Informality,tariffs and wealth

This article analyzes the interaction between changes in tariff protection, informality, inequality and aggregate income. First, we describe some new empirical evidence on informality, the formal/informal wage gap and trade openness in Latin American countries. Then we present a simple model characterized by three (empirically based) assumptions: (1) agents consume both formal and informal goods; (2) the government uses tariff revenues to purchase formal goods; (3) informality is a voluntary phenomenon. The model predicts that tariff reduction increases informality and wage inequality and that the maximization of income requires a positive level of tariff protection. The model's results are shown to be consistent with the empirical evidence concerning Latin American countries.     

Public inputs and land taxes in a small open economy

In this paper we examine the issues of gains from trade and the welfare effects of trade policies in the presence of public inputs. Based on the formulation of Negishi (Journal of Public Economics 2 (1973), 231–40), we assume that public inputs are financed by a land tax scheme. We show that the welfare effects of trade policies and the desirability of trade depend crucially on the rules of public input provision reflecting different conjectures of the government.     

Factor allocation,economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China

On the basis of development accounting techniques and a factor misallocation framework, we use panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2013 to assess how factor allocation affects economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China. In particular, we decompose economic growth into three parts, namely sector productivity (SP ), factor market efficiency (FME ) and factor endowment (FE ). We then conduct counterfactual analyses to investigate the short and long‐run roles of factor allocation in the income distribution across provinces. The results show that SP , FME and FE can explain 23%, 8.5% and 68.5% of economic growth, while labour, capital and energy reallocation account for aggregate productivity growth of about 47%, −4.8% and −0.1%. Furthermore, when the factors are efficiently allocated, transferring labour (capital, energy) from agriculture (service, industry) to the other sectors will increase the income per capita by 29.5% and 42.5% in the short and long term. Meanwhile, efficient factor allocation accounts for 32% and 29.7% of aggregate productivity and reduces the income variation across provinces by 25.5% and 23% in the short and long run, respectively.     

A dynamic analysis of the impacts of export taxes: The case of Argentinean soy and beef markets

Argentina plays an important role in the global soy market as one of the world's leading exporters of soy products. In an effort to shift its agricultural sector's focus to value‐added exports and to raise revenue, Argentina's government has maintained a regime of differential export taxes on soy products. In addition to soy products, Argentina is a major producer, consumer and exporter of beef. However, over the last decade it has relinquished much of its world market share as its beef exports have fallen because the government has periodically imposed a ban on exports of beef along with maintaining an export tax. As the soy and livestock sectors are inextricably linked, owing to both industries’ intensive land use and the utilisation of soymeal as a feed supplement for cattle, trade policies in one sector have pronounced cross‐sectoral impacts. This study develops a theoretical model of these different sectors and trade policies, incorporating the dynamic decisions of cattle stock management. The model is calibrated to real‐world data on the Argentinean economy, and the impacts of trade liberalisation are quantified. Key results show modelling the various intersectoral linkages and the dynamic implications of cattle stock is essential for obtaining accurate estimates.     

Tourism development,environmental pollution and economic growth: A theoretical analysis

We develop a two-sector dynamic model of a less-developed economy with an imported traded good sector and with a non-traded tourism service sector serving international tourists. Revenue earned from tourism finances imports. The model takes care of the negative effect of tourism development on environmental pollution. Environmental quality and capital stock accumulates over time. We analyse comparative steady-state effects and show that tourism development raises the level of capital stock as well as national income but lowers the quality of environment in the new steady-state equilibrium leading to a relative expansion (contraction) of the capital (labour) intensive non-tourism (tourism) sector. Pollution abatement policy produces a completely opposite effect; and so tourism development policies are to be accompanied by pollution abatement policies in order to ensure green growth.     

Entrepreneurship,economic development and institutions

This paper is an introduction to the special issue from the 3rd Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Research Conference held in Washington, D.C., in 2008. The paper has three objectives. First, to discuss the importance of the three stages of economic development, the factor-driven stage, the efficiency-driven stage and the innovation-driven stage. Second, to examine the empirical evidence on the relationship between stages of economic development and entrepreneurship. Third, to present a summary of the papers in the context of the theory.

