Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in a Selection of African Countries

Abstract

An exchange rate regime has an important impact on macroeconomic policies within developing countries and therefore essential in macroeconomic policy formation. The main research question is to determine how the variety of determinants would influence the exchange rate regime choice for a selection of 19 African developing countries. A distinction is made between three groups of variables, namely economic fundamentals, economic stabilization aspects and currency crises factors, all affecting a country’s exchange regime choice. The probability of these determinants is then estimated to establish whether the selected countries would choose a fixed, an intermediate or a flexible exchange regime.     

我国外贸竞争力、外国直接投资与实际汇率关系的实证研究

本文基于2005年7月至2008年6月我国外贸竞争力、实际利用外国直接投资与实际汇率的月度数据实证研究了人民币汇率形成机制改革以来我国外贸竞争力、外国直接投资与实际汇率之间的关系,发现三者之间存在一个协整关系,然而只有外贸竞争力是实际汇率的格兰杰原因,实际汇率是实际利用外国直接投资流量水平的格兰杰原因。但是,我国的引资政策和汇率形成机制未能有效提高外贸竞争力,而我国外贸竞争力并不影响实际利用外资的水平,实际利用外资水平也不影响实际汇率的变动。最后根据实证研究结果提出政策建议。     

发展中国家的竞争政策与产业竞争力培养

一般而言.竞争政策是一国产业竞争力的制度基础,但发展中国家产业发展的基础和国际竞争环境使发展中国家政府注重运用选择性干预作为产业竞争力培养的手段,这种选择性干预与竞争政策存在矛盾和冲突.导致了发展中国家竞争政策与竞争法价值与目标的多元化,造成了竞争机构效率低下及竞争法司法裁决的不确定性.发展中国家的竞争机构应当坚持将维护和促进竞争作为竞争政策的价值,将经济效率作为竞争政策的目标.同时通过设定特殊豁免为政府的选择性干预预留空间,并降低这种选择性干预的随意性,从而使竞争政策在产业竞争力培养过程中发挥应有的积极作用.     

人民币实际有效汇率对我国加工贸易影响的实证分析

人民币汇率制度形成机制改革以后,人民币汇率的长期升值趋势将进一步对我国以加工贸易为主的国际贸易产生影响。本文运用协整分析、格兰因果检验和建立回归模型等计量经济学方法对1981-2006年的人民币实际有效汇率与加工贸易进出口的关系进行研究。得出的结论是:人民币实际有效汇率下降会刺激加工贸易进口、出口的增长,对此文章给出合理的解释。     

E-commerce in Least Developing Countries: Summary Evidence and Implications

ABSTRACT

We undertook a review and classification of research on electronic commerce (e-commerce) in developing countries. We analyzed 181 articles published in a broad range of journals covering e-commerce, global information technology, and development issues. The analysis provides a roadmap that not only indicates the current state of e-commerce for development research but also identifies gaps and priorities for future research. This will be of significant value to both academics and practitioners who are working on, or plan to work on, e-commerce in developing countries.     

发展中国家的竞争政策——背景、现状与问题

20世纪80年代末以来的经济自由化改革和经济全球化使竞争政策逐渐成为发展中国家一项重要的微观经济政策。发展中国家的竞争法在法律条文上与发达国家的竞争法有很多相似之处,但发展中国家经济发展的实际也使其竞争法和竞争政策具有自身特点,如多元化的政策目标、广泛而灵活的竞争例外范围、宽松的企业并购限制等。为使发展中国家的竞争政策更好地起到促进竞争、提高市场效率、推动经济发展的作用,发展中国家应确立简洁明了的政策目标和审查标准,正确认识和处理竞争政策与其他经济和社会政策的关系,着重解决严重妨碍竞争的某些突出问题,并加强反垄断政策的国际合作。     

发展中国家对华反倾销的深层次分析

经济全球化使得国际贸易竞争态势更加激烈,中国加入WTO后发展中国家对华反倾销趋势有增无减,这种严峻形势要求我国企业必须对发展中国家反倾销的形势、特点有清醒的认识,结合发展中国家的国际贸易地位,产业结构,及反倾销法律环境制定有针对性的应对策略,这样才能提高我国产品在发展中国家的市场占有率,拓展发展中国家市场。     

Export Credit Agency Activities in Developing Countries

International trade has been considered one of the main reasons for wealth increase in many countries. In the past, more developed countries were able to reach their current prevailing economic conditions mainly by exporting to less developed countries, especially through capital goods and by financing local projects. More recently, the pendulum has swung in the direction of the developing world, especially toward China and South Korea in East Asia, Brazil and Argentina in Latin America, and Hungary and Turkey in Europe. All of these countries have their particular financial and macro-economic pros and cons, but they have in common an export-driven approach. As exportation requires financing, the capabilities of banking systems and institutionalized export credit agencies have become increasingly important since they enhance these countries’ ability to take part in world trade. In this study, individual country facts and financial systems are analyzed in economic terms, and the support of the export credit agencies will also be evaluated.     

