Valuation and Forecasting Roles of Dividends of Indonesian Listed Firms

We study the role of dividends in valuation and in forecasting future earnings in a low‐protection environment with highly concentrated ownership that is expected to yield low earnings quality. Using a sample of 372 distinct Indonesian firms listed on the IDX during the period 1995 to 2012 we show that dividends are reliably positively priced by the capital market, violating thus the dividend displacement theorem. This result persists even after controlling for some typical factors that affect firm value (capital structure, risk) and the effect of factors not separately identified, but priced by the Indonesian capital market (other information). Dividends replace accounting earnings entirely in valuation. Dividends are positively correlated to future earnings over and above current accounting earnings and other accounting and market variables. Both findings show that dividends play a central role on the Indonesian capital market. Finally, we show evidence consistent with the view that earnings management of Indonesian firms after 2002 is contractually efficient rather than opportunistic.     

Peer effect on dividends and return comovement

This study investigates the stock return comovement of dividend-paying and nonpaying firms induced by peer effects of dividend payout policies. We consider peer effect as a channel that links a firm’s dividend initiation to firms that did not change dividend status. Dividend initiation attracts investors to the industry and puts pressure on peer firms to change their dividend policy, which leads to return comovement between nonpaying peers and paying firms. Using matched peer firms that resemble dividend initiators, we find that return comovement can be induced through an indirect channel without changes in style or category. Excess return comovement for firms without dividends is observed with dividend payers of the market and their industries through peer influence.     

The Information Content of Concurrently Announced Earnings, Cash Dividends, and Stock Dividends: An Investigation of the Chinese Stock Market

The firms listed on China's stock market are less than ten years old and to date there has been relatively little research on the usefulness of their accounting disclosures for investors. This study focuses on the information content of annual earnings and dividend announcements made by listed Chinese companies. Earnings, cash dividends, and stock dividends are announced concurrently in China and so this allows for tests of their information usefulness and of the interactions between the three signals. Based on a data set of up to 1,232 announcements, we find that unexpected earnings, proxied by earnings changes, are positively related to abnormal returns. Thus, earnings are used by investors in setting market prices. Stock dividends corroborate or attenuate the earnings signal. If the sign of the unexpected stock dividend (increase, decrease) is the same as the sign of the unexpected earnings, then the earnings signal is stronger. If the signs are opposite, the earnings signal is weaker. Unexpected cash dividends have little impact on the earnings signal. Stock dividends per se have a small association with stock returns. In contrast, cash dividends have no discernible association with stock returns and this is consistent with dividend irrelevance arguments. Our results are robust across a number of sensitivity tests.     

The discourse of inflation accounting

The value of a share is given by the dividend discount model as a simple function of future dividends; but the actual determination of the share price is rarely based upon the direct estimation of these future dividends. A ranking of the valuation models used by analysts and fund managers shows a preference for ‘unsophisticated’ valuation using, for example, the dividend yield rather than the dividend discount model. This finding is shown to depend upon the practical difficulty of using currently-available information to forecast future cash flows. This difficulty limits the quantitative basis of valuations to short forecast horizons, while the subjective, qualitative estimation of terminal value assumes great importance. Crucially, both analysts and fund managers use their own assessment of management quality to underpin the estimation of terminal value, on the basis that superior quality causes outperformance and that, whereas management quality can be assessed now, future performance itself is unobservable. Linked with this and with information asymmetry, valuation is a dynamic, company-specific process, focused on personal communication with management and embodying ongoing signalling and implicit contracting, using both dividends and other variables. This method of valuation causes formal valuation models such as the dividend yield to play only a limited role. They offer a benchmark of relative price differences, which serves as a basis from which to conduct subjective, company-specific analysis and to make investment decisions; but valuation models are not used exclusively, in themselves, to value shares.     

