Real GDP, real domestic income, and terms-of-trade changes

Real GDP tends to underestimate the increase in real domestic income and welfare when the terms of trade improve. An improvement in the terms of trade is similar to a technological progress, but when computing real GDP, the national accounts treat the former as a price phenomenon and the latter as a real event. Calculations for 26 countries show that the divergence can add up to more than 10% of GDP in less than two decades. Our analysis has a solid theoretical foundation, being based on the GNP/GDP function approach to modeling the production sector of an open economy.     

On exports and economic growth: the case of Italy

The export-led growth hypothesis for the Italian economy (1960-98) is tested through a VAR model with four macroeconomic variables: an index of the GDP of the rest of the world; the Italian real exchange rate; Italian real exports; and the Italian real GDP. Our results provide clear empirical support for the hypothesis. They also suggest that the Kaldorian approach is very useful in analysing short-run as well as long-run growth and fluctuations of an open economy such as Italy.     

Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor‐augmented mixed‐frequency approach

Assessing accurately global economic conditions is a great challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure of the global GDP annual growth, that is generally considered as the benchmark nowcast by macroeconomists. In this paper, we put forward an alternative approach to provide monthly nowcasts of the annual global growth rate. Our approach builds on a Factor‐Augmented MIxed DAta Sampling (FA‐MIDAS) model that enables: (i) to account for a large monthly database including various countries and sectors of the global economy and (ii) to nowcast a low‐frequency macroeconomic variable using higher frequency information. Pseudo‐real‐time results over the period 2010–16 show that this approach provides reliable and timely nowcasts of the world GDP annual growth on a monthly basis.     

Trade policy,export expansion,human capital and growth

This paper empirically investigates the impact of trade policy on export expansion and on GDP growth in developing countries while controlling for the human capital stock and the initial level of development. By using a simultaneous system estimation we unite the approach found in the export expansion and growth literature with the approach found in papers that estimate the effect of trade policy on growth, while also making several improvements in the estimation of the underlying relationships. The results obtained from our estimation are more credible because of these improvements and therefore have stronger policy implications. We find that outward-oriented trade policies substantially and significantly impact growth in developing countries not only by directly enhancing exports but also through a feedback (or multiplier) effect.     

Is Infrastructure Spending an Effective Fiscal Policy?

The impact of expansionary fiscal policy intended to increase economic growth by using infrastructure‐focused stimulus packages is analyzed by considering the debt to GDP ratio dynamics model. It is shown that for the data characterizing the current state of the US economy the government investment in infrastructure cannot decrease the debt to GDP ratio. The paper contributes to the ongoing fiscal policy debate whether government investment in infrastructure is an effective approach to boost the economy.     

Governments,Exports and Growth: Responding to the Challenges and Opportunities of Globalisation

We live in an increasingly globalised world. Trade has consistently grown faster than GDP and has been an important driver of world growth. What role should government play in this process? This paper considers the rationale for government action and the merits of various policies focusing on the UKs experience: the benefits of openness to trade and overseas investment and the merits of tackling barriers that discourage greater participation by firms in international markets. It also considers whether this approach needs to be adapted given current trends in globalisation, concluding that a continued emphasis on openness and addressing market failures will be welfare enhancing.     

Impact of trade openness on GDP growth: Does TFP matter?

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study is to empirically explore the impact of trade openness on GDP growth initiating with the idea that trade openness cannot be fully characterized through the different openness measures only, we propose to account for total factor productivity (TFP) development level as an additional dimension of countries’ trade integration. Our empirical application is based on 35 years’ balanced panel of 82 countries spanning 1980–2014. To address the potential endogeneity issue, we use the system GMM estimator developed for dynamic panel data models. The results outline that there exists an interesting non-linear pattern between trade openness and GDP growth when TFP development level is taken as an intervening variable into account: trade may have a negative impact on GDP growth when countries have specialized in low-TFP development level; trade openness clearly boosts GDP growth once countries exhibit a minimum threshold of TFP development level. Therefore, there is some pattern of complementarity between trade openness and TFP development level so that the higher the TFP development level, the higher the impact of the trade openness on GDP growth.     

