Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach

This paper presents a multisectoral model based on Kaldor's approach to explain the importance of structural change and cumulative causation. Divergence in countries' growth rates in Kaldorian models are explained either by different degrees of increasing returns among sectors on the supply side or by different income elasticities of exports and imports on the demand-side, but it is not explained by both factors together. In this vein, a multisector growth model that combines different sectoral income elasticities and different sectoral increasing returns is built to explain how structural changes toward high-tech industries can trigger a process of cumulative causation and ensure higher growth rates in the long run.     

Money,saving and growth in an international economy with perfect capital mobility

The effects of differential national saving rates on current accounts, foreign indebtedness and the welfare of the countries involved are examined within the framework of a two-country, three-asset and one-good model of growth with international capital mobility. It is argued that the persistent current account imbalance and its implied national indebtedness are a natural consequence of differential national saving rates in the world of integrated capital markets, that any direct interference hampering an orderly flow of capital makes both countries worse off, that changes in the exchange rate mainly reflect the differential growth rates of two currencies and have little effect on the current account, and that persistent current account deficits do not necessarily imply an ever-increasing debt burden. While an increase in the saving rate of the high-saving country benefits the low-saving country, an increase in the saving rate of the low-saving country harms the high-saving country both in the short run and the long run.     

Non-homothetic preferences and growth

We observe that countries at low levels of income invest at lower rates than those at higher levels of income. This paper explains this fact as a consequence of Engel's law, i.e. that there is an inverse relation between expenditure and its proportion spent on food. It introduces non-homothetic preferences based on Engel’s law in a simple Solow model. These preferences imply rates of net investment that increase with the level of income as we approach the steady state. Increasing investment rates imply a positive correlation between growth rates and the level of income, at low levels of income, rather than an inverse relation, as the usual Solow model implies. The existence of a positive correlation between income growth rates and income levels, at low levels of income in the presence of this type of preference, has already been shown in a previous paper for a closed economy. The purpose of this paper is to show that this positive correlation persists when we introduce trade into the model.     

A model of endogenous growth that elucidates the complexity of South–North convergence

This North–South model of Schumpeterian endogenous growth combines a market, productivity and knowledge effect. Depending upon the interaction of these effects, various convergent and divergent South–North growth paths occur: for example, full or partial convergence of the Southern technology level to the Northern one, conditional convergence or divergence depending upon the Southern initial technology level and absorptive capacity, higher or lower as well as decreasing or increasing growth rates during the phase of catching up, and equal or higher growth rates of the South compared to the North after catching up. This set of growth paths can better explain the diversity of the empirical observations for economies at different income and technology levels than those generated by existing models. In this new model, convergence based on North–South trade and associated flows of patents (innovations) is guaranteed if the knowledge effect dominates the productivity effect. A larger Southern market expands the area of convergence and can prevent divergence. Not only a larger Southern market, but also a higher Southern steady state growth rate benefit the North so that convergence is desirable for both, the South and the North.     

Viability and Corridor Stability in Keynesian Supply‐Driven Growth

In this paper we reconsider and generalize a two‐dimensional growth cycle model of Skott that is based on supply‐side adjustment mechanisms and a Kaldorian theory of income distribution. This model gives rise to degenerate Hopf bifurcations if behaviour (in terms of rates of growth) is linear close to the steady state. Furthermore full capacity limits lead to viable dynamics from the global point of view if the steady state is locally attracting and to corridor stability with persistent fluctuations when it is repelling. These findings can to some extent also be obtained for a three‐dimensional growth cycle extension of the Skott model, which includes real wage dynamics as in Rose's employment cycle, now turned into economically viable dynamics through appropriate non‐linearities in the assumed adjustment processes of output and prices in the case when the steady state is locally repelling.     

Optimal tariffs,optimal taxes and economic development

Cross-section and time-series data suggest that nations substitute income taxes for tariffs as they develop. This paper confronts the data within the context of a two-country open-economy endogenous growth model in which public expenditure is financed by an optimal tariff and income tax. When the latter is subject to administrative costs, the model predicts that the government will optimally substitute the income tax for the tariff as output rises along the transition. The model is calibrated and a simulation yields time paths for the shares of total government revenue derived from the tariff and the income tax that are consistent with the data.     

