后危机时代人民币实际汇率波动 对我国FDI 流入的影响

汇率波动是影响FDI流入的重要因素。基于1994~2012年的时间序列数据,本文构建带有金融危机变量的模型和利用邹氏检验法对后危机时代人民币实际汇率波动与FDI流入的关系进行实证分析。经过实证检验发现,金融危机改变了人民币实际汇率波动与FDI流入之间原有的负相关关系,中国成为外资的"避风港"和外商规避贸易壁垒是后危机时代人民币实际汇率波动有利于FDI流入的两个主要因素。同时,人民币实际汇率的波动更加贴近市场实际汇率水平,会增加FDI的流入,有利于我国经济的发展与稳定。     

The impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and oil exports on real GDP in Syria: Evidence from the ARDL approach

This paper investigates the impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and trade on real GDP and real GDP growth in the Syrian economy over the period of 1990Q1–2010Q4. To this end, we first construct a parallel market exchange rate volatility indicator. Second, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model where we include our indicator of volatility among the main determinants of real GDP. Our findings imply that real GDP can be explained by three main variables: parallel market exchange rate, money supply, and oil exports. The long-run equilibrium reveals that parallel market exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on real GDP compared to the positive impact of money supply and oil exports. In contrast, the short-run impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility on real GDP growth is positive and very small counter to the long-run impact. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term of the estimated ARDL model indicates that real GDP deviation from the equilibrium level will be corrected by about 10% after each quarter.     

Exchange rate jumps and exports: Evidence from China

We apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI ) model to monthly exchange rate returns of China against 81 countries and investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports over the period of 1995–2004. We decompose bilateral exchange rate volatility into continuous and discrete components and find that only the discrete part of exchange rate volatility, that is, the exchange rate jumps, has a significantly negative effect on exports, which to some extent reconciles the old yet unsettled debate in previous literature on the role of exchange rate volatility in international trade. There is also some evidence suggesting that the development of domestic financial market will boost international trade, but it does not help attenuate the negative effect of bilateral exchange rate jump risk on exports.     

Exchange rate volatility and Turkish industry-level export: Panel cointegration analysis

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of the exchange rate volatility on Turkey's export. To this end, the panel cointegration analysis is applied to the data from Turkey's top 20 export industries to major 20 trading partners for the period 1980–2009. Special attention is paid to test for whether employment of country-level trade data instead of industry-level data is subject to the aggregation bias problem in the estimation of long-run cointegration parameters. The results indicate that employing country-level trade data suffers from the aggregation bias in estimating the cointegration parameters for the level of exchange rate and for the exchange rate volatility. The findings imply that (i) the impact of the exchange rate volatility on Turkish exports differs across industries, (ii) Turkey benefits from the depreciation of Turkish lira, and(iii) the foreign income plays a key role in determining the Turkish industry-level exports. The findings increase our insights to explain therecent dynamics of Turkish exports and provide some policy implications.     

Exchange volatility and export performance in Egypt: New insights from wavelet decomposition and optimal GARCH model

To assess the link between exchange rate uncertainty and exports performance in Egypt, this article relies on an optimal GARCH model chosen by information criteria among decomposed series on a scale-by-scale basis (wavelet decomposition). The observed outcomes reveal that this relationship depends intensely on the frequency-to-frequency variation and slightly on the leverage effect and switching regime. Indeed, it is well shown that at the low frequency, the coefficient associated to exchange rate volatility's effect on exports is greater than that at the high frequency and conversely when subtracting energy's share. We attribute the apparently conflicting results to the co-movement between energy prices and those of other commodities, the excessive speculation and the composition of trade partners.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade Flows in sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Evidence

In this article, the authors examine the relationship between the volatility in exchange rates and the volume of international trade in sub-Saharan African countries. Using the gravity equation and annual data for the period 1998–2007, they find a statistically significant and negative correlation between the volatility in exchange rates and the volume of trade. The estimated elasticities show that the responsiveness of the flow of international trade to changes in exchange rate volatility is very small. This suggests that eliminating the volatility in the exchange rates will result in only small increments in the volume of trade. Accordingly, pursuing a policy of exchange rate stability would not be sufficient to significantly increase the volume of bilateral trade in the sub-Saharan African region.     

