The effect of corporate governance on credit ratings: Evidence from China's bond market

This paper examines the association between firms’ corporate governance and credit ratings (both bond ratings and issuer ratings) in China. In addition to considering the financial attributes of bond issuers, we ask to what extent do credit rating agencies consider the corporate governance attributes of issuers? In concept, bondholders are concerned with the financial effects of how corporate governance resolves the agency conflicts between bondholders and managers, majority and minority shareholders, and shareholders and bondholders. We find that corporate governance affects bond issuer credit ratings in China. After controlling for firms’ financial attributes, we find that issuer ratings are positively related to dual‐listing, whether the firm is a state‐owned enterprise, the ownership of the second to the tenth largest shareholder; and negatively related to the relative scale of audit fees. We attribute the positive association between dual‐listing and credit rating to higher quality and transparency of information reported by the dual‐listed firm. The value to bondholders of the implicit government guarantee of debt payments more than offsets the negative association between firm value and being an SOE. Bond rating agencies expect that the change in agency costs with a reduction in the ownership of the largest shareholder benefits bondholders. To credit rating agencies, the scale of audit fees (relative to total assets of the accounting firm) signals interest binding between the client firm and the accounting firm that threatens the independence of auditing and the quality of financial reporting. We also find that bond‐specific attributes: collateral and issue size, are positively related to bond credit ratings.     

On the Role of Receivables in Managing Salesforce Incentives

ABSTRACT

Despite the obvious problems associated with collections, firms routinely sell on credit. Conventional wisdom suggests offering credit is a necessary evil when dealing with insistent cash-constrained customers. This paper provides a more positive view of trade credit. We find that offering credit can enhance the efficiency of incentive contracts with sales personnel. In effect, with a credit sale, a client gets a second chance to generate enough cash. The client's second chance gives the sales agent another opportunity to demonstrate his past diligence to the firm. Moreover, to limit the risk associated with the fact that even a high-quality client may fail to eventually come up with funds, the firm relies on the accrual system. In particular, the agent's (discretionary and early) choice of the bad debt allowance conveys his private information regarding client quality; the payments associated with subsequent collections/default keep such reporting in check.     

Realized jumps on financial markets and predicting credit spreads

This paper extends the jump detection method based on bipower variation to identify realized jumps on financial markets and to estimate parametrically the jump intensity, mean, and variance. Finite sample evidence suggests that the jump parameters can be accurately estimated and that the statistical inferences are reliable under the assumption that jumps are rare and large. Applications to equity market, treasury bond, and exchange rate data reveal important differences in jump frequencies and volatilities across asset classes over time. For investment grade bond spread indices, the estimated jump volatility has more forecasting power than interest rate factors and volatility factors including option-implied volatility, with control for systematic risk factors. The jump volatility risk factor seems to capture the low frequency movements in credit spreads and comoves countercyclically with the price–dividend ratio and corporate default rate.     

Investor visits to corporate sites and cost stickiness

A corporate site visit is an effective way to obtain information on a firm. Most studies focus on the information advantages of corporate site visits, but evidence of their impact on firm operations is limited. In this paper, we investigate whether investors’ corporate site visits affect cost stickiness. Using data on investor corporate site visits to Chinese listed firms from 2013 to 2018, we find that these visits can inhibit cost stickiness. This finding holds in robustness tests and when controlling for endogeneity, including firm fixed effects, and using the Heckman selection model and the instrumental variables method. Further analyses reveal this inhibition is more pronounced for nonstate-owned enterprises and the results are more significant regarding cost stickiness in firms consuming nonlabor materials and firms visited by institutional investors. Moreover, we explore plausible mechanisms through which corporate site visits inhibit cost stickiness, such as through a monitoring channel and a learning channel. Our study contributes to academic evidence on the benefit and value of corporate site visits to firm operations, showing these visits can be a useful way to build connections between investors and firms.     

