THE PROFIT–INVESTMENT–UNEMPLOYMENT NEXUS AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN A STOCK‐FLOW CONSISTENT MODEL

This paper studies under which conditions the share of profit in value‐added, financial constraints on investment and capital shortage may foster unemployment and may limit the growth of capital and/or the growth of aggregate demand, in a stock‐flow consistent model. The efficiency of demand‐side versus supply‐side economic policies (decrease of the real interest rate and/or of the real wage, increase of the leverage ceiling constraint) depends on capital shortage and credit rationing, which are not necessarily simultaneous due to the effects of investment on aggregate demand and supply.     

教育发展中人力资本积累的现状及思考

人力资本是国民素质的综合体现,人力资本积累与教育发展密切相关。教育发展,促进人力资源开发,增加人力资本存量,从而促进经济发展,经济的发展又为教育发展提供财力、物力等方面的支持,因此,教育发展与人力资本积累是一种相互促进的关系。本文通过对教育发展中人力资本积累现状及原因的分析,从加大基础教育投入;转变思想和加强对教育行政主体的监督方面提出了教育发展中人力资本积累的有效途径。     

经济均衡增长的必要条件与我国经济发展战略

经济均衡增长要求两大部类之间必须保持合理的比例关系、消费需求能够稳定增长。社会再生产过程中,两大部类之间的比例关系及投资率、储蓄率是由资本产出率、资本淘汰率、经济增长率三个因素所决定的,在技术、资源不制约经济发展的条件下,消费增长速度越快,投资率、储蓄率会越高,经济发展速度也越快。20世纪90年代中后期,中国经济增长速度放慢的最主要原因是体制改革对人们消费心理的影响,因此应从发展速度、发展方向、调控手段等方面规划我国经济未来发展的道路。     

资源型城市转型中人力资本作用

人力资本是提高资源利用率、实现产业持续发展的源泉,是优化产业结构、延长产业链的关键,是有效减轻环境污染,维护生态安全的保障,人力资本的投资和引进,可优化人力资本配置。在资源型城市转型过程中发挥人力资本作用必须加大人力资本投资,改善人力资本投资和作用的环境,消除人力资本流动障碍,完善人力资本流动机制。     

The ‘amelioration’ of child labor, ‘a modest proposal’

More than 317 million children between the age of 5 and 17 are working in the world. Child labor is a persistent phenomenon, even though its incidence has subsided with economic development. In this paper, we conduct a panel study of 101 countries from 1980 to 2004 where child labor is proxied by the labor force participation of children aged 10–14. We look at the relationships between child labor and investments in human capital, foreign direct investments, countries’ openness to trade, and credit market constraints. We depart from the contributions of cross-country studies by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model by employing a fixed effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) panel data model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity of child labor and individual country-specific effects. We find support for the conclusions of the above-mentioned studies: countries that trade more and have a higher stock of foreign direct investment have less child labor. More generally, we find that trade openness, investments in human capital, and financial development are associated with a reduction of child labor. Child labor persists but tailored policies on trade, investment, and financial reform can lessen child labor along with economic growth, improvements in health, and rising standards of living.     

中国女性人力资本特点及现状分析

女性人力资本投资具有较高的个人收益率和社会收益。女性人力资本具有很强的持续性,对女性人力资本投资有利于社会的可持续发展。从我国女性受教育现状来看,对女性人力资本投资相对不足。从妇女从业情况来看,女性多就业于劳动技能要求不高,技术含量低、报酬少的行业。对女性人力资本投资不足的原因主要是社会观念和经济方面的原因。增加女性人力资本投资,有利于促进社会的全面发展和国民经济持续增长。     

The Role of Human and Financial Capital in the Profitability and Growth of Women-Owned Small Firms

This paper examines the relationship between human and financial capital and firm performance for women- and men-owned small firms in the service and retail sectors. Results indicate that human capital variables, including education and experience, had a positive impact on the profitability of women-owned firms, whereas measures of financial capital had a greater impact of the profitability of men-owned firms. The ability to secure financial capital also had a positive impact on the growth rate of men-owned firms, but did not appear to affect the growth rate of women-owned firms. These findings suggest that the growth aspirations for women-owned firms may be driven by factors other than human capital or the ability to secure external capital.     

