Spiders and snakes: Offshoring and agglomeration in the global economy

Global production sharing is determined by international cost differences and frictions related to the costs of unbundling stages spatially. The interaction between these forces depends on engineering details of the production process with two extremes being ‘snakes’ and ‘spiders’. Snakes are processes whose sequencing is dictated by engineering; spiders involve the assembly of parts in no particular order. This paper studies spatial unbundling as frictions fall, showing that outcomes are very different for snakes and spiders, even if they share some features. Both snakes and spiders have in common a property that lower frictions produce discontinuous location changes and ‘overshooting’. Parts may move against their comparative costs because of proximity benefits, and further reductions in frictions lead these parts to be ‘reshored’. Predictions for trade volumes and the number of fragmented stages are quite different in the two cases. For spiders, a part crosses borders at most twice; the value of trade increases monotonically as frictions fall, except when the assembler relocates and the direction of parts trade is reversed. For snakes the volume of trade and number of endogenously determined stages is bounded only by the fragmentation of the underlying engineering process, and lower frictions monotonically increase trade volumes.     

The Post-Promotion Dip Puzzle: What do the Data Have to Say?

One of the puzzles of store-level scanner data is the lack of a dip in quantity sold in the weeks following a promotion. Such a dip is predicted by a consumer inventory model. During a promotion consumers buy more, not only for current consumption, but stockpile for future consumption. The predictions of such a model have been confirmed by household-level data yet seem harder to find in aggregate brand- or category-level data. We re-examine this puzzle and reach two conclusions. First, the effects at the household-level are present, but are much smaller than previously found. Our estimates are different because we control for household heterogeneity in a more general way than most previous work. This suggests that since the effects are small they might be harder to spot in aggregate data. Second, we show that the dip is present in the aggregate data, once we control for additional promotional activity, like feature and display. The latter has an opposing dynamic effect that masks the existence of the post-promotion dip.     

加工贸易的就业效应 ——基于行业面板数据的检验

本文利用2001²008年行业动态面板GMM模型检验了中国加工贸易的就业效应,检验结果显示加工贸易的就业效应存在滞后性,不论是当期加工贸易进口还是出口对就业拉动作用并不明显;而分部门的回归结果表明加工贸易的就业效应存在明显的部门差异,劳动密集型部门和资源密集型部门加工贸易发展的就业效应相对比较显著,但是技术密集型部门加工贸易发展对就业的影响非常弱。     

Offshoring and occupational wages: Some empirical evidence

Offshoring has changed the pattern of international competition; labor in specific occupations rather than whole firms and sectors are now facing competition. Accordingly, wages in offshorable occupations are affected in new ways. In this article, we investigate the effects of offshoring on relative occupational wages in 13 countries for 1990–2003. Our findings show that offshoring competiveness is associated with higher relative wages in offshorable occupations, and that export growth of IT-related services leads to higher relative wages in offshorable occupations, whereas import growth of such services reduces them.     

Reaching for global in the Japanese cosmetics industry, 1951 to 2015: the case of Shiseido

This article examines the various factors that have shaped the internationalisation of the Japanese cosmetics industry over six decades of economic transformation from 1951 to 2015. Whilst Japanese cosmetics companies have expanded overseas, their focus has largely been in Asia. This article advances a multifactorial explanation that analyses a number of factors that led to regionalisation, including foreign consumers’ perception of Japan, managerial perceptions and strategies toward export markets, as well as the challenges pertaining to cross-border mergers and acquisitions activities by Japanese firms. Using Shiseido as the case example, the article offers a highly-textured account rooted in an understanding of the evolving historical setting, cautions against simple explanations and extends previous discussions concerning the reasons behind the regional orientation of the Japanese cosmetics industry.     

