Negotiating free trade

We develop a dynamic bargaining model in which a leading country endogenously decides whether to sequentially negotiate free trade agreements with subsets of countries or engage in simultaneous multilateral bargaining with all countries at once. We show how the structure of coalition externalities shapes the choice between sequential and multilateral bargaining, and we identify circumstances in which the grand coalition is the equilibrium outcome, leading to worldwide free trade. A model of international trade is then used to illustrate equilibrium outcomes and how they depend on the structure of trade and protection. Global free trade is not achieved when the political-economy motive for protection is sufficiently large. Furthermore, the model generates both “building bloc” and “stumbling bloc” effects of preferential trade agreements. In particular, we describe an equilibrium in which global free trade is attained only when preferential trade agreements are permitted to form (a building bloc effect), and an equilibrium in which global free trade is attained only when preferential trade agreements are forbidden (a stumbling bloc effect). The analysis identifies conditions under which each of these outcomes emerges.     

Corporate Social Responsibility as a Signalling Device for Foreign Direct Investment

A rise in CSR (corporate social responsibility) has accompanied rise in foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing countries in the 1990s. CSR may be serving a signalling function when the entering firm is of an unknown type. Although countries are now competing keenly to attract foreign firms, even so, excessive tax or excess transfers by firms can still cause a Prisoner’s Dilemma structure to the payoffs resulting in an inefficient Nash equilibrium. CSR allows the accommodating firm to reveal its type, making cooperation the equilibrium outcome. The game differs from standard models since signalling changes the payoffs. A unique separating equilibrium exists where only the accommodating firms signal. But, under certain parameter values, a pooling equilibrium where all firms signal, becomes possible. A number of results are derived including the size of CSR expenditure required as a fraction of profits. An example demonstrates their relevance in practical situations.     

Environmental Policy,North-South Trade and FDI

We analyze trade between two countries, called the North and the South. There is one firm in each country and production costs are lower in the South. To serve foreign markets firms may export or engage in FDI. Both countries set tariffs on imported goods. We find that the implementation of an environmental policy by the South may affect the location decision of the Southern firm. When only the North sets an environmental tax, firms engage in FDI if the difference in costs between the two countries is low, otherwise the South exports and the Northern firm engages in FDI. If the South also sets an environmental tax, this does not restrict FDI by Northern firm, encourages FDI by the domestic firm, reduces its environmental damage and increases joint welfare. Finally, in equilibrium the South decides to implement an environmental policy and both firms engage in FDI.     

Foreign Market Entry Under Incomplete Contracts

This paper shows that incomplete contracts serve as a determinant of the mode of foreign market entry – that is exports versus foreign direct investment (FDI). When contracts between two agents within a firm are too costly to be written, the share of multinational firms may be higher or lower compared with a world without contractual frictions. The direction of change depends on the technologically required relative contribution of headquarter services in the joint production process. For example, in industries that use more inputs from the management unit as compared to inputs from a component supplier, the share of firms engaging in foreign direct investment is higher than under complete contracts. This effect may be so strong that the share of multinational firms increases in trade freeness.     

外国直接投资与我国对外贸易失衡

我国与美国、欧盟的贸易顺差增大,外汇储备激增,原因错综复杂,其中,在我国改革开放和特殊的工业化进程中,经济全球化和国际分工加速发展,世界产业结构大调整,外国直接投资持续增加才是根本原因。由于外国直接投资对我国贸易顺差存在着两种效应:直接效应和间接影响,即外国直接投资对我国产生明显的贸易创造效应,同时又具有一定的贸易替代效应,间接增加了贸易顺差,从而加剧了我国的贸易失衡。本文运用协整检验,建立误差修正模型,验证了外国直接投资与我国贸易顺差存在长期均衡关系,即正相关关系。只有从生产领域和外商投资的角度入手才能从根本上缓解贸易顺差的扩大。     

Endogenous market structures and the gains from foreign direct investment

This paper discusses the gains from liberalizing foreign direct investment (FDI) in a two-country setting with endogenous market structure. We investigate two different scenarios. In the first scenario, headquarters costs are large in the foreign country so that the industry is located in the domestic country only. In this case, multinational and national firms may coexist and market concentration may make FDI welfare improving for the foreign country and welfare reducing for the domestic country. In the second scenario, headquarters costs are symmetric and firms will be located in both countries. Here, profitable FDI activities lead to mutual welfare gains, irrespective of market structure effects.     

