中国对外贸易新趋势的实证分析——基于扩展型贸易引力模型

贸易引力模型作为研究对外贸易影响因素的一个理论方法,近年来相应的理论模型随着贸易的实践演变有了相应的扩展.我国目前贸易自由化进程取得非常大的成果,而且未来还有更加积极的开放措施.到2005年中国已经成为世界第三贸易大国,对于影响贸易流量的因素的探讨成为研究的热点.本文借助近年来在贸易流量分析方面运用十分广泛的引力模型的基本分析框架,对中国与15个贸易伙伴的双边贸易进行实证研究,发现我国的贸易结构已经从传统的要素禀赋理论指导的产业间贸易转化为产品差异化为动因的产业内贸易,而且双边自由贸易协定的制度安排(FTA)对贸易增长有显著的正效应.     

Aid for trade and trade policy in recipient countries

ABSTRACT

This article explores the impact of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows on trade policy in 123 recipient countries over the period of 2002 to 2015. It shows empirical evidence that AfT interventions are conducive to trade policy liberalization. These results apply to both the entire sample and to the sub-sample of least developed countries (LDCs). Additionally, the analysis shows that the lower the development level, the higher the positive impact of AfT inflows on recipient countries’ trade policy liberalization, although above the US$ 4,885.40 threshold of real per capita income, AfT inflows exert no significant impact on trade policy.     

货物贸易、服务贸易与技术贸易发展趋向

通过对世界货物贸易、世界服务贸易和国际技术贸易这三者的发展状况进行对比分析,考察三者在贸易自由化方面的关系,认为技术贸易自由化的阻力是技术贸易、服务贸易和货物贸易中最小的,且发展最快;服务贸易自由化的阻力又小于货物贸易自由化的阻力,其发展速度快于货物贸易,并据此提出我国应采取的对策建议。     

International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics

Despite the liberalization of capital flows among OECD countries, equity home bias remains sizable. We depart from the two familiar explanations of equity home bias: transaction costs that impede international diversification, and terms of trade responses to supply shocks that provide risk sharing, so that there is little incentive to hold diversified portfolios. We show that the interaction of the following ingredients generates a realistic equity home bias: capital accumulation and international trade in stocks and bonds. In our model, domestic stocks are used to hedge fluctuations in local wage income. Terms of trade risk is hedged using bonds denominated in local goods and in foreign goods. In contrast to related models, the low level of international diversification does not depend on strongly countercyclical terms of trade. The model also reproduces the cyclical dynamics of foreign asset positions and of international capital flows.     

Green productivity and bilateral trade flows in an augmented gravity model – A panel data analysis

Motivated by the debate in the trade liberalization and the environment literature, this article examines the effect of enhancing green productivity (GP) on bilateral trade flows. The uptake of per capita ISO14001 certification counts is used to measure GP. The existing literature provides other key determinants of bilateral trade flows. This article employs an augmented gravity model and presents panel data analysis on 26 countries from 1995–2004. Since GP is closely related to quality management, this article also examines the joint effect of the measure of quality management systems (QMS) and the measure of GP. Several fixed effects regression equations are estimated. The results support the hypothesis that enhancing green productivity is a positive and statistically significant determinant of real bilateral exports. The joint significance of the measures of GP and QMS is also supported. This article lends empirical support for the new trade theory and Linder's hypothesis and is consistent with those obtained in the existing literature.     

国际旅游服务贸易问题研究:文献述评

本文从国际旅游服务贸易发展的原因和基础、国际旅游服务贸易竞争力的测度、国际旅游服务贸易与经济增长、国际旅游服务贸易规模的预测模型和旅游服务贸易自由化对旅游服务贸易收益的影响等方面对已有研究进行了评述,以期为后续研究提供一些有益的借鉴。     

Indirect network effects and the impact of trade liberalization: A note

In this note, we examine how trade liberalization affects production structure in the presence of indirect network effects (hardware/software systems). For these purposes we construct a simple two-country model of trade with two incompatible hardware technologies. It is shown that, given that both types of hardware exist before trade liberalization, liberalization and increased intra-industry trade in software products may reduce the variety of hardware technology via intensified network effects. It is also shown that, contrary to the findings of previous studies on intra-industry trade, some consumers may become worse off as the result of trade.     

