Effect of exchange rate volatility on industry trade flows between Malaysia and China

This paper investigates the impact of ringgit/yuan volatility on Malaysian trade with her largest trading partner, China. The short- and long-run impacts are estimated using bounds testing approach to cointegration analysis and disaggregated bilateral trade data by industry over the period of 1985–2010. Specifically, we considered a total of 151 importing and 24 exporting industries in Malaysia that traded with China. Our finding indicates that cointegration existed in 94 Malaysian import industry models and 16 Malaysian export industry models. Among these cases, exchange rate volatility has short-run effects on majority of the models. However, the short-run effects shift into the long-run effects in 46 out of 69 industries in import models and 5 out of 10 industries in export models. Results indicate that the exchange rate uncertainty has positive effects on majority of these industries.     

汇率风险如何影响中国对日本的出口

本文研究汇率风险对中国与日本的双边出口是否存在长期和短期的影响。使用多元JO-HANSEN协整检验法来检验汇率波动率与出口之间是否存在长期均衡关系。使用GRANGER非因果检验和脉冲响应函数检验短期影响是否存在。研究结果表明从长期看,汇率风险对出口没有影响,但是短期看,汇率风险确实会影响出口。     

Exchange-Rate Volatility,Exchange-Rate Regime,and Trade in OIC Countries

The authors examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade in the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) countries from 1995 to 2008 using panel estimations to distinguish differences between disaggregate trade, and examine its threshold effects. Results reveal that exchange rate volatility generally has significant negative effect on export and import with lag. However, exports of OIC with flexible exchange rate regime have significant positive exposure to exchange rate volatility. The authors also document a threshold effect for countries with trade value constitutes more than 30% of the real gross domestic product, and the exchange rate volatility becomes significant positive for export but significant negative for import with lag.     

Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Trade Flows: Evidence from Commodity Trade between the United States and the United Kingdom

Previous studies that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows employed aggregate trade data and standard estimation techniques. They provided mixed results. In this paper we use disaggregated import and export data for 177 commodities traded between the United States and the United Kingdom to investigate whether volatility of the real bilateral dollar–pound exchange rate has any detrimental effect on trade flows at the commodity level. Additionally, we employ the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error‐correction modelling that is suitable for the models used mostly because it does not require pre‐unit‐root testing and variables in the model could be stationary, non‐stationary or a combination of the two. In most trade flow models estimated, we found a negative effect of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies

This paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to 13 industrialised countries. We recognise the specificity of the exports between the emerging East Asian and industrialised countries and employ a generalised gravity model. In the empirical analysis we use a panel comprising 25 years of quarterly data and perform unit‐root and cointegration tests to verify the long‐run relationship among the variables. The results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries. In addition, the results suggest that the pattern of bilateral exports is influenced by third‐country variables. An increase in the price competitiveness of other emerging East Asian countries has a negative impact on a country’s exports to a destination market, but the magnitude of the impact is relatively small. These results are robust across different estimation techniques and do not depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty. The results of the GMM‐IV estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias.     

贸易环境对我国出口影响的实证分析

以我国1995年1月至2009年10月出口贸易的月度数据为基础,实证分析了贸易环境的变化对我国出口的影响,结果显示:实际有效汇率的上升(人民币贬值)对我国一般贸易出口、加工贸易出口和制成品出口具有正面作用;汇率波动率越大,我国的出口贸易额就越少;我国出口贸易的收入弹性较高,一般贸易出口和制成品出口对收入的敏感性也较强;加入WTO、采取出口退税和人民币汇率改革3项贸易政策从长期来看,促进了我国出口贸易的增长。     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra‐Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods

This paper examines the impact of intra‐Asia exchange rate volatility on intra‐Asia trade in primary goods, intermediate goods, equipment goods and consumption goods from 1980 to 2009. For Asia, the evidence shows that as intraregional exchange rate volatility increases, intraregional exports in these goods fall. This adverse impact is even more pronounced in the subregion of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 comprising ASEAN member countries plus the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei, China; and especially among intermediate and equipment exports. Again, the impact magnifies in an even smaller subgroup excluding the smaller ASEAN economies. These results underline the significant impact of exchange rate volatility on the region's production networks. For South Asia, however, exchange rate volatility appears to have a positive impact on exports. Still, caution is warranted given that South Asian economies trade relatively little with each other.     

Export prices,selection into exporting and market size: Evidence from China and India

This paper empirically analyses the export pricing behaviour of Chinese and Indian exporters when there is selection into exporting. Previous exchange rate pass-through estimates that did not take selection into account could be biased if selection into exporting is correlated with pricing strategy. We use 6-digit product-level data across high- and low-income export destinations over the period 1994–2007 and assess a number of determinants of the degree of pass-through of exchange rates to export prices, such as the level of external demand, exporter’s wage cost, degree of competition in export markets, currency volatility and the direction of currency movements. We find systematic differences in the pricing strategies of Chinese and Indian exporters while uncovering a selection bias in exports to high-income markets, although the pricing of exports to low-income markets is independent of the decision to export. Export prices do not increase systematically with the destination market per capita income, and tend to be less sensitive in shipments to advanced nations. Export prices of India are sensitive to the volatility of the trade-weighted nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), indicating heterogeneity in prices to maintain competitiveness, but not in China as volatility is insignificant given a fixed currency system. It is also revealed that a country with a relatively flexible currency regime and arms-length trade such as India is more likely to exhibit incomplete pass-through, whereas a country with an inflexible currency system and involved in outward processing trade is more likely to have full pass-through as shown in the case of China.     

Exchange-rate sensitivity of commodity trade flows: Does the choice of reporting country affect the empirical estimates?

