FDI是稳定的外资来源吗?——基于FDI净流入额波动性的视角

传统理论大多将FDI看作稳定安全的外资来源,但随着FDI实践的发展,FDI的稳定性已经明显降低,资金大规模进出东道国的风险明显提高。我国经过连续30年引进外资,FDI对缓解国内资金短缺的作用基本消失,其波动性增大的负面影响则逐渐显现。本文对全球及我国FDI波动性的历史变化趋势进行了测算,为FDI稳定性的下降提供了实证依据,并对我国应对FDI稳定性下降提出政策建议。     

Global capital flows and development: A Survey

Abstract

From a development perspective, capital flows can both provide significant benefits and entail significant costs. Consequently, the development impacts of capital flows do not readily lend themselves to simple generalizations. This survey considers the development benefits and costs of four kinds of capital flows: foreign direct investment, equity portfolio investment, bond finance, and commercial bank lending. The survey suggests that the development impacts of these flows are conditional on both their specific characteristics and the larger policy environments in which they take place. It claims short-term superiority for foreign direct investment and equity portfolio investment over bond finance and commercial bank lending, and offers a set of policy recommendations to make capital flows more development-friendly.     

Risk-based capital, portfolio risk, and bank capital: A simultaneous equations approach

This paper examines the impact the risk-based capital standards had on bank capital and portfolio risk during the first year the risk-based standards were in effect. To date, insufficient attention has been focused on how the risk-based capital standards have impacted bank capital and risk. Building on previous research, this study used a three-stage least squares (3SLS) model to analyze the relationship between bank capital, portfolio risk, and the risk-based capital standards. The results suggest that the risk-based capital standards were effective in increasing capital ratios and reducing portfolio risk in commercial banks.     

Capital controls on inflows, exchange rate volatility and external vulnerability

We use high frequency data and a new econometric approach to evaluate the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows. We focus on Chile's experience during the 1990s, and investigate whether controls on capital inflows reduced Chile's vulnerability to external shocks. We recognize that changes in the controls will affect the way in which different macro variables relate to each other. In particular, we consider the case where controls co-exist with an exchange rate band aimed at managing the nominal exchange rate. We develop a methodology to deal explicitly with the interaction between these two policies. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) a tightening of capital controls on inflows depreciates the exchange rate and (b), we find that a tightening of capital controls increases the unconditional volatility of the exchange rate, but makes it less sensitive to external shocks.     

The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004

We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for 1970-2004. We describe our estimation methods and key features of the data at the country and global level. We focus on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios. We document the increasing importance of equity financing and the improvement in the external position for emerging markets, and the differing pace of financial integration between advanced and developing economies. We also show the existence of a global discrepancy between estimated foreign assets and liabilities, and identify the asset categories accounting for this discrepancy.     

资本市场与国际收支:来自工业化国家的经验数据

本文从理论和经验上论证了资本市场与国际收支的关系。通过分析18个工业化国家的经验数据得出:一国如果拥有一个发达的资本市场,往往吸引较多的国外资金通过证券投资大量流入,引起资本账户顺差,与之同时往往伴随着经常账户逆差。这一结论的政策含义是:发达的资本市场是一国合理利用外资的一个重要前提;与之同时,发达的资本市场可能是一国国际收支平衡过程中实现自我调节的缓冲器。我国多年来一直保持资本账户巨额顺差,但主要是通过FDI实现的,这种格局的形成也与我国资本市场的缺陷有关。对我国而言,建设一个发达的资本市场对我国国际收支管理有着多方面的积极意义。     

Inequality,leverage and crises: Theory and evidence revisited

Rajan points to rising income inequality as a root cause of the recent financial crisis through high household leverage. The Rajan hypothesis has ignited debate over the relationship between inequality, leverage and crises. Kumhof, Ranciere, and Winant prove the validity of this hypothesis with a theoretical formulation, but empirical studies provide mixed evidence using different samples and estimators. To clarify this controversy, we re‐examine the issue by using the same data as in the literature and provide additional evidence after taking into account the role of asset bubbles and policy interventions. Our regression is based on a new tractable theoretical model that is supported by key stylised facts, and all our analyses confirm the existence of the inequality–leverage–crisis nexus.     

