On exports and economic growth: the case of Italy

The export-led growth hypothesis for the Italian economy (1960-98) is tested through a VAR model with four macroeconomic variables: an index of the GDP of the rest of the world; the Italian real exchange rate; Italian real exports; and the Italian real GDP. Our results provide clear empirical support for the hypothesis. They also suggest that the Kaldorian approach is very useful in analysing short-run as well as long-run growth and fluctuations of an open economy such as Italy.     

Financial development and growth: A clustering and causality analysis

This article examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in a sample of 69 countries. A regime switching panel vector autoregression model is specified to detect directional changes in finance-growth causality and potential time variation of such causality patterns. In addition, a clustering analysis is performed to identify the presence of convergence clubs based on data properties. The findings show that most countries have switching between two states: one way causality from growth to financial development but not the other way round, and coexistence of bi-directional causality. Poorer countries are represented by a system with stable steady state while the clusters of advanced economies tend to exhibit multiple steady states. The clustering results map closely the degree of financial openness, and the cultural and geographical proximities of member countries.     

外商直接投资技术溢出效应的空间计量分析

MoranI检验和空间相关系数检验都表明,FDI的技术进步作用存在空间相关。空间相关的主要原因是外资高技术产品进入市场引致模仿效应和竞争效应,而市场的选择并不局限于FDI投资地。这种空间相关性在1997年开始显著,到1999年达到一个相对的稳定值。空间计量模型回归结果表明,FDI的技术溢出效应超出挤出效应,FDI的技术进步作用的关键在于FDI的有和无,不在于量的不断增长,量太大反而产生挤出效应。因此当前应重视欠发达地区的外商投资,发达地区的外商投资则应避免其形成垄断。国内因素对技术进步的作用大于FDI的作用,研发人员的流动对技术进步的作用非常重要,而资本存量、RD资本投入的作用具有一定的地理局部性。     

Stability of long-run growth in East Asian countries: New evidence from panel stationarity test with structural breaks

This paper investigates the stability of the steady-state growth process in East Asian region using a novel panel stationarity test, which allows us to control for (a) unobserved heterogeneity in form and date of potential structural breaks in a trend function, (b) the cross-sectional dependence among countries in the panel bootstrapping methods, and (c) the serially correlated errors. Evidence shows that a large majority of countries exhibit slowdowns in economic growth after their structural breaks and thus could not recover from negative shocks and return original balanced growth path.     

The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: Some new insights on the openness measurement issue

Empirical results on the links between trade openness and economic growth often suggest that, in the long run, more outward‐oriented countries register better economic growth. However, a similar level of trade openness can hide different types of trade structures. The aim of this paper was to enrich the way of measuring trade openness taking into account two different dimensions of countries’ integration in world trade: export quality and export variety. Based on the estimation of an endogenous growth model on a panel of 169 countries between 1988 and 2014 using a generalised method of moments estimator, our results confirm that countries exporting higher quality products and new varieties grow more rapidly. More importantly, we find a non‐linear pattern between the export ratio and the quality of the export basket, suggesting that openness to trade may impact growth negatively for countries which are specialised in low‐quality products. A non‐linear relationship between export variety, the export ratio and growth is also found, suggesting that countries increasing their exports will grow more rapidly after reaching a certain degree of the extensive margin of exports.     

Global and Cultural Characteristics of Humor in Advertising:

Extending theoretical frameworks tested in other national markets, this study provides an in-depth look at the structural and content characteristics of television advertising that uses humor in Japan. Similar types of humor structures are found but important content differences are observed as well. In addition, structural characteristics previously shown to be associated with higher levels of perceived humor in U.S. television advertising, are not found to affect perceptions of humor in Japanese television advertising. The study's implications for academics and international marketing managers interested in improving performance in the Japanese market are discussed.     

出口和生产率:基于异质性企业的实证研究综述

新新贸易理论框架下异质性企业出口和生产率的关系可以用两种假说来概括——"自我选择出口"和"出口导致增长"。文章回顾了十多年来学者们用各个国家的企业数据对这两种假说的验证,对比和评析了相关的研究方法、研究结论、实证结果的原因等,对我国出口企业"生产率悖论"的原因进行总结与探讨,并提出了未来的研究思路与方向。     

When worlds collide: The implications of panel data-based choice models for consumer behavior

Panel data, both diary and scanner, have been analyzed by marketing scientists for over thirty years. One of the important uses of panel data is to better understand consumer behavior by developing and testing hypotheses using the revealed preference data rather than experimental data that uses only self-reported behavior or behavior in a simulated choice environment. The purpose of this paper is to suggest areas of research where panel data can be used to better understand the underlying behavior of the panel members.     

