Exports and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: New insights from innovative econometric methods

This study examined the relationship between exports and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. It employed innovative econometric methods, including the Fourier ADF with structural break test, a comparative analysis of three causality tests and a rolling causality test procedure. The findings suggested that there was a statistically significant relationship between exports and economic growth in several Sub-Saharan countries. However, the causal linkages between exports and economic growth in these countries were found to be weak and unstable. These empirical results have some notable policy implications.     

对外贸易与经济增长:基于辽宁省的实证分析和检验

本文根据计量经济学的相关理论,利用辽宁省1979年到2004年的年度统计数据,对辽宁省的对外贸易与经济增长之间的长短期关系进行了实证分析和检验。结果表明:从长期来看,辽宁省的对外贸易与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系;从短期看,出口对辽宁省的经济增长具有衰减作用,进口对辽宁省的经济增长具有促进作用,文章从供求关系的角度对此进行了解释。研究结果还表明,出口与辽宁省的经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系,但仅存在从经济增长到进口的单向因果关系。     

Trade (exports) as an opportunity for Bangladesh: A VECM analysis

ABSTRACT

This article examines the effects of trade (exports) on the economic growth of Bangladesh from 1986 to 2016, using the application of a Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model. The empirical findings exhibit that trade (exports) has a unique long-run equilibrium relationship with the economic growth of Bangladesh. The short-run results also display a robust causality between variables. This study suggests that exports play a major role in the growth of Bangladesh. Policymakers should promote the export of goods and services, especially manufactured goods, in the long term, in order to possibly reduce the trade deficit and rapidly stimulate the growth of Bangladesh.     

1980～2008外贸对四川经济增长的拉动

对外贸易和经济增长的关系问题历来是经济学的一个重要课题。运用计量法分析四川省1980~2008年的相关数据,并采用平稳性检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果检验等手段进行检验,结果表明,四川省进、出口贸易和经济增长之间存在长期稳定关系;进、出口贸易增长分别对四川经济增长有正向拉动作用,相比之下,出口对经济增长的拉动比进口要大。     

Causality nexus of exports,FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis

This paper analyzes the causal relationships between exports, FDI and economic growth among the ASEAN5 countries. We have used a three-stage procedure based on unit root, co-integration and causality tests applied to the panel data from 1981 to 2013. The results reveal that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between FDI and growth in the long run, while there is a unidirectional causal relationship from FDI to exports in the short run. Our results also confirm that the export-led growth (ELG) and FDI-led growth hypotheses hold true in the long and short run. To reinforce the FDI inflows, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers, and increase the sophistication of quality exports to compete in the global market. This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the ASEAN5 economies using panel analysis.     

Export diversification,mean-reversion of exports,and stability of export–growth causality

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a five-step statistical procedure to examine a linkage among export diversification, mean-reversion of exports, and stability of the export–growth causality. This linkage was assessed for France, Norway, and Switzerland between 1980Q1 and 2016Q4. The findings indicated that the mean-reversion tendency of the export sectors in France and Switzerland was stronger than in Norway, which highlighted the important role of export activities for economic growth in France and Switzerland. Also, the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Norway was found to be more unstable than in France, but more stable than in Switzerland.     

中国进出口贸易对经济增长方式转变的影响分析

文章基于中国1980-2010年GDP和进出口的相关数据对中国进出口贸易和经济运行的轨迹进行分析,测算了外贸依存度、贡献率和拉动度三个指标。运用协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对中国进出口贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果表明中国经济增长与出口之间是正相关的关系,出口增长对经济增长具有明显的促进作用:出口每增长1%,中国GDP将增长约0.714%;同时,经济增长与进口之间也是正相关的关系,弹性为0.0286,进口每增长1%,中国GDP将增长约0.0286%。因此,可以看出中国进出口贸易的增长都促进经济的增长。     

Dynamic causality testing for EKC hypothesis,pollution haven hypothesis and international trade in India