国际产业资本转移的基础、规律及趋势

产业资本的跨国流动和转移是国际经济分工中的常见现象,产业资本跨国转移的目的是在世界范围内整合利用其它国家的优势生产要素,其转移的载体是跨国公司,其转移的理论基础是比较优势原理。国际产业资本转移一般经历三个阶段,在不同阶段所转移的产业也不相同。在国际产业分工更加深化的条件下,国际产业资本将向具有制造业比较优势的国家和地区集聚。     

Local protectionism and regional specialization: evidence from China's industries

This paper uses a dynamic panel estimation method to investigate the determinants of regional specialization in China's industries, paying particular attention to local protectionism. Less geographic concentration is found in industries where the past tax-plus-profit margins and the shares of state ownership are high, reflecting stronger local government protection of these industries. The evidence also supports the scale-economies theory of regional specialization. Finally, the overall time trend of regional specialization of China's industries is found to have reversed an early drop in the mid-1980s, and registered a significant increase in the later years.     

The influence of social capital on strategic choice: An examination of the effects of external and internal network relationships on strategic complexity

In this research we investigated the direct contributions of social capital via network involvement to the strategic complexity of firms. Specifically, we looked at three network types - trade associations, external personal networks, and internal personal networks - to assess their individual and collective effects on strategic complexity. We empirically tested the relationships in the rural telecommunications industry using a mailed survey to this population's CEOs. We obtained 203 responses (30% response rate). Using Poisson regression, we found that all three network types were positively associated with strategic complexity, which was measured as product portfolio breadth. We also discovered that initial conditions affected strategic outcomes, with larger firms and cooperative ownership associated with greater strategic complexity.     

价格规制与企业资本结构的选择——来自我国上市公司的经验证据

受规制企业的资本结构与政府价格规制密切相关。本文建立了一个两阶段动态博弈模型并提出了相关的理论假设,以检验受规制企业资本结构决策与政府价格规制强度之间的关系。理论分析表明,资本结构选择作为企业的战略工具,能提高企业的谈判地位,迫使规制机构提高产品价格。因而企业面临的价格规制越严厉,越有动力提高负债水平。本文利用沪、深两地的受规制上市公司为样本进行的实证研究有效地支持了本文上述的假设。     

Export prices,selection into exporting and market size: Evidence from China and India

This paper empirically analyses the export pricing behaviour of Chinese and Indian exporters when there is selection into exporting. Previous exchange rate pass-through estimates that did not take selection into account could be biased if selection into exporting is correlated with pricing strategy. We use 6-digit product-level data across high- and low-income export destinations over the period 1994–2007 and assess a number of determinants of the degree of pass-through of exchange rates to export prices, such as the level of external demand, exporter’s wage cost, degree of competition in export markets, currency volatility and the direction of currency movements. We find systematic differences in the pricing strategies of Chinese and Indian exporters while uncovering a selection bias in exports to high-income markets, although the pricing of exports to low-income markets is independent of the decision to export. Export prices do not increase systematically with the destination market per capita income, and tend to be less sensitive in shipments to advanced nations. Export prices of India are sensitive to the volatility of the trade-weighted nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), indicating heterogeneity in prices to maintain competitiveness, but not in China as volatility is insignificant given a fixed currency system. It is also revealed that a country with a relatively flexible currency regime and arms-length trade such as India is more likely to exhibit incomplete pass-through, whereas a country with an inflexible currency system and involved in outward processing trade is more likely to have full pass-through as shown in the case of China.     

Financial intermediaries,ownership structure and the provision of venture capital to SMEs: evidence from Japan

This paper examines how the provision of venture capital to small- and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) is influenced by the ownership structure of the venture capital provider. We introduce a new and unique dataset from the Japanese venture capital market, comprising data on investment and venture capital activities of 127 Japanese venture capital funds. The data allow us to provide a direct comparison of the behaviour of individual owner-manager venture capitalists versus financial intermediation (e.g., bank’s venture capital divisions). The data indicate owner-manager venture capitalists (financial disintermediation) give rise to much smaller portfolios of SMEs and more advice to entrepreneurs. Across the scope of different financial intermediation structures, including banks, life insurance companies, securities firms, corporations and government bodies, there are further differences in the provision of governance and value-added advice provided to SMEs. Also, the data indicate US-affiliated funds in Japan are more likely to have smaller portfolios and tend to provide more advice to SMEs.