Understanding Consumer Ethnocentrism in Developing Countries: Case Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the traditional belief that “consumer ethnocentrism is a phenomenon of developed countries only” is no longer true. To establish this argument, our study assesses the applicability of the Consumer Ethnocentric Tendencies Scale (CETSCALE) to Bangladesh by judging the unidimensionality feature of the same. The methodology is based on a sample of 788 respondents collected from 27 districts in Bangladesh. Statistically significant results show that for three chosen sociodemographic groups, namely, students, job holders, and businesspersons, the original CETSCALE is to a large extent applicable as those groups have shown positive attitudes in retaining 12 to 14 items of the 17 items of the original scale. However, the groups and the respondents as a whole did not agree with the unidimensionality feature of the CETSCALE. Moreover, the results of the study show that Bangladeshi consumers in greater extent prefer to see “Made in Bangladesh” tags when buying consumer products that Bangladeshi businesses can produce locally—a significant potential threat to international business that multinational companies need to address.     

中国货币政策不确定性和宏观经济新闻的人民币汇率效应

基于2012年4月30日至2018年12月17日的银行间7天逆回购操作利率,本文首次使用波动率回归拟合的方法,从政策利率的角度改进中国货币政策不确定性指数,并进一步研究了在不同程度货币政策不确定性的情况下,人民币兑美元汇率对宏观经济新闻的反应。收集和构建10项宏观经济新闻后,本文发现当市场参与者普遍不能较为准确地预测未来政策变化的情形时,货币政策不确定性上升,在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率对宏观经济新闻的反应显著减弱。当货币政策存在较高不确定性时,市场对未来政策判断的分歧加剧,进而人民币汇率对宏观经济新闻的反应不足。在货币政策不确定性较高时,增加央行的汇率沟通,可以发挥其对宏观经济新闻的补充作用,同时增强市场对宏观经济基本面信息的反应。本文不仅丰富了货币政策不确定性的负面影响、经济后果以及宏观经济新闻的人民币汇率效应相关理论研究,而且为未来货币政策制定、调整和实施提供了有价值的依据,为货币当局进行有效外汇市场干预提供了经验参考。     

Risk,Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Behavior in South Africa

This study investigates the role of market sentiment and foreign policy uncertainty in explaining rand price fluctuations using monthly data from 1995M2 to 2017M8. Empirical results from the pair copula analysis indicate no dependence between foreign policy uncertainties and rand returns when market sentiment is controlled for. Furthermore, change in market sentiment seems to drive fluctuations in rand exchange rate suggesting that exchange rate behavior is indeed unpredictable as market sentiment captures both risk and uncertainty. These results are robust across pre- and post-recent financial crisis periods; hence confirming the ability of pair copula to model extreme events.     

经济全球化中发展中国家实现可持续发展的对策研究

经济全球化趋势不可避免,它在促进发展中国家经济增长的同时,也影响到发展中国家的可持续发展。对于发展中国家而言,应当充分利用全球化的有利条件和机遇,要在国际政治经济秩序、环保产业、技术创新和金融可持续发展方面制定相应的对策,实现可持续发展的目标。     

浅析新型工业化过程中的收入分配不公

改革开放20几年来,中国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,但伴随着经济发展的同时,我国收入分配领域出现了收入差距拉大的现象,并且这种现象已成为社会各界普遍关注的焦点。从我国目前收入分配的现状入手,深刻分析了产生这种现象的历史原因和制度原因,探讨解决收入分配不公的措施。     

金融资源配置与收入差距

金融发展是影响收入分配的一个重要因素。我国金融资源配置出现城市、所有制偏向,居民、民营企业不能公平地分享金融资源,导致收入差距不断扩大。改善金融资源的配置对于减少收入差距具有重要意义。     

“H-M-K假说”的检验——基于中国贸易结构数据的实证研究

“H-M-K假说”或克鲁格曼“45度规则”指出,对于经济处于快速增长的国家而言,如果该国与世界其它国家的经济增长率之比等于该国出口需求收入弹性与进口需求收入弹性之比,该国的实际汇率往往不会出现持续的贬值或升值趋势。本文首先拓展了该理论,得出一个与“45度规则”等价但更简洁的理论结论,然后对中国的情况进行了实证检验,检验结果表明:中国不符合“H-M-K假说”之结论。通过对中国进出口商品结构以及日本和中国双边贸易结构的分析,我们认为造成中国不符合“45度规则”的主要原因在于:我国出口商品结构中,初级产品、低附加值产品所占比重过大,高技术含量、高附加值产品占比过小,而进口商品结构则刚好相反。     