Measuring Credit Risk of a Bank's Corporate Loan Portfolio Using Advanced Internal Ratings Base Approach

Abstract

The use of technical and advanced approaches in the measurement of credit risk of banks' portfolios has nowadays become a very hot issue. The most recent technical report issued by the Basel Committee in May 2003 has concentrated heavily on the measurement of credit risk using either foundation or advanced Internal Ratings Base (IRB) approaches. This empirical research study attempts to measure credit risk of a bank's corporate loan portfolio, including firms from 10 different Turkish sectors. The monthly observations of the total amount of corporate loans and the total amount of corporate loans at default across various sectors are downloaded from the web page of Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) in a period of 1999-2002. This period covers 47 monthly observations since CBT has captured sectoral corporate loans beginning of 1999. Therefore, the observed sectoral default rates are needed to be simulated to obtain a nicely shaped distribution. Monte Carlo simulation is applied for 1,000 times. Based on the simulated default rates, the expected sectoral default rates are computed. Next, a credit quality rating scale is fitted into sectoral default rates distributions. Finally, the sectoral weights in the whole loan portfolio are multiplied by the expected sectoral default rates matrix, considering cross-sectoral correlations to get the total amount of the bank's credit risk and capital requirement. It is assumed that sectoral monthly default rates are a good representative of the default risk of a sample bank's corporate loan portfolio since no publicly available data on any particular bank's corporate loan portfolio composition exists. Nevertheless, this research may be a good application for measuring the credit risk of banks' corporate loan portfolios using advanced IRB approach.     

Fiscal Policies and Credit Regimes: A TVAR Approach

This work investigates how the state of credit markets affects the impact of fiscal policies. We estimate a threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) model on US quarterly data for the period 1984–2010. We employ the spread between BAA‐rated corporate bond yield and 10‐year treasury constant maturity rate as a proxy for credit conditions. We find that the response of output to fiscal policy shocks is stronger and more persistent when the economy is in the ‘tight’ credit regime. Fiscal multipliers are significantly different in the two regimes: they are abundantly and persistently higher than one when firms face increasing financing costs, whereas they are feebler and often lower than one in the ‘normal’ credit regime. The results appear to be robust to different model specifications, fiscal foresight, alternative threshold variables, different measure of variables and sample periods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Market effects of private equity placement: Evidence from Chinese equity and bond markets

Research has provided empirical evidence for the stock market reaction toward private placement; however, similar research has not been conducted in terms of the bond market. Using the event study method, we empirically examine the explanatory power of the signaling, free cash flow, and wealth transfer hypotheses based on the reaction of the stock market, bond market, and firm abnormal returns to the private placement announcement. The results show that the stock market has a negative reaction toward private placement, whereas the bond market has a positive reaction. The results also show that the scale of private placement is correlated with the severity of the market reaction. Abnormal returns indicate no significant change both before and after the private placement, and they are unaffected by the scale of private placement. These results are consistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis; however, the market reaction is not attributable to the signaling hypothesis and the free cash flow hypothesis. Extensive research shows that the abnormal returns of private placement change dramatically in non-state-owned enterprises and firms with low credit rating bonds, whereas the bond maturity has no significant impact on the abnormal returns—the wealth transfer effect of private placement is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises and firms with low credit rating bond.     

Financing Enterprises in the Czech Republic: Debt and Firm-specific Variables

This paper investigates the effects of firm specific variables on indebtedness, and thus financing decisions in the Czech Republic during the first years of transition. By estimating a Structural Equation Model with latent variables, the paper analyses the determinants of credit demand and supply in order to understand to what an extent they testify the transformation of both enterprises financing strategies and credit allocation policies and thus the emergence of a new financial discipline. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Endogenous trading in credit default swaps

We introduce a real options model in order to quantify the moral hazard impact of credit default swap (CDS) positions on the corporate default probabilities. Moral hazard is widely addressed in the insurance literature, where the insured agent may become less cautious about preventing the risk from occurring. Importantly, with CDS the moral hazard problem may be magnified since one can buy multiple protections for the same bond. To illustrate this issue, we consider a firm with the possibility of switching from an investment to another one. An investor can influence the strategic decisions of the firm and can also trade CDS written on the firm. We analyze how the decisions of the investor influence the firm value when he is allowed to trade credit default contracts on the firm’s debt. Our model involves a time-dependent optimal stopping problem, which we study analytically and numerically, using the Longstaff–Schwartz algorithm. We identify the situations where the investor exercises the switching option with a loss, and we measure the impact on the firm’s value and firm’s default probability. Contrary to the common intuition, the investors’ optimal behavior does not systematically consist in buying CDSs and increase the default probabilities. Instead, large indifference zones exist, where no arbitrage profits can be realized. As the number of the CDSs in the position increases to exceed several times the level of a complete insurance, we enter in the zone where arbitrage profits can be made. These are obtained by implementing very aggressive strategies (i.e., increasing substantially the default probability by producing losses to the firm). The profits increase sharply as we exit the indifference zone.     

