East German labour market in transition: segmentation and increasing disparity

The employment system of the former GDR–like that of other socialist countries–could be seen as an aggregation of ‘internal labour markets’ with long term employment, internal promotion and little external mobility. Consequently the rapid integration of the East German economy into the western market economy has led to structural problems of the labour market which combined with and intensified the general effects of the sharp decrease in the demand for labour.     

On the financial characteristics of firms that initiated new dividends during a period of economic recession and financial market turmoil

The initiation of new dividends and increases in dividend payout ratios occur infrequently because once initiated it would be expected by most investors that the new dividends will be maintained. Dividend announcements are said to have informational content concerning the value of the firm, and financial signaling theory would lead investors to conclude that the initiation of new dividends is an indication that the firm expects increased cash flows in the future. Thus, unless the initiation is identified beforehand as a special dividend resulting from unanticipated cash inflows, it is difficult to reverse the action without having an adverse effect on the value of the firm. In periods of economic recession and financial turmoil most firms conserve cash and the initiation of new dividends or increases in the dividend payout ratio in such periods are extraordinary and noteworthy. The purpose of this study is to provide a financial analysis of those firms described by Value Line as having initiated or increased the dividend payout ratio in the most recent period of economic recession and financial market turmoil. Specifically, the analysis will test for significant differences in the financial profiles of those firms that initiated new dividends in such a period, and companies selected at random but from the same industries. A unique financial profile is established for the dividend initiating firms, and it is suggested that the profile may be used to identify firms that will initiate new dividends in future periods of economic downturn. As in previous studies of this nature Multiple Discriminant Analysis is used.     

Inference of economic truth from financial statements for detecting earnings management: inventory costing methods from an information economics perspective

We introduce uncertainty in the classic inventory costing choice problem to investigate the underlying partitions imposed by two accounting inquiries (processes of generating information): variable costing and absorption costing. In a contemporaneous reporting environment, we show that absorption costing provides a finer partition of the state space compared to variable costing when a firm arbitrarily increases the production level (opportunistic overproduction), and the predetermined fixed overhead rate is adjusted. Grounded in an information economics perspective, the intent of the article is to propose an approach to detect real earnings management by extracting information from financial statements. The resulting managerial biases arising from earnings management are also discussed.     

Statistics of extreme events in risk management: The impact of the subprime and global financial crisis on the German stock market

Given the growing need for managing financial risk and the recent global crisis, risk prediction is a crucial issue in banking and finance. In this paper, we show how recent advances in the statistical analysis of extreme events can provide solid methodological fundamentals for modeling extreme events. Our approach uses self-exciting marked point processes for estimating the tail of loss distributions. The main result is that the time between extreme events plays an important role in the statistical analysis of these events and could therefore be useful to forecast the size and intensity of future extreme events in financial markets. We illustrate this point by measuring the impact of the subprime and global financial crisis on the German stock market in extenso, and briefly as a benchmark in the US stock market. With the help of our fitted models, we backtest the Value at Risk at various quantiles to assess the likeliness of different extreme movements on the DAX, S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock market indices during the crisis. The results show that the proposed models provide accurate risk measures according to the Basel Committee and make better use of the available information.     

Obesity: An economic and financial perspective

Obesity has been slowly increasing in most countries. This problem has increased to an extent that it is being labeled an epidemic and a leading cause of preventable deaths, second only to smoking. This paper provides a synthesis of the extant economics literature on obesity. More importantly, a framework outlining the economic causes and effects of obesity is discussed. The causes of obesity are many, including economic, technical, historical, and biological. The effects of obesity can be external or internal. These effects, in turn, can be direct or indirect. Recommendations for governments and businesses and directions for future research are discussed. Helpful comments from James Payne and research assistance of Richard Connelly are appreciated. Financial support from the Katie School of Insurance at Illinois State University is gratefully acknowledged.     

Blockchain and cryptocurrencies: economic and financial research

Decisions in Economics and Finance - The motivation of proposing and editing the Special Issue “Blockchain and cryptocurrencies” came from the inspirational invited and contributed...     

从会计目标角度谈合并财务报表的编制

会计的目标是向利益相关者提供具有决策有用性的信息.本文从会计目标角度阐述了合并财务报表编制应选择的合并理论和合并方法.     

Rent sharing to control noncartel supply in the German cement market

A challenge for many cartels is avoiding a destabilizing increase in noncartel supply in response to having raised price. In the case of the German cement cartel that operated over 1991–2002, the primary source of noncartel supply was imports from Eastern European cement manufacturers. Testimonies in a private enforcement case have claimed that the cartel sought to control imports by sharing rents with intermediaries in order to discourage them from sourcing foreign supply. Specifically, cartel members would allow an intermediary to issue the invoice for a transaction and charge a fee even though the output went directly from the cartel member's plant to the customer. We investigate this claim by first developing a theory of collusive pricing that takes account of the option of bribing intermediaries. The theory predicts that the cement cartel members are more likely to share rents with an intermediary when the nearest Eastern European plant is closer and there is more Eastern European capacity outside of the control of the cartel. Estimating a logit model that predicts when a cartel member sells through an intermediary, the empirical analysis supports both predictions.     

A Bayesian approach to experimental analysis: trading in a laboratory financial market

We employ a Bayesian approach to analyze financial markets experimental data. We estimate a structural model of sequential trading in which trading decisions are classified in five types: private-information based, noise, herd, contrarian and irresolute. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we estimate the posterior distributions of the structural parameters. This technique allows us to compare several non-nested models of trade arrival. We find that the model best fitting the data is that in which a proportion of trades stems from subjects who do not rely only on their private information once the difference between the number of previous buy and sell decisions is at least two. In this model, the majority of trades stem from subjects following their private information. There is also a large proportion of noise trading activity, which is biased towards buying the asset. We observe little herding and contrarianism, as theory suggests. Finally, we observe a significant proportion of (irresolute) subjects who follow their own private information when it agrees with public information, but abstain from trading when it does not.     