大陆台商投资集中地区与台湾贸易之就业效应研究

采用1994-2008年8个省市的面板数据,对大陆台商投资集中地区与台湾贸易的就业效应进行探讨。研究结果表明,大陆台商投资集中地区的对台出口对就业具有显著的正向影响,而自台进口则对其就业具有挤出效应,而且自台进口对就业的挤出效应大于出口对就业的促进效应。另外,台商投资集中地区经济增长对就业有显著的正向影响,而且经济增长的就业效应明显大于对台出口的就业效应。资本产出比对就业产生显著的负向影响,表明在台商投资集中地区存在一定程度资本替代劳动的现象。     

反补贴申诉的贸易转移效应——基于面板数据的实证分析

利用1991-2009年的统计数据,以1993-2007年间立案的188起国际反补贴案件6位税则号的涉案产品数据为研究对象,通过建立动态面板数据模型,实证分析反补贴申诉的贸易转移效应。结果表明:反补贴申诉会导致涉案产品的进口从被诉国转移到非被诉国,其中墨西哥、美国、欧盟和其他国家的贸易转移效应较大;相比无税结案,征税结案的情况下产生的贸易转移效应更大,即对被诉国的出口的损害更大。     

Real Output Convergence and Trade Openness: Fuzzy Clustering and Time Series Evidence

In the now extensive literature on the convergence of real per capita output across countries over time, there is surprisingly little attention paid to the role of international trade. Some recent studies have illustrated that standard trade theories provide no clear prediction as to the impact of trade liberalization on output convergence. These studies have also provided somewhat ambiguous empirical evidence regarding this relationship, under-scoring the need for additional results in this area. This paper uses both standard and new approaches to testing for convergence in order to explore the extent to which the degree of trade openness may affect output convergence among countries. Using annual time-series data for 88 countries from the Penn World Table, we obtain somewhat mixed results, but on balance they are quite supportive of a positive relationship (though not necessarily causality) between trade openness and output convergence. Our results also suggest certain directions for further research that would shed more light on this important issue.     

Marketing in the global economy: Creditworthiness

The importance of accurate credit information on potential clients and customers is even more critical when doing business overseas—a thorough check before committing resources is always a good idea.     

Trade Credit in Small and Medium Size Firms: An Application of the System Estimator With Panel Data

Financing through suppliers is a subject that has been little studied in the economic literature in general and in corporate finance in particular. Although several hypotheses have been put forward to explain the different reasons behind this phenomenon, trade credit is not based on a general theory. This study provides empirical evidence about factors determining the use of trade credit for a sample of small and medium size firms, which are potentially the firms that would follow this financing route, since they are more rationed in credit markets. Using a panel of Canary-Island firms from 1990 to 1996, and by means of specifications with the system estimator, results reveal that trade credit leads to a reduction in asymmetric information between firms and their financial backers, as well as in transaction costs. Furthermore, we confirm the theory that companies with easier access to institutional finance act as a credit channel for those with greater difficulties to obtain external funds.     

Product-level estimation of import demand: Simulating the effects of tariff harmonisation

Developing countries have traditionally used import tariffs to protect infant industries and raise revenues to finance government expenditure plans. This approach, however, has tended to protect inefficient industries and to some extent hindered economic development. A disaggregated import demand model is estimated using monthly observations on 91 of the most frequently imported product items in Barbados. The results are then employed to evaluate the feasibility of harmonising tariff rates to some single rate across product categories. The results suggest that the estimation of aggregate import demand equations is not accepted by the data and therefore could result in misleading inferences. The policy simulation exercise indicates that a single applied tariff at the 30% level would essentially be revenue neutral, while rates above this level would lead to reductions in tax receipts.     

Determinants of China's bilateral trade balance in global value chains

This paper identifies the determinants of China's bilateral trade balance using a new measure based on international input–output data, the so-called ‘trade in value-added’ (TiVA), which can prevent double counting in the estimation of bilateral trade balance. Our results show that using a measure based on gross exports, rather than TiVA, causes relatively large overestimation of the impact of the RMB exchange rate on China's bilateral trade balance. This overestimation is mainly because that the increasing production of exports may require increasing intermediate imports as a consequence of international fragmentation of production in global value chains. In addition, our results also show that the impact of FDI inflows on China's bilateral trade balances depends on the position and role of China and its trading partners in GVCs.     

