Earnings management as a predictor of future profitability of Finnish firms

This study investigates whether the level of current earnings management can be used to predict future profitability of Finnish firms. Earnings management is assumed to predict future profitability, because firms use discretional accruals to manage this year's earnings upwards/downwards, if they believe that the next year's earnings will be high/low. Finnish data are used because the extent of the earnings management can be directly measured from the published Finnish financial statements. The results indicate that the lagged earnings management is significantly related to the future profitability of a firm. The lagged earnings management also contains incremental information relative to past profitability or stock prices when predicting future profitability.     

Anomalies and Unusual Patterns in Reported Earnings: Japanese Managers Round Earnings

Using Benford's law, this study documents pervasive evidence that managers of Japanese firms tend to engage in earnings manipulative activities of rounding earnings numbers to achieve key reference points. Similar to Carslaw (1988) and Thomas (1989) , we find that the first digit of earnings numbers is often emphasized by the management. We also find that key reference points are not limited to the first digit. The second, third, or even fourth digits are sometimes used as the reference points of the rounding earnings behavior. Finally, our results show that the incentives of rounding earnings numbers are negatively associated with the distance of pre‐rounded earnings to the next reference point.     

Looking Attractive until You Sell: Earnings Management,Lockup Expiration,and Venture Capitalists

Earnings management occurs when managerial discretion allows managers to influence reported earnings and thus mislead some investors about the underlying economic performance and quality of the firm. This study considers how potential investors may guard against earnings management by observing negative stock price reaction at the lockup expiration period of initial public offering (IPO) firms as a negative signal. Findings from a sample of 160 newly public firms show that earnings management behaviour is stronger in IPO firms backed by venture capitalists (VCs). Moreover, VC reputation negatively moderates this relationship such that IPO firms backed by reputable VCs are less likely to manage earnings, suggesting that reputable VCs serve an auditing function following an IPO. Overall, we provide insights into signalling theory by examining negative signals arising from the behaviour of multiple agents in an IPO firm.     

Corporate Governance and Accruals Earnings Management

This study examines the association between corporate governance and accruals earnings management using a corporate governance index consisting of 55 individual corporate governance measures. Prior literature has focused primarily on certain individual corporate governance measures, overlooking the multidimensional character of corporate governance. Based on a sample of firms listed on the Athens, Milan and Madrid Stock Exchanges, we find an inverse relationship between corporate governance and earnings management. Corporate governance provisions seem to constrain the tendency of management to manage earnings leading to higher credibility for financial statements. Additional tests suggest that the negative relationship holds for large and middle capitalization firms but not for the small capitalization sample. In addition, corporate governance provisions limit upwards but not downwards earnings management. This study emphasizes the multilevel character of corporate governance and suggests the usage of comprehensive measures of corporate governance in the academic research. This study also stresses the importance of introducing corporate governance mechanisms in order to ensure the integrity of the financial reporting process. Practitioners are expected to evaluate the corporate governance provisions that each firm has put in place, whereas policy makers are expected to mandate the application of a wide range of corporate governance mechanisms. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Earnings Management Vehicles for Korean Firms

We investigated the vehicles that Korean firms use when the firms manage earnings. We partitioned our sample into low, mid and high accrual sub‐samples based on discretionary accruals. Low accrual firms are defined as income‐decreasing firms whereas the high accrual firms are considered income increasing firms in this study. We decomposed accounting earnings into cash from operations and various components of accruals in a systematic way. Next we examined the types of accruals individual firms use when the respective firms increase reported earnings. The empirical results of the study indicate that there are clear discrepancies in the earnings management vehicles firm use when the firms manage earnings depending on the directions of earnings management. More specifically, income‐increasing firms frequently employ non‐cash revenues including asset‐disposal gains. Income‐decreasing firms employ non‐cash expenses including bad‐debt expenses and asset‐disposal losses. Firms also tend to use current accruals but to a limited extent as current accruals entail cash flow implications in the following years.     

Do voluntary disclosures of bad news improve liquidity?