Shaping the organisational context for corporate entrepreneurship and performance in Iran: the interplay between social context and performance management

Abstract

Prior research highlighted the importance of an organisational context stimulating autonomous behaviour when trying to increase levels of corporate entrepreneurship. From a social exchange perspective, we argue that firms in developing countries need to complement such supportive practices with performance-oriented practices. Our findings indicate that Iranian firms with an organisational context characterised by an interaction of social context and performance management have more engagement in corporate entrepreneurship, and that corporate entrepreneurship mediated the relationship between the organisational context and firm performance. This provides a better understanding of the way firms in developing economies can shape their organisational context to promote corporate entrepreneurship in order to achieve better firm performance.     

Corporate social responsibility,durable‐goods and firm profitability

Utilizing a two‐period durable‐goods framework, we show that in uncommitted sales markets a firm may earn higher profits as it increases its level of corporate social responsibility (CSR). We find that this occurs even though CSR has no direct impact other than increasing the durable‐goods firm's manufacturing costs. We show that in sales markets, CSR may allow the firm to credibly commit itself to lower production in the future. This, in turn, can enhance their profits even though the CSR activities are costly and provide no direct demand or marketing benefit in our model. This is important because it provides another, hereto unexplored, strategic rationale for the willingness of profit‐maximizing firms to undertake costly CSR activities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The signalling content of asset prices for inflation: Implications for quantitative easing

We investigate the information content of financial variables as signalling devices of two abnormal inflationary regimes: (1) low inflation or deflation, and (2) high inflation. Specifically, we determine the information content of equity and house prices, private credit volumes, and sovereign and corporate bond yields, for 11 advanced economies over the past three decades, using both signalling extraction and logit modelling. The outcomes show that high asset prices more often signal high inflation than low inflation/deflation. However, in some countries, high asset prices and low bond yields are a significant indicator of low inflation or deflation as well. The transmission time of financial developments to inflation can be quite long (up to 8 quarters). For monetary policy, these findings imply that stimulating asset prices through Quantitative Easing (QE) can effectively influence inflation, but that the effects are quite uncertain, both regarding timing and direction.     

中国企业债券特征与风险补偿

利率风险、信用风险、流动性风险是债券市场上常见的风险类型,而债券的特征可以直接或间接地反映这些风险。本文通过分析中国企业债券市场上的债券发行量、已发行时间、债券期限、息票利率、收益率波动性、久期、凸性、到期收益率等债券特征对债券定价的影响,实证检验这些债券特征与债券风险及风险补偿的关系。本文的分析结论认为,这些债券特征显著地影响企业债券的定价,它们与利率风险、信用风险和流动性风险有显著关系,其中对企业债券信用风险的影响最大。流动性风险未被合理定价,低流动性债券未能获得显著的风险补偿。     

Corporate Governance,Investment, and Firm Valuation in Asian Emerging Markets

We investigate the effects of corporate governance and family ownership on firm valuation through investment efficiency in Asian emerging markets. Using 3 years of time series data from the Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia corporate governance score for 10 Asian emerging markets, we find that good corporate governance leads to better or more efficient investment decisions and eventually to higher firm value. We also find that investors reward firms for improvement in corporate governance. The findings do not hold for Asian firms with a family or concentrated ownership structure. The results are not driven by changes in accounting standards in these markets.     

Asymmetric determinants of corporate bond credit spreads in China: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL model

This study utilizes the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model proposed by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) to quantify the potentially asymmetric transmission of positive and negative changes in each of the possible determinants of industry-level corporate bond credit spreads in China. The determinants we consider include the corresponding industry stock price, China’s stock market volatility, the level and slope of the yield curve (i.e., the interest rate), the industrial production growth rate, and the inflation rate. The empirical results suggest substantial asymmetric effects of these determinants on credit spreads, with the positive changes in the determinants showing larger impacts than the negative changes for most industries we consider. Moreover, the corresponding industry stock prices, the interest rate, and the industrial production growth rate negatively drive the industry credit spreads for many industries. In turn, China’s stock market volatility and the inflation rate positively affect the credit spreads at each industry level. These findings may be helpful to investors, bond issuers and policymakers in understanding the dynamics of credit risks and corporate bond rates at the industry level.     