城乡居民收入变迁对经济增长影响的实证分析

本文根据1985-2010年的经济数据,利用协整理论、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验等方法对城乡居民收入与经济增长之间的互动关系进行了实证分析。研究表明,从长期来看,农村居民收入与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的双向因果关系,而城镇居民收入与经济增长之间只存在单向的因果关系,而且农村居民收入增长对经济增长的促进作用强于城市居民收入增长带来的作用;短期内农村居民收入增长对经济增长经历了先阻碍后促进的过程,而城市居民收入增长虽不断促进经济增长,但是促进的作用逐渐下降。因此,在持续增加农村居民收入的同时,也要兼顾城市居民收入的增长。     

Transitional dynamics of the R&D growth model with public education

This study analyzes the transition dynamics of the R&D-based growth model with public education, based on [Prettner, K. (2014). The non-monotonous impact of population growth on economic prosperity. Economics Letters, 124, 93–95]. We show that the equilibrium path can be monotonous or oscillatory, but may not converge depending on the value of parameters. Thus, we determine and indicate the sufficient condition for long-run oscillation to emerge. In addition, we find that the technological progress rate speeds up during the long-run balanced growth path when income tax rates for public education rise. This result is consistent with empirical analysis.     

Cost disease in service sector

A higher growth rate of the service sector prices, rather than prices in the manufacturing sector, through time is known as cost disease in the service sector. This paper investigates supply and demand-side reasons for cost disease. First, we present an analysis of the supply side of the cost disease, when services and manufacturing play their role both in the intermediate and final demand. Second, we consider a CES utility function for the consumer, which is a function of two commodity services and manufacturing. The results indicate that there are two reasons for cost disease to occur from the supply side in an economy: first, when the growth rate of total factor productivity and technological progress in services is less than that in the manufacturing sector, and second, when the elasticity of substitution between labor and manufacturing input in the services production function is large and elasticity of substitution in manufacturing production function is small. From the demand side, the result shows that the cost disease occurred if the growth rate of the income elasticity of service is more than the manufacturing sector through time.     

Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model with Productive Government Spending

The goal of this paper is to analyse the effects of fiscal policy upon the long-run balanced growth rate in an endogenous growth model in which sustained per capita growth is the result of productive government spending. Assuming that labour is supplied inelastically, it is shown that increases in non-productive government spending, i.e. public consumption or lump-sum transfers, always reduce the balanced growth rate, whereas there exists a growth-maximizing investment subsidy rate and income tax rate. Moreover, a rise in a tax on consumption increases economic growth if it raises public investment. If labour supply is elastic the elasticity of labour supply crucially determines the growth-maximizing income tax rate and an increase in the tax on consumption may raise or lower economic growth.     

Trade openness,income levels,and economic growth: The case of developing countries, 1970–2009

This paper attempts to investigate the extent to which trade openness has had an impact on the levels of income and rates of growth in a sample of 115 developing countries for the period 1970–2009. Additionally, to assess whether there is an income level threshold for a country to benefit from international trade, the sample is broken down into three mutually exclusive groups of countries: low-income, lower middle-income, and upper middle-income countries. The main novelty of the paper lies on the use, on the one hand, of a new and better trade openness measure and, on the other hand, of non-stationary heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to cope with the problem of cross-sectional dependence. The results show a positive bi-directional relationship between trade openness and income level in the long run, thus suggesting that trade openness is both a cause and a consequence of the level of income. The results for the short run, that is, the link between openness growth and economic growth, go in the same direction.     

The La Marca model revisited: Structuralist goodwin cycles with evolutionary supply side and balance of payments constraints

This research is aimed at investigating the causes of volatility that affect middle‐income countries by studying the La Marca model. Drawing from the open‐economy Goodwin tradition, this model demonstrates that economic activity, income distribution and accumulation of foreign assets dynamically interact, resulting in a pattern of dampened cycles. The study consists in analyzing the characteristics of the model by initially imposing: (I) a constant real exchange rate; (II) a constant net external asset to capital ratio, which is in line with the balance of payments dominance theory and (III) a fixed income distribution. We then (IV) expand the original model by adding an evolutionary supply‐side in which productivity is at the center of the economic dynamic through international technology transfer and the Kaldor‐Verdoorn effect. The results show that (1) the model always converges. (2) The restrictions (I) and (II) remove the cyclical component of the model, which highlights a central difference between La Marca and the original Goodwin model. (3) Fixed income distribution leads to a monotonic trajectory that reduces oscillations. (4) The inclusion of productivity dynamics generates new sources of volatility in the relationship between productivity, capacity utilization and net external assets and is in line with the structuralist argument of structural fragility.     

SOCIAL SECURITY TAX AND ENDOGENOUS TECHNICAL CHANGE IN AN ECONOMY WITH AN AGING POPULATION

This paper presents a classical model of economic growth which incorporates class conflict and induced technological change to show how demographic changes can affect future income distribution and production relations in industrialized countries. Specifically, I use an extended real wage Phillips curve to account for the effects of a social security tax on income distribution and therefore on capital accumulation and employment. In this framework output growth is determined from the supply side by available savings. Analytical and simulation results indicate that the sustainability of an economy with fast population aging over transient paths hinges upon improvements in labor productivity, hence, the specific mechanism of technical progress in place.     