The Trade‐Off between Foreign Direct Investments and Exports: The Role of Multiple Dimensions of Distance

To serve foreign markets, firms can either export or set up a local subsidiary through horizontal foreign direct investment (FDI). The conventional proximity–concentration theory suggests that FDI substitutes for trade if distance between countries is large, while exports become more important if scale economies in production are large. This paper investigates empirically the effect of different dimensions of distance on the choice between exports and FDI. We find that different dimensions of distance affect exports and FDI differently. There is clear evidence of a proximity–concentration trade‐off in geographical terms: the share of FDI sales in total foreign sales increases with geographical distance. The positive relation between import tariffs and FDI intensity provides further evidence for a trade‐off resulting from trade costs. On the other hand, the share of FDI decreases with language differences and cultural and institutional barriers. The latter dimensions of distance thus affect FDI more strongly than exports.     

外国直接投资与我国进出口贸易的关系——基于不同贸易方式的实证分析

本文运用协整方法和误差修正模型,根据我国1981-2004年的统计数据,考察了我国吸收的外国直接投资对不同贸易方式下的对外贸易产生的不同影响。结果表明:从长期看,外国直接投资与加工贸易进出口之间存在长期均衡关系,而与一般贸易进出口之间不存在长期均衡关系;从短期看,外国直接投资对加工贸易进出口都具有促进作用,而一般贸易进出口对外国直接投资的变动反应不敏感。     

Strategic trade policies with first-mover and second-mover advantages in a vertical structure

With strategic trade policies, we consider first- and second-mover advantages in a vertical structure given the two-part tariff contract (composed of the input price and the fixed fee) of an upstream firm, where a home and a foreign final-good firms export to a third-country market. We find that the upstream firms’ and governments’ preference orderings over sequential versus simultaneous play and over free trade versus a regime of subsidies contrast with early results in the strategic trade policy. Thus, the endogenous market structure is that (i) the potential leader chooses the Leader role with quantity strategies, and the equilibrium trade regime is unilateral subsidy regardless of the nature of goods; (ii) with price strategies, the potential leader chooses the simultaneous timing, and the equilibrium trade regime is bilateral taxes (free trade) when goods are substitutes (complements).     

我国环渤海地区外国直接投资与对外贸易效应的实证研究

本文运用面板数据方法对环渤海地区的对外贸易效应进行了分析,结果表明外国直接投资对整个环渤海地区的对外贸易起到了正向推动作用,环渤海地区的外国直接投资与对外贸易之间存在互补关系。同时分别对该地区7个省市区外国直接投资与对外贸易的关系进行了研究。     

A Simple and Flexible Dynamic Approach to Foreign Direct Investment Growth: The Canada‐United States Relationship in the Context of Free Trade

This paper asks a simple question: Did Wilfred Laurier's dream of free trade with the United States, when it came to fruition in 1989, also impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) into Canada by US multinationals? This paper argues that the customary static econometric approach found in the FDI literature, along with the assumption that policy changes influence only the intercept term, are inadequate to address the question. Instead we introduce an innovative dynamic framework to support the testing of hypotheses on behavioural changes in the variables using a structural break framework. A key conclusion is that prior to signing the free trade agreement US FDI responded only to current growth in the Canadian economy, in a unitary fashion, and current exchange rate shifts. This can be described as a static relationship. The implementation of the free trade agreements between Canada and the USA increased the responsiveness of US FDI to growth in the Canadian economy by a factor greater than two. Furthermore, dynamics are found in the form of a lagged effect for changes in the growth in the Canadian economy and interest rate differentials. These conclusions challenge the dominant view, including that in official policy circles, that the free trade agreement had no impact on US firms’ FDI decisions in Canada.     

A model of demand,productivity and foreign location decision among Taiwanese firms

We develop a theoretical framework to examine the relative importance of firm demand and productivity in firm decisions to export and where to locate foreign direct investments. The model shows that the equilibrium firm decision depends on product technology, consumer preference for product quality, fixed investment costs of establishing a foreign subsidiary, transportation costs and relative wages. Our empirical results confirm the predictions of the theoretical model. Firm-level demand and productivity components are important in explaining the decision to participate in foreign markets with their relative importance depending on the firm's organizational form (exports versus FDI) and the destination of the investments. In general, FDI firms are more productive than exporting firms regardless of FDI destinations. FDI firms also have a higher demand component than exporters and this demand component is stronger than productivity. Finally, among FDI firms, while those with a high demand index and productivity have a significantly higher propensity to invest in high-income countries, firm productivity is the sole determinant of firms undertaking FDI in low-income countries.     

