' forecasts are often revised around this time, and analysts use this as auxiliary information. In addition, an accompanying re‐adjustment of abnormal returns and an increase in trading volume are observed. Our findings demonstrate that informational uncertainty initially triggered by the announcement of annual reports decreases as semi‐annual reports are disclosed and analysts change their earnings forecasts, and confirms the importance of semi‐annual reporting.     

Analysts' utilization of historical earnings information

This study examines whether security analysts (in)efficiently utilize the information contained in past series of annual and quarterly earnings in producing earnings forecasts. To do so, it investigates whether equal-weighted combinations of security analysts' forecasts with forecasts from statistical models based on historical earnings are superior, both in terms of being a better surrogate for the market's expectations of earnings and of accuracy, to forecasts from either one of these two sources. The empirical findings indicate that, although analysts' forecasts are superior to forecasts from statistical models, performance can be improved—both in terms of accuracy and also of being a better surrogate for market earnings expectations—by combining analysts' forecasts with forecasts from statistical models based on past quarterly earnings. Improvements in proxying for market earnings expectations were obtained even when analysts' forecasts made in June of the forecast year were used in the combinations. An implication of these findings is that investors can improve their investment decisions by using an average of the mean analysts' forecasts and the forecast produced by a time-series model of quarterly earnings in their investment decisions.     

The pricing accuracy of alternative equity valuation models: Scandinavian evidence

In many decision contexts, there is a need for benchmark equity valuations, based on simplified modeling and publicly available information. Prior research on U.S. data however shows that the accuracy of such valuation models can be low and sensitive to the choice of model specifications and value driver predictions. In this paper, we test the applicability and pricing accuracy of three fundamental valuation (dividend discount, residual income, and abnormal earnings growth) models, all based on forecasts of company dividends, earnings, and/or equity book values. Extending prior research, we apply these models to Scandinavian firms with accounting data from the period 2005–2014, explicitly testing two approaches for the prediction of the value drivers—exogenously forecasted numbers versus projected historical numbers. Given access to the forecasted value drivers, the dividend discount model comes out as the most accurate valuation model. In particular, this holds in a comparison between the most parsimonious model specifications. The residual income valuation model generates the best pricing accuracy given the prediction of value drivers based on historical financial numbers. Notably, we observe pricing errors that in general are lower than what has been reported in prior U.S.‐based research for the dividend discount and the residual income valuation models. The pricing accuracy of the abnormal earnings growth models is surprisingly weak in the Scandinavian setting. However, these models improve somewhat after a couple of complexity adjustments, in particular with value driver predictions based on the projected history setting.     

Analysts' Forecasts in Asian-Pacific Markets: The Relationship among Macroeconomic Factors, Accounting Systems, Bias and Accuracy

In this study, we describe determinants of accuracy/bias of analysts' forecasts in 13 economies of the Asian‐Pacific region. Examination of the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts allows us to judge how accounting systems and macroeconomic distinctions in this region affect earnings predictability. As many investors rely on analysts' earnings forecasts instead of producing their own, the growth of international investment means forecasts in non‐US markets will become increasingly important to investors worldwide. Using a sample of firms with data available on Global Vantage and I/B/E/S International, we find that the analysts on average have a pessimistic bias in Asian‐Pacific markets. We examine whether macroeconomic factors explain part of the difference in the size of analyst forecast errors, using the global competitiveness rankings of the World Economic Forum (WEF). We expect that those nations which are more open to foreign trade and investment and are ranked more highly by the WEF in its Global Competitiveness Index will also have more accurate analyst forecasts, as increased global competitiveness demands greater integration into the world economy, and such integration should lead to more transparent financial statements and more accurate earnings forecasts. Our findings are consistent with this prediction. We also find that countries with low book‐tax conformity have more accurate earnings forecasts.     

