US trade wars in the twenty‐first century with emerging countries: Make America and its partners lose again

In a context of rising protectionist rhetoric, this paper looks at the potential impact of trade wars initiated by a change in US trade policies. We use a static multicountry, multisector general equilibrium model to evaluate six modalities of three potential trade wars—for a total of 18 scenarios—between the USA and China, between the USA and Mexico, and a combination of the two previous conflicts. In each case, we evaluate various forms of trade retaliation by the US partner(s): the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the USA , an import duty that minimises welfare loss, a duty that minimises terms‐of‐trade deterioration, a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue, and finally a Nash equilibrium. We conclude that there is no scenario in which the US government augments its domestic welfare or GDP . There may be sectoral gains in value added in the USA , but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors. While losses for China are relatively small, potential losses for the Mexican economy are significant. There are also free riders of these trade wars. Finally, the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly.     

Can the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership minimise the harm from the United States–China trade war?

Using ex post tariff schedules for the first time, it was found that the global gains provided by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are not enough to overcome the negative impacts of the United States–China trade dispute. While trade tensions cause China's welfare loss to be more than twice as large as the United States, they provide some trade diversion to RCEP members. But of concern is if India successfully delays the conclusion of the RCEP even by a year, there will be a global loss of US$17.7 billion. The RCEP is also beneficial for the emerging economy of Vietnam and the high‐tariff‐imposing Korean economy. The results obtained here are, however, conservative as reduction in non‐tariff barriers and other positive spillover effects of trade liberalisation related to investment and productivity improvements due to competition or increased intra‐industry trade could not be accounted for.     

中澳铁矿砂价格谈判对中国各产业的影响

文章采用可计算一般均衡模型评估了铁矿砂价格变化对中国各产业的影响。模拟结果显示,铁矿砂进口价格的大幅度上升,给中国各产业带来了一定的负面影响,其中受影响较大的产业主要是铁矿业、钢铁业、机械设备业、煤、汽车、建筑、纺织服装业以及羊毛等。借中澳FTA谈判之际,若中澳可以达成较为有利的铁矿砂基准价格,将会使得中国由于铁矿砂国际价格普遍上涨所承受的负面影响程度缩小,且从澳大利亚进口铁矿砂的比重将有较大幅度提高。     

Economic Effects of Regional Tax Incentives: A General Equilibrium Approach

SUMMARY

Regional governments often adopt tax incentive programs to attract private investments to their jurisdictions. This behavior is no different in Brazil, where such incentive policies have been growing in the last few years due to a combination of factors. This paper uses a general equilibrium approach to evaluate the effects of a regional tax incentive program for attracting investments. The analysis focuses mainly on the financing of new private investments through tax revenue relief and public investment expenditures by regional and federal governments. The interregional general equilibrium model used to run the simulations captures the effects of regional interdependence and of vertical relationships between the governments. The results show that the effects on the employment and household welfare of consumers have been positive for the region implementing such an incentive policy, namely the State of Rio Grande do Sul. However, the effect on real GDP may not follow the same course, which could occur mainly because of the specialized pattern of production in the State.

RESUMEN. Los gobiernos regionales adoptan programas de incentivo fiscal con el propósito de atraer inversiones a sus jurisdicciones. Este comportamiento no cambia en Brasil, donde dichas políticas de incentivo han crecido en los últimos años debido a un conjunto de factores. Este estudio se basa en el enfoque del equilibrio general, para evaluar los efectos de un programa de incentivo fiscal implementado para atraer inversiones. El modelo del equilibrio general interregional usado para realizar simulacros capta los efectos de la interdependencia regional, y de una relación vertical entre los gobiernos. Los resultados muestran que los efectos sobre el empleo y el bienestar doméstico de los consumidores son positivos para la región que implementa este tipo de política de incentivos como ocurre, por ejemplo en el estado de Río Grande do Sul. Sin embargo, el efecto sobre el PIB no sigue el mismo camino, lo que podría ser resultado, principalmente, del patrón de producción especializado del Estado.

RESUMO. Os governos regionais adotam com freqüência programas de incentivo fiscal a fim de atrair investimentos privados para suas jurisdições. Este comportamento não é diferente no Brasil, onde tais políticas de incentivo têm crescido nos últimos anos devido a uma combinação de fatores. Este estudo usa uma abordagem do equilíbrio geral para avaliar os efeitos de um programa regional de incentivos fiscais para atrair investimentos. A análise enfoca principalmente o financiamento de investimentos privados novos através da redução da arrecadação fiscal e do investimento público pelos governos regionais e federal. O modelo do equilíbrio geral inter-regional usado nas simulações capta os efeitos da interdependência regional e de relacionamentos verticais entre os governos. Os resultados mostram que os efeitos sobre o emprego e o bem-estar doméstico dos consumidores são positivos para a região que implementa tal política de incentivo, a saber, o estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Entretanto, o efeito sobre o PIB real pode não seguir o mesmo caminho, e isto ocorreria sobretudo devido ao padrão de produção especializado no estado.     

