Accuracy, Bias, and Dispersion in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: The Case of Cross-Listed Foreign Firms

This paper examines differences in analysts' earnings forecast characteristics for foreign incorporated non-U.S. firms cross-listed in the U.S. stock markets relative to a control sample of purely domestic firms. Examining summary earnings forecasts over the calendar years 1984 through 1989, this paper provides evidence that there are statistically significant differences in bias and accuracy between domestic and cross-listed foreign firms. Consistent with prior research, we find a horizon effect in accuracy; i.e., accuracy improves as we get closer to the actual earnings announcement for both types of firms. However, the differences in accuracy between the cross-listed and domestic firms persist only in the earlier forecast horizons where analysts' forecasts are less accurate for foreign cross-listed firms compared with domestic firms. The evidence is also consistent with analysts' exhibiting less optimism with respect to cross-listed foreign firms compared with the domestic firms. Finally, the paper also documents that there is a greater consensus among analysts for foreign cross-listed firms than for domestic firms.     

An Evaluation of Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Hong Kong Firms

This study evaluates the accuracy and potential bias of analyst forecasts for Hong Kong firms published in the Estimate Directory and compares analyst forecasts to model forecasts. It also examines the association of forecast accuracy with various firm characteristics. The findings of the study show that on an overall basis analyst forecasts for Hong Kong firms are more accurate than model forecasts. Analyst forecasts for Earnings Per Share (EPS) are generally biased towards overstatement. The analysis of the association between forecast accuracy and company characteristics suggests that analyst forecasts for larger firms are comparatively more accurate than for smaller firms. As expected, the results also show that analyst forecasts with shorter time horizons are more accurate than forecasts with longer time horizons. The variability in firms' earnings, beta (market risk) or industry classification have no significant impact on the accuracy of analyst forecasts.     

Analysts' Forecasts of German Firms' Earnings: a Comparative Analysis

This paper examines analysts' forecasts of the annual earnings per share of German firms over the period of February 1987 to December 1995. The German case is particularly interesting as the accounting and institutional structures vary from those in more thoroughly researched markets such as the U.S. or U.K. The paper therefore considers the features of the German forecasting environment which distinguish it from the Anglo-American model, and whether these might be reflected in forecasting performance. The results for Germany show that the accuracy of analysts' forecasts improves as the forecast horizon shortens, are less accurate than a naive prediction model over longer horizons, and contain a positive bias. When the results for Germany are contrasted with the results for the U.K., as reported in a recent paper, they are found to be a little less accurate but the positive bias is greater in U.K. forecasts. Taken overall the forecasting process in Germany appears to be less efficient than in the U.K., but this may be due to the distinct features of the German forecasting environment.     

Market Risk Disclosures and Investment Efficiency: International Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council Financial Firms

This study examines the association between market risk disclosures (MRDs) and the investment efficiency of financial firms from six emerging markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Based on a sample of 553 firm‐year observations over the 2007–2011 period, we find that MRDs are significantly and negatively associated with both under‐investment and over‐investment and that this association is more pronounced for larger firms. We also find that the association between MRDs and under‐investment is moderated during periods of economic distress such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and that the association between MRDs and over‐investment is magnified during periods of reduced financial distress. Our results are consistent with the idea that MRDs reduce information asymmetry, which ultimately improves investment efficiency. We contribute to the literature in an emerging market context by providing empirical evidence on the association between MRDs and investment efficiency across six emerging GCC capital markets. This study also fills a gap in the literature by providing evidence on the factors affecting the investment efficiency of financial firms.     

媒体信息挖掘与分析师盈余预测准确度——基于管理层业绩预告背景的考察

文章以管理层业绩预告为研究背景,实证考察了媒体的信息挖掘作用对分析师盈余预测准确度的影响。研究发现,随着媒体报道数量的增多,管理层业绩预告精度对分析师盈余预测偏差的负向影响更加显著,表明媒体报道为分析师盈余预测提供了额外的公司预期盈余信息,即媒体具有信息挖掘作用。进一步研究发现,媒体报道对业绩预告与分析师盈余预测关系的强化作用在信息透明度较差和业绩预告为"坏消息"的公司中更显著;政策导向媒体比市场导向媒体的信息挖掘作用更强,具体表现为政策导向媒体的新闻报道能够强化业绩预告对分析师盈余预测的影响,但市场导向媒体的影响效果不显著。     

Introduction of International Accounting Standards,Disclosure Quality and Accuracy of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

We examine whether the introduction of international accounting standards by German companies has improved the accuracy of analysts' forecasts, and what role changes in the quality of disclosures have played in this process. We develop a structural equation model that allows us to separate the effects of changes in disclosure quality from other effects of the introduction of international accounting standards on forecast errors. Our sample comprises 1,908 firm-years covering the period from 1997 to 2005. We measure disclosure quality with data from a yearly annual-report competition. We find that the introduction of international accounting standards has been associated with a significant improvement in forecast accuracy. Increases in the quality of companies' disclosures appear to have contributed to this improvement. However, the disclosure effect, while significant, explains only a small portion of the overall improvement in forecast accuracy. Further analyses show that differences in disclosure quality are more relevant for German GAAP companies than for IFRS/US GAAP companies. Moreover, only the quality of notes to companies' financial statements appears to matter to analysts; the quality of management reports appears to make no difference. Our results are robust to a variety of tests concerning the sample composition, the operationalisation of variables and the estimation procedure.     

