粤港区域产业转移及产业升级路径——CEPA协议效应与泛珠区域合作影响分析

CEPA及其补充协议的实施改善了粤港两地经贸关系,港资服务业的进入如火如荼。文章通过分析CEPA签订前后粤港珠区域核心城市的服务功能及粤珠地区制造业优势的变动情况来探讨香港服务业扩散对广东及珠三角地区产业结构演进的影响,进而从泛珠区域合作角度提出对粤港产业转移与产业升级的相关政策思考。     

Welfare implications of trade liberalization and fiscal reform: A quantitative experiment

This paper studies the welfare implications of revenue-neutral trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs for developing economies using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We analyze how different combinations of tariffs – on imported consumption goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods – and taxes – on consumption, labor income and capital income – affect the transitional and long-run welfare. We report three main findings. First, trade liberalization programs financed by consumption and labor income taxes tend to result in substantial welfare gains, but financing the lost tariff revenue through capital income taxes can have an adverse impact on welfare. Second, a significant fraction of welfare changes is due to transitional effects stemming from the allocation of resources in response to changes in tariffs and taxes. Third, trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs often translate into much larger welfare gains in countries that are more open to international financial markets.     

Local costs of distribution,international trade costs and micro evidence on the law of one price

This paper connects trade flows to deviations from the law of one price (LOOP) in a structural model of trade and retailing. It accounts for the observed cross-country dispersion in prices of goods, based on retail price survey data, by focusing on two sources of goods market segmentation — (i) international trade costs, and (ii) non-traded input costs of distribution. I find that a multi-sector Ricardian trade model, ala Eaton–Kortum, augmented with a distribution sector, can account for the average price dispersion for a basket of goods fully and generates 70% of the variation in price dispersion across goods within the basket. While tradability of goods is important in explaining the average price dispersion for the basket of goods, distribution costs are important in explaining why, within the basket, some goods show more price dispersion than others.     

Real Exchange Rate Targeting,Macroeconomic Performance and Sectoral Income Distribution in Developing Countries

This paper uses a two-sector general equilibrium model to analyse both steady-state and stochastic dynamic effects of two real exchange rate targeting policies: a constant-target, and a band-target rule. In the model, targeting is implemented by imposing a stochastic fully-rebatable tax on the consumption of non-traded goods. The first result is that when comparing only steady states, a real exchange rate appreciation favours labour and capital in the non-traded sector, while factors in the traded sector are favoured by depreciations. A second result is that both rules reduce the volatility of investment and the trade balance. The third key result is that in the stochastic economy sectoral income distribution outcomes depend on the design of the constant and band-target rules. In particular, a variety of outcomes may be generated depending on the magnitude of the constant target, or the amplitude of the band, relative to the volatility of productivity shocks.     

两岸经贸关系新发展对香港之影响及其对策

台商大陆投资规模扩张与地域转变、两岸贸易高速增长与非均衡发展以及两岸经贸人员往来规模持续增长对香港产生了重要影响,香港不仅获得了更多的发展机会,也面临着诸多挑战.香港应积极采取有效措施,提升服务水平与综合竞争力,不仅要充分利用背靠泛珠三角的地缘条件,依靠自身优势,在泛珠三角地区积极与其它各方开展合作,还要充分利用在两岸经贸交流中的中介地位,深化与台湾的经贸合作,从多层面促进经济的持续发展.     

Tariff and Consumption Tax Reforms in a Developing Tourism Economy

This paper examines the effects of a coordinated tax reform by replacing import tariffs with point-by-point increases in consumption taxes for a small-open developing tourism economy. Foreign tourists demand for the non-traded goods provided in the informal sector of the host economy, resulting in a tourism-induced terms-of-trade effect. The presence of inbound tourism lends a support to positive tariffs even for a small open economy. The indirect tax reform of this kind can increase residents’ welfare and government revenue when the initial tariffs are relatively larger to the consumption taxes.     