This study examines the causality relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth (GDP) and CO₂ emissions along with the level of trade (exports and imports) taking place in India. The study uses data obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of World Bank Group for the period 1982–2013. The study employed the dynamic multivariate Toda-Yamamoto (TY) approach that uses the modified Wald (MWALD) test. Among the major findings of the study are: the existence of both Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in India. The other findings of the study are: FDI is causing exports; exports are causing imports; imports are causing CO₂ emissions; and finally CO₂ emissions and GDP are causing each other. This finding concludes mainly two things. First, India imports more of pollution-intensive manufactured goods. Second, FDI is causing GDP in India but through CO₂ emissions.     

中国农产品出口贸易与农业经济增长——基于协整分析和Granger因果检验

本文根据协整理论和Granger因果检验方法,对中国自改革开放以来(1980-2004年)的农产品出口与农业经济增长进行了实证分析。结果表明,农产品出口总额与农业经济增长以及劳动密集型农产品出口、土地密集型农产品出口与农业经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系;农产品出口增长与农业经济增长之间存在单向的Granger因果关系,劳动密集型农产品出口增长与农业经济增长之间存在双向因果关系,而土地密集型农产品出口增长与农业经济增长之间没有Granger因果关系。     

Impact of services trade on economic growth and current account balance: Evidence from India

This paper aims to study the impact of services trade on India’s economic growth and current account balance during the post-reform period. Earlier studies on this subject have mostly looked at the goods sector. Indian studies which analysed services-led growth from a balance of payments perspective suffered from a bias of having focused only on call-centre exports. In such a context, this study brings in a novel approach by using the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth model and autoregressive distributed lag cointegration to estimate the balance of payments equilibrium growth rate for India’s service sector. The key service sub-sectors are also identified using input–output tables and the TIVA database. This study finds that India’s service sector is growing at a rate almost equal to its balance of payments equilibrium growth rate under the assumption of constant relative prices in international trade, and at a rate lower than the equilibrium growth rate when this assumption is relaxed. Among the major services in India’s export basket, construction, transport and business services are found to exhibit strong backward linkages. Foreign value-added content in India’s services exports is found to be highest in the case of business services, transport services and telecommunications.     

Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1

The economic development and growth literature contains extensive discussions on relationships between exports and economic growth. One debate centres on whether countries should promote the export sector to obtain economic growth. An abundant empirical literature on this export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis has followed. We aim to contribute to this literature in two ways. In this paper, part 1, we provide a comprehensive survey of more than 150 export-growth applied papers. We describe the changes that have occurred, over the last two decades, in the methodologies used empirically to examine for relationships between exports and economic growth, and we provide information on the current findings.The last decade has seen an abundance of time series studies that focus on examining for causality via exclusions restrictions tests, impulse response function analysis and forecast error variance decompositions. Our second contribution is to examine some of these time series methods. We show, in part 2, that ELG results based on standard causality techniques are not typically robust to specification or method. We do this by reconsidering two export-led growth applications – Oxley’s (1993) study for Portugal, and Henriques and Sadorsky’s (1996) analysis for Canada. Our results suggest that extreme care should be exercised when interpreting much of the applied research on the ELG hypothesis.     

Finance–growth nexus in China from an endogenous switching perspective

This study examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth across Chinese provinces with switching causality. Four states are considered: bidirectional causality (state 1); one-way causality from growth to finance (state 2); one-way causality from finance to growth (state 3); and non-causality (state 4). While state 3 dominates in developed regions, states 1 and 3 occur intermittently in other regions. This implies that the demand for financial services induced by local economic growth plays a stronger role in driving financial development in under-developed regions. Consistent with prior research, bank loans negatively affect economic growth in China.     

