US trade wars in the twenty‐first century with emerging countries: Make America and its partners lose again

In a context of rising protectionist rhetoric, this paper looks at the potential impact of trade wars initiated by a change in US trade policies. We use a static multicountry, multisector general equilibrium model to evaluate six modalities of three potential trade wars—for a total of 18 scenarios—between the USA and China, between the USA and Mexico, and a combination of the two previous conflicts. In each case, we evaluate various forms of trade retaliation by the US partner(s): the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the USA , an import duty that minimises welfare loss, a duty that minimises terms‐of‐trade deterioration, a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue, and finally a Nash equilibrium. We conclude that there is no scenario in which the US government augments its domestic welfare or GDP . There may be sectoral gains in value added in the USA , but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors. While losses for China are relatively small, potential losses for the Mexican economy are significant. There are also free riders of these trade wars. Finally, the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly.     

Demand shifts and willingness to pay in applied trade models

Emerging issues facing open economies, including global value chains and non-tariff measures, have important implications for demand that are often not well suited for analysis with the supply-side mechanisms commonly found in economic models – namely taxes and productivity. The aim of this paper is to provide a methodological approach for implementing demand-side changes. Specifically, the approach adapts the Armington equation to model a change in consumers' willingness to pay for imports. To illustrate, we estimate the impacts of the World Trade Organization's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA). Estimated ad valorem equivalents of the TFA are applied as demand-side shocks to consumers' willingness to pay in a global applied general equilibrium model and the results compared to those obtained using Samuelson's iceberg approach. We find that the iceberg approach results in a technical change which increases the productivity of imports, raising real GDP, while the willingness-to-pay approach causes a smaller rise in real GDP, although trade increases further. The impact on the terms of trade differs significantly between the two mechanisms, with prices falling as costs fall, under the iceberg method, and rising with increased willingness to pay. Our results clearly show that the choice of mechanism matters.     

Welfare-optimal trade and competition policies in small open oligopolistic economies

Standard trade theory claims that free trade is welfare-enhancing. We show that this is not the case if at least one sector of the economy is a Cournot oligopoly. In a simple small open economy with one oligopolistic and one competitive sector, welfare is an inverted U-shaped function of tariffs. Hence, an optimal tariff rate can be determined. The optimal rate depends on the number of firms in the oligopolistic sector. Below the optimal level, the competitive sector overproduces, i.e. oligopolistic good have a higher marginal effect on welfare. Increasing tariff rates stimulate the production of the oligopolistic sector by dampening imports. Under balanced trade, this reduces exports and production in the competitive sector, thus shifting resources to oligopolistic goods production. We also find that given certain levels of protection, perfect competition is not welfare maximal and, hence, not desirable. The finding explains why developing economies with imperfect competition are often reluctant to embrace trade liberalization and why, conversely, countries with high levels of external protection may be unenthusiastic about competition theory.     

The welfare effects of free trade agreements in quantitative trade models: A comparison of studies about Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

We compare different methodological approaches to predicting the welfare effects of trade policy experiments. We focus on studies that estimate the economic effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Methodologically, the studies can be divided into those employing computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and structural gravity (SG) models. We compare and critically discuss differences in the estimated trade cost reductions and in the economic models employed, and how these can explain the relatively wide range of economic effects found in the different TTIP studies. We conclude that reasonable estimates of the welfare effects for the TTIP partners are between 0.5% and 2%.     

Effects of multilateral and preferential trade policy reform in Africa: The case of Uganda

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects on production, trade and economic welfare of current trade policy regimes throughout the world on Uganda relative to other economies. This will be a benchmark against which to examine various multilateral and preferential trade policy scenarios that might emerge over the next decade as part of the WTO's Doha Round and from the expected move later this decade towards Economic Partnership Agreements with the European Union. The results suggest modest gains or worse for Uganda, in part because it already has low tariffs and ready preferential access to rich-country markets. Several important caveats to this type of analysis are stressed though, before drawing out some trade and policy implications for Uganda.     

The economic consequences of corporate tax rates reductions in the EU: Evidence using a computable general equilibrium model

In a globalised world, governments are eager to attract foreign investors by lowering corporate tax rates. Recent trends point towards a revival of a race to the bottom in corporate income tax (CIT) rates in developed economies. EU countries have been active in this respect. A generalised fall in CIT rate could prove detrimental to tax revenues and trigger increase in other taxes to meet fiscal policy objectives. However, it could also spur investment and growth and prove to be a good fiscal policy strategy if, as a result, the corporate tax base increases. The final economic and fiscal impact of a reduction in CIT rates is therefore unclear. Using a CGE model, we find that uncoordinated tax reforms significantly impact national economies and third‐country effects can be significant when large countries implement CIT rate cuts. Small countries are better off unilaterally reducing their CIT rate at the expense of other EU countries. We find that negative spillovers are mitigated when the country reducing its CIT rate restores its budget balance by cutting either public expenditures or social transfers. A larger degree of non‐EU capital mobility also tends to reduce the negative spillover effects of unilateral CIT rate reductions.     

