危机后新兴大国产业结构调整的战略与政策研究

危机后新兴大国顺应世界产业调整与发展的趋势,结合国内经济结构转型需要,纷纷调整本国产业结构,其战略主要包括：推动制造业升级,提升产业竞争优势;加大科技投入力度,在新兴产业领域寻求战略突破;应对国际需求萎缩,谋求服务业更大的发展空间;扶持农业发展,夯实农业的基础地位。新兴大国从资本、技术与市场三方面入手,落实产业结构调整战略的政策与手段主要包括：提供融资支持,调整财政投入重点,加大资本投入;调整科技政策,加强国际技术合作,提升产业技术水平;改善收入分配,支持出口,扩大产业发展的市场需求。     

Survival of the best fit: Exposure to low-wage countries and the (uneven) growth of U.S. manufacturing plants

This paper examines the role of international trade in the reallocation of U.S. manufacturing within and across industries from 1977 to 1997. Motivated by the factor proportions framework, we introduce a new measure of industry exposure to international trade that focuses on where imports originate rather than on their overall level. We find that plant survival and growth are negatively associated with industry exposure to low-wage country imports. Within industries, we show that manufacturing activity is disproportionately reallocated towards capital-intensive plants. Finally, we provide the first evidence that firms adjust their product mix in response to trade pressures. Plants are more likely to switch industries when exposure to low-wage countries is high.     

Is India Specialising in Polluting Industries? Evidence from US‐India Bilateral Trade

Recently, the apex environmental agency of India observed that domestic industrial pollution has been increasing at an alarming rate over the last two decades, and the need to rein in traditional polluting industries. This raises the pertinent question of whether the poor domestic pollution regime has affected the pattern of India's trade in dirty manufactured products in the post‐liberalisation era since 1991. We find that on the whole, India has remained a net importer of pollution‐intensive manufactured goods; however, there is a distinct trend of increasing specialisation in specific dirty industries especially in the bilateral trade with high‐income countries, and to a lesser degree with low‐income countries. The USA being India's single largest country trading partner in the post‐liberalisation era, we test for pollution offshoring at the finer industry level in US‐India bilateral trade. While we find that the pollution haven effect is not significant, India's specialisation in certain dirty manufacturing industries through the last decade remains a disturbing trend. India needs to integrate environmental sustainability within industrial growth urgently, and it is pertinent to implement policies which would reflect the true pollution costs in an industry that is increasingly competing in the international market.     

Financial development,the choice of technology,and comparative advantage

In this general equilibrium model, banks and manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition. A more advanced manufacturing technology has a higher fixed cost but a lower marginal cost of production. We show that manufacturing firms located in a country with a more efficient financial sector choose more advanced technologies and this country has a comparative advantage in the production of manufactured goods. Even though the foreign country has a less developed financial sector than the home country, the opening up of trade with the foreign country leads domestic manufacturing firms to adopt more advanced technologies. An increase in the level of efficiency in the financial sector of one country causes manufacturing firms in both countries to adopt more advanced technologies.     

How Much More (or Less) Is a Brand Worth When Made in a Low Labor-Cost Country? It Depends Upon Who and Where You Ask

ABSTRACT

This multinational adaptive conjoint study measures how much more, or less, consumers might be willing to pay for different brand/manufacturing country combinations. Chinese, South Korean, and US respondents were asked about their preferences for laptop computers carrying different combinations of price, country of manufacture (CM), and country of brand (CB) cues. For all three respondent groups, price was the most salient attribute, followed by country of manufacturing, and then CB. Nonetheless, respondents from different countries differed in their preferences for price/country of manufacturing/brand combinations. The findings suggest that brands having both positive CB and CM images can charge premium prices in their home countries and abroad. Brands with weaker CB and CM images may enjoy home court advantages domestically; however, they may have to price their products lower when competing in countries with stronger CM and CB reputations.     

基于演化博弈视角的中德装备制造业合作策略研究

中国的装备制造业发展迅速,已成为全球装备制造业出口第一大国,国际地位也在不断提高。德国作为装备制造业强国,其装备制造业的自动化水平和信息技术水平居于全球领先地位。德国“工业4.0”战略和“中国制造2025”战略相似,在两大战略的背景下,加强中德两国装备制造业的合作,对两国来说是互利共赢的。基于演化博弈视角,对中德装备制造业的合作展开分析,根据复制动态方程的分析结果判定均衡解的稳定性,并进行数值模拟来探讨稳定解的影响因素。研究结果表明,影响中德两国实现装备制造业合作共赢局面的主要因素是中德两国合作超额收益、成本以及竞争的投机收益和被竞争方所遭受的损失。在此基础上提出构建中德产业技术联盟、创新合作路径、控制合作成本、构建较好的信任机制等稳定双方合作关系的策略。     