Exchange rate volatility and Japan–U.S. commodity trade: An asymmetry analysis

Exchange rate volatility is said to affect trade flows in either direction. When increased volatility is separated from decreased volatility, asymmetric analysis reveals even more support for the fact that both increased volatility and decreased volatility affect trade flows in either direction. We add to this new literature by considering 57 industries that trade between Japan and the US. In addition to providing evidence of asymmetric response of their trade flows to a measure of exchange rate volatility, our approach identifies industries that could benefit from increased exchange rate volatility and those that could be hurt. Similarly, we identify industries that could benefit from decreased volatility and those that could be hurt. The overall conclusion is the adverse effects of dollar–yen volatility on the trade between the two countries.     

人民币汇率与FDI关系的实证研究

本文运用协整关系分析和误差修正模型对1979—2008年度人民币双边实际汇率与美国、日本和欧盟对华直接投资的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:对美国而言,从长期来看,人民币对美元升值不仅不会导致中国FDI流入的减少,反而能够促进FDI流入的增加;对日本和欧盟而言,我国国内生产总值的增长率与其对华直接投资之间存在显著的正相关关系;对美、日和欧盟而言,我国的开放度和政策的稳定性对它们的对华直接投资均有显著的正面影响。     

我国外汇储备增长因素的实证分析

我国我汇储备的快速增长及高额的外汇储备规模已经引发了国内学术界的广泛讨论。从我国外汇储备来源看,我国外汇快速增长的主要原因是贸易顺差、外商直接投资和投资热钱。而要控制我国外汇储备的快速增长,必须对外贸政策、外资政策和汇率政策等宏观经济政策进行调整。     

Consumption and exchange rate uncertainty: Evidence from selected Asian countries

We set out to assess the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on real consumption in selected Asian countries. Consumption influences business cycles, which in turn shape short-run monetary policy decisions. Hence, understanding factors driving consumption is appealing to policymakers. To date, few studies have analysed the effects of uncertainty on consumption. The available ones generally focus on the long-run effects, in spite of the fact that the short-run persistence and adjustments to equilibrium are equally relevant. Our study takes these limitations seriously by distinguishing the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate uncertainty on consumption. Using a flexible dynamic panel data technique that allows long-run effects to be homogeneous and the short-run effects to be heterogeneous, we find that uncertainty impedes consumption in the long run. In the short run, however, the effects are immaterial. This evidence remains robust to the measure of uncertainty, asymmetric uncertainty, inflation and the global financial crisis of 2008. By decomposing uncertainty into its temporary and permanent components, we find that the latter have a stronger effect on consumption in the long run than the former. Although both components demand policy attention, the evidence suggests that policymakers should be more concerned with permanent uncertainty.     

How trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment: Results from a structural gravity model

We employ a structural gravity approach to analyse the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and other policies on bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). We use the UNCTAD global database on bilateral FDI stocks and flows. To control for the heterogeneous nature of PTAs, we employ two different indicators of PTA depth. We find that on average signing a PTA increases bilateral FDI stocks by around 30%. Nevertheless, we also find that ‘deeper’ or comprehensive PTAs (e.g., including provisions on investment, public procurement and intellectual property rights provisions) do not have a significantly different impact than signing regular PTAs. Belonging to the EU single market, on the other hand, has a strong impact and increases bilateral FDI by around 135%, and signing a BIT has an effect that is comparable to signing a PTA.     

Exchange rate fluctuations and quality composition of exports: Evidence from Swiss product-level data

This paper studies the relationship between exchange rate movements and the average export quality using disaggregated Swiss product-level data between 1996 and 2015. We find evidence at different levels of aggregation that the average export quality increases in response to a currency appreciation through compositional effects: currency appreciations shift market shares towards goods that are more expensive and of higher quality. This exchange rate effect on quality is more pronounced for differentiated goods and in sectors with a greater scope for quality differentiation. From a policy perspective, this reallocation effect points to the importance of facilitating structural changes in the export composition to increase the resilience of the export sector to exchange rate shocks. Our results also suggest a positive relationship between the average export quality and aggregate export sales. From a methodological point of view, the findings imply that exchange rate pass-through estimations without quality controls tend to be biased regardless of aggregation level or type of data.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Pollution, and the Environmental Quality: A Model with Empirical Evidence From the Chinese Regions

In this study, within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), we empirically investigate the effects of regional openness to foreign direct investment (FDI) and regional economic growth on pollution emission across the Chinese provinces. Our analysis shows FDI contributes to more serious pollution emission, where the effect of the former on the latter is realized through the former’s impacts on the input of natural resources or the industry mix, either of which is associated with the level of total factor productivity. Our analysis also shows that with the continuous growth of output and per capita output, pollution emission and pollution emission intensity would both first rise and then fall, which lends support to the EKC hypothesis.     