Strategic trade policies with first-mover and second-mover advantages in a vertical structure

With strategic trade policies, we consider first- and second-mover advantages in a vertical structure given the two-part tariff contract (composed of the input price and the fixed fee) of an upstream firm, where a home and a foreign final-good firms export to a third-country market. We find that the upstream firms’ and governments’ preference orderings over sequential versus simultaneous play and over free trade versus a regime of subsidies contrast with early results in the strategic trade policy. Thus, the endogenous market structure is that (i) the potential leader chooses the Leader role with quantity strategies, and the equilibrium trade regime is unilateral subsidy regardless of the nature of goods; (ii) with price strategies, the potential leader chooses the simultaneous timing, and the equilibrium trade regime is bilateral taxes (free trade) when goods are substitutes (complements).     

On the interrelation between consumer and environmental policies in the European Community

The paper describes the different development of consumer and environmental policy at Community level, since 1972. It points out that consumers, today, are better off than 20 years ago, while the environment is worse off. One of the main features of the evolution is that consumer policy asks for better value for money, whereas environmental policy is concerned with consumption, limits to growth, concern for tomorrow, global problems, future generations etc. National and Community administrative infrastructure has developed differently over the past twenty years. So has public awareness towards environmental and consumer issues. Consumer interest in environmental matters is limited, though problems in water, air and soil pollution, nature protection, and waste management would need consumers' interest. The paper denounces the limitation of consumer policy to consuming questions and the absence of interest in consumption problems.

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über die Beziehung zwischen Verbraucherpolitik und Umweltpolitik in der Europäischen Gemeinschaft

Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag beschreibt die unterschiedliche Entwicklung der Verbraucherpolitik einerseits und der Umweltpolitik andererseits, so wie sie auf Gemeinschaftsebene seit 1972 betrieben werden. Er führt aus, da\ es den Konsumenten heute besser geht als vor 20 Jahren, während es der Umwelt schlechter geht als vor 20 Jahren. Ein Hauptkennzeichen der Entwicklung ist, da\ die Verbraucherpolitik einen höheren realen Gegenwert für ausgegebenes Geld anstrebt, wogegen sich Umweltpolitik mit Konsumverzicht, Grenzen des Wachstums, Zukunftssorgen, globalen Problemen, künftigen Generationen usw. beschäftigt. Die Verwaltungsinfrastruktur auf nationalem und übernationalem Niveau hat sich während der letzten 20 Jahre unterschiedlich entwickelt; dasselbe gilt für das öffentliche Bewu\tsein, für Umweltfragen und Verbraucherfragen. Das Verbraucherinteresse an Umweltfragen ist nicht sehr ausgeprägt, obwohl Probleme des Trinkwassers, der Luft- und Bodenverschmutzung, des Naturschutzes und der Abfallentsorgung ein stärkeres Engagement der Verbraucher verlangen würden. Der Beitrag prangert die Einengung der Verbraucherpolitik auf kaufbezogene Verbraucherfragen und das Desinteresse an grundlegenden Konsumproblemen an.

     

中国与南亚地区贸易竞争性与互补性实证研究

利用2000年~2016年UN Comtrade数据库提供的数据,借助显示性比较优势指数和贸易互补性指数,对中国与南亚地区贸易竞争性及互补性进行实证研究。结果表明:中国在工业制成品上存在较为明显的比较优势,南亚地区在初级产品上的比较优势较为明显,两地虽然存在着部分比较优势重叠的商品,但在整体上,中国与南亚地区间的双边贸易仍然有着较强互补关系。     

我国与日本蔬菜贸易均衡关税率的计量分析

我国的蔬菜在世界蔬菜生产和贸易中占有重要地位。目前,我国蔬菜的第一大出口去向是日本。从日本的蔬菜进口来源看,最大的蔬菜进口来源国是我国。本文首先运用蔬菜进口函数模型、通过中国、美国、新西兰这三个日本的蔬菜主要进口来源国的相互比较,分析我国蔬菜在日本市场上的竞争力。在此基础上构建均衡关税率"零售价均衡模型",对我国与日本蔬菜的贸易均衡关税率进行计量分析。得出的主要结论是,我国蔬菜在日本市场上有着较大的竞争力,另外,日本通过提高关税率来保护其蔬菜产业是违背市场经济规律的。     

环境污染与江苏省产业国际竞争力的分析

确定了江苏省8个主要出口产业的环境污染强度EPS与国际竞争力RCA3之间的相关系数,分别作出评价。其中3个出口产业为环境污染上升,国际竞争力下降,2个出口产业为环境污染上升,国际竞争力也上升,2个出口产业为环境污染下降,国际竞争力也下降,1个出口产业为环境污染下降,国际竞争力上升。通过对EPS构成的分析可以找到主要的污染因素。     

中美两国柑橘的国际竞争力比较分析

我国柑橘产业迅猛发展,目前种植面积、产量分别位居世界第1位和第3位。本文对比分析了中美两国柑橘的进出口贸易状况,运用国际市场占有率、显示性比较优势指数以及贸易竞争力指数对中美两国柑橘的国际竞争力进行定量分析,结合迈克尔·波特的产业竞争理论剖析了中美两国柑橘国际竞争力差距的形成原因,并提出提升我国柑橘国际竞争力的建议。     

Estimating the impact of trade specialization and trade policy on poverty in developing countries

This paper investigates the impact of trade specialization on poverty. The empirical findings show that in developing countries manufacturing exports contribute to poverty reduction. But agricultural exports have a more significant effect on poverty in low-income countries. The analysis also confirms that trade specialization reduces poverty but under specific trade specialization patterns and policy conditions.     