新贸易保护主义的新发展与中国的战略性贸易政策选择——基于弱势产业与贸易保护有效性的分析

本文在弱势产业划分与贸易保护有效性分析的基础上,探讨新贸易保护主义的新发展及其对中国进出口贸易的影响,分析我国的战略性贸易政策选择。本文认为:是否值得与能否对弱势产业进行贸易保护,在大国与小国的答案并不完全相同,可以利用大国规模经济效应提升弱势产业的比较竞争优势;对优势产业与“夕阳产业”同时进行保护、贸易保护的意识形态工具创新是新贸易保护主义新发展的主要特点;为了应对新贸易保护主义新发展对我国进出口贸易的冲击,必须制定符合我国国情的战略性贸易政策。     

Sources of variation in firm profitability and growth

This article reports an analysis of the sources of variation in profitability and growth for manufacturing firms located in eleven European countries. A variance decomposition analysis determines the importance of the country, industry, corporate group and firm effects on profitability and growth. The analysis reveals evidence of differences between industries in the comparative advantage offered by different countries, reflecting a tendency for specialization and geographic concentration. However, as in several previous studies, the firm-level effects are the most important class of effect in explaining the variation in performance.     

中国企业服务寻求型的海外直接投资——基于面板数据的实证研究

文章旨在研究中国企业海外直接投资活动的服务寻求动机,并对服务寻求型海外直接投资的影响因素进行分析。文章采用面板数据的实证方法,对2003-2009年中国企业对40个国家的OFDI数据进行检验。文章研究结论认为,中国企业OFDI具有服务寻求的目的,东道国生产者服务业的技术含量越高越能够吸引中国企业对其进行投资。并且,这种服务寻求型OFDI与生产者服务业FDI之间存在明显的替代关系。母国严格的投资管制使得服务业FDI受到限制,进而会促使企业以OFDI的方式获取东道国的服务投入。     

新一代信息技术驱动下的全球价值链调整及其应对策略

在新一轮科技革命和产业变革背景下,新一代信息技术与制造业深度融合促使制造环节的创新功能凸显、增值能力增强和要素投入升级,进而提高了制造环节在全球价值链中的相对地位。新型制造技术的使用正在重构发达国家制造业的竞争优势,伴随着制造业回流,发达国家对全球价值链制造环节的参与程度有所提高。全球价值链调整导致中国制造业面临更加不确定的外部环境,同时又为制造业向价值链中高端攀升提供了机会窗口。中国应谨防过早“去工业化”,通过推动高水平对外开放、提高新一代信息技术与制造业融合创新能力、深入挖掘内需潜力、大力发展生产性服务业、深度参与全球经济治理等策略应对全球价值链调整。     

跨国外包对我国制造业就业的影响效应

本文运用我国1996—2008年28个制造业面板数据检验了参与跨国外包对制造业就业的影响。研究发现,跨国外包促进了我国制造业就业增长,而且服务外包对就业拉动作用大于制造外包。跨国外包对制造业就业规模正面影响存在行业差异,其中对高技术产业影响程度最大,其次是中等技术行业,最后是低技术行业。不论服务外包还是制造外包都不能显著地提升我国制造业的就业结构。实证结果所蕴含的政策启示在于:我国不能仅仅依靠参与跨国外包缓解就业压力,更为重要的是通过加快产业转型与升级以切实提高本土产业对劳动力的吸纳能力。     

Home bitter home: How labor protection influences firm offshoring

Drawing on the home country literature, we argue that firms headquartered or located in countries with strong labor protection may face challenges in their domestic operations. These firms are likely to initiate offshoring to enhance operational efficiency. Building on this argument, we also examine the boundary conditions moderating this proposed effect including labor productivity and employee stock ownership. Results based on a sample of information technology firms operating within five developed countries during 1990–2010 provide support for these arguments. These findings suggest that offshoring can be a partial exit strategy for firms to address the institutional challenges in their home country.     

Differing patterns of industrial dynamics: New Zealand,Ohio, and Sweden, 1978–1994

New Zealand, Ohio, and Sweden have experienced sharply divergent macroeconomic developments since the early 1970s. During the 1980s, New Zealand went from being the most heavily regulated and protectionist OECD country to one of the least regulated and most open economies in the world. Ohio suffered severe economic downturns when its major industries (steel, automobiles, and machinery) went through devastating crises. Since then, a major restructuring has taken place, and manufacturing output, exports, and employment have generally grown faster than in the United States as a whole. Sweden had an outstanding industrial growth record for several decades until the mid-1970s but then suffered economic setbacks from which it has not yet fully recovered. Industrial output declined for several years, resumed growth in the early 1980s but then stagnated again in the early 1990s.The object of this paper is to study the microeconomic responses to these differences in the macroeconomic environment. While manufacturing employment declined by more than 20 percent in each country, the number of establishments in manufacturing stayed constant in Sweden while it declined by 9 percent in Ohio and more than doubled in New Zealand.While there are certainly structural differences in the composition of the manufacturing sector in the three economies, these differences explain only a small portion of the differences in development patterns. Only a handful of 3-digit ISIC industries grew in terms of employment in each country between 1978 and 1993, but the growth industries were not the same across countries, and there were substantial differences in the growth patterns within these industries.     