Optimal pricing, production rate, and quality under learning effects

This study investigates the marketing and production problem for a monopolist firm where price, quality and production rate are simultaneous dynamic decision variables under the condition of a dynamic demand that depends on price, quality and cumulative sales. The formulated continuous profit maximization model follows the steps for dynamic optimization to derive optimal price, quality and production policies, wherein a unit production cost that decreases with cumulative production reflects the cost learning effect. Through the differentiable multiplicatively separable demand function, this study analyzes optimal trajectories for determining price, quality, and production rate. The results specify several optimal policies and policy makers would gain insight into the consequence of their decisions that otherwise might have been obscured by sub-optimal analysis.     

Quick and easy choice sets: Constructing optimal and nearly optimal stated choice experiments

In this paper we compare a number of common strategies for constructing discrete choice experiments. Two of the strategies, including one based on theoretical constructions for optimal discrete choice experiments, produce designs that are better than those that come about from random grouping and from using the L^MA construction. A simple account of this theoretical construction is given.     

Segmented asset markets and optimal exchange rate regimes

This paper revisits the issue of the optimal exchange rate regime in a flexible price environment. The key innovation is that we analyze this question in the context of environments where only a fraction of agents participate in asset market transactions (i.e., asset markets are segmented). Under this friction alternative exchange rate regimes have different implications for real allocations in the economy. In the context of this environment we show that flexible exchange rates are optimal under monetary shocks and fixed exchange rates are optimal under real shocks.     

基于经济增长的中国最优消费规模:1978—2006

中国长期实行"重投资、轻消费"的政策,消费率一直偏低。以限制消费为代价的经济增长不仅无法实现社会福利最大化和居民效用最大化,而且也是不可持续的。消费不足导致经济增长乏力,然而消费过度会导致投资不足从而阻碍经济增长,因此经济中存在最优的消费规模。在检验消费规模和经济增长关系的基础上,建立消费的内生增长模型,利用1978—2006年间29年的经验数据,求得中国消费率的最优值为66.46%,据以提出扩大消费以扩大内需、促进经济增长的政策建议。     

Fertility,intergenerational transfers and economic development

This paper develops a model of endogenous growth where agents are altruistic and value both the utilities of their parent and of their children. Individuals endogenously choose the number of their children, and arbitrate between financing education, leaving them some bequest and offering some gift to their parents. We establish the existence of three types of long run regime. Starting from a low level of human capital, an economy converges towards a stationary state associated with a constant output per worker, a high level of fertility and ascendant transfers. If the initial level of human capital is not too low, another stationary state jointly exists with a lower level of fertility and no transfer. Finally, starting from a high level of human capital, the economy experiences a steady growth of output per worker associated with a low fertility level and descendant transfers. We then assume that an economy is initially in the stationary underdevelopment regime with ascendant transfers, and we study the power of different policies to push the economy toward the growth regime. We successively consider a fertility control policy, an education subsidies policy, and the introduction of a pension system for the elderly.     

Free trade,protection and economic development

Central to the following discussion is the assertion that a foreign trade policy which maximizes the static efficiency gains from trade may result in reduced dynamic or X-efficiency and thus impair a developing country’s development potential. The dominant view of the relation between international specialization and economic development is summarized. An alternative line of argument is presented in outline. Finally, the implications for development policy are sketched.     

Culture, economic development, and national ethical attitudes

To understand the influence of culture on ethical attitudes, a variety of countries must be compared simultaneously to avoid confounding of cultural dimensions. This study uses data from the World Values Survey to develop a measure of ethical attitudes that shows partial measurement invariance across 44 countries. Regressing the resulting latent means on four cultural dimensions [Hofstede G. Culture's Consequences: comparing values, behaviors, institutions, and organizations across nations. 2nd ed. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 2001] and per capita gross domestic product (PCGDP) reveals effects that are not suggested by examining the predictors in isolation, and explains more variance than analysis of the raw means. However, the model does not account for ethical attitudes reported in Brazil, Japan, and the Philippines. In the remaining 41 countries, uncertainty avoidance, power distance, and PCGDP are found to have negative influences on national ethical attitudes.     

