Optimal tariffs,optimal taxes and economic development

Cross-section and time-series data suggest that nations substitute income taxes for tariffs as they develop. This paper confronts the data within the context of a two-country open-economy endogenous growth model in which public expenditure is financed by an optimal tariff and income tax. When the latter is subject to administrative costs, the model predicts that the government will optimally substitute the income tax for the tariff as output rises along the transition. The model is calibrated and a simulation yields time paths for the shares of total government revenue derived from the tariff and the income tax that are consistent with the data.     

Technology, endowments, and the factor content of bilateral trade

We derive testable restrictions relating the factor content of bilateral trade to bilateral differences in technology and endowments. This departs from the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek theorem which compares the factor content of net trade with factor abundance. We test the theoretical restrictions using a unique dataset that covers 41 developed and developing countries with disparate endowments and technology. We find evidence supporting the predictions. In addition: (1) The factor content predictions perform best for country pairs with larger endowment differences, and (2) for trade between capital-abundant countries, Ricardian international technology differences matter more than Heckscher-Ohlin factor endowment differences.     

生物技术、国际贸易与人力资源——一个理论框架分析及其政策含义

随着生物技术的广泛应用,人类的生活必将发生翻天覆地的变化,对于未来的农产品国际贸易格局来说,也将是一场彻底的革新。我国应适时抓住重组赶超的历史机遇,选择最佳的发展模式,去抢占“新文明”经济时代下生存和发展的国际空间。本文从静态的李嘉图方程组出发,采用均衡和非均衡动态分析的方法,研究生物经济背景下农产品国际贸易的最优格局及发展趋势。要提高我国农产品的国际竞争力,作为农业经营的主体———农村劳动力素质的提高、农村人力资本的积累和发展是最为迫切,也是最为重要的。     

服务贸易、货物贸易和劳动生产率变动:理论和实证——基于李嘉图连续统模型的贸易差额分析

根据经验统计表明,服务贸易与货物贸易在差额变动和方向上存在替代性特征。文章以Dornbush等(1977)为基础考虑一个两国开放经济的李嘉图连续统模型,分析各国不同部门劳动生产率变化与服务成为贸易品两个因素对贸易形式和贸易差额变化的影响。研究表明在服务可贸易条件下,不同国家在服务部门和货物生产部门劳动生产率发生的相对差异变动,是导致各国货物或服务贸易差额关系变化的决定因素。而中国-OECD(1982-2004)的劳动生产率及贸易差额的数据检验,也较好地支持了此结论。     

Pollution content tariffs, environmental rent shifting, and the control of cross-border pollution

This paper considers the optimal unilateral policy for a country that imports a good from a neighbouring country and is harmed by pollution generated during the production of that good. If the foreign country has a variable abatement technology, then Home has an incentive to impose a tax on the pollution content of imports (a pollution content tariff). Foreign regulation of pollution does not eliminate Home's incentives to intervene, but instead may create rent-shifting opportunities. By making the right to pollute a scarce asset, foreign pollution quotas create rents that the home government can try to extract.     

服务贸易促进外贸增长方式转变:机理及其实现

我国数量型、粗放型的外贸增长方式难以为继,必须实现根本性转变,发展服务贸易是促进其转变的重要途径和举措.文章分析了服务贸易能够促进外贸增长方式转变的作用机理,并提出了保持货物贸易与服务贸易的互动、服务贸易进出口平衡、比较优势与创造优势相结合以及在WTO中争取自己的贸易利益等发展服务贸易的对策.     

Trade and the location of industries: Some new results

We study a two-country two-sector model with free entry and monopolistic competition where both industries use labour to produce differentiated goods. The two countries are identical except for size. Labour is freely mobile across industries but it cannot move internationally. Transport costs affect both industries. The location of industries and the pattern of trade are the results of the interaction of two effects: the home market effect and the wage differential effect. The main results are: (i) if the two countries are sufficiently close in size and demand elasticities differ across industries (transport costs being equal), a continuous fall in transport costs from a prohibitive level to zero is associated with a reversal in the pattern of trade at some intermediate level. For large transport costs, the large country is a net exporter of the more differentiated good. For lower transport costs, the large country becomes a net exporter of the less differentiated good; (ii) if the two countries are very different in size and demand elasticities differ across industries (transport costs being equal), the larger country is always a net exporter of the less differentiated good.     

基于引力模型的产业内贸易与区域经济一体化研究

产业内贸易和区域经济一体化是当今国际贸易领域关注的重大理论和实践问题,在新贸易理论中,两者在共同因素的作用下被有机地联系起来。本文结合产业内贸易与新区域经济一体化理论,运用贸易引力模型,对两者之间的关系做计量检验,进而为我国区域经济一体化进程和产业内贸易发展提供相关的政策建议。     

中国—东盟运输服务贸易一体化的现状、水平与发展前景

通过分析中国-东盟运输服务贸易的现状和一体化水平,发现中国与东盟国家运输服务贸易在硬件建设上获得了较大的进步,但软件一体化的建设较晚;中国与东盟各国的运输服务贸易增长很快,但长期处于逆差的状态;中国—东盟的运输服务贸易一体化水平较高,且中国对东盟进口的密集度大于出口的密集度,未来一体化有上升的趋势。展望未来,由于中国与东盟国家近年来物流基础设施的发展、自由贸易区的如期建立、双边货物贸易的发展、物流水平、设施和环境有所改善等因素客观上决定了中国与东盟国家未来的运输服务贸易一体化将进一步深化。     

中国贸易条件的变动趋势测算及影响因素分析

利用回归方程对1981-2007年中国贸易条件变动趋势进行测算,研究发现:中国贸易条件以每年4.6%的速度下降,其中工业制成品贸易条件下降是主要动因.在此基础上,对于贸易条件的影响因素进行理论分析和实证检验:长期来看,汇率变化对于贸易条件无显著影响,出口商品结构、FDI和关税水平对贸易条件都有显著影响.     