Comparative advantage,service trade,and global imbalances

The large current account deficit of the U.S. is the result of a large deficit in the goods balance and a modest surplus in the service balance. The opposite is true for Japan, Germany, and China. Moreover, I document the emergence from the mid-nineties of a strong negative relation between specialization in the export of services and the current account balances of a large sample of OECD and developing countries. Starting from these new stylized facts, I propose in this paper a service hypothesis for global imbalances, a new explanation based on the interplay between the U.S. comparative advantage in services and the asymmetric trade liberalization process in goods trade versus service trade that took place starting in the mid-nineties. First, I use a structural gravity model to show that service trade liberalization lagged behind goods trade liberalization, and I quantify the extent of this asymmetry. Second, I show that a simple two-period model can rationalize the emergence of current account deficits in the presence of such asymmetric liberalization. The key inter-temporal mechanism is the asymmetric timing of trade policies, which affects saving decisions. Finally, I explore the quantitative relevance of this explanation for global imbalances. I introduce trade costs in an otherwise standard 2-sector 2-country international real business cycle model. When fed with the asymmetric trade liberalization path found in the data, the model generates a trade deficit of about 5% of GDP. I conclude that the service hypothesis for global imbalances is quantitatively relevant.     

Bifurcations in the evolutionary approach to multilateralizing trade policy

The Doha Round on multilateral trade liberalization, originally intended to better integrate developing countries into the world economy, has been largely considered a failure. With the Doha outcome falling short of expectations, North–South trade remains underdeveloped. Embedding the political economy and the resulting importance of reciprocating trade liberalization in an evolutionary model along Axelrod–Rapoport lines indicates that factor endowments are crucial in triggering trade policies. Their pivotal nature gives rise to bifurcations, thereby tilting policies towards or away from liberalization trajectories. The theoretical insights are reflected in an empirical analysis, thus strengthening the case for a variable-geometry approach.     

Unexpected Effects of the Washington Consensus: Trade Liberalization and Migration Flows in Latin America

The traditional theory of international trade assumes that there is a substitution relationship between international trade and migration flows. However, trade liberalization in Latin America has come with an increase in emigration. This article, based on an econometric analysis for the period 1981–2002, shows that there is a complementary relationship between trade and international migration. One explanation is related to the Washington Consensus. In particular, higher labor market flexibility, in the context of trade openness, has resulted in higher levels of unemployment. Therefore, emigration represents a safety valve that reduces the pressure on Latin American labor markets.     

Migration and trade: Theory with an application to the Eastern-Western European integration

The remarkable increase in trade flows and in migratory flows of highly educated people are two important features of globalization of the last decades. This paper extends a two-country model of inter- and intra-industry trade to a rich environment featuring technological differences, skill differences and the possibility of international labor mobility. The model is used to explain the patterns of trade and migration as countries remove barriers to trade and to labor mobility. We parameterize the model to match the features of the Western and Eastern European members of the EU and analyze first the effects of the trade liberalization which occurred between 1989 and 2004, and then the gains and losses from migration which are expected to occur if legal barriers to labor mobility are substantially reduced. The lower barriers to migration would result in significant migration of skilled workers from Eastern European countries. Interestingly, this would not only benefit the migrants and most Western European workers but, via trade, it would also benefit the workers remaining in Eastern Europe.     

Product quality,firm heterogeneity and trade liberalization

This paper develops a framework for studying the general equilibrium effects of endogenous quality upgrading, a new margin of trade, on the welfare impact of trade liberalization. The theoretical model introduces product quality differentiation amongst heterogeneous firms and focuses on supply-side determinants of international trade. Among other results, in general equilibrium, trade liberalization decreases the share of high-quality varieties in exports and the average productivity of exporters. These changes affect average export price in opposite ways. Nevertheless, trade liberalization in the quality-extended model increases consumers’ welfare by more than in the benchmark model.     

市场潜力、贸易自由化与地区工资差距

在新经济地理学的框架下,本文构建理论模型研究市场潜力和贸易自由化与地区工资差距的关系,根据中国1993－2012年的省际面板数据,采用工具变量二阶段最小二乘法实证检验市场潜力和贸易自由化对地区工资水平的影响效应。研究结果表明,市场潜力和贸易自由化对地区工资水平均有显著为正的影响作用,且二者还存在替代关系。进一步的分析发现,贸易自由化程度较高的沿海地区,其市场潜力对地区工资水平的影响较小,而在内陆地区则恰好相反。     