贸易对中国环境影响的结构效应和总效应——基于1992—2009年省际面板数据的分析

利用1992—2009年中国省际面板数据,对贸易影响环境的结构效应和总效应进行实证分析,考察贸易对中国环境产生的影响是来自贸易自身的结构因素,还是来自贸易所引起的其他经济因素变化。结果显示:除工业固体废弃物外,贸易的结构效应和总效应均提高了污染物的排放量;不同地区贸易—环境结构效应的比较分析结果显示,相对收入较低地区贸易对环境影响的结构效应亦较小,贸易—环境结构效应较大的地区相对收入均较高。     

When worlds collide: The implications of panel data-based choice models for consumer behavior

Panel data, both diary and scanner, have been analyzed by marketing scientists for over thirty years. One of the important uses of panel data is to better understand consumer behavior by developing and testing hypotheses using the revealed preference data rather than experimental data that uses only self-reported behavior or behavior in a simulated choice environment. The purpose of this paper is to suggest areas of research where panel data can be used to better understand the underlying behavior of the panel members.     

The Gravity Model Analysis of Bangladesh's Trade: A Panel Data Approach

The article applies generalized gravity models to analyze Bangladesh's bilateral trade pattern using the panel data estimation technique. The results reveal that Bangladesh's trade is positively determined by the size of the economies, per capita gross domestic product differential and openness of the trading countries. Bangladesh's exports are positively determined by its income, partner countries' total import demand and openness, but negatively determined by partner countries' income and domestic inflation. Bangladesh's imports are positively determined by income of trading countries and degree of openness of the partner countries and negatively determined by partner countries' inflation. Transportation costs affect Bangladesh's trade negatively.     

Resource Structure and Imports: An Analysis of the Relationship between Skill-Intensive Imports and Skill Endowment

Countries generally import those goods which they do not produce, and there is a possibility that this might be due to unavailability of resources needed to produce the goods which the countries import. Hence, countries with lower levels of total skill endowment are supposed to import more skill-intensive goods than countries with higher levels of total skill endowment. However, the presence of vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade makes this picture complex. Using a theoretical model derived on the basis of earlier theories and some empirical investigation on data of 72 countries of 3 years, this article tries to find out whether there is any relation between total skill endowment and imports of a country. The results show that there is indeed a relationship, but the nature of this relationship depends on the effect of total skill endowment on the country's skill-intensive exports as well.     

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and export diversification

This paper explores the effect of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on export diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa. The existing empirical studies suggest that AGOA has had a positive effect on the overall volume of trade between Sub-Saharan Africa and the United States. However, the economic development literature emphasizes the importance of export diversification for developing countries; therefore, it is important to understand the effects of AGOA on the extensive margin of trade (i.e. the number of distinct products a country exports). Our empirical results suggest that AGOA does contribute to export diversification, specifically through its apparel provision. Countries that are eligible for the AGOA apparel provision export not only more apparel products, but also more non-apparel products to the USA. Thus, AGOA contributes to export diversification at the extensive margin of trade with the USA.     

中国纺织服装产业内贸易现状及决定因素实证研究——基于 2002～2010年面板数据的分析

本文从静态和动态角度考察了2002～2010年中国纺织服装业总体、水平型和垂直型产业内贸易现状及其决定因素。实证结果表明:中国纺织服装总体产业内贸易发展缓慢,水平不高,仍以产业间贸易为主;各子产品产业内贸易水平高低不一,以垂直型产业内贸易为主导。经济规模、人均收入水平与我国产业内贸易尤其是水平型产业内贸易呈正相关,且有显著增强趋势;人均收入差异对我国纺织服装VIIT起到正向作用,且影响显著;地理距离对中国纺织服装TIIT、HIIT和VIIT起到了较显著负面影响;人民币汇率变动与中国纺织服装TIIT、HIIT和VIIT正相关,且影响程度有增强趋势;贸易不平衡与我国TIIT、HIIT和VIIT显著负相关,且影响程度有增强趋势。贸易开放度对我国纺织服装TI-IT、HIIT和VIIT的影响不显著。     

Productivity, indexation and macroeconomic outcomes: The implications of goods market competition and wage bargaining structure

One strand of the macroeconomics literature explores the extent to which the indexation of nominal wages to a variable in addition to the price level can improve macroeconomic performance. The present paper contributes to this literature by developing a model in which the nominal wage is indexed not only to the price level but also to productivity. Two key features of the framework are a monopolistically competitive goods market and a unionized labor market in which wages are determined by a finite number of unions. A significant finding is that the multiparameter indexation scheme generally outperforms full-information wage setting.