BRICS: How important is the exchange rate pass-through?

This paper analyses the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into domestic consumer prices in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries from mid-1990s onwards by using three different econometric approaches (i.e., the single equation approach, the VAR approach and the time-varying parameter approach). It is also studied the role of macroeconomic determinants in ERPT. Our results suggest that (a) ERPT is higher for the emerging markets with mostly floating exchange rates (Brazil, Russia and South Africa) than for the other BRICS countries; (b) exchange rate explains, on average, around the 40% of the price variance for Brazil, Russia and South Africa; and (c) inflation volatility, exchange rate volatility and openness seem to be the key macroeconomic determinants in BRICS countries.     

Financial connectedness of BRICS and global sovereign bond markets

The paper examines the financial connectedness via return and volatility spillovers between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and three global bond market indices represented by the United States of America (USA), European Monetary Union (EMU) and Japan for the period 01 January 1997 to 27 July 2016 (weekly data). We find that Russia followed by South Africa is the net transmitter of shocks within BRICS, implying that the risk arising from these markets may have an adverse impact on others in BRICS. However, China and India exhibit weak connectedness, suggesting that these markets may be useful for hedging and diversification opportunities in BRICS. The networks of pairwise spillover results further confirm this. Among global indices, China appears as highly interconnected with the USA. USA is the strongest transmitter of shocks to BRICS bond indices. The panel data results further confirm the significant determinants of net directional spillover. Thus, we can conclude that BRICS is a heterogeneous asset class even in the case of the bond market. India and China are the markets to look for better risk management strategies.     

“后危机时代”金砖国家的投资合作——中国OFDI视角

金砖国家合作机制的形成是21世纪影响世界经济格局的一个重大事件。文章通过"后危机时代"的新、旧全球化对比,探讨了中国OFDI在金砖国家务实合作中的可能性和现实选择。在梳理有关FDI流动影响因素的文献之后,重点分析了金砖国家在吸收中国OFDI上的潜力和机遇、问题与挑战。结合中国OFDI的投资特征,文章最后提出了促进中国对外直接投资,实现金砖国家经济关系良性互动的四点结论。     

“金砖国家”引进FDI的环境效应比较研究

本文在分析"金砖国家"引进FDI环境效应传导路径的基础上,利用1994-2007年的相关数据,实证检验了"金砖国家"引进FDI的环境效应。研究结果显示,印度引进FDI的环境效应是正向的,其他四国是负向的,由大到小依次是中国、巴西、俄罗斯和南非。     

供给侧改革背景下新兴经济体发展现实比较及延伸思考

经济全球化促进了经济要素全球范围的广泛流动,也催生出了一些发展速度快、对全球影响较大的新兴经济体。研究发现:中国、巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非这些新兴经济体的人均GDP在时间上发生了显著性变化,各个新兴经济体间的人均GDP也存在显著性差别。近十年间,中国经济增长基本保持了平稳状态,GDP的增长率波动不大,巴西、俄罗斯、印度以及南非经济增长波动均较大;中国与其他新兴经济体的货物与服务进出口、国外直接投资均没有显著的相关关系,彼此间影响也不明显。未来中国需要进一步优化产业结构,加强生态、制度环境建设,推动经济社会的全面进步;要加快新一轮高水平对外开放,拓展国际合作空间,建成开放型经济体;促进机会平等,走包容性经济增长之路,实现经济社会可持续发展。     

The Trade Competitiveness of Southern Emerging Economies: A Multidimensional Approach Through Cluster Analysis

This paper investigates the trade competitiveness of the new emerging Southern economies – China, India, Brazil and South Africa (CIBS) – with respect to their main global partners. Starting from the commonly held view that countries with trade patterns similar to those of emerging countries are likely to suffer losses, we propose a multidimensional approach based on cluster analysis, both crisp and fuzzy, as an alternative strategy for assessing similarity in global trade patterns. On the basis of key trade characteristics drawn from the diverse strands of trade theory, we assess the relative position of CIBS within global trade patterns and their evolution over time. Unlike previous studies, our results do not support the hypothesis of the presence of a competitiveness threat from Southern emerging countries towards the main industrialised economies.     

A Time‐series Approach to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle with Panel Data from the OECD Countries

This paper estimates the Feldstein–Horioka equation from 1960–2007 with a panel of 13 OECD countries with the Pedroni method. It is found that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle exists in a weaker form. Structural break tests indicated that there was a break in the mid‐1970s or in the early 1990s. These break dates seem to capture the effects of the last decade of the Bretton Woods agreement and the early years of the Maastricht agreement. In the post‐break periods, this relationship is weaker and the saving retention coefficient has declined, implying that capital mobility has increased between these OECD countries. It is likely that these two agreements may have decreased investor uncertainty and improved capital mobility. However, this conclusion should be interpreted cautiously because alternative explanations for the observed correlation between the saving–investment ratios are possible. For example, Byrne et al. (2009) have argued that the observed correlation between investment–saving ratios could be due to common global factors and therefore may not be useful for testing whether capital mobility has decreased or increased.     