Training and enterprise performance in transition: evidence from China

The role of training and its impact on company performance is studied in different types of enterprises in a transitional economy. A sample of manufacturing enterprises is drawn, using China as a case study. The findings indicate that training is perceived to be relatively important in non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs). Training objectives have three major dimensions, namely enhancing working relationships, tackling skill deficiencies and skills development. SOEs tend to focus more on skill development, while non-SOEs emphasize both enhancing working relationships and skills improvement. Comparing the expectations of training and the perceived achievement of training objectives, the gap is seen to be small within all types of enterprises, and training effectiveness is perceived to be similar. The production function estimation shows that there is a positive relationship between training expenditures and enterprise productivity.     

The formulation of a linear economic plan for implementation by an optimal combination of command and financial stimulus

Conclusions Command and market activities may be viewed as having different coefficients and different mechanisms of implementation. The command activities are implemented by direct order, the market activities by the producers or consumers optimizing their individual preference functions without regard to state preferences, except as so far these are directly affecting their budgets, via i) direct taxes or subsidies upon their activities, ii) the price system, and iii) lump taxes (subsidies).An optimal combination of command and market activities may be obtained by describing the social system as a linear programme with some constraints and variables based upon the producers and consumers preference functions, and finding its optimal primal and dual solutions. These solutions may be used for directing the command activities, for constructing the tax-subsidy system and for information about equilibrium prices and activity levels.     

Prices,debt and market structure in an agent-based model of the financial market

We develop an agent-based model in which heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents interact by trading a risky asset at an endogenously set price. Agents are endowed with balance sheets comprising the risky asset as well as cash on the asset side and equity capital as well as debt on the liabilities side. A number of findings emerge when simulating the model: we find that the empirically observable log-normal distribution of bank balance sheet size naturally emerges and that higher levels of leverage lead to a greater inequality among agents. Furthermore, greater leverage increases the frequency of bankruptcies and systemic events. Credit frictions, which we define as the stickiness of debt adjustments, are able to explain a key difference in the relation between leverage and assets observed for different bank types. Lowering credit frictions leads to an increasingly procyclical behavior of leverage, which is typical for investment banks. Nevertheless, the impact of credit frictions on the fragility of the model financial system is complex. Lower frictions do increase the stability of the system most of the time, while systemic events become more probable. In particular, we observe an increasing frequency of severe liquidity crises that can lead to the collapse of the entire model financial system.     

MOT in transition: From technology fusion to technology-service convergence

In the technical revolutions such as “mechatronics” and “optoelectronics,” the concept of technology fusion, fusion among different kinds of technologies, had been critical in the management of technology. In this type of management, the joint research among different industries was the most important element.     

我国民营企业财务管理中的问题及对策

文章主要从民营制造企业的财务管理观念、财务管理制度、投融资、资金管理等方面分析了民营制造企业财务管理工作中存在的一些问题。同时针对这些问题提出了相应的一些措施,这些问题解决的好坏,将直接影响到我国民营企业的竞争能力。     

Election outcomes and financial market returns in Canada

This paper investigates the relationship between federal election outcomes and expected returns and volatilities in the Canadian money, bond, equity and currency markets from 1951 to 2006. There is little evidence that investment opportunities are different in minority versus majority parliaments and only money market returns differ in Conservative versus Liberal governments. The equity market performs better in the late part of the electoral cycle than in the first two years. Furthermore, the Canadian equity investment opportunities are better in Democratic versus Republican administrations and in the late versus early parts of the presidential electoral cycle. The Canadian dollar is also affected by American election outcomes. No apparent variation in risk or expected state of the economy accounts for the differences in returns.     

Corruption and economic resilience: recovery from the financial crisis in western economies

We consider the resilience of a group of 20 Western economies after the financial crisis of the late 2000s. We measure resilience by the growth of real GDP between 2007, the previous peak level, and 2015. The countries exhibit a broad range of experience, from a rise in GDP of 18 per cent in Australia to a fall of 26 per cent in Greece. A substantial proportion of the differences in growth rates can be accounted for by just two variables: the perceived level of corruption and membership of the Eurozone. The euro did have a negative impact on the recovery paths of the Mediterranean economies (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain), but their perceived corruption scores in 2007 had a bigger impact, especially on the first three of these economies.     

Money and velocity during financial crises: From the great depression to the great recession

This study models the demand for a broad monetary aggregate (M2) from the Great Depression through the Great Recession. Key to the model is the interaction between a measure of time-variation in economic agents’ perceived financial risk and an index of the cost of portfolio adjustment. The finding of a useful money demand relationship suggests that skepticism regarding the indicator role of a broad, liquid money aggregate as a policy guide may be exaggerated. Further, our model provides some guidance for policymakers who face the challenge of unwinding large balance sheets as risk premia return to normal and velocity adjusts.     

Long memory in the Ukrainian stock market and financial crises

This paper examines persistence in the Ukrainian stock market during the recent financial crisis. Using two different long memory approaches (R/S analysis and fractional integration) we show that this market is inefficient and the degree of persistence is not the same at different stages of the financial crisis. Therefore trading strategies might have to be modified. We also show that data smoothing is not advisable in the context of R/S analysis.