深圳与香港物流业竞争力分析

随着深圳物流业的崛起,深圳与香港物流业竞争力的比较越来越受到业界的关注。通过在生产要素成本、组织成本和要素质量三个方面对深圳和香港物流业的竞争力的实证分析,表明深圳的要素成本比香港有明显的优势,但是深圳的制度成本比香港要高。在生产要素质量方面,深圳与香港的“硬要素”差距不大,“软要素”差距比较大。深圳中低端物流业务的竞争力正在接近甚至超越香港,将促使原本在香港境内的此类业务向深圳、珠江三角洲等地区转移。     

Terms-of-Trade and Trade Balance: Some Empirical Evidence of Asian Economies

This study examines the impact of terms-of-trade and oil price on trade balance in Asian economies. Generally, the results of the normalized cointegrating vectors show that the impact of terms-of-trade on trade balance is different across economies. An increase in oil price or permanent oil price will lead to a decrease in terms-of-trade while the impact of an increase in temporary oil price on terms-of-trade is ambiguous. Generally, terms-of-trade, domestic demand, foreign demand, and oil price (permanent oil price, temporary oil price) are important in the determination of trade balance in the short run and long run.     

CAN THE POOR COUNTRIES CATCH UP? MIXED RESULTS FROM EXTENDED SOURCES OF GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE EARLY 21st CENTURY

Illustrative projections of per capita income gaps between two groups of developing economies and the rich economies for the period 1998–2030 are made on the basis of an extended sources of growth equation which accounts for interactions between trends in capital and labor productivity. The equation takes into consideration Kaldor–Verdoorn effects, possible impacts on labor productivity of trade liberalization and/or astute industrial policy, human and physical capital accumulation, employment and population growth, shifting shares of labor in income and traded goods in output, shifts in capital productivity, productivity growth retardation due to convergence and specific regional effects. Under optimistic assumptions about all these factors and in the historically unprecedented absence of adverse macroeconomic shocks over three decades, relative and absolute convergence of both regions to the rich countries may be possible.     

Openness and optimal monetary policy

We show that the composition of international trade has important implications for the optimal volatility of the exchange rate, above and beyond the size of trade flows. Using an analytically tractable small open economy model, we characterize the impact of the trade composition on the policy trade-off and on the role played by the exchange rate in correcting for price misalignments. Contrary to models where openness can be summarized by the degree of home bias, we find that openness can be a poor proxy of the welfare impact of alternative monetary policies. Using input–output data for 25 countries we document substantial differences in the import and non-tradable content of final demand components, and in the role played by imported inputs in domestic production. The estimates are used in a richer small-open-economy DSGE model to quantify the loss from an exchange rate peg relative to the Ramsey policy conditional on the composition of imports. We find that the main determinant of the losses is the share of non-traded goods in final demand.     

FDI and Industrial Restructuring in Post‐WTO Greater PRD: Implications on Regional Growth in China

This paper aims at studying the investment flows in the Greater Pearl River Delta region (Hong Kong‐PRD) in China and its impacts on industrial restructuring at the firm‐level using a business survey with the Hong Kong‐PRD entity acted as a core‐periphery economy. The critical effects of gravity distance on transaction costs in the determination of investment flows are examined statistically by a gravity model by incorporating a hypothetical infrastructural construction project. Survey findings show that the evolution of the cross‐border operations at the main core has directed the outward FDI flows and the subsequent industrial structural adjustments of the core‐periphery economy. This paper has presented a typical illustrative case for further studies of investment flows and its impacts upon industrial adjustments and performance in other regions in China especially after the WTO accession. Its implication on regional economic growth is also discussed.     

Non-traded goods and optimal trade policy in a cash-in-advance economy

This paper develops a standard trade model of a small open monetary economy with two traded and one non-traded goods. Money is introduced through a generalized cash-in-advance constraint where the share of goods purchases that must be made using cash, varies across sectors. We find that free trade may be harmful so that alternative policy instruments may be considered to improve welfare. In addition, we study and compare the optimal tariff formula and the optimal consumption tax structure. In the presence of a monetary distortion of the non-traded good, a consumption tax may not Pareto dominate a tariff although the latter bears an additional production burden. This corroborates the theory of second best.     