The Usefulness of Earnings and Book Value for Equity Valuation in Emerging Capital Markets: Evidence From Listed Companies in the People's Republic of China

This paper examines the relative value relevance in equity valuation of two sets of accounting information of listed Chinese companies which issued the so-called B shares to foreign investors on the Chinese stock exchanges. These firms are required to prepare two sets of financial statements: one based on China's accounting regulations (domestic GAAPs) and the other based on International Accounting Standards (IASs). The study adopted the Ohlson (1995) model and used the Davidson-MacKinnon J-test to assess which one of these two competing sets of accounting information is more closely associated with the share prices. The results showed that earnings and book value reported based on IASs have greater information content than those based on domestic GAAPs. The results of yearly regression analysis generally suggested that the explanatory power of these earnings and book values for share prices increased over time.     

Earnings Benchmarks and the Information Content of Quarterly Foreign Earnings of U.S. Multinational Companies

The meeting of earnings benchmarks is considered important for investors. The chief financial officers of U.S. companies state that the three most important earnings thresholds to meet are the earnings in the same quarter last year, the analysts' earnings forecast for the current quarter, and zero earnings. These earnings benchmarks have been defined in terms of total earnings. For U.S. multinational firms, total earnings consist primarily of domestic earnings and foreign earnings. We conduct an event study where we examine (1) the stock market reaction to meeting or beating quarterly domestic and foreign earnings benchmarks and (2) the market reaction to the changes in quarterly domestic and foreign earnings, while we control for meeting or beating the analysts' earnings forecast and the analysts' earnings forecast surprise. We find that the quarterly financial statement disclosure of domestic and foreign earnings under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 131 supplies investors with valuable information that was not previously disseminated through financial analysts or other sources. The stock market reaction to meeting or beating foreign earnings from the same quarter in the prior year is stronger than the market reaction to meeting or beating domestic earnings from the same quarter in the prior year.     

担保网络影响分析师盈余预测偏差吗？

以2008—2018年沪深A股上市公司为研究对象,采用社会网络分析法考察上市公司担保网络对分析师盈余预测的影响。研究发现,上市公司加入担保网络会显著增加分析师盈余预测偏差,降低预测准确度,这种负面效应在双向担保、跨省融资担保、长期处于担保网络以及位于担保网络结构洞位置的上市公司中更加明显,而上市公司选择退出担保网络则有效降低了这种负面影响,提高了分析师盈余预测准确度。进一步研究发现,会计信息可比性是担保网络影响分析师盈余预测偏差的一条重要作用路径。调节效应分析结果显示,高质量的内部控制、良好的公司治理等内部治理机制与媒体监督、机构投资者治理等外部治理机制均能够有效降低担保网络上市公司对分析师盈余预测偏差的消极影响。研究结果有助于进一步梳理企业间复杂关系对资本市场信息传递效率的影响,为资本市场各方参与者有效缓解担保网络的消极影响提供了经验证据与政策方向。     

Value relevance and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s

During the dot-com bubble of the 1990s, equity market valuation was a popular topic for investors, financial analysts and academics. Some questioned whether traditional accounting and financial information had lost its value relevance, as stocks traded at multiples of earnings well in excess of historic levels, leading Alan Greenspan to caution against “irrational exuberance.” This study examines the relation between market valuation and traditional accounting/financial information before, during and after the bubble. We confirm previous research that documents a decline in the relation between market value and traditional accounting information leading up to the bubble period. However, we also document that after the collapse of the bubble in 2000 this trend reverses. We also examine two related metrics that may provide a rational explanation for this phenomenon, including the quality of earnings, and the aggressiveness of financial analysts’ forecasts, finding some support that earnings quality may contribute to the changes in value relevance, but not the aggressiveness of analyst forecasts.     

The Use of Valuation Models by UK Investment Analysts

This paper examines the use of valuation models by UK investment analysts. The study is based on, first, semi-structured interviews with 35 sell-side analysts from 10 leading investment banks and with 7 buy-side analysts from 3 asset management firms and, second, content analysis based on 98 equity research reports for FTSE-100 companies covered by the sell-side interviewees. We observe that analysts perceive the discounted cash flow (DCF) (and to some extent ‘sophisticated’ models in general) to have become significantly more important than prior survey evidence suggests, although we also find the (somewhat paradoxical) continued importance of ‘unsophisticated’ valuation multiples, notably the price/earnings ratio (PE). We find perceived limitations in the technical applicability of the DCF, which cause analysts to rely in practice upon valuation multiples and subjective judgement of whether the market price ‘feels right’. We also find that contextual factors, notably the analysts' need for their research to be credible to buy-side clients, cause the use of subjective, unsophisticated methods of valuation to be played down. Given the inherent flexibility of the DCF model, coupled with its ostensible credibility, it becomes the natural vehicle for conveying the analyst's research, even though it is very rarely relied upon to determine target prices and investment recommendations. We conclude that, while the literature has focused on the technical merits of alternative valuation models, analysts' actual usage of valuation models also requires an understanding of social and economic context and motivations.     