Can managers improve market liquidity and lower the cost of capital by providing voluntary earnings guidance? This study examines the impact of profit warnings on market liquidity and finds that voluntary disclosure of bad news actually improves market liquidity. By conducting an empirical study over the period 1995–2010 on NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX listed firms, we find that firms that issue profit warnings show enhanced market liquidity during the post-announcement period. We show that profit warnings reduce information asymmetry and lower bid-ask spreads and increase trading volumes. These results are invariant to daily (short run) and monthly (long run) data after controlling for firm specific attributes. The results have major corporate policy implications. By voluntarily disclosing negative earnings guidance by managers, firms will experience significant improvement in market liquidity, thereby lowering the cost of capital. Our results are even more profound for firms that release bad news with extremely negative stock market impact. In other words, voluntary disclosure of bad news is good for market liquidity.     

八项计提与公司盈余管理的实证研究

本文以2001-2003年亏损上市公司作为样本,研究亏损公司如何利用八项计提进行盈余管理。实证结果发现扭亏公司在扭亏前一年多计提减值准备,而在扭亏当年大额冲销减值准备的现象。扣除减值准备的影响,扭亏公司中将有72%样本不能扭亏。     

Delayed price response to the announcements of earnings and its components in Finland

Several studies report that even after accounting earnings are announced, estimated cumulative unexpected returns continue to drift up for firms that report unexpectedly good earnings and down for firms that report unexpectedly bad earnings. This paper shows that because Finnish companies tend to pay more attention to tax considerations than so-called economic reality when preparing their financial reports, this drift does not exist for reported earnings, i.e. net profit based on Finnish accounting regulations. It appears, however, that several other income levels assessed by financial statement analysis are important in this respect. The results imply that firms that make extensive adjustments for tax purposes have high unexpected returns. This is explained by the fact that those firms have enough income to extensively exploit the depreciation and other earnings management possibilities.     

Shareholder Activism and Earnings Management Incentives: An Empirical Examination of Shareholder Proposals in the United States

In this article, we investigate the effect of shareholder activism on earnings management. Using a US sample of shareholder pay‐for‐performance proposals sponsored by institutional investors, we find that when compared to control firms, firms targeted by shareholder proposals have a greater magnitude of discretionary accruals (DA) in their reported earnings. In addition, we find that the likelihood of meeting or beating earnings benchmarks through the use of DA is higher for targeted firms whose managers have job security concerns due to the firms’ inferior stock performance in the past or have plans to sell company stock. Our results are consistent with the notion that pay‐for‐performance proposals have unintended consequences by introducing or exacerbating incentives to manage earnings for short‐term gains. The results also indicate that, for financial reporting, the short‐termism effect may dominate the alignment and/or disciplinary effect of shareholder monitoring.     

竞争对手的负面盈余意外：一损俱损还是此消彼长?

以2011—2021年A股上市公司为研究样本，聚焦高集中度的垄断行业，以负面盈余意外作为关键事件，以事件公司同行业其他公司作为焦点公司，采用事件研究法探究竞争对手负面盈余意外对焦点公司市场反应的影响。研究发现，在垄断行业中，竞争对手发生负面盈余意外的两天内(竞争对手发布盈余公告的当天和接下来一天),焦点公司的累计超额收益显著为正，且竞争对手的负面盈余意外程度越大，焦点公司的累计超额收益越高，说明竞争对手负面盈余意外在行业内产生了显著的竞争效应。进一步研究发现，产品可替代性以及焦点公司与竞争对手的相似度均会加剧正面溢出，而行业增长对正面溢出具有显著的缓解作用。     

Earnings management and expected dividend increases around seasoned share issues: evidence from Finland

This paper provides evidence that firms issuing new shares at higher discounts and hence with larger expected dividend increases, use their opportunities for earnings management in such a way that, by the year of a share issue, they report larger earnings in excess of current dividends than firms that issue shares at lower discounts or that do not issue shares at all. These excess earnings are useful to successful issuing firms in that they reinforce the buffer of retained earnings available for future dividend payments, thereby conveying credible information about the firm's ability to meet the expected dividend increase implied by the issue announcement. The empirical findings are consistent with this argument.     