On the Causal Links Between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries

We analyse the Granger causal relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI) and GDP in a sample of 31 developing countries covering 31 years. Using estimators for heterogeneous panel data we find bi‐directional causality between the FDI‐to‐GDP ratio and the level of GDP. FDI has a lasting impact on GDP, while GDP has no long‐run impact on the FDI‐to‐GDP ratio. In that sense FDI causes growth. Furthermore, in a model for GDP and FDI as a fraction of gross capital formation (GCF) we also find long‐run effects from FDI to GDP. This finding may be interpreted as evidence in favour of the hypotheses that FDI has an impact on GDP via knowledge transfers and adoption of new technology.     

Five Major New Goals in 1 lth Five-Year Plan, Per Capita GDP Double

On the new goals in the 11th Five-Year Plan as average annual GDP growth rate of 7.5%,double the per capita GDP tan 2000,new incrase of usban employment and transfer of rural laor reaches 4.5 million respectively.     

Law,finance, and emerging market returns

This paper investigates how legal foundation influences the return distribution, the growth rate of market capitalization, the ratio of market capitalization to gross domestic product (GDP) and the correlation structure of emerging market indices with developed market indices. Using a sample of 24 emerging markets, we find that emerging markets from the French [civil] law systems earned higher returns, have higher correlations with the world market portfolio, higher average growth rates in market capitalization and lower average market capitalization to GDP than their English common law counterparts. Finally, most emerging markets returns are more highly correlated to the returns of developed markets with an English common law tradition. Our results suggest that diversification potential is highest with the English common law emerging markets but that the diversification benefits come at the cost of reduced returns.     

浙江省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

改革开放以来,浙江省对外贸易和GDP双双高速增长,是我国外贸快速发展的典型代表。基于浙江省1978-2005年GDP及进出口贸易数据的协整分析表明:浙江省实际GDP和实际出口总额、实际进口总额之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。格兰杰因果检验则得出进口增长是经济增长的单向原因,经济增长是出口增长的单向原因的结论。在此结论基础上,提出了浙江省对外贸易发展的政策建议。     

Real-Time Forecasting Revisited: Letting the Data Decide

Real-time GDP forecasting, also often known as “nowcasting,” produces estimates for current-quarter real GDP growth, typically based on a centered value from a set of estimates from incoming indicators. These real-time measures are usually intended to be data-based and to not be based on forecaster judgment or add factors. Even so, estimation methodologies in this research area—and prior versions of the system we use—typically have been constrained by using various “fixed” relationships, such as a fixed historical sample horizon and fixed empirical specifications for the indicator variables. This paper describes the methodology, estimation, and software code for a more flexible real-time GDP system that allows the data to decide the best real-time GDP forecast for varying sample horizons and varying specifications for each indicator variable through time. Our system uses data on key indicators as they become available (accounting for the “jagged-edge” nature of the data in the current quarter) to generate an estimate of current-quarter real GDP growth, with weights for combining the indicator-specific estimates as determined by the strength of the indicators’ historical relationships to GDP growth. The improved system searches across a variety of specifications and across sample horizons to choose the best specification as determined by a minimum Schwarz criterion test while also searching for the best sample horizon for minimizing the mean absolute error for a recent prediction period. We illustrate the operation of the system for real-time estimates of real GDP growth over a specific quarter, and examine the properties of the estimates and the implications for predictions. We also discuss potential additional applications and demonstrate a specific application for real-time predictions of the monthly change in payroll jobs.     

Thresholds of financial development in the Euro area

We analyse the dynamics of financial development and economic growth in the Euro area as these countries went through considerably higher levels of financial development. Using a balanced panel data of 38 years from 1980 to 2018, we offer new evidence on the finance–growth nexus. We show the presence of non-linearity as there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run. Estimating the thresholds in the finance–growth nexus, we notice a threshold effect at 74%–86% of GDP for domestic credit; 51% of GDP for stock turnover ratio; and 65% of GDP for stock market capitalisation. We notice that exceeding the threshold causes deceleration in economic growth as too much finance results in crowding out effect for productive economic activities. The panel Granger causality test results show that financial development should be associated with optimal growth performance. These findings in the Euro area provide some useful policy implications to the emerging and developing economies in designing their financial development strategies.     

Linear and nonlinear growth determinants: The case of Mongolia and its connection to China

We investigate growth determinants for Mongolia as a small emerging economy with respect to China as its large neighbor. Our causality analysis during 1992 to 2017 reveals significant linear as well as nonlinear relationships in growth explanation. China's GDP and coal prices, together with some of their linear and nonlinear lagged components, predict Mongolia's GDP, where a 1 % increase in China's GDP relates to a 1.5% increase in that of Mongolia. Current exchange rates and the nonlinear components of lagged consumer prices also explain growth. Our results underline the role of macroeconomic drivers of growth in emerging economies.     