资源分配不公决定收入分配不公——再论公平与分配不能联姻

分配不公是目前普遍关心的一个主要问题。本文认为,收入分配不公包含由生产关系所决定的分配、由政府所主持的二次分配和由资源分配不公所导致的收入分配不公,而由经济关系所决定的分配不公是无法改变的。文章提出,我国目前的分配不公不是效率优先引起的,因为我国的效率并不高,而且高效率并不意味着基尼系数扩大,也不一定带来收入差距扩大,基尼系数低也不意味着分配公平。造成我国目前分配差距扩大的首要原因是资源分配不公。第一,一些优势生产要素被垄断行业所控制,如石油、电力、通讯、铁路、金融、烟草等。第二,在运行规则上不公平,如城乡之间政策上的不公平等。第三,执法不公。缩小收入差距的途径一是要深化改革,尽快使改革到位;二是要继续转变政府职能,深化政府改革,使政府肩负起维护社会公平的神圣职责。那种认为只要将效率优先改为公平优先就可以实现公平分配的想法是错误的。     

宏观经济因素与人民币汇率浮动

采用协整检验和误差修正模型等计量经济学方法,就当前国内若干热点变动的宏观经济因素变量对汇改后人民币汇率的影响进行了实证研究,研究结果表明热点变动的中美利差水平、通货膨胀率差异水平以及外汇储备增长率与人民币升值幅度之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。长期来看,利差水平对人民币名义汇率影响程度较大,而短期内,外汇储备因素和人民币汇率自身变动的前期信息对其影响较为显著。     

初次分配中要素收入份额研究综述

20世纪80年代以来,国外关于要素收入份额演变的研究逐渐增多。改革开放以来,随着我国收入分配制度由按劳分配逐渐向按要素分配的变迁,初次分配中要素收入份额问题逐渐引起国内学术界的广泛关注。本文对国内外初次分配中要素收入份额的相关文献作了比较全面的梳理并给予简要评论。     

Mexican Peso Futures and Exchange Rate Volatility

Abstract

The reintroduction of Mexican peso futures contracts in April 1995 resulted from a refocus of governmental policy to the use of market-based mechanisms to stabilize the exchange rate. Interest in the Mexican peso future contracts has been high as investors look to manage their exposure from transactions and investments denominated in pesos. This study utilizes a VAR framework to analyze the relationship between the volatility in the Mexican peso spot market and futures contracts trading activity. Shocks to the exchange rate volatility lead to increased hedg-ing-type activity. Furthermore, an increase in futures contracts trading activity (reflecting additional speculation-type activity) results in a short-run increase in volatility. A Granger Causality test also indicates a statistically significant link between spot price volatility and futures trading activity in the Mexican peso exchange market.

RESUMEN

La reintroducción de los contratos futuros del peso mexicano en abril de 1995, resultó del nuevo enfoque de la política gubernamental de usar los mecanismos de mercado para estabilizar la tasa cambiaria. Ha habido mucho interés en los contratos futuros del peso mexicano, ya que los inversores buscan administrar su exposición a las transacciones e inversiones denominadas en pesos. Este estudio utiliza el marco del VAR para analizar la relación existente entre la volatilidad del peso mexicano en el mercado spot y la actividad de negociación de los contratos futuros. Los choques sufridos por la volatilidad de la tasa cambiaria resultan en un aumento de las actividades del tipo hedging. Además, un aumento en la actividad de negociación de los contratos futuros (que refleja otras actividades de naturaleza especulativa) provoca, a corto plazo, un aumento en la volatilidad. Una prueba Granger Causality también indica un vínculo estadísticamente significativo entre la volatilidad del precio spot y la actividad de negociación del mercado futuro en el mercado cambiario del peso mexicano.

RESUMO

A reintrodução dos contratos futuros em peso mexicano, em abril de 1995, foi o resultado de uma revisão da política governamental, em relação ao uso dos mecanismos baseados no mercado para estabilizar a taxa de câmbio. Os juros dos contratos futuros, em peso mexicano, foram altos, devido ao cuidado dos investidores em administrar o risco das transaç[otilde]es e dos investimentos efetuados em pesos. Este estudo utiliza a estrutura VAR, para analisar o relacionamento entre a volatilidade do mercado local, em peso mexicano, e a atividade comercial de contratos futuros. Choques aplicados à volatilidade da taxa de câmbio contribuíram para o aumento das atividades típicas de hedging. Além disso, um crescimento da atividade comercial de contratos futuros (refletindo uma atividade basicamente especulativa) ocasiona um rápido aumento na volatilidade. O teste Granger Causality indica, também, um vínculo estatístico significativo entre a volatilidade do preço local e a atividade comercial de futuros no mercado cambial do peso mexicano.