我国对外贸易商品结构和方式与经济增长的相关性比较

改革开放以来,我国的对外贸易和经济增长都取得了令人瞩目的成就,但不同的对外贸易商品结构和方式对我国经济增长的影响是不同的。本文运用协整和格兰杰因果检验方法对我国的进出口贸易、投入品和消费品贸易、一般贸易和加工贸易与我国经济增长的相关关系进行了比较分析。结果表明:第一,我国的对外贸易、进口贸易、出口贸易都与经济增长呈正相关关系,但进口贸易对经济增长的推动作用更大,而且进口还是推动我国出口的重要原因;第二,我国投入品的进口和出口以及消费品的出口都与经济增长呈正相关关系,但投入品的进口对经济增长的推动作用更大,而消费品的进口对经济增长有负面影响;第三,我国一般贸易和加工贸易都与经济增长呈正相关关系,但一般贸易对经济增长的推动作用比加工贸易要显著得多。     

中国能源消费与经济增长关系实证研究

采用E-G两步法对1978年～2010年间中国能源消费和经济增长之间的关系进行了协整和Granger检验,结果表明,中国能源消费与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系,能源消费在一定程度上促进了中国的经济增长,两者间存在着从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系,即能源费的增长可以直接导致国内生产总值的增加,并提出了相关政策建议。     

民营企业出口贸易对我国经济增长影响的实证分析

文章计算了民营企业出口贸易对我国经济增长的贡献度和贡献率,发现民营企业外贸出口对我国经济增长的推动作用在不断增强;接下来运用Granger因果检验和协整检验证明了民营企业出口是我国经济增长的Granger原因,民营企业出口对我国经济增长的促进作用非常显著：     

产业内贸易与经济增长:基于协整关系的分析

运用Engle-Granger协整关系检验法和Granger因果关系检验法,利用修正后的产业内贸易指数,对我国1985-2007年间产业内贸易与经济增长之间关系进行实证研究。结果显示这两者之间存在长期稳定的关系,产业内贸易与我国经济增长之间存在双向因果关系,并提出相应的政策建议。     

江苏对外贸易与经济增长的实证研究

随着“一带一路”倡议的实施,对外贸易已成为影响经济增长的关键因素。江苏是全国经济发达省份,对外贸易增量迅速。本文以江苏为例,选取1992—2018年江苏相关数据,进行研究。结果表明:江苏进口和出口是经济增长的格兰杰原因,出口会促进经济增长,而进口会对经济增长产生一定的抑制作用。根据实证分析的结果,对如何促进江苏对外贸易发展与经济高质量发展提出建议。     

两类投资对经济增长的贡献性研究──对美国的分析

本文认为,社会上的资本要素可分为固定资产和智力资本两类,社会经济增长就是由这两类资本来推动的。固定资产投资和智力资本投资对经济增长的贡献不同,从世界范围看,知识经济时代的来临使得智力资本对国民经济的贡献越来越大,而我国的经济增长总体上还依赖于固定资产投资,尚未进入知识经济时代。文章就美国智力资本投资与固定资产投资对经济增长的贡献进行了相关分析、回归分析和因果关系分析,指出美国智力资本投资对经济增长的贡献高于固定资产投资的贡献,智力资本成为促进经济增长的主要推动力。     

进口与经济增长的因果关系实证分析——兼论“重新审视进口在经济增长中的作用”

运用基于误差修正模型(ECM)的因果关系检验对中国的进口和经济增长之间的关系进行分析,结果显示进口与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,进口对经济增长具有促进作用,进口与经济增长具有双向因果关系。     

世界经济危机对广东加工贸易及经济增长的影响分析

加工贸易是广东经济的重要部分,美国次贷危机引致世界经济危机和外需减弱,对广东对外贸易和经济增长带来了巨大冲击。本文运用加工贸易增值率及计量分析方法,探讨1987-2008年加工贸易对广东经济增长的作用。结果表明,加工贸易对广东经济具有较强的拉动作用,加工贸易出口对广东经济增长的贡献要大于加工贸易进口的贡献。在此基础上,分析了世界经济危机对广东经济的影响,并提出广东加工贸易如何在危中求机和进一步加快发展的建议。