Dynamic causality testing for EKC hypothesis,pollution haven hypothesis and international trade in India

This study examines the causality relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth (GDP) and CO₂ emissions along with the level of trade (exports and imports) taking place in India. The study uses data obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of World Bank Group for the period 1982–2013. The study employed the dynamic multivariate Toda-Yamamoto (TY) approach that uses the modified Wald (MWALD) test. Among the major findings of the study are: the existence of both Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in India. The other findings of the study are: FDI is causing exports; exports are causing imports; imports are causing CO₂ emissions; and finally CO₂ emissions and GDP are causing each other. This finding concludes mainly two things. First, India imports more of pollution-intensive manufactured goods. Second, FDI is causing GDP in India but through CO₂ emissions.     

从FDI看世界经济波动对我国经济增长的影响

随着我国对外开放的不断发展,外国直接投资已成为世界经济波动影响我国经济增长的一个重要经济变量。世界经济增长率下滑,我国外国直接投资流入增长率上升,推动我国经济高速增长;世界经济增长率上升,我国外国直接投资流入增长率下降,阻碍我国经济高速增长。本文对近20年来世界经济增长率与我国外国直接投资增长率以及国民生产总值增长率的相关性进行分析,充分验证了上述论点。     

Secular Outlook for Global Growth: 2015–34

Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Research Team employs a multi-time-horizon asset allocation approach that analyzes trends among three temporal segments: tactical (short term), business cycle (medium term), and secular (long term). This report focuses exclusively on secular trends that may influence the long-term outlook for various asset classes. Key takeaways are the following:??Slower growth is expected to result in a historically lower interest-rate climate and less of a tailwind to equities. ??With the economy providing the backdrop for asset markets, our secular GDP growth forecasts are the foundation for developing long-term capital market assumptions. ??Our forward-looking, global approach emphasizes the key components of GDP growth—population and productivity—and calculates the critical drivers that have been most predictive. ??Over the next 20 years, global growth is expected to be somewhat slower, due primarily to deteriorating demographics in most countries, particularly aging populations in advanced economies. ??Emerging Asia is expected to grow more slowly, due in part to less catch-up potential after a period of rapid growth, though developing economies in general should continue to experience faster relative growth. ??Slower world growth will lead to lower-than-historical-average interest rates and provide less of a boost to equity returns, but global opportunities for investment are still expected to expand.     

中国股市、银行与经济增长

通过利用经济增长指标、股市指标和金融发展水平指标,对中国股市、银行业和宏观经济数据进行实证研究发现:我国银行业发展水平和贷款率指标,对于人均实际的GDP增长具有一定的正向推动关系,而且成交额比率与人均实际GDP的增长和储蓄存款存在着反向作用。从而得出的结论是,我国银行业的发展水平对宏观经济的影响要远远强于股市的影响作用。     

ARE FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND STABLE BALANCED GROWTH EQUILIBRIUM SIMULTANEOUSLY ATTAINABLE?

This paper presents an examination of the sustainability of national debt and economic growth, and the growth effects of government debt and income taxation. Results show sustainability of national debt and economic growth under the primary surplus rule. Fiscal policy and balanced growth are compatibly sustainable if and only if the government sets a long‐run target debt/GDP (gross domestic product) ratio within a reasonable range. Results also show that a rise in the long‐run debt/GDP ratio reduces the balanced growth rate. Based on these two results, the long‐run debt/GDP ratio is greater than zero if the government aims to maximize the balanced growth rate.     

人力资本在经济增长中的作用：中国和巴基斯坦的比较研究

本文通过比较分析中国和巴基斯坦的经济增长 ,检验人力资本在各自国家经济增长中的作用。我们的结果是 :GDP与用除小学教育外不同教育水平的在校学生比率代表的人力资本有正相关关系 ,但是 ,当我们用各级学校的在校学生比率与劳动力相乘 ,反映参与GDP生产的劳动力的人力资本存量时 ,中国的GDP与所有各教育水平所表示的人力资本量成正相关关系 ,巴基斯坦小学层次的量则仍与其GDP增长成负相关。从总体上 ,对于两个国家来说 ,后一种测量方法要比用简单的在校学生率要好。