Export externalities and economic growth

Feder formulated the first model with an explicit mechanism connecting international trade and economic growth. We present new econometric estimates of this unique model for 30 developing countries studied by Feder. We replicate Feder's 1964?–?73 cross-section estimates for 1974?–?83 and 1984?–?93 and find that the export variables lose significance and that the model has less explanatory power overall. We also try to improve on time-series estimates by Ram and find that the coefficient of Feder's total factor productivity differential in favour of the export sector was positive and significant for 18 of the 30 countries. The export externality coefficient proved to be positive and significant in 13 countries although significant multicollinearity occurs in the regressions for eight of the 13. Comparisons of the results among countries suggest that the impact of exports on growth depends on population size, trade orientation, and the importance of manufacturing.     

A French migrant business network in the period of export-led growth (ELG) in Mexico: The case of the Barcelonnettes

After independence, Mexico became the destination for a current of migration from Barcelonnette, France. This migration increased between 1870 and 1930. The combination of several conditions, strategies, and characteristics of these businessmen’s social networks allowed a significant proportion to become wealthy. This paper uses the example of the Barcelonnettes to show that the development of manufacturing industry in Mexico was not directly dependent on the need for foreign currency generated by exports in this period; however these manufacturers benefited from the growth of the domestic market, which was the result of increase of exports of primary goods.     

On exports and economic growth: the case of Italy

The export-led growth hypothesis for the Italian economy (1960-98) is tested through a VAR model with four macroeconomic variables: an index of the GDP of the rest of the world; the Italian real exchange rate; Italian real exports; and the Italian real GDP. Our results provide clear empirical support for the hypothesis. They also suggest that the Kaldorian approach is very useful in analysing short-run as well as long-run growth and fluctuations of an open economy such as Italy.     

基于分行业面板数据的服务业全要素生产率分析——以浙江省为例

文章利用面板单位根与协整分析技术构建面板数据模型,以浙江为例,对服务业分行业的全要素生产率进行估算,在此基础上分析了各行业全要素生产率的增长率及对产出的贡献率。研究结果表明,相比资本密集型行业,劳动密集型和知识密集型行业资本弹性系数小于劳动力弹性系数;相比生活型服务业,生产型服务业的全要素生产率的增长率较快,对产出的贡献率较高;服务业分行业的全要素生产率的增长率及对产出的贡献率呈现不断提高态势。     

Financial development and growth: A clustering and causality analysis

This article examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in a sample of 69 countries. A regime switching panel vector autoregression model is specified to detect directional changes in finance-growth causality and potential time variation of such causality patterns. In addition, a clustering analysis is performed to identify the presence of convergence clubs based on data properties. The findings show that most countries have switching between two states: one way causality from growth to financial development but not the other way round, and coexistence of bi-directional causality. Poorer countries are represented by a system with stable steady state while the clusters of advanced economies tend to exhibit multiple steady states. The clustering results map closely the degree of financial openness, and the cultural and geographical proximities of member countries.     

Remittances,investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa

Several studies have examined the impact of remittances on economic growth, yet the results remain largely inconclusive. I present an analysis of the relationship between remittances and per capita growth, and investigate whether the impact of remittances on growth is through capital accumulation or other mechanisms. Using data for sub-Saharan African countries and dynamic empirical models, I find that there is a positive relationship between remittances and growth, as well as a positive interaction effect between remittances and financial depth on growth. The findings also reveal threshold values for two main indicators of financial development, above which the total effect of remittances on growth is positive. The results further provide evidence for the existence of an investment channel through which remittances affect growth, and indirect evidence that remittances contribute towards a stable macroeconomic environment, and hence, growth, through a consumption smoothing effect.     

The Dynamic Links Between Exports,Foreign Direct Investment,and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Transition Economies

ABSTRACT

By applying time series and panel data cointegration analysis, this study investigates the causal relations between exports, inward FDI and GDP for fifteen European transition economies over the period 1995–2014. This study goes beyond previous empirical works by using two auxiliary variables in the aforementioned nexus: domestic investment and government spending. Empirical findings suggest that though the effect of openness is beneficial to all economies of the region, the presence of export-led growth and FDI-led growth hypotheses are validated mainly for the group of economies that entered the European Union in 2004. Conversely, for the remaining economies, the results confirm the prevalence of a culture for saving over spending, which eventually provokes the beneficial expansion of their local investment and export capacity.     