THE TECHNO-ECONOMIC ECOLOGY OF CORPORATE STRATEGY

Abstract C orporate strategy is viewed as a set of guidelines or policy heuristics developed as a response to the contingencies faced by a firm. If the environment is rich in contingencies, as when it is dynamic, complex, and uncertain, the firm's corporate stratedgy is likely to be comprehensive or multi-faceted. If the environment is not rich in contingencies, as when the environment is stable or predictable, the strategy is likely to be quite limited in scope. Data from seventy-nine firms are consistent with this contingency view of corporate strategy. When the perceived importance of each of several activities is correlated with the perceived magnitudes of different forms of competition and technological change experienced by the firm, it is found that (i) the associations between these techno-economic environmental variables and the importance of these activities are generally positive; and (ii) there are striking differences, as between the techno-economic variables, in their relationships with the importance of four areas of stratedgic import that are secured by classifying these activities by function. The observed relationships are explained in terms of contingencies that the techno-economic variables may create for the firm. Plans for further research are briefly outlined.     

Cross-shareholding network and corporate bond financing cost in China

This study examines the effect of cross-shareholding network centrality on the cost of corporate bond financing. Based on a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms that issued general corporate bonds from 2007 to 2018, we adopt a social network analysis method and use three indicators (Degree, Betweenness, and Eigenvector) and the principal factor (Composite) extracted from them to measure the firms’ centrality in the cross-shareholding network. We find that bondholders’ demand lowers bond yield spreads for firms with higher cross-shareholding network centrality. In further analyses, we explore the impact mechanisms using mediator models and find that such centrality promotes resource accessing, information disclosure, and corporate governance, thus decreasing corporate bond financing cost. In addition, we incorporate the moderate effect of geographical location and find that the relationship between cross-shareholding network centrality and corporate bond financing cost is more significant in firms located in remote places.     

Firm financing and growth in the Arab region

This paper documents how firms in Arab countries use equity, corporate bond and syndicated loan markets to obtain financing and grow. Working with a new dataset on issuance activity in domestic and international markets and firm performance, the paper finds that capital raising through these markets has grown rapidly since the early 1990s and involved an increasing number of firms. Whereas the amounts raised in equity and loan markets (relative to gross domestic product) stand well relative to international standards, bond issuance activity lags behind. However, bond financing has gained importance over time. Equity issuances take place primarily in domestic markets, whereas bonds and loans are mostly issued internationally, display long maturities and entail low levels of credit risk. Issuing firms from the Arab region are very large compared to international standards. They also tend to be larger, faster growing and more leveraged than non-issuing firms in Arab countries.     

公司管理层权力与银行信贷融资决策

运用中国上市公司2010—2013年相关数据,考察公司管理层权力与公司融资结构及银行信贷资源配置,结果显示：公司的管理层结构及高管层权力是公司融资政策选择和银行信贷资源配置的重要动因,公司管理层权力越大,管理层向银行借入短期借款越多,公司管理层权力与短期借款结构正相关。在债务约束效应下,管理层可能会出于个人任期和控制权私利的原因做出影响公司融资决策的行为,在公司银行信贷融资中表现为银行信贷融资规模与公司管理层权力呈现负相关关系,即管理层权力越大,公司配置的银行信贷资源越少;同时,公司管理层权力中结构权力与所有者权力对公司信贷决策有重要影响。     

Transition matrix models of consumer credit ratings

Although the corporate credit risk literature includes many studies modelling the change in the credit risk of corporate bonds over time, there has been far less analysis of the credit risk for portfolios of consumer loans. However, behavioural scores, which are calculated on a monthly basis by most consumer lenders, are the analogues of ratings in corporate credit risk. Motivated by studies of corporate credit risk, we develop a Markov chain model based on behavioural scores for establishing the credit risk of portfolios of consumer loans. Although such models have been used by lenders to develop models for the Basel Accord, nothing has been published in the literature on them. The model which we suggest differs in many respects from the corporate credit ones based on Markov chains — such as the need for a second order Markov chain, the inclusion of economic variables and the age of the loan. The model is applied using data on a credit card portfolio from a major UK bank.