国际贸易与环境问题溯源及其研究进展

国际贸易把一国的需求和供给与全球市场紧密联系起来,从而对环境产生着深刻的影响。随着经济全球化和国际贸易自由化的纵深发展,关于国际贸易与环境问题的理论探索日益成为国际贸易理论与政策研究领域的热点话题。就一国而言,在大力发展对外贸易、追求贸易自由化收益的时候,会不会陷入国内生态环境恶化的泥潭呢?在保护生态环境的时候,是否又会失去对外贸易的比较优势,削弱对外贸易国际竞争力呢?学术界对此众说纷纭,不同流派从不同角度进行了不同的阐释。本文旨在基于国内外研究文献努力探索国际贸易与环境问题的渊源,归纳分析相关研究成果的进展,从而为研究我国对外贸易的环境效应奠定科学的基础。     

Putting industries into the Eaton–Kortum model

The article introduces the industry dimension into the Eaton-Kortum model of trade. Industries are linked with each other by domestic and international trade in intermediate goods. The model is parametrized using data for eight industries in 1989. It is used to perform several counterfactual simulations that are relevant to today's policy debates. First, the model is used to study the effects of the US–EU trade wars. It is found that trade wars have a greater negative effect on countries with large initial net export positions. It is also found that some trade war scenarios are more beneficial to the US while others to the EU. Second, the model is used to study the effects of trade barrier reductions between the high-income and middle-income countries. The results show that this trade liberalization tends to reinforce the pattern of trade according to technological comparative advantages. The results also show which industries should be targeted for barrier reductions depending on policy goals. The third set of simulations investigates spillovers from the technological growth in the US machinery industry. The results show how geography, technology, and industry links affect the propagation of this growth across countries and industries.     

The Benefits of Free Trade to U.S. Consumers

Much of the literature concerning trade liberalization focuses on estimating the effect of increased trade on aggregate economic indicators, such as the growth in GDP per capita. Although there is a general recognition that trade benefits consumers, there is little research that estimates the direct impact of increased trade on U.S. consumers. We take broad measures of the economic impact of trade liberalization from three authoritative studies and apply economic principles to estimate the impact of increased trade on the income of U.S. households. We find, for example, that U.S. households gained about $2,500 in 2002 from increased trade, or the equivalent of almost six percent of the median household income in that year. We believe these results should be given weight in the ongoing debate regarding the effect of globalization.JEL Classification F130,F140     

贸易自由化视角下新新贸易理论的再审视

新新贸易理论是以企业异质性、不完全竞争和规模经济为特征的国际贸易理论。文章首先从三个方面梳理以往贸易理论对现实的解释力,之后将贸易自由化对新新贸易理论影响的相关文献进行整理发现:通过跨企业的再分配效应,贸易自由化在提高总生产率方面发挥了重要作用,在新新贸易理论的发展中占有重要位置,最后提出新新贸易理论未来可能的发展方向。     

The clash of liberalizations: Preferential vs. multilateral trade liberalization in the European Union

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are characterized by liberalization with respect to only a few partners and thus they can potentially clash with, and retard multilateral trade liberalization (MTL). Yet there is almost no systematic evidence on whether the numerous existing PTAs actually affect MTL. We provide a model showing that PTAs hinder MTL unless they entail accession to a customs union with internal transfers. Using product-level tariffs negotiated by the European Union (EU) in the last two multilateral trade rounds we find that several of its PTAs have clashed with its MTL. However, this effect is absent for EU accessions. Moreover, we provide new evidence on the political economy determinants of trade policy in the EU.     

中美贸易结构性失衡:基于赫克歇尔—俄林模型的分析

把中美贸易失衡问题置于国际分工的新格局下进行分析,不难发现,中美贸易逆差的根本原因在于世界头号服务业强国与世界头号制造业大国之间在服务贸易和商品贸易上发生的结构性失衡。中美贸易失衡与全球服务贸易和商品贸易在自由化进程上的非对称性紧密联系在一起。考虑到全球服务贸易自由化的缓慢进展,以及中国对服务贸易自由化已经做出的承诺水平,中美贸易的结构性失衡在相当长的时期内将难以消除。     

Trade liberalization and the environment: The case of intra-industry trade

Abstract

While a large body of literature examines the environmental impact of trade on the environment, this discussion focuses largely on the context of inter-industry trade. Empirical evidence has long suggested that an increasing share of international trade takes the form of intra- rather than inter-industry trade. In an attempt to fill this gap, the present paper uses a price-setting duopoly model of intra-industry trade to highlight the environmental consequences of trade liberalization when oligopolistic rivalry rather than comparative advantage drives international trade. We find that the environmental impact of trade liberalization depends mostly on two factors, namely, on the nature of pollution (i.e. whether it is local, transboundary or global) and on which country liberalizes trade (i.e. whether it is the ‘clean’ country or the ‘dirty’ country).