Export diversification,margins and economic growth at industrial level: Evidence from Thailand

This paper examines the relationship between export diversification, export margins and economic growth at the industry level using Thailand as a case study during 2002–16. Our results show that the effects of export diversification and margins on economic growth vary across industries. Export diversification helps boost growth only in some sectors, including electronics, automotive and chemicals, plastic and rubber, while in the processed food, and textiles and apparel industries, specialisation matters more in promoting growth. In almost all industries, a non-linear relationship between diversification and economic growth is not revealed, except in textiles and apparel. The diversification is crucial in enhancing the impact of exports on growth only in the processed food and textiles and apparel industries. Expansion of intensive margins plays an important role in boosting growth in key industries within Thailand. The role of extensive margins, both in terms of new products and new market destinations, in promoting economic growth is limited. For extensive margins (new products), it is found to be significant in boosting economic growth only in processed food and textiles and apparel, while in the case of extensive margins (new market destinations), its significance in boosting growth is revealed only in the electronics sector.     

Export externalities and economic growth

Feder formulated the first model with an explicit mechanism connecting international trade and economic growth. We present new econometric estimates of this unique model for 30 developing countries studied by Feder. We replicate Feder's 1964?–?73 cross-section estimates for 1974?–?83 and 1984?–?93 and find that the export variables lose significance and that the model has less explanatory power overall. We also try to improve on time-series estimates by Ram and find that the coefficient of Feder's total factor productivity differential in favour of the export sector was positive and significant for 18 of the 30 countries. The export externality coefficient proved to be positive and significant in 13 countries although significant multicollinearity occurs in the regressions for eight of the 13. Comparisons of the results among countries suggest that the impact of exports on growth depends on population size, trade orientation, and the importance of manufacturing.     

Causality nexus of exports,FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis

This paper analyzes the causal relationships between exports, FDI and economic growth among the ASEAN5 countries. We have used a three-stage procedure based on unit root, co-integration and causality tests applied to the panel data from 1981 to 2013. The results reveal that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between FDI and growth in the long run, while there is a unidirectional causal relationship from FDI to exports in the short run. Our results also confirm that the export-led growth (ELG) and FDI-led growth hypotheses hold true in the long and short run. To reinforce the FDI inflows, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers, and increase the sophistication of quality exports to compete in the global market. This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the ASEAN5 economies using panel analysis.     

技术创新、生产效率和出口多样化与中国制造业出口竞争力

本文将出口质量指数纳入制造业出口竞争力的评价指标体系,基于中国海关数据库,利用熵权法估算了中国制造业细分行业的出口竞争力,并利用中国2000~2013年制造业行业面板数据研究了技术创新对中国制造业出口竞争力的影响,着重分析了其影响渠道。研究发现,在控制内生性和其他因素的影响后,技术创新对中国制造业出口竞争力有显著正向影响,进一步研究发现,技术创新通过行业生产效率和出口多样化影响出口竞争力提升。区分技术创新投入和产出后发现,行业技术创新产出对出口竞争力的影响依然显著。另外,动态模型的估计是最有效率的。区分不同类型的行业后发现,重型制造业、同质性制造业以及中等技术类型行业的技术创新显著促进行业出口竞争力提升。     

Export diversification,specialisation and inequality: Evidence from Asian and Western countries

This paper examines the dynamic effect of globalization at the disaggregated level of sectoral export diversification and manufacturing specialization on income inequality using a panel data set of 52 Asian and Western countries from 1988 to 2014. The paper uses dynamic panel data models applying the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations that provide more accurate and better results than those obtained with static panel data models. The results suggest that there is no statistically significant relationship between manufacturing specialization and inequality while sectoral export diversification has been the driving force of inequality. For sub-groups of countries, higher sectoral export diversification increases inequality and higher manufacturing specialization decreases inequality in high-income Asian countries and European Union (EU) member states. Moreover, the study finds insignificant effects in low-income Asian countries and Anglo-Saxon countries.     

Export product range and economic growth in the EU countries

We analyse the number of different HS8 products in the EU countries’ exports in 1995–2015. We review what share, or coverage, of the total possible number of these products the countries have exported each year. The EU15 countries have typically witnessed a slow rise in this coverage rate, that is, a widening of their extensive margins. The exception is Finland where the share has declined considerably. On the other hand, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and the new member countries have seen a dramatic increase in their export product coverage. We analyse how the development in the coverage rate and, as a comparison, the diversification of exports as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman index are associated with GDP per capita growth. We find that changes in the former measure are positively associated with economic growth after we have controlled for GDP per capita catching‐up as well as investment and export activity. We also find that smaller EU economies do not specialise more than large ones in their exports as could perhaps be assumed.     