Upgrading and Competitiveness Within the Export Manufacturing Industry in Central America,Mexico, and the Dominican Republic

The competitiveness of the export manufacturing industry (EMI) in Central America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic has been significantly eroded by increasing competition from Asian countries in the past decade. This paper examines technological upgrading strategies followed by export-oriented manufacturing firms that operate under various investment attraction and export promotion schemes such as maquila and free zones in order to face the increasing Asian competition. In particular, it aims to study why the strategies followed in the two main sectors of the EMI—electronics and apparel—have had significantly different impacts on export competitiveness. Although the empirical evidence shows that both sectors have mainly followed process upgrading strategies, and to a lesser extent functional and inter-sectoral upgrading, the type of governance of the global value chain, sector-specific characteristics, and corporate strategies help explain their diverging impacts on competitiveness.     

我国运输服务贸易逆差及其国际竞争力

运输服务贸易逆差被认为是我国运输服务贸易缺乏国际竞争力的标志。本文研究了我国运输服务贸易的现状和逆差产生的原因,对我国运输服务贸易的贸易专业化系数和显性比较优势指数进行了比较分析,认为我国运输服务贸易逆差的产生源自于运输服务的产能不足,统计数据的分析难以得出我国运输服务贸易缺乏国际竞争力的结论。     

Gender effects on consumers’ symbolic and hedonic preferences and actual clothing consumption in the Czech Republic

During the last decade or so consumer products have become more divided by gender than ever before. These changes in marketing practices are likely to introduce, alter or increase any existing gender differences regarding consumers’ product preferences and actual consumption. This is a very timely study examining how gender relates to consumers’ interest in clothing artefacts and their preferences for the self‐ and social‐symbolic and hedonic meanings of clothing. The influence of gender on actual purchase behaviour towards clothing is also explored. The proposed hypotheses are tested on a large‐scale sample of some 1,000+ respondents drawn in the Czech Republic. Using analysis of variance tests, gender differences were found with regard to all but one consumer behaviour phenomenon. No gender effect was found only regarding consumer preference for clothing affiliation symbolism. The study contributes to the theoretical development and empirical evidence in the field of gendered symbolic and hedonic consumption of clothing artefacts. Its findings also suggest possible actions by fashion marketers, as well as some interesting venues for future research.     

Business and Professional Ethics in Transitional Economies and Beyond: Considerations for the Insurance Industries of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary

This paper examines several key aspects of the ethical environment facing the insurance industries of Poland, The Czech Republic and Hungary as they complete the transition from Communist insurance systems built upon state-owned monopolies to viable private domestic insurance markets, and then seek to harmonize their markets with the single insurance market of the European Union. Since many types of ethical problems encountered during the transition are unlikely to diminish significantly as a result of either privatization or regulation of the insurance markets of these countries, measures are identified that should help to improve the ethical environments of these markets.     

外商直接投资与我国农产品和食品贸易关系的研究

本文运用计量经济模型,对我国农产品和食品贸易与FDI之间的关系进行了研究,结果表明我国农产品和食品进口、出口和总贸易量与FDI之间皆存在长期稳定的均衡关系,而且这种关系具有互补性。在此基础上,本文还对各变量之间是否存在因果关系进行了检验,以便进一步揭示二者之间的联系。同时结合我国农产品和食品贸易与FDI的特点,对结果进行了相应的讨论。     

Divergent diffusion: Understanding the interaction between institutions,firms, networks and knowledge in the international adoption of technology

Why do certain technologies diffuse globally while others spread only within certain areas of the world? I analyze the uneven process of international technology diffusion by focusing on how institutions moderate the impact of firm, network, and knowledge characteristics on the adoption of technology. The study shows that better economic institutions lower transformation costs; that similarities across social institutions minimize transmission costs; and that effective political institutions reduce transaction costs for technology diffusion. The impact of each institution-type on the diffusion process is based on the relative weight of the three different knowledge dimensions embedded in the technology. Complex technologies are most affected by economic institutions; tacit technologies are most dependent on social institutions; and systemic technologies are most influenced by political institutions.     

中美两国运输服务贸易的国际竞争力比较分析

通过对中美两国运输服务贸易的国际竞争力比较分析,得出我国运输服务贸易的国际竞争力比较弱的结论。鉴于运输服务贸易的重要性及我国现实国情,政府应将运输服务贸易作为发展我国服务贸易的重点之一,努力提高其国际竞争力,即加强中国运输产业自身发展,加强对运输服务贸易的政策导向及扶持力度;加强专业人才培养和引进,提高运输服务质量;努力开拓海内外市场,实现规模经营。