常州市产业结构的演变路径及展望

建国后,常州市产业结构的演变路径分为三个阶段:工业体系的构建及工业基础的奠定阶段、工业化道路的积极探索阶段、产业结构的持续调整阶段。在产业结构的调整上经历了重点发展纺、轻、电和加工业及机电工业;提高轻纺、装备制造业;发展高新技术产业三个阶段。结合国际国内经济形势与产业政策发展趋势,常州市产业结构优化升级的愿景,即重点发展新能源和环保、创意产业,加快生产性服务业发展,偏重培养中小企业和民营科技型企业的技术创新能力,加强区域品牌建设,打造"绿色产品制造名城"。     

中国纺织服装出口企业贫困增长源于对比较优势战略的过分依赖

比较优势战略,从静态角度看,有利于一国充分发挥自己的优势,促进经济的健康发展;但从动态看,众多国家同时采用这一战略,必然导致合成谬误的产生。即专业化导致生产能力快速增长,产品供应超过需求,市场价格下降,销售越多,收益反而下降,其结果就是企业的贫困增长。发展中国家必须采取有力措施,创造良好的制度环境,使企业能够摆脱对价格竞争路径的过度依赖,从技术进步与自主品牌的建设中获得收益,而不能完全按照自由主义的比较优势理论来发展相关产业与对外贸易。     

生产性服务嵌入、技术进步与中国装备制造业效率提升

本文利用1998-2010年中国从16个国家的进口数据,考察生产性服务等中间品进口对技术进步的影响,根据中国30个省份的面板数据进一步分析生产性服务各细分行业对装备制造业的效率提升效应。研究结果发现,通过生产性服务进口,中国可获得全球高级要素资源,技术水平也得到提高。在生产性服务细分行业中,信息服务业、商务服务业和金融服务业显著促进了装备制造业效率,但物流服务业大幅度降低了装备制造业的效率。     

我国增值农业发展情况概述

作为发达国家的一种农业发展战略或发展模式,增值农业是指通过深加工、基因改造和产品多元化等方式不断提高农产品的附加值,促进农业与其他产业的结合,延长农业的产业链,增加农业的后续效益,并使农民直接参与农产品在生产、流通、销售等各个环节的增值过程,农民除获得种植业、养殖业的收入外,还可分享农产品加工业和服务业的部分利润。从增值农业的内涵来看,它与我国的提高农产品附加值、农业产业化、农产品深加工等提法有相似之处,但前者是一个完整的现代农业发展体系,而后者通常并没有把农业生产与农产品加工转化的各个环节统一起来,可以说是增值农业的初级形态。     

基于BP神经网络的出口产品价格监测预警模型

根据反倾销理论,当出口商品的价格低于其正常价值、进口国同类商品的价格降幅明显且其生产者遭受到严重损失时,进口国政府将进行反倾销诉讼。基于此,以我国出口至美国的棉纱为例,利用BP神经网络建立了出口产品价格监测预警模型,旨在提高我国出口棉纱生产商及政府在面对美国反倾销诉讼或实施贸易保护政策时的反应能力。实验结果显示:该模型具有较高的训练和预测精度,可以起到预警的效果。     

发达国家催化优先领域突破的创新平台建设经验及启示

近年来,发达国家为应对经济全球化的不确定性,纷纷推出了“再工业化”战略,其本质是通过国家行动重新打造以新兴产业为牵引的高价值制造业战略,核心是通过政府、企业、大学、科研机构和社会团体合力打造国家级创新平台,推动本国优先领域先进技术迅速商业化。本文总结了美国、德国、英国、法国、日本、韩国等发达国家在推进本国先进制造业前沿技术成果转化与应用推广方面搭建的创新平台的建设经验,以期为我国建设未来创新平台提供借鉴。     

制造业出口碳排放:总量、结构、要素分解

利用结构分解法探讨制造业CO2排放变化趋势,分析出口对中国制造业CO2排放的总体影响,将制造业出口CO2排放的影响因素分解为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应,并在此基础上进行分行业研究。结果表明:规模效应是制造业出口完全CO2排放上升的最重要因素;结构效应的作用方向不稳定,总体上增加了制造业出口CO2排放,但这种效应很小;技术效应对制造业出口CO2的排放虽有一定的减排作用,但还不足以抵消规模效应和结构效应。因此,应当对当前制造业的产业结构和出口结构进行更加有效的调整,提高各行业尤其是高污染行业的减排技术水平。