外商直接投资技术溢出效应的空间计量分析

MoranI检验和空间相关系数检验都表明,FDI的技术进步作用存在空间相关。空间相关的主要原因是外资高技术产品进入市场引致模仿效应和竞争效应,而市场的选择并不局限于FDI投资地。这种空间相关性在1997年开始显著,到1999年达到一个相对的稳定值。空间计量模型回归结果表明,FDI的技术溢出效应超出挤出效应,FDI的技术进步作用的关键在于FDI的有和无,不在于量的不断增长,量太大反而产生挤出效应。因此当前应重视欠发达地区的外商投资,发达地区的外商投资则应避免其形成垄断。国内因素对技术进步的作用大于FDI的作用,研发人员的流动对技术进步的作用非常重要,而资本存量、RD资本投入的作用具有一定的地理局部性。     

Some observations on models of growth and distribution with autonomous demand growth

This paper offers some theoretical and methodological observations on a model of growth and distribution, recently developed by Franklin Serrano and others and called the Sraffian supermultiplier model, in which the growth of autonomous capitalist consumption demand and distribution are exogenously given and capacity utilization is at an exogenously given “normal” level in long‐run equilibrium. First, it provides a simple long‐run equilibrium version and dynamic formulation of the model, and compares it to other models of growth and distribution using a common framework and focusing on the effect of a change in income distribution on growth. Second, it shows that the model can be modified to examine other components of autonomous demand growth, including government spending, exports, consumption by workers, and investment and technical change, and to simultaneous multiple sources of autonomous demand growth. Finally, it comments on some methodological issues concerning the model, and on its implications for the notion of long‐run equilibrium.     

Service industries,growth dynamics and financial constraints

This work represents a first attempt to study the effects of financial constraints on firm growth within the business services as it can be argued that firms are different not only in terms of size but also in the way they operate in a specific industry. Thus, firms can be either characterized by the use of intensive professional knowledge or, alternatively, by the use of a workforce with no specific professional skills. For the business services included, the results reveal the relative importance of internal sources of financing with respect to the external ones. The liquidity constraints mainly affect the growth of industries requiring qualified labor pool, such as computer programming and information service activities, as well as the professional and scientific ones. In these sectors, foremost operate small firms with a superior innovation capacity; therefore, they are considered risky and face difficulties in raising debt capital on favorable terms.     

On the measurement of investment types: Heterogeneity in corporate tax elasticities

This paper contributes to debates about the appropriate characterisation of heterogeneous investment types and to what extent different investment motives affect the responsiveness to corporate taxation. In particular, we employ and refine a methodology to better evaluate the tax elasticity of investment types. Using a combination of both firm‐specific information and sector‐specific information from input–output tables, we discuss how to classify investment as non‐related, horizontal, vertical and complex types. First, we point out to what extent the resulting classification depends on assumptions made by the researcher. Second, we employ an ample set of classifications and find that non‐related investment reacts stronger to corporate taxation, whereas horizontal investment is less responsive, though, significant negative tax semi‐elasticities turn out for the subset of manufacturing industries. To address inherent characteristics of vertical and complex investment, we extend the methodology and find that, by and large, stronger business motives reduce the tax responsiveness of investment to a larger extent. Given the current debates about substantial corporate tax reforms, it is all the more important to recognise that corporate tax effects can vary fundamentally between countries, driven by country‐specific differences in their composition of industries and investment types.     

Stability of long-run growth in East Asian countries: New evidence from panel stationarity test with structural breaks

This paper investigates the stability of the steady-state growth process in East Asian region using a novel panel stationarity test, which allows us to control for (a) unobserved heterogeneity in form and date of potential structural breaks in a trend function, (b) the cross-sectional dependence among countries in the panel bootstrapping methods, and (c) the serially correlated errors. Evidence shows that a large majority of countries exhibit slowdowns in economic growth after their structural breaks and thus could not recover from negative shocks and return original balanced growth path.     

Productivity and the economic pastoral: Implications for growth

This paper identifies the fundamental principles and ethical norms presented in the first draft of the U.S. Bishops' Pastoral Letter on Catholic Social Teaching and the U.S. Economy which apply to the issue of economic productivity. These principles are compared with accepted managerial principles for improving productivity and the similarities noted. Finally, the new challenge of the Economic Pastoral is identified as extending the scope of application of these principles beyond those persons who are working in an enterprise to those persons who are affected by the enterprise. Robert L. Armacost is Assistant Professor of Management Science at Marquette University, and chairperson of the planning committee for Archdiocesan-wide hearings on the Economic Pastoral. He is published in Operations Research and Mathematical Programming.     