International trade policies,industrialization, and economic development

During the 1950s and 1960s, most developing nations, particularly the larger ones, strongly opted for a policy of import substitution industrialization (ISI). This was based on heavy protection and generally led to very inefficient industries. Since the early 1970s, an increasing number of developing countries deregulated their economies and liberalized trade, and this stimulated efficiency and growth. Some developing nations also tried strategic trade policies and to endogenize growth (as postulated by endogenous growth theory), but with only limited success. It seems impossible and inconsistent under the new international trade rules, however, for other developing countries to duplicate the East Asia “miracle,” which was based on strong government support for domestic industry while stimulating competition and efficiency among domestic firms. The successful completion of the Uruguay Round is expected to greatly benefit developing countries through continued deregulation and increased access to developed-country markets.     

Credit constraints, entrepreneurial talent, and economic development

In this paper, we formalize the view that economic development requires high rates of productive entrepreneurship, and this requires an efficient matching between entrepreneurial talent and production technologies. We first explore the role of financial development in promoting such efficient allocation of talent, which results in higher production, job creation, and social mobility. We then show how different levels of financial development may endogenously arise in a setting in which financial constraints depend on individual incentives to misbehave, these incentives depend on how many jobs are available, and this in turn depends on the level of financial development. Such complementarity between labor market and financial market development may generate highly divergent development paths even for countries with very similar initial conditions.     

Non-convex optimal portfolio sets and constant relative risk aversion

This paper shows by example that, under constant relative risk aversion (CRRA), the set of optimal portfolios can be non-convex even in the presence of a complete set of Arrow-Debreu securities. This implies that, with exclusively CRRA investors, market models without a strong distributional assumption such as that of the capital asset pricing model cannot be tested by testing the optimality of the market portfolio, or by assuming a representative investor. This demonstration extends the key result of Dybvig and Ross [Dybvig, P. H., & Ross S. A. (1982). Portfolio efficient sets. Econometrica, 50, 1525–1546], who showed an example of non-convexity with less restrictive utility assumptions but which could not apply to the case of a complete set of Arrow-Debreu securities.     

Globalization and economic development

A feature of the continuing integration of the world economy is the globalization of production and the consequent rise of trade in parts and components. Products are more internationalized and less identified with any particular country. Non-trivial shares of the value-added of many exports consist of imports and vice versa. Extension of the international division of labour beyond finished products offers developing countries a broader range of choices for industrialization. This paper explores the implications of these developments in the context of a standard trade model. Component specialization in a developing country's import sector is shown to be superior in overall welfare terms to specialization in the integrated product. Output and employment are higher in the sector, but the wage-rental ratio is lower.     

Optimal tax and debt policy with endogenously imperfect creditworthiness

This paper studies the patterns of optimal tax rates and borrowing in a developing country characterized by a costly tax collection. Its access to the international credit market is determined by the efficiency of the tax system, the relative bargaining power of creditors, and the outstanding debt. Country risk modifies considerably the pattern of taxes and borrowing in recessions. The tax rate exhibits strong counter-cyclical patterns in economies operating close to the credit ceiling, whereas the tax rate exhibits very few cyclical patterns in economies operating on the elastic portion of the supply of credit, where country risk factors are absent.     

最优经济增长的地方财政支出结构优化研究

为了探讨最优财政支出构成比例,本文将不同产出弹性的生产性财政支出项目内生于生产函数中,构建了基于最优经济增长的财政支出结构模型.按照功能将预算内全部财政支出进行分类汇总后,利用1997 - 2010年的省级面板数据检验了全国、东部、中部、西部财政投入的现状,实证结果发现经济建设类支出对经济增长的拉动作用最大,公共服务类支出次之,社会性支出最小,最后提出了财政支出项目未来调整的几点建议.     

Technological dualism,incomplete financial markets and economic development

A model is built in which, the more incomplete financial markets are, the more technological dualism is prevalent in the economy. The model is extended to show that, through dualism and technological choice, incomplete financial markets can have a negative impact on long-run growth.