Pension Funding Constraints and Corporate Expenditures*

This paper examines the impact of a company's pension contributions (PCs) on its dividend and investment policies. The effects of shocks to cash flows on these corporate expenditures are identified by changes to pension funding regulations. Using a sample of DB pension schemes in FTSE350 UK‐listed firms we find a strong negative relation between PCs and corporate dividends even after controlling for the correlation between funding status and unobserved investment opportunities. We find that the more stringent funding requirements under the Pensions Act 2004 had a more pronounced effect on both dividend and investment sensitivities to PCs.     

On the differential market reaction to dividend initiations

The finance literature documents substantial positive stock price reaction to dividend initiations. Most dividend initiation studies focus on the average positive reaction; however, 40 percent of the firms that initiate dividends experience negative abnormal returns at announcement. This paper focuses on the apparent heterogeneity in the stock price reaction to dividend initiation. I find that the observed negative market reaction reflects the market’s economic assessment of the impact of the event on these firms, and that it is not caused by anticipation or confounding events. The result is also supported by the fact that the market reaction to dividend initiation for these firms is negatively related to initial dividend yield. Both the positive and negative observed reactions are consistent with conventional arguments regarding the information content of dividends, and their role in mitigating agency problems.     

Demographics, dividend clienteles and the dividend premium

The catering theory of dividends proposed that corporate dividend policy is driven by prevailing investor demand for dividend payers, and that managers cater to investors by paying dividends when the dividend premium is high. While earlier research found that the dividend premium is not driven by traditional clienteles derived from market imperfections such as taxes, transaction costs, or institutional investment constraints, we find empirical evidence that demographic clienteles are an important source of the time-varying demand for dividend payers. In particular, we find that, as consistent with the behavioural life-cycle theory and the marginal opinion theory of stock price, the dividend premium is positively driven by demographic clientele variation represented by changes in the proportion of the older population. Our results are robust when controlled for the factors of investor sentiment, signalling, agency costs, tax clienteles, time trend, business cycle fluctuations and varying sample periods.     

Not paying dividends? A decomposition of the decline in dividend payers

Current payout policy literature contends that firms’ propensity to pay dividends declined between 1978 and 1998. Using the Oaxaca decomposition methodology, we measure changes in the propensity to pay dividends between 1978 and 1998. Results suggest that firms today have only a slightly lower propensity to pay dividends. Furthermore, when we also categorize firms that use stock repurchases as dividend payers, we find that 100% of the decline in the proportion of dividend payers can be explained by changes in firm characteristics only. The difference is that firms that firms are now repurchasing stock instead of paying dividends.     

卖空管制放松与上市公司现金股利：促进还是抑制？

基于2006—2020年中国A股上市公司的数据,验证卖空管制放松对上市公司现金股利分配的影响。研究发现,相比于不可卖空的公司,可卖空公司在被列入卖空标的后,其现金股利分配意愿、分配规模与分配平稳性均显著提升。机制检验发现,卖空管制放松对现金股利分配的促进在代理问题严重、投资机会少的公司中更显著,这支持了代理成本机制;同时,在信号传递能力强、信号传递需求大的公司中,卖空管制放松对现金股利分配的促进更显著,这支持了信号传递机制。进一步分析发现,现金股利分配能力不足的公司在应对卖空压力时并未使用“高送转”作为替代。而对于我国资本市场中广泛存在的达标式分配,卖空管制放松能够产生抑制作用,且抑制作用体现在没有再融资需求的公司中。研究表明,卖空管制放松促进了上市公司现金股利分配,卖空机制能够为我国资本市场中的现金股利监管提供市场化路径。     

Deregulation of short selling and corporate cash dividend policy: A quasi-natural experiment from China

This study takes China’s short selling deregulation as a quasi-natural experiment, employs a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2017, and tests the impact of a short selling pilot on firms’ cash dividends using a difference-in-differences model (DID). We find that China’s short selling pilot significantly increases the pilot firms’ cash dividends. The mechanism test shows that short selling can improve the pilot firms’ cash dividends by playing a corporate governance role to restrain dual agency costs such as management fees and major shareholders’ tunneling. Furthermore, we identify that short selling restrains the behavior of “large stock dividends” and increases the cash dividends of “large stock dividends” firms. Moreover, the governance effect of short selling is complementary to the external governance environment. The higher the degree of marketization and government quality, the more significant the governance effect of short selling to increase the pilot firms’ cash dividends. This study enriches not only the research related to cash dividends in emerging economies, but also provides new empirical evidence for the evaluation of China’s short selling deregulation and offers valuable lessons to other emerging economies.     