Analysis of Relative Growth Rates Between Domestic and International Earnings of U.S. Based Publicly Traded Restaurant Firms

ABSTRACT

This study explores the relative growth rates in earnings of public restaurant firms for a 20-year period from 1981-2000. No significant differences were found in sales growth between multinational and domestic restaurant firms. However, multinational firms significantly outperformed domestic firms in growth of operating income and pre-tax profitability. Multinational restaurant firms also had significantly lower negative growth in domestic earnings when compared to domestic firms. The results imply that multinational restaurant firms are more efficient than domestic firms in converting sales into profits.     

A Kaldor–Hicks–Goodwin–Tobin–Kalecki model of growth and distribution

This paper presents a Kaldorian model of growth that incorporates both Kaldor's theory of income distribution and his endogenous technical progress function. Growth is driven by demand‐side forces that induce supply‐side accommodation. The model incorporates Hicksian induced innovation; Goodwin Marxist style labor conflict that affects wage bill division between workers and managers; Tobin inflation effects; and Kalecki monopoly power effects. Unlike the neo‐Kaleckian model, a Kaldorian economy operates at normal capacity utilization. Monopoly power plays a role as a barrier to entry rather than determining the functional distribution of income.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Regulations and Growth

The paper explores the linkage between income growth rates and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. So far the evidence is rather mixed, as no robust relationship between FDI and income growth has been established. We argue that countries need a sound business environment in the form of good government regulations to be able to benefit from FDI. Using a comprehensive data set for regulations, we test this hypothesis and find evidence that excessive regulations restrict growth through FDI only in the most regulated economies. This result is robust to different specifications of the econometric model.     

我国税收政策对经济增长的非线性效应研究——基于总量与结构效应双重视角的实证分析

全面分析与科学把握我国税收政策方向与节奏不仅事关政府宏观调控与驾驭经济能力的提升,更是实现有质量、有效益、可持续经济增长的关键。文章首先基于创新驱动经济增长的内生增长模型构建税收对经济增长影响的理论分析框架,然后采用MS-VAR模型与利用中国季度数据,从总量与结构双重视角实证考察我国税收政策对经济增长的影响,结果发现：一是当处于区制1时,无论是税收的总量抑或结构效应,均表现出非凯恩斯主义特征,但并不显著;二是当位于区制2时,税收对经济增长的总量影响表现为凯恩斯效应,而商品税与所得税对经济增长的影响存在显著差异。其中商品税与经济增长正相关,所得税与经济增长负相关。另外无论是税收的总量效应抑或结构效应,在继续维持各自区制内的稳定性方面表现都非常强,从一个区制向另一个区制发生转换的概率非常小。文章研究结论对于创新政府宏观调控方式与增强税收政策调控的前瞻性、针对性与有效性具有非常重要的理论与实际意义。     

Makroökonomische Effekte eines bedingungslosen Grundeinkommens

The introduction of an unconditional universal basic income would change the entire system of income distribution and have far-reaching implications for aggregate labour supply, labour demand and wages. Changes in the labour market would subsequently lead to adjustments in the markets for goods and services, as well as in capital markets. This would impact productivity, prices, income distribution, international competitiveness and economic growth. Furthermore, financing such a policy would affect public finances. This article outlines possible macroeconomic consequences of a universal basic income.     

从经济周期波动“软扩张”到宏观经济双重稳定性增长

我国始于2003年的“软扩张”增长态势在2008年由于实施紧缩性政策而结束．随之我国经济将进入价格稳定和增长稳定的双重稳定增长阶段。在该阶段仍然以总需求管理为主,但需要兼顾总供给管理,经济增长仍然维持在接近自然率的水平上,虽然经济增长速度有所回落,但是经济周期波动的稳定性趋势仍然没有显著变化。     

INCOME DISTRIBUTION,TECHNICAL CHANGE AND THE DYNAMICS OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION

This paper explores the features of a dynamic multisectoral model that focuses on the relationship between income distribution, growth and international specialization. The model is explored both for the steady‐state properties and the transitory dynamics of integrated economies. Income inequality affects the patterns of growth and international specialization as the model uses non‐linear Engel curves and hence different income groups are characterized by different expenditure patterns. At the same time income distribution is also reflected in the relative wage rates of skilled to unskilled workers, i.e. the skill premium, and hence the wage structure affects comparative costs of industries which have different skill intensities. The model is applied to a situation that analyses qualitatively different economic development strategies of catching‐up economies (a ‘Latin American’ scenario and a ‘East Asian’ scenario).