我国进出口商品结构与对外直接投资的相关性研究──基于VAR模型的分析框架

本文以我国1982-2007年的相关数据为样本,基于VAR模型的分析框架实证研究了我国进出口商品结构与对外直接投资的相关性。结果表明:进出口商品结构与对外直接投资存在长期均衡关系,其中初级产品出口、工业制成品出口分别与对外直接投资存在相互替代效应,初级产品进口、工业制成品出口分别与对外直接投资存在相互补充效应;进出口商品结构中各变量与对外直接投资均不存在短期因果关系,但共同构成了影响对外直接投资变化的短期因素。     

Trade liberalization, outsourcing, and the hold-up problem

This paper shows that, in a bilateral relationship where a foreign supplier has to make a relationship-specific investment but cannot enforce a complete contract, the standard hold-up problem of underinvestment is aggravated when trade incurs a tariff. In this context, we identify two new channels through which trade liberalization enhances international trade. First, lower tariffs increase the incentives of foreign suppliers to undertake cost-reducing investments. Second, lower tariffs may prompt vertical multinational integration. These indirect effects imply that responses of trade volumes to trade liberalization are greater than standard trade models suggest and help explain current trends toward foreign outsourcing and intra-firm trade.     

WTO框架下海峡两岸经贸关系的新格局

加入WTO为海峡两岸经贸关系的发展开创了新局面。大陆与台湾经济的互补性使两岸贸易依存度越来越大 ,区域整合是两岸经贸发展最终趋势。因此 ,在WTO的框架下只有不断地加强两岸之间的经贸交流与合作 ,才能达成共同繁荣的双赢局面。     

内外贸一体化的内涵、经济效应及其路径选择

行政管理体制的变化只是引起对内外贸一体化问题讨论的引线,真正的经济背景是经济结构调整和扩大国内需求。内外贸一体化是以企业为主体的市场自发演进过程,它有助于加快基于比较优势和规模收益的区域产业结构调整和优化,并通过产业结构和贸易结构调整促进国内需求快速增长。企业选择内外贸一体化经营,除了受到内部预算约束和外部市场规模限制以外,还依赖于产业链的延展路径和市场一体化的程度。     

中日产业内贸易结构特征及影响因素分析

中国与日本之间的产业内贸易结构特征及其演变,对于中国整体对外贸易结构、经济结构的升级,以及东亚区域经济合作的发展具有重要影响。本文使用SITC四位数项下的7类产品分类数据,基于一般加权模型、技术加权模型和范数模型,计算了中国与日本之间四种类型的成品与零部件产业内贸易结构优化指数,得出产业内贸易优化程度指数;通过单位根检验、协整检验建立VEC模型,旨在检验相关因素对中国与日本之间产业内贸易结构的优化升级是否具有积极的影响。     

Understanding Money-Back Guarantees: Cognitive, Affective, and Behavioral Outcomes

Although money-back guarantees (MBGs) have a long tradition in marketing and retailing practice, a deeper understanding of how consumers value this instrument is still lacking. The results of two experimental studies show that in addition to cognitive effects, MBGs evoke a positive emotional response, thereby increasing consumers’ purchase intentions and willingness to pay a price premium. Moreover, MBGs positively affect consumers’ responses for search and experience goods, although for experience goods, MBGs should be designed with stricter return conditions as compared to MBGs for search goods. The results should help retail managers understand the consumer impact of MBGs, as well as assist them in pricing guaranteed items and designing effective MBGs according to the type of product.     

新时期内外贸一体化发展策略研究

内贸和外贸都是一国经济发展的重要动力,二者具有相互支撑、相互促进的作用。长期以来,中国一直实行内贸和外贸两条线管理模式,已经无法满足市场经济和贸易发展的客观要求。在当前全球经济下行贸易摩擦加剧、内外贸都面临着转型、出口消费投资在拉动经济增长中需要进一步协调配合的情况下,必须通过着力打造更加自由便利的国内营商环境、加快构建全国统一大市场大流通体系、大力发展跨境电子商务、扩大服务贸易规模提升发展水平等举措,切实推动中国内外贸一体化发展,为经济增长注入新活力。     

中印俄贸易乘数的比较

中印俄三国在贸易乘数上存在着一定的差异。原因是三国在贸易乘数的直接影响因素、间接影响因素以及传导影响因素上存在着一定的差异。通过比较三国在诸多影响因素上的区别，表明虽然中国的贸易乘数在三国中最小，但中国的贸易乘数效应反而最大。     

The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004

We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for 1970-2004. We describe our estimation methods and key features of the data at the country and global level. We focus on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios. We document the increasing importance of equity financing and the improvement in the external position for emerging markets, and the differing pace of financial integration between advanced and developing economies. We also show the existence of a global discrepancy between estimated foreign assets and liabilities, and identify the asset categories accounting for this discrepancy.