Economic growth,trade and capital flows: A causal analysis of post-liberalised South Africa

Development Finance and EconometricsThis paper investigates the causal relationships between trade, capital inflows and economic growth in post-liberalised South Africa over the period from 1995 to 2011. The results show that economic growth in South Africa is driven primarily by trade and fixed investment rather than by capital inflows. However, the relationship between economic growth and imports is bidirectional, and thus economic growth in South Africa is associated to a greater extent with the export-led growth hypothesis than the import-led growth hypothesis. In addition, the results find in favour of growth-led FDI rather than FDI-led growth, and that portfolio inflows rather than FDI are integrated into the country's trade-led growth dynamics.     

Density of local cadres and regional economic performance: Evidence from China

In this study, we investigated the effect of the present‐day density of local cadres on economic performance in Chinese prefecture‐level cities. Adjusting for common control variables, our estimates show that local cadre density has a significantly positive effect on regional economic performance. This result holds when we employ the local cadre density in 1949, when the Chinese Communist Party assumed power, to instrument for the current local cadre density. We also tested the channels through which local cadres play a role in regional economic development. Our empirical results show that a high local cadre density has a significant effect on attracting economic resources, which promotes regional economic performance.     

National Security Export Control Regimes: Determinants and Effects on International Business

Countries restrict exports for a number of reasons ranging from national security, foreign policy to the preservation of scarce resources. Most of the restrictions are imposed on military and high‐technology products. This article focuses on national security controls exercised on dual‐use goods, that is, commercial products with current or potential military applications. The article develops a typology of paradigms for national export control regimes: high state–low business, low state–high business, high state–high business, and low state–low business. It then introduces a theoretical model of the economic and political determinants and effects of such paradigms. The study presents national case studies and examines the effects of the four paradigms on international business. The article fills important gaps in our understanding of national export control regimes and their implications for managers of international business firms. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A Note on Firm Age and the Margins of Exports: First Evidence from Germany

This article uses a new tailor-made data set to empirically investigate the link between firm age and the extensive and intensive margins of exports for the first time for Germany. Results turn out to be fully in line with theoretical considerations. Older firms are more often exporters, export more and more different goods to more different destination countries, and export to more distant destination markets.     

Market knowledge: Evidence from importers

Previous firm‐level literature established that there are substantial costs of entry into new export markets. Chaney (The American Economic Review, 104, 2014, 3600) opens the black‐box of entry costs by building a dynamic network model of international trade where firms acquire customers in new destinations through their existing customers in other destinations. Following his conjecture, this paper examines whether firms use their existing suppliers in a destination to find their first clients in those markets. I use a disaggregated data set on Turkish firms' exports and imports for the 2003–08 period, and investigate the effect of import experience on export entry. By identifying import experience using instrumental variables, and shutting down productivity channels with firm‐year fixed effects, I find that having a supplier in the destination country raises the probability of starting to export to that country by 5.5 percentage points on average, revealing a “market knowledge” phenomenon. The paper's main contribution to the literature is finding that firms' country‐specific import experience increases the likelihood of export‐market entry. Digging further to explore heterogeneous effects, I find that this effect does not exist when trading with low‐income countries, but it increases with the destination country's size, proximity, language similarity and the size of its Turkish immigrant community. Moreover, the strength of the firm's relationship with its supplier as proxied by several variables such as the share of imported products that are differentiated increases the probability of export‐market entry.     

Geographic export diversification: Determinants and their link with export performance

This study examines company‐specific factors that may help explain the choice of an export‐market strategy and explores how the selected export strategy contributes to explaining company's export performance (XP). Concentrating on a specific area within a broad spectrum of export behavior analysis has enabled us to examine these factors in greater depth. The results of our research, which was carried out using a sample comprising Spanish exporting companies, show a firm's size, a firm's age, and a firm's greater foreign ownership in its share capital are all determining factors for adopting a strategy geared to export‐market diversification. A greater level of investment in R&D and greater international commitment are also important in this regard. We suggest reinforcing these two factors because there is evidence of a better XP among firms that have a wider range of foreign markets.     

Industrial policy,structural transformation and economic growth: Evidence from China

Industrial policy is an important means for governments to promote industrial development and accelerate economic growth. This paper mainly uses the Chinese Law and Regulation Database as the source of the relevant laws and regulations of China’s industrial policies from 2003 to 2015. On this basis, it empirically examines the impact of industrial policies on economic growth. The study finds that China’s industrial policy has significant positive effects on economic growth and that industrial structure rationalization is an important channel of industrial policy to improve economic growth. The findings are also valid under a series of robustness tests and endogenous corrections. The results of heterogeneity tests confirm that there are heterogeneous effects pertaining to industrial policy on economic growth among different subregional areas, administrative levels, industrial development stages, and industrial policy types. Overall, this paper supports the hypothesis that industrial policy has positive effects on economic growth and, accordingly, provides a basis for industrial policy implementation.     