How to Measure Analyst Forecast Effort

Abstract

We introduce a new way to measure the forecast effort that analysts devote to their earnings forecasts by measuring the analyst's general effort for all covered firms. While the commonly applied effort measure is based on analyst behaviour for one firm, our measure considers analyst behaviour for all covered firms. Our general effort measure captures additional information about analyst effort and thus can identify accurate forecasts. We emphasise the importance of investigating analyst behaviour in a larger context and argue that analysts who generally devote substantial forecast effort are also likely to devote substantial effort to a specific firm, even if this effort might not be captured by a firm-specific measure. Empirical results reveal that analysts who devote higher general forecast effort issue more accurate forecasts. Additional investigations show that analysts' career prospects improve with higher general forecast effort. Our measure improves on existing methods as it has higher explanatory power regarding differences in forecast accuracy than the commonly applied effort measure. Additionally, it can address research questions that cannot be examined with a firm-specific measure. It provides a simple but comprehensive way to identify accurate analysts.     

Effect of non‐IFRS earnings reporting guidelines on underlying earnings reporting quality: The case of Australian listed firms

This study investigates Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) 200 firms in the post–Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) period (2011–2014) to examine how listed firms follow the non–International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) earnings reporting guidelines issued by ASIC to communicate underlying earnings reporting quality. We find that firms that do not comply with the ASIC guidelines have lower underlying earnings reporting quality than do firms that comply with these guidelines. Firms that do not follow the ASIC guidelines are found to exclude income‐increasing underlying earnings adjustments to make underlying earnings appear more profitable than IFRS earnings when they miss earnings targets or make current losses, and that they report underlying earnings opportunistically by excluding recurring expenses that persist into future operating earnings. Unlike ASIC non‐compliance firms, ASIC compliance firms attempt to act as responsible reporters by reporting underlying earnings in a responsible manner to demonstrate a judicious use of discretion in informing shareholders. Further, we find that underlying earnings reported by non‐compliance firms are less value‐relevant than underlying earnings reported by compliance firms.     

Japanese Corporate Groupings (Keiretsu) and the Informativeness of Earnings

This paper examines the effect of Japanese corporate groupings, keiretsu , on the informativeness of earnings. Keiretsu firms maintain close financial and personal ties through cross-shareholding, credit holding, interlocking corporate directorates, and various business transactions. We propose that the strong interrelations of the keiretsu ownership structure enhance the informativeness of earnings through efficient monitoring of managerial performance. Our empirical results show that keiretsu firms have higher earnings response coefficients than those of non- keiretsu firms, the earnings response coefficient increases as the strength of the keiretsu relationship increases, and discretionary accruals by keiretsu firms are smaller than discretionary accruals of non- keiretsu firms. All of these results suggest that the monitoring ability of the keiretsu improves the informativeness of earnings.     

Motives and consequences of IPOs in cold periods

We analyze the motives and long-term stock price performance of firms that pursue IPOs in cold IPO periods. We find that firms are more likely to engage in an IPO during a cold period when their earnings are relatively high and are expected to decline in the future. We also find that IPO firms during a cold period are more likely to have managed their earnings prior to the IPO. Furthermore, we find that cold IPO firms experience significantly weaker stock price performance than hot IPO firms, and results are robust to different criteria for defining hot and cold IPO periods, different measures of stock price performance, and different investment holding periods. We find that investment opportunities, the backing of a venture capitalist, and an increase in earnings in the year of the IPO lead to significantly higher long term stock price performance of IPO firms. Our multivariate models confirm the adverse cold IPO period effect on stock price performance even after controlling for the IPO motives and the firm's earnings performance. Our results also hold within the post-Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) era.     