Earnings quality and corporate payout policy linkages: An Indian context

We investigate the role of accounting quality as an antecedent of dividend payout decision of firms, for both dividend levels and dividend event, in an emerging market context. Using the data for Indian firms through the years 2006–2016, we evaluate the impact of discretionary accruals on payout decision employing Tobit and Logit regression models amid set of idiosyncratic controls. We report that better earnings quality, on average, is associated with large dividend payments for Indian firms. Moreover, the likelihood of dividend payment reduces with poor earnings quality and more so when earnings manipulation is done to increase earnings. Nonetheless, we show that higher earnings quality reduces dividends during the crisis period and also for group-affiliated firms. However, the same doesn’t hold true for dividend likelihood. The relationship is robust to the idiosyncratic controls and the causality test confirms that results are not susceptible to endogeneity issue. Overall, we conclude that better earnings quality takes care of free cash flow problems and alleviates the agency and information asymmetry related costs, thereby stimulating payout policy.     

The impact of ultimate controller’s ownership on cash dividend policy based on a comparative analysis between owner-management and professional-management modes

This study uses Chinese listed firms to examine the relation between the ultimate controller’s ownership and cash dividends under different allocation modes of management rights. The empirical results show that under the professional-management mode, the ultimate controller’s ownership and dividend payments form an inverted U-shaped relation which results from the ultimate controller’s monitoring and collusion with the executive. Under the owner-management mode, the ultimate controller’s ownership and dividend payment levels assume a U-shaped relation which is attributed to its interest encroachment and convergence effect. The shape flip from professional-management to owner-management is the result of the changing opportunity cost of the controller’s dividend payments.     

Ex-dividend day abnormal returns for special dividends

Past research shows that the difference between dividend amount and ex-dividend day price drop reflects the transaction costs and the differential in the tax rates on dividends and capital gains. Moreover, it is also documented that the higher the dividend yield, the lower is the ex-dividend day return. This paper focuses on large special dividends and tests the two competing hypothesis, tax hypothesis and short term trading hypothesis. Our focus on large special dividends is motivated by the following three considerations. First, special dividends have experienced a surge in recent years. Second, special dividends are important for dividend capture by institutions, corporations and arbitragers. Third, using a sample of large special dividends allows us to reduce the market microstructure effects and focus more directly on the two competing hypotheses. Based on a sample of large special dividends, we find that price drop on ex-dividend day is significantly less than the dividend amount. Furthermore, we show that ex-dividend day returns are positive and hence, are not fully arbitraged away. Our tests indicate that tax hypothesis explains some portion of ex-dividend day abnormal returns even for large special dividends, whereas the support for the short-term trading hypothesis is weak.     

The dividend policies of all-equity firms: A direct test of the free cash flow theory

This paper finds support for Jensen's (1986) hypothesis that dividends and debt are substitute mechanisms for controlling the agency costs of free cash flow. We find that dividend payout ratios of a sample of all-equity firms are significantly higher than those of a control group of levered firms. Further, within the group of all-equity firms, firms with lower managerial holdings have higher payout ratios. These results hold after controlling for free cash flow and growth rates. Overall, our evidence suggests that dividends and managerial ownership are substitute mechanisms for reducing agency costs in all-equity firms.     