Gender and Export Behaviour: Evidence from Women-Owned Enterprises

This article draws on the results of a qualitative, exploratory study of 20 Australian women business owners to demonstrate how using a ‹gender as social identity’ lens provides new insights into the influence of gender on exporting and entrepreneurial behaviour. Interview data reveal perceptions of gender identity and gender relations varied and influenced the interpretations which women business owners placed on their exporting activities. Women in the study used different terms to describe exporter and entrepreneurial characteristics to those found in extant literature. A strong theme was exporting as a life-changing experience that allowed the women to grow personally as well as grow the business and succeed as exporters.     

Distance from core competences and new export survival: Evidence from multi‐product exporters

We study the determinants of the survival of new export products of multi‐product firms. We use micro‐level data from Chile to estimate linear fixed‐effects and non‐linear survival models to show that a measure of “distance” between a firm's new export and its previous export basket is a negative and significant determinant of the survival of the new export, especially during its first year. Our interpretation of this finding is that exports further away from firms’ core competences have lower chances of survival in exports since it is more difficult for firms to achieve competitiveness in them. Our results suggest that country‐level diversification, at least through existing firms, should be gradual.     

Foreign aid and economic growth: evidence from Cambodia

This paper attempts to examine the growth impact of foreign aid in Cambodia over the period 1980–2014, using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The study also incorporates investment and trade openness into the model. The empirical findings show that trade openness has positive effects on growth in both the short run and the long run; investment has positively contributed to growth in the long run while foreign aid has positive impact on growth only for the short run. On the contrary, in the long run, it has negative impact on investment and growth. This can be suggested that dependence on foreign aid for long periods of time does not positively contribute to investment and growth in Cambodia. In order to achieve sustainable growth and enhanced industrialization, policy-makers should move from aid dependence to promote investments through elevating domestic and foreign capital in the country.     

金融发展与出口净技术复杂度:基于不同技术含量的实证分析

中国当前参与的全球化生产仍集中于技术含量较低的劳动密集型行业,该技术分工显示分析出口净技术复杂度尤为重要。本文测度了出口净技术复杂度水平并进行了国际比较,同时分析了其与金融发展的相关性,并基于金融发展对出口净技术复杂度的作用机制,选取商业银行相对集中度CONC指标及私人债券的市价总值占GDP的比重作为衡量金融发展特征的指标,引用行业外部金融依赖系数,进而实证分析了金融发展对总体行业及不同技术含量的行业出口净技术复杂度的差异性影响,发现金融发展对总体行业的影响符合理论预期,但对高及中高技术行业的出口净技术复杂度的正向效应稍弱,反映出中国当前仍以技术水平含量不高的低端产业为主,但正处于向高端产业迈进的过渡阶段。     

中国出口技术结构与经济增长的协整关系研究

本文采用修正的出口复杂度指数测算包括中国在内的48个国家(地区)的出口技术结构,根据中国1992~2013年的数据构建计量模型,实证分析出口技术结构和经济增长的关系。主要结论有:中国出口复杂度有一定程度的提升,但仍然落后于大多数发达国家,经济增长水平的散点分析也符合中国经济发展水平,因此中国并不存在"Rodrik悖论";通过协整分析表明出口技术结构的提升是经济增长的动力之一,但反之并不成立。对此本文提出政策建议以推动出口技术结构的升级优化。     

Tourism development,environmental pollution and economic growth: A theoretical analysis

We develop a two-sector dynamic model of a less-developed economy with an imported traded good sector and with a non-traded tourism service sector serving international tourists. Revenue earned from tourism finances imports. The model takes care of the negative effect of tourism development on environmental pollution. Environmental quality and capital stock accumulates over time. We analyse comparative steady-state effects and show that tourism development raises the level of capital stock as well as national income but lowers the quality of environment in the new steady-state equilibrium leading to a relative expansion (contraction) of the capital (labour) intensive non-tourism (tourism) sector. Pollution abatement policy produces a completely opposite effect; and so tourism development policies are to be accompanied by pollution abatement policies in order to ensure green growth.     

Trade policy,export expansion,human capital and growth

This paper empirically investigates the impact of trade policy on export expansion and on GDP growth in developing countries while controlling for the human capital stock and the initial level of development. By using a simultaneous system estimation we unite the approach found in the export expansion and growth literature with the approach found in papers that estimate the effect of trade policy on growth, while also making several improvements in the estimation of the underlying relationships. The results obtained from our estimation are more credible because of these improvements and therefore have stronger policy implications. We find that outward-oriented trade policies substantially and significantly impact growth in developing countries not only by directly enhancing exports but also through a feedback (or multiplier) effect.