The Impact of FDI Inflow on Domestic Firms’ Uptake of CSR Activities: The Moderating Effects of Host Institutions

This study examines whether foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow helps or hinders local firms’ uptake of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities in a developing host country. The study further examines the interaction effect of host institutions on the relationship between FDI inflow and local firms’ uptake of CSR activities. Results of hierarchical regression analysis of data from a sample of 227 local firms in Ghana, reveal that local firms’ uptake of CSR improves significantly with an increasing inflow of FDI through knowledge transfer. Host institutions are also found to influence the transfer of CSR activities from foreign firms to local firms. However, when the quality of institutions is very high, the impact of FDI on local firms’ CSR activities diminishes. Research and practical implications of these findings are discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

When Do Local Firms Benefit from Inward Foreign Direct Investment? A Longitudinal Study of China's Manufacturing Sector Covering 1998–2007

Using comprehensive panel data on manufacturing firms in China during the 1998–2007 period, this study examines whether and when recipient local firms benefit from foreign direct investment (FDI). Local firms’ productivity improvements by the presence of foreign entrants are estimated, and according to the results, the relationship between FDI and local firms’ productivity shows an inverted U‐shaped pattern, with productivity increasing up to a certain point beyond which a higher level of FDI reduces local firms’ productivity. More importantly, the U‐shaped pattern is found for FDI from both non‐HMT foreign firms and overseas Chinese HMT (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) firms. In addition, the U‐shaped pattern varies across subnational regions such that the threshold at which an increase in FDI reduces productivity is lower for indigenous firms in coastal regions. This suggests that in China, local firms in inland and rural regions are the top beneficiaries of spillover effects. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

长江三角洲地区外商直接投资的对外贸易效应

本文由长三角地区(16城市)FDI与对外贸易的简单数量关系,构筑了地区层面的对外贸易模型,运用面板数据(PanelData)方法对长三角地区FDI的对外贸易效应及FDI在上海双边贸易中的作用进行了分析。结果表明,FDI对长三角地区的对外贸易及上海的双边贸易均起到了显著的正向推动作用,长三角地区FDI与对外贸易之间存在互补关系。     

FDI与生产率增长不确定性:国外研究进展

理论研究认为国际贸易和FDI可以通过示范/模仿、劳动力流动、出口、竞争,以及MNEs与东道国企业之间前向和后向关联等五种渠道产生生产率外溢效应,而技术差距及东道国吸收能力、区域效应、东道国企业特征、FDI特性和经济发展水平等又是影响是否有外溢效应及效应大小的几类典型因素。问题是在这些渠道中发挥作用的因素及因素之间的影响方向此消彼长,使得总体效应具有明显地不确定性,理论模型也因此从一般均衡分析向局部均衡分析发展,但一般性外溢机制仍然是未解之谜。因此,更加微观的行业、地区分析和实证检验或许才是未来的方向。     

区域对外贸易可持续发展指标体系研究——基于浙江省的实证分析

文章探讨了区域对外贸易可持续发展的概念及影响因素,构建了包含22个指标的区域外贸可持续发展指标体系,运用主成分分析方法,以浙江为例,对区域外贸发展水平进行综合评价。研究结果表明,浙江省外贸可持续发展水平总体呈现趋好态势,但在高新技术产品出口、服务贸易出口和利用外商直接投资等领域相对弱势,需要加以重点关注。     

The size of trading blocs Market power and world welfare effects

We construct an n-country n-commodity trade model to analyze the implications of bloc size for (Nash) equilibrium tariffs and welfare. The relationship between the absolute size of (symmetric) trading blocs and their market power is ambiguous, and we illustrate how this relationship varies with model parameters. In contrast, sufficiently large increases in the relative size of a bloc enhance its relative market power and cause the welfare of its country members to rise above the free trade level. We establish the existence of an optimal bloc size, and study the dependence of optimal size on the parameters of the model.     

所有权原则、FDI利得与中美贸易差额

在发达国家大量通过FDI参与国际商业活动的背景下,基于所有权原则的贸易收支统计能够捕捉FDI对贸易收支的影响,从而反映出各国参与国际商业活动的实际利得。根据测算,美国自2000年以来外国直接投资净收益约占其贸易赤字的25%~30%。同时基于所有权统计原则调整后发现,中美贸易顺差根源于FDI,这与现有有关中美贸易不平衡的研究结论大相径庭。     

Managerial incentives and the international organization of production

We develop a model in which the heterogeneous firms in an industry choose their modes of organization and the location of their subsidiaries or suppliers. We assume that the principals of a firm are constrained in the nature of the contracts they can write with suppliers or employees. Our main result concerns the sorting of firms with different productivity levels into different organizational forms. We use the model to examine the implications of falling trade costs for the relevant prevalence of outsourcing and foreign direct investment (FDI).