投资者情绪、股利政策与公司价值研究

基于行为金融学背景对股利政策的信号传递作用进行的研究发现,在不同的投资者情绪条件下,股利政策信号传递的效应存在差异。在股市上涨时期,不同股利政策对投资者的投资决策的影响几乎没有显著差异;在股市下跌时期,现金股利成为投资者获得收益的主要来源,因此发放现金股利的公司受到市场追捧。因此,上市公司股利政策制定不仅要考虑自身情况,还需要考虑市场情绪。     

Long-term stock performance following extraordinary and special cash dividends

Using essentially all declared extraordinary and special cash dividends between 1926 and 2001 which are not preceded or followed by the same for a period of three years, we find no robust post-declaration long-term abnormal stock returns, even in sub-samples defined by the special dividend yield, the bang-for-the-buck, the declaration-period abnormal return, the sub-sampling period or the stock market condition at declaration. Only event firms in the smallest CRSP market capitalization quintile display significant positive abnormal returns during the first-year following the declaration. However, these latter are not robust across sub-sampling periods. Overall, there is no compelling evidence that investors under- or over-react to extraordinary or special cash dividends.     

Dividend growth, stock valuation, and long-run risk

In this paper, we integrate the long-run concept of risk into the stock valuation process. We use the intertemporal consumption capital asset pricing model to demonstrate that a stock’s long-run dividend growth is negatively related to its current dividend-price ratio and positively related to its long-run covariance between dividends and consumption. Then, we show that the equilibrium price of a stock is determined by its current dividend, long-run dividend growth, and long-run risk. In all, our work suggests that risk cumulated over many periods represents an important parameter in assessing the theoretical value of a firm.     

On the financial characteristics of firms that initiated new dividends during a period of economic recession and financial market turmoil

The initiation of new dividends and increases in dividend payout ratios occur infrequently because once initiated it would be expected by most investors that the new dividends will be maintained. Dividend announcements are said to have informational content concerning the value of the firm, and financial signaling theory would lead investors to conclude that the initiation of new dividends is an indication that the firm expects increased cash flows in the future. Thus, unless the initiation is identified beforehand as a special dividend resulting from unanticipated cash inflows, it is difficult to reverse the action without having an adverse effect on the value of the firm. In periods of economic recession and financial turmoil most firms conserve cash and the initiation of new dividends or increases in the dividend payout ratio in such periods are extraordinary and noteworthy. The purpose of this study is to provide a financial analysis of those firms described by Value Line as having initiated or increased the dividend payout ratio in the most recent period of economic recession and financial market turmoil. Specifically, the analysis will test for significant differences in the financial profiles of those firms that initiated new dividends in such a period, and companies selected at random but from the same industries. A unique financial profile is established for the dividend initiating firms, and it is suggested that the profile may be used to identify firms that will initiate new dividends in future periods of economic downturn. As in previous studies of this nature Multiple Discriminant Analysis is used.     

Hard Times or Great Expectations? Dividend Omissions and Dividend Cuts by UK Firms*

This paper uncovers an increasing proportion of quoted UK companies omitting cash dividends. Using a large panel of quoted UK firms, we estimate panel data probit models for the incidence of dividend omissions and cuts as functions of financial characteristics including cash flow, leverage, investment opportunities, investment and company size. These variables account for most of the increase in omission since 1995. There is relatively little evidence to link this to the major tax reform of 1997 that abolished tax refunds on dividend income payable to tax‐exempt institutions. Significant persistence effects indicate companies are slow to adjust their balance sheets through their dividend.     

Corporate cash holdings and dividend payments: evidence from simultaneous analysis

This study explores the simultaneous relationship between corporate cash holdings and dividend policy using a large sample of around 400 non‐financial firms for the period from 1991 to 2008. The results show that cash holdings are affected by dividends, leverage, growth, size, risk, profitability, and working capital ratio. Dividend policy is affected by cash, leverage, growth, size, risk, and profit. When controlling for simultaneity, dividend payments do not appear to significantly affect cash holdings, nor do cash holdings affect dividend policy. The empirical analysis suggests that simultaneity is crucial in analyzing corporate cash holdings and dividend policy. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.