Analysts' Forecasts in Asian-Pacific Markets: The Relationship among Macroeconomic Factors, Accounting Systems, Bias and Accuracy

In this study, we describe determinants of accuracy/bias of analysts' forecasts in 13 economies of the Asian‐Pacific region. Examination of the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts allows us to judge how accounting systems and macroeconomic distinctions in this region affect earnings predictability. As many investors rely on analysts' earnings forecasts instead of producing their own, the growth of international investment means forecasts in non‐US markets will become increasingly important to investors worldwide. Using a sample of firms with data available on Global Vantage and I/B/E/S International, we find that the analysts on average have a pessimistic bias in Asian‐Pacific markets. We examine whether macroeconomic factors explain part of the difference in the size of analyst forecast errors, using the global competitiveness rankings of the World Economic Forum (WEF). We expect that those nations which are more open to foreign trade and investment and are ranked more highly by the WEF in its Global Competitiveness Index will also have more accurate analyst forecasts, as increased global competitiveness demands greater integration into the world economy, and such integration should lead to more transparent financial statements and more accurate earnings forecasts. Our findings are consistent with this prediction. We also find that countries with low book‐tax conformity have more accurate earnings forecasts.     

Dissemination of Accruals Information,Role of Semi‐Annual Reporting,and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Evidence from Japan

Our study investigates the effects of dissemination of accounting accruals information on stock prices using Japanese annual reports as our sample. We conduct month‐by‐month detailed analyses of price adjustment behavior with a particular focus on revisions of analysts' earnings forecasts and changes in trading volume around the period of upcoming semi‐annual reports. We find that analysts' forecasts are often revised around this time, and analysts use this as auxiliary information. In addition, an accompanying re‐adjustment of abnormal returns and an increase in trading volume are observed. Our findings demonstrate that informational uncertainty initially triggered by the announcement of annual reports decreases as semi‐annual reports are disclosed and analysts change their earnings forecasts, and confirms the importance of semi‐annual reporting.     

Integrated Thinking and the Transparency of Tax Disclosures in the Corporate Reports of Firms

The purpose of our study was to link two global corporate developments, namely integrated thinking and the transparency of tax disclosures. The International Integrated Reporting Council's long‐term vision is for integrated thinking to be embedded in mainstream business practice, facilitated by integrated reporting. The development of the transparency of tax disclosures was driven by tax avoidance practices of multinational companies. The vision of embedding integrated thinking into mainstream business and the increased focus on the transparency of tax disclosures have developed independently, but thus far there has been no serious consideration of how they may be related. We argue that there is a natural relationship between these two developments. We use PwC's (2014) framework for measuring the transparency of tax disclosures and apply the framework to the corporate reports of a sample of 45 large firms. We use regression analysis to test the association between the transparency of tax disclosures in corporate reports and integrated thinking and find them to be positively associated.     

How Analysts Process Information: Technical and Financial Disclosures in the Microprocessor Industry

Abstract

Following Bradshaw (‘Analyst information processing, financial regulation, and academic research’ [2009], and Analysts' forecasts: What do we know after decades of work? [2011]), this paper examines how analysts process information, particularly in an information environment characterised by multiple and potentially complementary information sources. The setting is the microprocessor industry, one in which technical information is particularly significant and complex to digest. Based on 3837 analyst earnings-forecast revisions, issued by 134 analysts, we examine quantitatively the speed, magnitude, and information content of the reactions of individual analysts and subgroups of analysts to both periodic and timely technical disclosures, and as a complement to periodic financial disclosure. We find that analysts are much slower to react to timely technical disclosures than they are to periodic financial disclosures. We find also that technical and financial disclosures complement each other. Furthermore, we find that there is a ‘hierarchy’ of analysts in this particular industry, as evidenced through the strength of reaction to timely technical disclosures. Finally, we find that lower speed in reacting to timely technical disclosures and a higher intensity in the use of timely technical disclosure (in conjunction with periodic financial disclosure) result in greater accuracy, and that more experienced analysts tend to be less accurate. We suggest that the findings may have implications for other industries such as Bio-Tech Pharma.     

Financial contagion vulnerability and resistance: A comparison of European stock markets

This paper investigates contagion to European stock markets associated with seven big financial shocks between 1997 and 2002. We apply methods using heteroscedasticity-adjusted correlation coefficients to discriminate between contagion, interdependence and breaks in stock markets relationships. The analysis focuses on a comparison between developed Western European markets and emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe. We find modest evidence of significant instabilities in cross-market linkages after the crises. The Central and Eastern European stock markets are not more vulnerable to contagion than Western European markets.     