Performance and Competitiveness of Latin American Cities: The Human Capital Case

Abstract

Besides the human capital, elements that make Latin American cities competitive include, for instance, their culture or financial maturity. However, the most important challenge for Latin American cities to succeed is how to manage all these variables. The purpose of this study is to identify the contribution of human capital and its relationships and impacts on the performance of Latin American cities. This quantitative, non-experimental, explanatory, correlational, and cross-sectional study observes factors that increase city competitiveness and develop their relationships. The study is based on the Economist Intelligence Unit database of 2012, in which 120 cities were evaluated, particularly contrasting Latin American cities with the top cities in the world and their characteristics. Urban competitiveness in Latin American cities can be predicted partially on the presence of Human Capital. In some instances, we found positive relationships between human capital and the characteristics considered in a city’s performance.     

Causality nexus of exports,FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis

This paper analyzes the causal relationships between exports, FDI and economic growth among the ASEAN5 countries. We have used a three-stage procedure based on unit root, co-integration and causality tests applied to the panel data from 1981 to 2013. The results reveal that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between FDI and growth in the long run, while there is a unidirectional causal relationship from FDI to exports in the short run. Our results also confirm that the export-led growth (ELG) and FDI-led growth hypotheses hold true in the long and short run. To reinforce the FDI inflows, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers, and increase the sophistication of quality exports to compete in the global market. This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the ASEAN5 economies using panel analysis.     

Policy uncertainty and FDI: Evidence from national elections

This paper examines the impact of policy uncertainty on FDI among 126 countries from 1996 to 2015. Using the timing of national elections as a proxy for policy uncertainty, we find that FDI drops significantly in election years, when policy uncertainty increases. The negative effect of policy uncertainty on FDI also depends on the degree of democratization and the political system. In democracies and countries with the Assembly elected president, the decline of FDI in election years is far more pronounced. Our results highlight the role of policy environment and institution in economic development.     

Exchange rates and prices: Evidence from China

This article develops a pricing model that incorporates an industrial organization approach with the traditional quantity theory of money to explain the impact of exchange rates on consumer prices. Using time-series data on prices and exchange rates of China, the model replicates the main features of the observed facts: exchange rates influence consumer prices through changing import prices; money supply and output influence consumer prices following the quantity theory. The estimating results show that exchange-rate pass-through to consumer prices is low and increases from the short run to the long run. The extent of pass-through is likely to depend on markup adjustment and marginal costs.     

拉丁美洲农业利用外国直接投资的实践及启示

拉美农业利用外国直接投资(FDI)的实践表明,外国直接投资在促进拉美农业发展的同时,也给拉美农业带来了诸如被跨国公司支配、转移不适宜技术、造成单一的农业生产结构、环境破坏和劳动力失业等一系列社会经济问题.文章针对拉美农业利用外国直接投资的教训,提出我国农业利用外国直接投资必须遵循的原则.     

Financial market development in host and source countries and their effects on bilateral foreign direct investment

We study an underexplored research question, namely whether financial market development in both host and source countries has an effect on bilateral stocks of foreign direct investment (FDI) and, particularly, whether the effect of financial market development in one member of the country pair conditions the effect of financial market development in the other member. We estimate gravity-type models in a global sample of 43 source and 137 host countries over the period 2001–12. We address reverse causality concerns by restricting the sample to observations where reverse causality, if existent, should be less relevant. Our major and robust findings are that bilateral FDI increases with better developed financial markets in both the host and the source country and that for developing host countries, financial market development in source and host countries functions as substitutes for each other.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Activities of Africa's Sub-Groups

Exchange rates have been highly volatile in Africa, especially since the move to a floating exchange rate system beginning in the 1980s. Generally, the pattern of exchange rate changes differs between Africa's two main sub-groups (CFA and non-CFA groups) due to the different monetary/exchange rate systems they adopted. This article therefore examines the effect of exchange rate volatility on the economic activities in Africa and its sub-groups during the period 1986–2011 using a panel data approach.

Rational expectation theory informs the division of exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated. Both the demand and supply channels are explored to trace the impact of the exchange rate volatility on price as well as aggregate demand and its components. Empirical results reveal differences in the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic activities between Africa's two sub-groups. Exchange rate volatility produced more significant effects in the non-CFA group than in the CFA group.