改善和提高吉林省农产品出口环境和能力研究

吉林省是农业大省,扩大农产品出口规模,对吉林省经济发展至关重要。本文根据全球农产品市场环境及发展趋势,分析了吉林省农产品出口的现状及存在的问题,提出了改善吉林省农产品出口环境、提高吉林省农产品出口能力的建议。     

Non-linear relationships between growth opportunities and debt: Evidence from quoted Portuguese companies

This paper analyses the relationship between growth opportunities and debt of quoted Portuguese companies using various panel estimators. The results show a cubic relationship between growth opportunities and debt. When companies' growth opportunities are low and high, the relationship between growth opportunities and debt is positive. For intermediate levels of growth opportunities, the results show the existence of a negative relationship between growth opportunities and debt. These results suggest that the relationship between companies' growth opportunities and debt is influenced by complex aspects in companies' capital structure decisions. The empirical results suggest that creditors recognize high growth opportunities when such opportunities exist, and debt is a way to discipline managers' actions in the presence of low investment opportunities. For intermediate levels of growth opportunities, the subinvestment problems seem to be relevant in explaining the relationship between growth opportunities and debt.     

Potential Growth of the US Economy: Will the Productivity Resurgence Continue?

This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. productivity growth through 2004 and presents medium-term projections for the U.S. economy. We attribute a substantial portion of productivity gains over the past decade to production and use of information technology equipment and software. In the most recent years, we also identify a growing contribution from sources outside the technology- producing sectors. Our base-case projection for the GDP growth rate is almost exactly three percent. We emphasize the substantial range of uncertainty by presenting an optimistic projection of 3.5 percent and a pessimistic projection of only 1.9 percent. JEL Classification D240,E230     

Green productivity and bilateral trade flows in an augmented gravity model – A panel data analysis

Motivated by the debate in the trade liberalization and the environment literature, this article examines the effect of enhancing green productivity (GP) on bilateral trade flows. The uptake of per capita ISO14001 certification counts is used to measure GP. The existing literature provides other key determinants of bilateral trade flows. This article employs an augmented gravity model and presents panel data analysis on 26 countries from 1995–2004. Since GP is closely related to quality management, this article also examines the joint effect of the measure of quality management systems (QMS) and the measure of GP. Several fixed effects regression equations are estimated. The results support the hypothesis that enhancing green productivity is a positive and statistically significant determinant of real bilateral exports. The joint significance of the measures of GP and QMS is also supported. This article lends empirical support for the new trade theory and Linder's hypothesis and is consistent with those obtained in the existing literature.     

我国公共安全与经济增长的空间计量实证分析

公共安全服务可以有效保护资本产权并最终促进经济增长。在考虑公共安全服务空间溢出效应的同时,采用空间计量经济学方法对我国1998到2005年的省级面板数据进行实证分析后得到如下结论：用于公共安全维护的城市维护费用、公检法司支出等公共支出对经济增长的贡献十分显著;相邻地区用于公共安全维护的支出对于本地区的经济增长存在显著的正外部效应;为追求更高的经济增长速度,财政资源可适当向公共安全领域进行倾斜。     

中国金融发展与经济效率的实证分析:1978~2002

本文采用中国27个省、直辖市和自治区1978 ~2002年的年度面板数据,运用混合回归的计量方法,对中国金融系统促进经济增长的作用渠道进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,中国的金融系统对经济增长的促进作用是通过投资总量途径而不是效率途径来实现的,对经济增长的推动付出了经济效率上的代价。为此,必须转变金融发展路径,加快金融变革,实现经济与金融的二元均衡。     

金融发展对农民收入增长的影响——来自中国面板数据的再检视

中国金融发展对农民收入增长的影响目前尚未形成定论。利用1978—2006年的省级面板数据,以银行贷款总额占同期GDP的比重作为衡量金融发展水平的指标,检验中国金融发展对农民收入增长的影响,结果显示金融发展对农民收入增长具有显著的正向影响,但金融中介的低效率阻碍了金融发展对农民收入促进作用的进一步提升。因此,要更好地发挥金融对农民收入增长的促进作用,形成从农业信贷资金到农业投资的高效转化的有效监控机制,就不能脱离其他一系列农村改革措施。     

Exploring the role of knowledge management practices on exports: A dynamic capabilities view

Drawing on dynamic capabilities view, this work provides empirical evidence on the role of knowledge management practices on export intensity in SMEs in a mature and global, non-high-tech industry. A quantitative study with structural equation modeling was carried out on a sample of 157 Spanish and Italian manufacturing companies in the ceramic tile industry. Our results suggest the existence of a mediating effect of dynamic capabilities on exports, hence the implementation of knowledge management practices is a necessary but not sufficient condition to improve exporting, requiring the existence of dynamic capabilities to reconfigure these capabilities. Findings highlight the relevance of knowledge practices to foster exports, providing new insights for managers dealing with dynamic capabilities in SMEs.     

Firm productivity and export markets: a non-parametric approach

This paper examines total factor productivity differences between exporting and non-exporting firms. These differences are documented on the basis of a sample of Spanish manufacturing firms over the period 1991-1996. The paper also examines two complementary explanations for the greater productivity of exporting firms: (1) the market selection hypothesis, and (2) the learning hypothesis. Non-parametric tests are proposed and implemented for testing these hypotheses. Results indicate clearly higher levels of productivity for exporting firms than for non-exporting firms. With respect to the relative merits of the selection and the learning hypotheses, we find evidence supporting the self-selection of more productive firms in the export market. The evidence in favor of learning-by-exporting is rather weak, and limited to younger exporters.