IFRS and Secrecy: Assessing Accounting Value Relevance Across Africa

We examine the value relevance of accounting across several African countries and test whether IFRS improved the value association of earnings and equity book values. We report a stronger valuation association between accounting and stock prices in African countries classified as having a secrecy culture. This increases after IFRS and more so for earnings. On the other hand, IFRS induced a stronger increase in the book value coefficient in the less secretive and more developed South African market. We surmise that the more conceptual focus of IFRS induced an increased demand for higher‐quality accounting professionals, which had a filtering‐down effect of improving quality information flow and breaking down the secrecy culture. Our research highlights the diverse impacts of IFRS and the role of culture, asset markets and accounting professionalism, in driving the relevance of accounting components across Africa.     

The Information Content of Earnings Components: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market

China's listed firms report substantial non-operating revenues and expenses. We argue that these non-core earnings should have different properties and different valuation implications than operating or core earnings. Furthermore, the different types of firm ownership may have differential impacts on the information content of earnings components. Based on data from 1996 to 2008, we find that core earnings are more persistent than non-core earnings. Because of this, core earnings have a greater association with contemporaneous stock returns. However, the stock market does not fully incorporate all the information in earnings; we find that core earnings are undervalued and non-core earnings are overvalued. This effect is much reduced for privately controlled listed firms. We develop an investment trading strategy to exploit these market inefficiencies.     

股权质押影响分析师盈利预测吗？——基于上市公司与分析师互动行为的证据研究

基于上市公司与分析师互动的证据,从与分析师互动的频率和互动分析师的声誉两个维度出发,探索了控股股东股权质押影响分析师盈利预测质量的路径。研究发现：（1）控股股东股权质押降低了分析师盈利预测准确度,提高了盈利预测乐观度和盈利预测分歧度;（2）股权质押通过与分析师互动影响其盈利预测质量;（3）在剥离互动分析师声誉的影响后,股权质押的上市公司通过与分析师频繁地互动直接影响其盈利预测质量;（4）股权质押通过互动分析师声誉模式直接影响其盈利预测质量。异质性检验发现,股权质押控股股东持股比例高、股权质押率高、股权质押到期日临近、上市公司主动性强、基金公司重仓持股将进一步加剧股权质押对分析师盈利预测的影响。     

An Investigation of Stock Price Declines Following Corporate Financing Events: Further Evidence

Prior research documents a large downward drift in stock prices following issuances of debt and equity by US firms. We conduct tests based on both stock price and trading volume to provide evidence on the reasons for this apparent market anomaly. We document evidence of earnings management through accruals prior to external financing and lower operating performance afterward that is associated with the amount of capital raised. The earnings management that precedes external financing and the amount of capital raised are associated with both the post-financing decline in stock price and trading volume around earnings announcements that follow for a period of three years. This evidence is consistent with the proposition that firms raise external capital prior to predictable declines in their operating performance and they release upward biased earnings before these events to manage investor expectations. The failure of many investors to incorporate this information into their trading decisions in a timely manner consistent with limited attention and over-confidence appears to drive stock mispricing. Our evidence does not support the conjecture that the financing anomaly is primarily a statistical artifact or that it is a manifestation of the accrual anomaly.     