Ethical Cultures in Large Business Organizations in Brazil, Russia, India, and China

This study focuses on comparison of perceptions of ethical business cultures in large business organizations from four largest emerging economies, commonly referred to as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), and from the US. The data were collected from more than 13,000 managers and employees of business organizations in five countries. The study found significant differences among BRIC countries, with respondents from India and Brazil providing more favorable assessments of ethical cultures of their organizations than respondents from China and Russia. Overall, highest mean scores were provided by respondents from India, the US, and Brazil. There were significant similarities in ratings between the US and Brazil.     

On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks

The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly, their performance deteriorated in recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese economy. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented an abrupt decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource‐rich economies. Due to lower commodity demand, the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets in recent years. This view is supported by Bayesian structural VARs specified for the individual BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of the international economy on GDP growth. However, in contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Therefore, the Chinese economy exerts significant spillovers to the other countries under analysis. The change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure especially in countries with abundant natural resources.     

加强金砖国家的经济合作

金砖国家是指巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非五个新兴经济体国家,其经济以快速发展为主要特点。预计金砖国家GDP总量占全球的比重2015年将会上升到23%,2020年将会达到31%,2025年将达到41%,2030年将达到47%,甚至有可能会占到50%以上。金砖国家目前面临的主要问题是收入分配差距比较大、产业层次低、社会保障体系不够完善、受通货膨胀困扰和国际短期资本冲击大。金砖国家应处理好与发达国家和其他发展中国家以及金砖国家内部的合作关系,把握好共同利益,在国际事务中加强政策协调,共同反对贸易保护主义,推动国际金融体系改革,积极应对全球气候变化,实现共同发展。     

China Calls for Overhaul of International Monetary System

After the outbreak of the global financial crisis, there has been an outcry .from developing countries, especially the so-called BRIC （Brazil, Russia, India and China）, that a “diversified”international monetary system should be put in place. At their first formal summit meeting held on June, the leaders of Brazil, Russia,     

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in South Africa: A fractional cointegration approach

The Feldstein–Horioka (FH) puzzle, that is the strong correlation between saving and investment in a world where obstacles to capital mobility are limited, has been studied extensively since it was exposed in 1980. Even though the theoretical and empirical literature has examined many of its potential causes, the puzzle persists. This paper aims at shedding further light on the issue by investigating the relationship between saving and investment in South Africa since 1946 using fractional integration and cointegration techniques to account for high persistence in the series. We find evidence of fractional cointegration between saving and investment, indicating some degree of persistence in the gap between the two variables. We also find a structural break in saving and investment ratios to GDP around 1980, which roughly coincides with the start of a financial deregulation process in South Africa. While fractional cointegration holds before the break, it does not thereafter. In other words, while the FH puzzle is observed before the start of financial deregulation, it subsequently disappears. This suggests that financial deregulation may have loosened the link between saving and investment.     

Export Productivity and Specialisation: A Disaggregated Analysis

The paper analyses export productivity and trade specialisation in China, Brazil, India and South Africa. The investigation calculates a time‐varying export productivity measure using highly disaggregated product categories. The modelling shows that export productivity is determined by real income and human capital endowments. But the empirical analysis also reveals significant differences in export productivity and specialisation for countries with comparable per capita income levels.     

Organizational Culture,Innovativeness, Market Orientation and Firm Performance in South Africa: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

ABSTRACT

For a sample of South African firms, this paper analyzes the relationships of firm performance and a set of organizational measures which includes organizational culture and climate, market orientation and innovativeness. These organizational measures are drawn from three different disciplines–organizational behavior, strategy and economics. The replicative study is framed in an extended model of competing organizational values which have been used in 13 countries including three transition economies (Vietnam, China and Russia). The work has also been done under a variety of conditions–for example, the US in a period of study growth, Thailand during the Asian Crisis and Hong Kong after the handover to China. Comparisons are made between South African results and those of firms from a group of five industrial countries. Market Orientation is the most important explainer of performance of the South African firms, and Innovativeness is also important. Specific elements of Organizational Culture are apparently less important in South Africa than elsewhere.     

The financial determinants of corporate cash holdings: Evidence from some emerging markets

This paper investigates corporate cash holdings in developing countries. In particular, we look into the effect of capital structure and dividend policy on cash holdings in Brazil, Russia, India, and China and compare our results with a control sample from the US and the UK. Our sample contains 1992 firms across these countries for the period 2002–2008. We employ Instrumental Variables analysis to control for the endogeneity of the financial policies (cash holdings, capital structure, and dividend policy). Our results show some evidence that capital structure and dividend policy affect cash holdings. There are similarities between developed and developing countries on the factors determining corporate cash holdings. The results of our cross-country model provide evidence that capital structure, dividend policy, and firm size are important factors in determining cash holdings. Finally, we show that firms operating in countries with low shareholder protection hold more cash.     

Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030

Rapid growth in Asia's emerging economies has boosted export earnings of resource‐rich economies over the past decade. Whether or not those high growth rates continue, how will structural changes in Asia alter the relative importance of their imports of primary products? This paper projects production and trade patterns of Africa and Latin America to 2030 under various growth and policy scenarios in Asia, using the GTAP model of the global economy. We compare a projection assuming relatively conservative economic growth in China and India with a projection in which those economies continue to grow rapidly (albeit slower than in the previous decade). We then compare our conservative growth baseline with two alternative scenarios: one assuming Africa and Latin America choose to invest more in public agricultural R&D to take advantage of Asian import growth; the other assuming China and India dampen that import growth by restricting their imports of key food grains (following the historical pattern of economies such as Japan and Korea). The final section summarises the results and draws out policy implications for Latin America and Africa.     

The big emerging markets

During his tenure as Under Secretary of Commerce, the author was one of the architects of the Clinton administration's Big Emerging Markets policy under Secretary of Commerce Ron Brown. He is now dean of the Yale School of Management. The Clinton policy emerged out of a growing conviction that some ten markets will account for the overwhelming growth potential in world imports, not to mention commensurate growth in economic and political influence around the world. These markets include, in Asia—the Chinese Economic Area (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan), South Korea, Indonesia and India; in Africa—South Africa; in Central Europe—Poland and Turkey; and in Latin America—Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. The administration concluded that, because many of these countries still have important state sectors, and because virtually all are focusing heavily on infrastructure projects that demand the involvement of local governments, U.S. companies need the U.S. government at their side to win a fair hearing. What is more, because of the intensity of foreign competition and the capital demands on these countries, international competitors will be public/private partnerships in which foreign governments provide concessionary financing and aggressive advocacy to support their companies' efforts.This presentation is based on the author's speeches during his tenure as Under Secretary for International Trade of the U.S. Department of Commerce, June 1993 to October 1995.     

Doing business in Brazil: A strategic approach

Brazil has the largest economy in South America, and the second largest in Latin America, offering one of the most promising markets in the world. Along with China and India, Brazil is ranked among the nations with the highest predicted development rates in the next 25 years. In the early 2000s, Brazil accounted for 56% of all foreign direct investment flows to South America and 52.5% of the foreign direct investment stock in South America. Brazil is also a key player in the design and development of the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA), which is scheduled to be effective by 2005. The FTAA is expected to be the world's largest regional trading block. In 2002, Brazil was ranked twelfth amongst the largest economies in the world. Brazil is one of the world's “Big Five” emerging markets, along with China, India, Mexico, and Indonesia. In the past decade, Brazil was second to China among emerging economies for received foreign direct investment. This article elaborates on the main aspects of doing business in Brazil and discusses some of the challenges and opportunities facing the Brazilian economy. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Scope of improvement in water usage efficiency in manual dishwashing: A multicountry study by questionnaire survey

Over recent decades, water conservation have become increasingly an utmost important issue for debate, and this includes the domestic sector. Reducing demand water by improving the efficiency of water use in domestic sector requires an understanding of how water is used and in what ways water savings can be realized. The focus of this global, web‐based, consumer questionnaire survey was to analyze individual consumer attitudes towards using water in manual dishwashing and understand the likelihood of a prospect of changing the daily manual dishwashing method resulting to a more efficient domestic usage of water. This study was designed to investigate the manual dishwashing technique used in the 5249 households of nine different countries ‐ China, Germany, Italy, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, India, South Africa and Argentina. Besides socio‐demographics, technical questions like cleaning steps, hygiene questions motivational question, environmental awareness questions, questions on payment for water and electricity, questions on information sources about household work were included in the study. It was found that the awareness to conserve water was common among the Asian participants but it necessarily was not practiced in the households as individual washing of dishes was found to be quite high. Among the many outcomes, important one was that ‘running tap method’ was found to be most prevalent (86%) among Russian participants, complimenting their detached approach towards conserving domestic water usage. In South American countries like Brazil (66%) and Argentina (51%), high occurrence of ‘running tap rinse’ was found to be a common practice, confirming the lack of conscious use of water in manual dishwashing in the subcontinent. Based on the overall responses, awareness of a new and efficient technique of manual dishwashing could be propagated through the most voted mediums of Internet (81%) and TV (69%).     

The role of endowments,technology and size in international trade: new evidence from product-level data

Using product-level trade data, we empirically investigate the export patterns of more than 150 countries in their exports to the USA, Brazil, India, and Japan. We document strong evidence that exporters specialize according to their relative factor endowments, technology, and economic size. More developed, capital abundant countries are found to export products of higher unit values and a wider range of products to developed, emerging and developing markets. More developed, economically larger, and technologically advanced countries are also the major exporters of new products, spanning a wide range of product categories with high unit values. Our findings provide important insights into the macro phenomenon that a large proportion of the global trade takes place among developed economies, and that the latter are also major exporters to developing markets.