Productivity, terms of trade and the ‘home market effect’

This paper analyzes the international transmission and welfare implications of productivity gains and changes in market size when macroeconomic adjustment occurs both along the intensive margin of trade (changes in the relative price of existing varieties of tradable goods) and the extensive margin (creation and destruction of varieties). We draw a distinction between productivity gains that enhance manufacturing efficiency and gains that lower the cost of firms' entry and of product differentiation. Countries with lower manufacturing costs have higher GDP but supply their products at lower international prices. Instead, countries with lower entry costs supply a larger array of goods at improved terms of trade. Output growth driven by demographic expansions, as well as government spending, is associated with an improvement in international relative prices and firms' entry. While trade liberalization may result in a smaller array of goods available to consumers, efficiency gains from deeper economic integration benefit consumers via lower goods prices. The international transmission mechanism and the welfare spillovers vary under different asset market structures, depending on trade costs, the elasticity of labor supply, and consumers' taste for varieties.     

Using survey data to assess the distributional effects of trade policy

This paper develops a method to estimate the general equilibrium distributional effects of trade policies using household survey data. Trade reforms cause the domestic prices of traded goods to change and this, in turn, triggers a series of general equilibrium effects. Among these, I estimate the impacts of trade on the prices of traded goods, non-traded goods, and wages. By combining the estimates of the consumption impacts and the labor income impacts, I am able to assess how trade policies affect households across the entire range of the income distribution. An application of the procedure to the study of the distributional effects of Mercosur shows that the average poor and middle-income family in Argentina has benefited from the trade agreement.     

United Airlines Makes Connections Easier for Passengers

United is the only U.S. carrier connecting Pearl River Delta Region to offer customers SkyPier ferry service and pier-side check-in. United Airlines is the first U.S. airline to offer customers convenient travel between the Pearl River Delta cities and Hong Kong International Airport using the SkyPier ferry service and pier-side check-in, beginning today.     

我国出口退税政策的贸易与经济效应研究——基于局部均衡模型的分析

通过将出口退税政策变量纳入局部均衡COMPAS模型,从产业层面上分析出口退税政策如何影响进出口行业的产出、贸易、收益等经济指标,并利用中国纺织服装品对美国出口贸易的有关数据,实证模拟中国出口退税政策变化对中美两国纺织业的生产、贸易和收入的影响。结果表明:平均而言,出口退税率每提高1个百分点,中国纺织品出口美国的价格将大约下降0.93%,而中国纺织品对美国出口量将增加2.86%左右,全行业收入大约增加1.83%;而美国纺织行业的产出减少1.9%,全行业收入减少2.2%。     

CEPA对广东货物贸易影响的实证研究

观测CEPA实施4年来香港和广东贸易流量变化,运用引力模型研究广东和香港贸易流量的影响因素,并对CEPA实施后区内贸易创造和贸易转移效应进行实证分析.研究得出CEPA的建立在货物贸易方面并未对广东产生明显影响.原因一方面在于CEPA的优惠贸易安排主要针对香港原产地产品,对于内地货物贸易影响很小,更积极的意义在于服务贸易和投资等领域;另一方面香港的转口贸易所占比重相当大,这在一定程度上影响了自由贸易区功能的发挥.     

Trade,savings and a nontraded good

In this note we derive a sufficient condition and necessary condition for the adoption of free trade to decrease savings in terms of any good in a model with two traded goods and one non-traded good. We assume more generally than Pattanaik, and following Pasinetti, that a fraction of total capital is owned by labor.     

繁荣还是衰落—香港物流前景分析

香港经济一直在寻求转型的方向,随着内地贸易开放程度加深和香港产业结构变化,作为支柱产业的物流,其发展前景也倍受关注.当前,影响香港物流发展的外部因素是周边地区迅速发展,货源竞争日趋激烈.从内部深层次原因看,导致香港物流业萎缩的症结是香港制造业外移,境内物流环节减少.应充分利用香港海港和空港的基础设施,利用自身高效率优势,提供高质量、多功能、差异化的港口服务,承接内地企业对高端港口物流的需求,为香港物流业的持续发展奠定基础.     

基于灰色模糊综合评价的珠江三角洲现代服务业竞争力的实证分析

文章提出了一种基于灰色模糊方法的现代服务业竞争力综合评价模型。首先构建区域现代服务业竞争力综合评价指标体系,然后借助于模糊综合评价方法和灰色定权聚类方法,选取2000～2010年珠三角地区(含港、澳)的面板数据,对珠江三角洲经济圈现代服务业竞争力进行了实证研究,计量结果发现珠江三角洲地区现代服务业水平存在较大的差异,内陆部分现代服务业总体技术水平不高,主要表现在传统服务业比重仍旧较高,行业结构较不合理。