Environmental,Sustainable Behaviors and Innovation of Firms During the Financial Crisis

In this paper, we analyze the relation between sustainable and environmental behaviors and performance and innovation. Altogether, 1032 observations are divided into specific groups according to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) Global 500 report and the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) for 2008 and 2009. Based on legitimation theory and stakeholder theory, we regard the voluntary activities of firms as having long‐run effective characteristics that can be applied to industry in general. The environmental behavior of firms is represented by CDP activity, while the DJSI represents their sustainable activities. Based on the assumption that corporate environmentalism is a bilateral agreement between policymakers and firms, we answer four specific research questions. (i) What is the relation between voluntary activities and performance of firms? (ii) Do firms' voluntary activities in environmental and sustainable implementations induce innovation? (iii) How does the nature of innovation depend on voluntary type of the firms? (iv) What is the link between firm characteristics and innovation according to voluntary types? From the presented empirical analysis, we find positive relations between corporate environmentalism and innovative activities. We then classify environmental and sustainable issues and propose an empirical model of the links between environmental and sustainable behaviors and innovation activities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

European Periphery Crises,International Financial Markets,and Democracy

This article analyzes the origin and causes of the recent economic and financial crises, mainly for the countries located in the periphery of the European Union (EU), as well as their evolution and transformation into social, political, and institutional crises. After explaining the differential impact of the crises on EU economies, we analyze how the economic policies developed thus far not only are unable to resolve the current crisis pattern but also actually entail a risk to the present democratic models by transferring the legitimate control over governments from citizens and democratic parliaments to unelected, nonrepresentative international financial markets.     

International Variations in Transparency and Capital Structure: Evidence from European Firms

This paper documents the impact of national transparency regimes on corporate capital structure in 14 European countries. After controlling for relevant firm, industry, and national variables, we find that owner-manager agency cost-reducing transparency such as higher levels of analysts following is associated with lower corporate debt levels. In contrast, transparency that reduces owner-creditor agency costs that helps creditors control business risks (and creditors-to-owners wealth transfers), such as disclosure timeliness, institutional trading activities, and enforcement of anti-insider trading laws, are associated with higher corporate debt levels. Among other transparency measures, levels of financial and governance disclosures are negatively associated with debt ratios and higher levels of audit intensity and accounting disclosures are positively associated with debt ratios. Further, transparency factors are more important for large firms and for firms in services and high technology.     

Initial Financial Conditions,Unobserved Heterogeneity and the Survival of Nascent Canadian Manufacturing Firms

The firm dynamics literature has stressed productivity, size, and age effects in firm duration. Understanding the implications of financial state has largely been unexplored because of the lack of quality data on private entrant firms. This paper investigates the role of start‐up financial conditions (debt‐to‐asset ratio) on the duration of entrant manufacturing firms using a unique administrative firm‐level database called T2LEAP. The debt‐to‐asset ratio has an economically and statistically significant effect on firm hazard after controlling for usual covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. Further, a non‐monotonic relationship between firm hazard and leverage appears. Firm hazard varies positively with leverage for firms in the top two leverage quintiles, whereas hazard rates fall with leverage in the lower quintiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and the Value Relevance of 20-F Reconciliations from non-U.S. to U.S. GAAP

This study extends existing research into the value relevance of reconciliations to U.S. GAAP by examining the role of analysts' earnings forecasts in explaining potential market reactions to the earnings reconciliation. One possible reason why the evidence on the value relevance of the earnings reconciliation is weak is that earnings are forecast by analysts. Their forecasts may pre-empt some of the information content of the earnings reconciliation disclosures. Our findings indicate that analysts' forecasts are value relevant and that they play a pre-emptive role for some firms. For others, however, the earnings reconciliation has information content that is not pre-empted by analysts' forecasts.     

股权结构特征与困境公司恢复——基于中国上市公司的实证分析

股权结构是公司治理结构的重要组成部分,它对于陷入困境的公司尽快得以恢复具有不容忽视的作用.本文利用我国上市公司的数据,选取1998～2002年期间被ST的公司为样本,依据被ST两年后的摘帽情况将这些公司分为摘帽与没有摘帽两组,比较这两组公司的股权结构特征.研究结果表明,高级管理人员持股比例较高、第一大股东持股比例较高有利于公司摘帽,控股股东为国有股性质时摘帽的可能性也较大.另外,负债越多越不利于公司摆脱困境.     

接受赤道原则与否的博弈研究

赤道原则作为国际间金融企业公认的环境和社会风险行为准则,对社会的可持续发展起到重要作用。文章通过构建博弈模型,分析金融企业选择接受赤道原则与否的利益条件,得出影响金融企业选择行为的因素。     

CO2 Emissions and Financial Performance of Socially Responsible Firms: An Empirical Survey

A firm's financial performance is closely related to its environmental behavior. This result is valid especially in the case of socially responsible firms. In the present study a data econometric analysis is conducted based on a GARCH model for socially responsible and conventional firms. According to our findings, the performance of socially responsible firms is negatively related to an increase of global CO₂ emissions. The firms' costs for implementing environmental policies and the investors' attitude towards the aforementioned firms may account for our results. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.