Variations in the Financial Reporting Environment and Earnings Forecasting

This paper examines variations in the financial reporting environment internationally. In particular, I investigate the relation between variations in accounting‐related institutional factors (choice, accrual accounting and enforcement) and the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. Controlling for firm‐ and country‐level factors, I document that the extent of choice among accounting methods is associated with lower forecast accuracy. This finding is consistent with analysts' performance suffering from the increased task complexity (and/or managers using flexibility for purposes other than to provide information). The degree of prescribed accrual accounting is positively correlated with forecast accuracy, consistent with both accruals providing useful information and with the smoothing function of accruals. Enforcement of accounting standards is positively related with forecast accuracy, suggesting that enforcement encourages managers to follow prescribed rules, which, in turn, reduces analysts' uncertainty. Finally, I examine whether the roles of accrual accounting and choice vary with the level of enforcement. Although univariate tests support these interaction hypotheses, multivariate tests do not.     

Stale and Scale Effects in Markets-Based Accounting Research: Evidence from the Valuation of Dividends

Abstract

This study revisits prior research on the valuation of dividends in an accounting-based valuation framework. Using a battery of tests, we show that market value deflation is essential in market-based tests of dividend displacement and signalling because it controls for ‘stale’ information in addition to scale (size) differences across firms. For US firms, we show that after controlling for ‘stale’ information, the empirical association between dividends and market values switches from positive to negative. This switch is not explained by scale differences across firms. Further, we show that after controlling for staleness, the valuation of dividends remains positive for European firms. This result is explained by the relatively stronger association of dividends with future earnings in these settings (i.e. signalling). Lastly, our country-specific estimates of dividend valuation provide a potentially valuable index for studies aimed at examining the effects of accounting and securities regulation on information asymmetries in an international context.     

Global Market Segmentation and Patterns in Stock Market Reaction to US Earnings Announcements: Further Evidence

The purpose of this study is to investigate why the information content of US earnings announcements of non‐US firms cross‐listing in the US varies with the degree of capital market segmentation in the cross‐listing firms' countries of domicile. My evidence shows that indirect barriers to investing (i.e., accounting rules and liquidity differences) rather than direct investment barriers (i.e., investment restrictions) mainly account for this difference. After controlling for the level of accounting disclosure in a firm's country of domicile, I do not observe a systematic difference in the size of market's reaction to earnings announcements depending on the degree of market segmentation in the firm's country of domicile. This study contributes to the literature by providing evidence that accounting disclosure plays an important role in the integration of global capital markets.     

Firm Characteristics and the Pricing of Foreign Earnings of US Multinational Firms

Prior research finds a positive relation between current changes in foreign earnings of USmultinational firms and future stock returns. The cause of this relation is either (1) investors' mispricing of securities by underestimating the persistence of foreign earnings or (2) research design misspecifications (e.g., the researcher failing to control for cross‐sectional differences in risk). The purpose of this study is to determine which of these two competing explanations is more likely. If the anomalous results are due to market mispricing, then the anomalous results should be more pronounced for firms that are followed by fewer well‐informed, sophisticated investors and for firms that have foreign earnings that are more persistent than domestic earnings. If the anomaly is related to research design misspecification, then the existence of the anomaly is not expected to vary across these firm characteristics. The results are more consistent with the market mispricing hypothesis. Predicting the existence of the foreign earnings anomaly based on these firm‐specific characteristics increases our understanding of the true nature of the anomaly. In addition, relating the foreign earnings anomaly to firm‐specific characteristics provides relevant information to investors for firm valuation and helps to promote future academic research in the market's valuation of multinational firms' operations.     

Valuation and Forecasting Roles of Dividends of Indonesian Listed Firms

We study the role of dividends in valuation and in forecasting future earnings in a low‐protection environment with highly concentrated ownership that is expected to yield low earnings quality. Using a sample of 372 distinct Indonesian firms listed on the IDX during the period 1995 to 2012 we show that dividends are reliably positively priced by the capital market, violating thus the dividend displacement theorem. This result persists even after controlling for some typical factors that affect firm value (capital structure, risk) and the effect of factors not separately identified, but priced by the Indonesian capital market (other information). Dividends replace accounting earnings entirely in valuation. Dividends are positively correlated to future earnings over and above current accounting earnings and other accounting and market variables. Both findings show that dividends play a central role on the Indonesian capital market. Finally, we show evidence consistent with the view that earnings management of Indonesian firms after 2002 is contractually efficient rather than opportunistic.