Economic growth,trade and capital flows: A causal analysis of post-liberalised South Africa

Development Finance and EconometricsThis paper investigates the causal relationships between trade, capital inflows and economic growth in post-liberalised South Africa over the period from 1995 to 2011. The results show that economic growth in South Africa is driven primarily by trade and fixed investment rather than by capital inflows. However, the relationship between economic growth and imports is bidirectional, and thus economic growth in South Africa is associated to a greater extent with the export-led growth hypothesis than the import-led growth hypothesis. In addition, the results find in favour of growth-led FDI rather than FDI-led growth, and that portfolio inflows rather than FDI are integrated into the country's trade-led growth dynamics.     

Entrepreneurial orientation, management commitment, and human capital: The internationalization of SMEs in India

Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) make sizeable contributions to the economic success of nations. Research concerning the internationalization of SMEs is available in the context of developed economies but less is can be found dealing specifically with the entrepreneurial behavior and international expansion of SMEs in emerging markets such as India. This research extends the literature addressing the relationships surrounding the internationalization of SMEs in India as related to entrepreneurial behavior, firm resources, and commitment to internationalization. Entrepreneurial orientation, a commitment to internationalization, and the ability to leverage human capital influence the international success of Indian SMEs, based on the analysis of data collected from 150 Indian SMEs.     

Innovative opportunity pursuit, human capital and business ownership experience in an emerging region: evidence from Ghana

This study explores whether an entrepreneur??s ability to assemble and leverage human capital, particularly specific human capital relating to prior business ownership experience, is associated with seven types of product and work practices innovation in an emerging region, namely, Ghana. Logistic regression estimation revealed that portfolio entrepreneurs were more likely than novice entrepreneurs to report ??innovation tried??. Multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed that portfolio entrepreneurs were more likely than other entrepreneurs to report ??innovation tried and introduced??. If the goals of policy are to increase the ??quality?? of new business start-ups and maximize investment returns, there is a case to target assistance to portfolio entrepreneurs.     

人力资本、社会支持与流动人口社会融入 ——以北京市为例

作为"首善之区",北京一直是很多流动人口向往和驻足的地方,也因此成为推进新型城镇化和流动人口市民化压力最大的城市之一。基于2017年北京市流动人口动态监测调查数据,分析了流动人口社会融入水平的整体特征、空间差异和影响因素。研究表明,北京市流动人口的社会融入总体水平不高且存在空间异质性。人力资本积累对流动人口的社会融入具有显著的影响,其中,跨城市流动经历有利于经济和行为融入的积累,而心理和文化维度的融入则依靠本地居留时间的增加。家庭、朋友、社区等层面的社会支持显著提升流动人口总体的社会融入水平。经济收入水平的提高是人力资本和社会支持影响流动人口社会融入的重要路径,但对不同类型人力资本和社会支持及不同维度社会融入的中介效应强度差异较大。     

Pro-environmental behaviors for thee but not for me: Green giants,green Gods,and external environmental locus of control

Understanding consumers' allocation of environmental responsibility to external forces (i.e., those perceived to be beyond their direct control) is important yet under-researched. This paper examines how these external attributions affect consumers' pro-environmental behaviors (PEBs). A model of external environmental locus of control (i.e., external-ELOC) is tested, consisting of two superordinate dimensions: powerful-others (encapsulating corporate and government responsibility facets) and chance/fate (incorporating God/higher-power and natural earth-cycle facets). The two higher-order factors negatively associate; such that consumers ascribing environmental responsibility to powerful-others engage in PEBs; whereas those attributing environmental change to chance/fate typically do not. The results inform practical and public policy implications; pinpointing ways for corporations and governments to target their pro-environmental efforts and to sway consumers who share in the ecological burden.     

FDI,Trade, and Growth Dynamics: New Evidence from the Post-Reform India

This article has two aims: first, review the related literature on the relationship among Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Trade, and Economic Growth, and second, empirically examine the linkage between these variables. Our review of the literature indicates that despite a large volume of literature on the relationship among these variables, the direction of causality among them is far from over. Therefore, after observing a gap in the empirical literature, especially for developing economies, we investigate the linkage by using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model applying the Ganger non-causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) for the period 1991Q3 to 2006Q3. The evidence shows that there is bidirectional causality (two-way feedback) between FDI and economic growth. At the same time, there is also a unidirectional causality exists between exports and FDI, which runs from the former to the latter. Results of the test of causality between FDI and imports indicate the presence of a two-way feedback relationship between the variables.