The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: Some new insights on the openness measurement issue

Empirical results on the links between trade openness and economic growth often suggest that, in the long run, more outward‐oriented countries register better economic growth. However, a similar level of trade openness can hide different types of trade structures. The aim of this paper was to enrich the way of measuring trade openness taking into account two different dimensions of countries’ integration in world trade: export quality and export variety. Based on the estimation of an endogenous growth model on a panel of 169 countries between 1988 and 2014 using a generalised method of moments estimator, our results confirm that countries exporting higher quality products and new varieties grow more rapidly. More importantly, we find a non‐linear pattern between the export ratio and the quality of the export basket, suggesting that openness to trade may impact growth negatively for countries which are specialised in low‐quality products. A non‐linear relationship between export variety, the export ratio and growth is also found, suggesting that countries increasing their exports will grow more rapidly after reaching a certain degree of the extensive margin of exports.     

Productivity in the services sector: conventional and current explanations

One of the most conventional statements in economics, with regard to the services sector, suggests that, as a whole, this sector has a lower productivity level and growth rates than the other productive sectors. From this approach, we can derive the relative lower productivity in some advanced economies (such as the European countries versus the USA and some particular emergent economies) as an explanation of the growth of the tertiary sector. This paper will look in greater depth at issues related to services productivity, from conceptual aspects regarding the definition and meaning of productivity to methodological and measurement of services productivity. This work is essentially a necessary revision of the literature on economic growth, productivity and the services sector, reviewing not only the conventional literature but also those new waves of thinking.     

Going Alone: The Case for Relaxed Reciprocity in Freeing Trade

We examine the output elasticity of infrastructure for four South Asian countries viz., India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka using panel cointegration techniques for the period 1980–2005. In this context, we develop an index of infrastructure stocks and investigate the impact of infrastructure on output. The study finds a long-run equilibrium relationship between output and infrastructure along with other relevant variables, such as gross domestic capital formation (GDCF), labor force, international trade and human capital. The results reveal that GDCF, labor force, export and expenditure on human capital exhibit a positive contribution to output. More importantly, infrastructure development contributes significantly to output growth in South Asia. Further, the panel causality analysis shows that there is mutual feedback between total output and infrastructure development.     

The development trinity: How regional integration impacts growth,inequality and poverty

Developing countries today have become more active participants in regional trade agreements. This raises questions about how the benefits of integration are distributed, and the extent to which lower‐income countries are able to capture development gains. Historically, such impacts have been difficult to identify with precision. This paper seeks to address this gap by empirically analysing the impact of regional integration on development, particularly the effects on growth and welfare. Using both bilateral and regional integration measures, we show that the ability to capture gains from integration varies across developing country regional groups, with developing Asia benefiting on par with developed countries. The findings in the paper indicate that trade and trade policy play an important role in reducing inequality and poverty in developing countries. It also shows that regionalism can function as a channel to make multilateralism a more adept way of addressing national challenges.     

Global and Cultural Characteristics of Humor in Advertising:

Extending theoretical frameworks tested in other national markets, this study provides an in-depth look at the structural and content characteristics of television advertising that uses humor in Japan. Similar types of humor structures are found but important content differences are observed as well. In addition, structural characteristics previously shown to be associated with higher levels of perceived humor in U.S. television advertising, are not found to affect perceptions of humor in Japanese television advertising. The study's implications for academics and international marketing managers interested in improving performance in the Japanese market are discussed.     

出口和生产率:基于异质性企业的实证研究综述

新新贸易理论框架下异质性企业出口和生产率的关系可以用两种假说来概括——"自我选择出口"和"出口导致增长"。文章回顾了十多年来学者们用各个国家的企业数据对这两种假说的验证,对比和评析了相关的研究方法、研究结论、实证结果的原因等,对我国出口企业"生产率悖论"的原因进行总结与探讨,并提出了未来的研究思路与方向。     

When worlds collide: The implications of panel data-based choice models for consumer behavior

Panel data, both diary and scanner, have been analyzed by marketing scientists for over thirty years. One of the important uses of panel data is to better understand consumer behavior by developing and testing hypotheses using the revealed preference data rather than experimental data that uses only self-reported behavior or behavior in a simulated choice environment. The purpose of this paper is to suggest areas of research where panel data can be used to better understand the underlying behavior of the panel members.