逆周期资本账户管制对宏观经济稳定与社会福利改善的作用

资本管制能否有效抵御外部冲击实现宏观经济稳定存在争论,本文通过构造开放经济的DSGE模型研究投资限制和逆周期金融交易税等资本管制工具对于实现宏观经济稳定和改善社会福利的作用。通过比较不同政策安排下主要宏观经济变量的波动性和脉冲响应函数可以发现,采用逆周期金融交易税作为资本管制工具在抵御外部冲击、维持宏观经济稳定方面具有比较优势。设置投资限制的资本管制促进了货币政策的独立性,可以使货币政策专注管理国内的经济增长和通货膨胀问题。通过不同政策安排下的福利分析可知,增加投资国外资产的限制对社会福利的增进起到负面作用,增加逆周期金融交易税的资本管制却可以减轻由投资限制导致的资源配置扭曲,从而放松投资国外资产的限制从根本上提高社会福利。所以,在资本管制工具的选择上,采取逆周期金融交易税可能比采用投资限制更优。随着资本账户开放的基本条件不断成熟,用金融交易税取代投资限制更符合浮动汇率制和自由兑换的资本账户的需求。     

What Drives India's Surge in Service Exports?

India's prowess in the service sector has been recognised the world over. Sustaining services exports is important not only to sustain India's high growth rate but also to compensate for a consistent deficit in merchandise trade and to maintain stability on the external sector. In this context, we analyse the factors of India's performance in services exports over the past three decades. The results reveal that endowment factors such as human capital, improvement in physical infrastructure and financial development are key drivers for India's surge in services exports along with world demand, exchange rate and manufacturing exports. While factors such as institutions, R&D expenditure, telecommunication, foreign direct investment and financial development significantly impact the export of modern services, traditional services exports are more dependent on infrastructure development, manufacturing exports, world demand and exchange rate. India's economic reforms in the financial sector, FDI, communication so far have helped the services exports, but India needs to focus on supply‐side factors to improve the competitiveness – and thereby volume – of services exports.     

Top management team characteristics,R&;D investment and capital structure in the IT industry

This paper is based on agency theory, resource-based and upper-echelons perspectives to examine the relationship between R&D investment and capital structure and the moderating effects of top management team (TMT) characteristics on the financing decisions of R&D investment in small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Using data for SMEs in Taiwan’s IT industry, we find that (1) SMEs involved in R&D activities tend to have lower debt levels and (2) TMT characteristics exert considerable influence on the R&D investment-financial leverage relationship in SMEs. One important implication of the empirical evidence is that for SMEs trying to compete on the basis of innovation, the TMT characteristics significantly influence financing decisions. As innovative activities increase, the selection and development of top executives, who are responsible for choosing an optimal capital structure that could keep financial costs low while providing sufficient financial resources for maintaining a continuous, uninterrupted rate of R&D, is crucial for SMEs.     

金融发展与中国投资增长--1981-2002年数据测算及初步分析

本文提出关于广义金融中介投资的定义并测算了1981-2002年中国广义金融中介投资及其占全社会固定资产投资的比例.该指标被用于与同期内投资相对规模及投资相对效率统计的直观几何比较.比较发现,在所考察期间,两组指标的相关程度都十分微弱.这可能意味着,转轨时期中国经济增长过程中,金融发展对促进投资规模扩大或增进投资效率的积极作用都不够显著.     

中产阶层崛起与金融市场稳健发展

中共"十六大"以后,中产阶层的快速发展已成为一种不可阻挡的趋势.中产阶层是"小康"社会的主流群体,他们的崛起不仅有利于经济和社会和谐发展,也将刺激社会购买力增长与金融市场繁荣,提高金融业的规模经济效益,促进金融创新,有利于提高金融机构的运行效率,保持金融体系的稳定,扩大民间资本积累和活跃民间投、融资.     

Recent finance advances in information technology for inclusive development: a systematic review

The overarching question tackled in this paper is: to what degree has financial development contributed to providing opportunities of human development for those on low-incomes and by which information technology mechanisms? We systematically review about 180 recently published papers to provide recent information technology advances in finance for inclusive development. Retained financial innovations are structured along three themes. They are: (i) the rural-urban divide, (ii) women empowerment and (iii) human capital in terms of skills and training. The financial instruments are articulated with case studies, innovations and investment strategies with particular emphasis, inter alia on: informal finance, microfinance, mobile banking, crowdfunding, microinsurance, Islamic finance, remittances, Payment for Environmental Services (PES) and the Diaspora Investment in Agriculture (DIA) initiative.     

Human capital and financial equilibrium

This article investigates the effect of incorporating human capital—an expansion of the investment opportunity set—into the analysis of portfolio investment decisions. The “production function” of human capital displays decreasing returns to scale. The return on human capital is a product of two factors: a “market” return and return unique to each individual. Financial equilibrium results are derived and tested empirically using U.S. data and an international sample. The main findings are that demand for financial assets relates positively to human capital risk and negatively to financial capital risks.     