A small country's high-tech dilemma: the challenge facing new technology-based firms in Norway

Judging from their profit trends, new technology-based firms have not been very successful in Norway. After ten or more years of activity, fewer than half a dozen has accumulated profits over £1 million. Those that risked large initial investments in order to standardize an innovative new technology enjoyed the greatest amount of success. Most firms were able to develop a prototype, but many had great difficulties gearing up for production. Insufficient financing and know-how were the main problems. Firms have had more problems with production than with marketing, but very few seem prepared for the costs and challenges of an international marketing effort. Most lacked a clear marketing strategy or business plan. Financing was often a problem: there was little private investment, and equity capital was often scarce with a mean debt to equity ratio of less than 30%. Most firms received some sort of public funding, usually in support of product development, but so far it has had little impact on profit trends. A multi-national follow-up study with access to a larger data base would provide many more insights.     

A Comparison of Reporting Lags of Multinational and Domestic Firms

This study examines whether multinational firms report earnings sooner than domestic firms. When compared with domestic firms, the reporting environment and business operations of multinational firms are significantly more complex. There is a greater amount of information asymmetry between managers and shareholders of multinational firms. Therefore, multinational firms potentially face higher monitoring and external financing costs. To reduce these costs, we conjecture that managers of multinational firms take steps to reduce the information asymmetry between shareholders and management by increasing the timeliness (a proxy for relevance) of their earnings reports. Specifically, we expect multinational firms to announce earnings earlier than domestic firms. We separate earnings reporting delay into auditor‐related delay and management's discretionary delay. While test results weakly support the hypothesis that auditors take longer to audit multinational firms, there is strong evidence that managers of multinational firms release their earnings reports sooner than domestic firms.     

An Investigation of Stock Price Declines Following Corporate Financing Events: Further Evidence

Prior research documents a large downward drift in stock prices following issuances of debt and equity by US firms. We conduct tests based on both stock price and trading volume to provide evidence on the reasons for this apparent market anomaly. We document evidence of earnings management through accruals prior to external financing and lower operating performance afterward that is associated with the amount of capital raised. The earnings management that precedes external financing and the amount of capital raised are associated with both the post-financing decline in stock price and trading volume around earnings announcements that follow for a period of three years. This evidence is consistent with the proposition that firms raise external capital prior to predictable declines in their operating performance and they release upward biased earnings before these events to manage investor expectations. The failure of many investors to incorporate this information into their trading decisions in a timely manner consistent with limited attention and over-confidence appears to drive stock mispricing. Our evidence does not support the conjecture that the financing anomaly is primarily a statistical artifact or that it is a manifestation of the accrual anomaly.     

Timeliness of Annual Report Releases and Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements in an Emerging Capital Market: The Case of China

This paper examines the relation between firm performance and the timing of annual report releases in an emerging capital market. Based on the population of listed Chinese firms with A-shares for 1994-1997, we find that good news firms release their annual reports earlier than bad news firms, and loss firms release their annual reports the latest. Moreover, consistent with Chambers and Penman (1984) and Begley and Fischer (1998), these firms unexpectedly accelerate the release of good news and delay the disclosure of bad news relative to their previous reporting pattern. We also observe a significant price reaction to the annual earnings announcements for both early (good news) and late (bad news) reporting firms. Similar results are found for those A-share firms which have also issued B- or H-shares to foreign investors. Our study documents a systematic timing pattern of annual report disclosures, which is useful for investors to predict future earnings, especially in anticipating bad news in China's emerging market where information about future earnings is very limited.     

‘FAMILY’ OWNERSHIP,TUNNELLING AND EARNINGS MANAGEMENT: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract In this review paper, we bring together a number of aspects of family firms that are ubiquitous in a number of institutional contexts, often as part of larger business groups. We pay particular attention to the mechanisms by which families retain control over firms, and the incentives of the families in control to expropriate other stakeholders by way of tunnelling. We examine the role of earnings management in facilitating tunnelling, and evidence about the incidence of earnings management in family firms. Our review suggests that while the literature on these aspects of family control is rich, the contexts in which the empirical exercises are undertaken are relatively few, and hence there is considerable opportunity to expand it to other contexts, in particular in the form of cross‐country comparisons of the relative impact of agency conflicts and institutions on these issues.