The European Union–West Africa Economic Partnership Agreement: Small impact and new questions

Despite recent modifications, the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union (EU) and West African (WA) countries is still being criticized for its potential detrimental effects on WA countries. This paper provides updated evidence on the impact of the EPA on these countries. A dynamic multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium trade model with modeling of the dual–dual economy and with a consistent tariff aggregator is used to simulate a series of new scenarios that include updated information on the agreement. We also go beyond estimating macro-level economic effects to analyze the impacts on poverty. The policy simulation results show that the implementation of the EPA between the EU and WA countries would have marginal but positive impacts on Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire and negative impacts on Benin, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo. The impact on poverty indicators in Ghana and Nigeria would be marginal. From the perspective of WA countries, this study supports the view that recent EU concessions are not sufficient and that domestic fiscal reforms are needed in WA countries themselves.     

我国煤炭出口的国际竞争环境分析

对世界煤炭贸易概况、我国煤炭出口的主要竞争对手、我国煤炭出口的优势和劣势进行分析;根据研究提出了提升我国煤炭出口竞争力的对策建议。     

山东省胶合板的国际竞争力研究

基于2003-2005年胶合板的进出口数据,通过测算山东省胶合板的国际市场占有率、出口产品质量和显示性优势指数分析了山东省胶合板的国际竞争力。结果表明,山东省胶合板具有出口优势,但是产品国际竞争力不强,直接影响了产业的竞争效益。     

我国制造业国际竞争力的显示性指标研究

我国作为一个发展中大国,制造业是国民经济的基础性产业,研究我国制造业的国际竞争力,明确我国制造业的核心竞争优势,在全球化浪潮席卷世界的今天至关重要。本文采用反映绝对竞争优势的制造业增加值、国际市场占有率以及反映相对竞争优势的比较优势指数、贸易竞争指数4项显示性指标,对我国制造业国际竞争力的现状进行考察,并以此为基础提出相关建议。     

我国芦笋的国际比较优势分析

本文对我国芦笋的国际比较优势进行了实证分析,通过对我国芦笋的世界市场占有率、出口价格、显性比较优势指数和可比净出口指数的测算,结果表明:我国芦笋的出口价格稳步上升;世界市场占有率总体较高,呈现波动状况;显性比较优势指数很有优势,呈先升后降;可比净出口指数也很高,总体比较稳定。     

环境保护对工业品外贸出口的影响——以重庆为例

本文以重庆为例,重点选取化工医药、矿产品、交通运输设备制造三大出口支柱产业,通过ERS综合评价分析,引用三大指标RCA3、TSC和VDE进行外贸工业品出口量与国内外环境保护关系的分析,发现环境保护强度的大小与产业国际竞争力的强弱之间存在一种非规律性的变化关系,对贸易的专业化水平和产品出口比较优势而言,环境保护强度越大,对产品的出口和专业化水平的提高越有利,因此应该加强对产业的生态规划;如果不考虑环境保护政策效果的时滞性,环境保护强度的提高对产品出口增长率有一定的负面影响。     

我国农药出口结构与竞争力的实证分析

入世后我国农药出口已进入新的发展阶段。本文系统分析了农药出口产品结构、地区结构、市场结构和企业结构的变动,并利用显示比较优势指数(RCA)、国际市场份额、市场渗透率及贸易竞争指数(NTB)等评价了我国农药出口的比较优势和竞争优势。实证分析显示,我国农药出口竞争优势很强,且提升速度较快。比较来看,农药出口的比较优势处于中等水平,且在加入世贸组织后提升不明显。     

我国胶合板国际竞争力的比较分析

本文首先回顾了我国胶合板的生产与贸易现状;然后依据三种不同的国际竞争力测算方法,在选取不同类型国家的基础上,进行了胶合板国际竞争力的国际比较分析;紧接着,从理论与实证角度,对不同指数测算结果进行了系统的比较;最后,通过整合与归纳不同的分析结果,提出了对于提升我国胶合板国际竞争力的几点启示。     

我国粮食出口结构与国际竞争力的实证分析

本文在系统分析了我国粮食出口的规模和结构的基础上,运用实证研究方法对我国粮食的国际竞争力进行了评价。研究结果表明:目前我国粮食对国际市场依赖性不强,且多数年份保持净出口,但竞争力在波动中呈现出下降的趋势,出口结构也不尽合理,需采用一揽子的政策鼓励粮食生产。     

环境污染与江苏省产业国际竞争力的分析

确定了江苏省8个主要出口产业的环境污染强度EPS与国际竞争力RCA3之间的相关系数,分别作出评价。其中3个出口产业为环境污染上升,国际竞争力下降,2个出口产业为环境污染上升,国际竞争力也上升,2个出口产业为环境污染下降,国际竞争力也下降,1个出口产业为环境污染下降,国际竞争力上升。通过对EPS构成的分析可以找到主要的污染因素。