人力资本与经济增长——兼论经济增长贫困陷阱

人力资本是经济增长的源泉,人力资本不足会损害经济的长期稳定增长。文章通过构建人力资本经济增长模型,说明人力资本在经济增长中的重要作用,并提出人力资本不足引起的经济增长"贫困陷阱"假说。文章还研究了中国1978－2007年的人力资本与物质资本的积累状况,发现相对于物质资本积累的迅速增长,中国人力资本积累严重不足,人力资本存量与物资资本存量的比率连年下降,这必然会影响经济的长期稳定增长,必须增加人力资本投资来提高人力资本积累。     

FDI,Productivity and Financial Development

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth by focusing on the complementarities between FDI inflows and financial markets. In our earlier work, we found that FDI is beneficial for growth only if the host country has well‐developed financial institutions. In this paper, we investigate whether this effect operates through factor accumulation and/or improvements in total factor productivity (TFP). Factor accumulation – physical and human capital – does not seem to be the main channel through which countries benefit from FDI. Instead, we find that countries with well‐developed financial markets gain significantly from FDI via TFP improvements. These results are consistent with the recent findings in the growth literature that shows the important role of TFP over factors in explaining cross‐country income differences.     

Rhetorics of saving–investment correlations and the international mobility of capital: A survey

This study surveys the literature on saving–investment (SI) correlations and international mobility of capital (IMC) generated over more than three decades since the 1980s. Several studies have shown the presence of paradoxically high SI correlations for the developed countries with observed high IMC, and low SI correlations for the developing countries with observed low IMC. The studies accounting for structural breaks in model parameters provide dominant support for the decrease in SI correlations and increase in IMC after the switch from fixed to flexible exchange rate regime and the removal of policy restrictions on capital flows. The intertemporal optimisation approach to current account and the open-economy growth and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models mainly provide theoretical predictions and suggest that it is possible to find high SI correlations in the wake of high IMC. The increases in international capital flows have been the natural corollary of the growth of international trade in goods and services and increases in foreign direct investment flows. It is these factors, rather than international trade in capital market securities (bonds and equities) driven by the diversification benefits of financial portfolios per se, that have been the key levers of international financial flows.     

Economic and Political Determinants of the Effects of FDI on Growth in Transition and Developing Countries

This study investigates the role of human capital and political development in determining the magnitude of the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth for a panel of 61 transition and developing countries for the period 1989 to 2013. A baseline growth model incorporating these variables is tested and then extended to include FDI interaction effects with human capital (measured using secondary school enrollment data) and political development (based on Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index scores). These growth interaction effects between FDI and human capital vary according to regime type. Political development in conjunction with FDI appears to suppress the effects of FDI on growth in authoritarian countries while enhancing them in hybrid democracies. For more democratic countries, domestic investment is a more important driver of growth. The effects of FDI on growth in the ten transition economies included in the sample data set are found to be insignificant. Although this result might seem to differ from a priori expectations, it is in line with the findings of most earlier studies that cover the period up to 2004. The paper also provides no strong evidence that a critical threshold of human capital is required to generate beneficial spillover growth effects from inflows of FDI. The paper provides new and more detailed insights into the effects of FDI on growth with particular respect to human capital and political regime covering a large number of transition and developing countries based on an up‐to‐date data set covering a 25‐year period to 2013. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

地方政府债务对工业资本配置效率的非线性影响效应——基于动态面板平滑转换回归PSTR模型的检验

经济新常态下,提高工业资本等要素配置效率是实现经济向高质量增长转变的必然要求。本文在政府主导、投资驱动的工业发展模式下,结合地方债务压力和金融发展差异门限变量,在非线性框架下运用动态面板平滑转换回归模型实证检验地方债务规模与工业资本配置效率的渐进演变关系。研究发现,适度的地方债务规模有助于提高资本配置效率,但随着债务压力增加,举债对资本配置的正效应逐步减弱并产生负效应。究其原因,适度举债能补齐工业基础设施短板,压低土地成本,对工业发展产生杠杆效应,从而提高资本配置效率;但过度举债推升财政风险,占用信贷资源并强化企业融资约束,造成资本配置低效率。此外,研究发现,地方信贷规模提升,能缓解举债的融资约束,促进工业行业间的资本流动;而工业金融深化程度提高,能增强市场竞争机制在要素配置中的作用,缓解举债造成投资错配,从而增强资本配置效率。以上分析结果表明,地方政府举债应更理性、适度、规范。     

市场开放度、劳动生产率与我国地区工资差异

以新经济地理学的空间工资结构理论为基础,实证分析了我国西部大开发以来市场开放度、劳动生产率与地区工资差异之间的关系,结果表明,从全国角度来看,市场开放度和人力资本的增加对工资增长的贡献效应很显著,劳动生产率和外商直接投资的增加虽然对工资增长的贡献效应为正,但其效果并不明显;分东、中、西地区来看,市场开放度增加对工资增长的贡献,东部高于中部,更高于西部;人力资本的贡献效应则恰好与之相反;劳动生产率和外商直接投资的增加对工资增长的贡献效应在不同地区的差别并不明显。