While the effects of currency fluctuations on trade have long been of interest to economic researchers, the most recent trend in the literature is to estimate commodity trade flows between pairs of countries. This raises an important question: Does it matter which country reports the data? This study investigates 96 industries that are reported both as exports by the United States and as imports by South Korea. Since export data are FOB and import data are CIF, the Korean imports are expectedly larger than the US exports. Correspondingly, our cointegration analysis produces drastically different results between specifications. Nonparametric analysis shows that the Korean imports are more sensitive to real exchange-rate fluctuations than US exports, signifying the importance of cost of insurance and freight, as well as the data's conversion into dollars.     

Exchange rate jumps and exports: Evidence from China

We apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI ) model to monthly exchange rate returns of China against 81 countries and investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports over the period of 1995–2004. We decompose bilateral exchange rate volatility into continuous and discrete components and find that only the discrete part of exchange rate volatility, that is, the exchange rate jumps, has a significantly negative effect on exports, which to some extent reconciles the old yet unsettled debate in previous literature on the role of exchange rate volatility in international trade. There is also some evidence suggesting that the development of domestic financial market will boost international trade, but it does not help attenuate the negative effect of bilateral exchange rate jump risk on exports.     

Determinants of Export Diversification Around the World: 1962–2000

Using a large dataset for 79 countries covering the period 1962–2000, this study analyses the main determinants of export diversification (concentration). We explore the role of several factors and we use three different indicators of export concentration. We find robust evidence across specifications and indicators that trade openness induces higher specialisation. In contrast, financial development does not seem to help countries to diversify their exports. Looking at the effects of exchange rates, in some of the results, a negative effect of real exchange rate volatility on export diversification is detected, but no significant effects of exchange rate overvaluation. There is also evidence that human capital accumulation contributes positively to diversify exports and that increasing remoteness tends to reduce export diversification. We also explore the role of terms of trade shocks. Most of the results suggest an interesting interaction between this variable and human capital: improvements in the terms of trade tend to concentrate exports, but this effect is lower for those countries with higher levels of human capital. This evidence suggests that countries with higher education can take advantage of positive terms of trade shocks to increase export diversification.     

Impact of exchange rates on ASEAN's trade in the era of global value chains: An empirical assessment

ABSTRACT

Exchange rate risk remains a key concern for export-oriented economies in Southeast Asia. Traditionally, export performance is thought to be adversely affected by exchange rate appreciation and high exchange rate volatility. Nonetheless, in the context of global value chains where export production relies heavily on imported inputs, the trade effects of exchange rate may be weakened. Using the OECD-WTO Trade in Value-added (TiVA) database, this paper seeks to tease out the association between exchange rate movements, volatility and aggregate exports of goods and services among ASEAN economies. More importantly, it investigates whether integration into GVCs affects these relationships. Applying panel regression techniques to a sample of eight ASEAN countries over the period 1995–2011, we found that high share of foreign value added (FVA) embodied in exports almost completely offsets the negative effect of an appreciation in the real effective exchange rate (REER) on real gross exports. At the same time, high FVA share also dampens the negative association between exports and increased REER volatility.     

人民币实际汇率及波动对进出口贸易的影响——以江苏省与美国进出口贸易为例

本文基于进出口需求方程,通过建立AR-GARCH模型及协整模型来研究影响江苏省与美国进出口贸易的主要因素。研究发现,江苏省和美国两个各自的国内收入(生产总值)、人民币实际有效汇率水平对进出口贸易都有较大的正向显著影响,而人民币汇率波动没有显著影响,在分析这一结果背后原因的同时,提出密切关注美国经济走势,及时指导外贸企业规避风险,树立企业外汇风险意识,增强企业外汇风险管理能力,进一步增强经济实力,优化贸易结构等政策建议。     

Industrial research and development and real exchange rate depreciation in a small open economy

To examine how changes in relative national prices affect innovation input, this paper studies the impact of changes in industry-specific effective real exchange rates on industrial R&D expenditures in Korea. In particular, it explores the heterogeneous responses of industries with different export intensities. Employing dynamic panel data estimation techniques, the results suggest that among industries with medium levels of export intensity a lagged depreciation in industry-specific effective real exchange rate leads to a decline in contemporaneous industry-level R&D expenditures. However, this adverse effect is insignificant for industries that either mostly serve the domestic markets or that are heavily engaged in foreign markets.     

Evidence on Orcutt's hypothesis using Turkish–US commodity trade

Many of the studies that have tested the Orcutt's hypothesis in trade have used aggregate trade data between one country and rest of the world. Since these studies suffer from aggregation bias, three recent studies have employed data at commodity level and have found relatively more support for the hypothesis. In this paper we test the hypothesis using commodity level data from 54 industries that trade between Turkey and the US. We find support for the notion that trade flows respond to exchange rate changes faster than to relative price changes in one-third of the industries, supporting Orcutt's conjecture.     

出口退税政策的节能减排效应研究

调整出口退税已成为遏制高能耗、高排放产品出口的重要措施,研究首先从理论上分析了出口退税的节能减排效应,提出下调出口退税率,将降低单位产值能耗成本的假设,接下来又通过我国钢铁行业出口能源强度与出口退税率的协整分析来实证验证,结果表明:出口额能耗与出口退税率间存在长期协整关系,且出口退税率是出口额能耗变化的格兰杰原因;出口退税率调整对出口额能耗影响的长期弹性为0.47,短期弹性为0.07,即出口退税率的变化对出口额能耗的影响在短期内不明显,但具有长期深远的影响;变结构协整分析还表明,差别退税政策下,当退税率下调时,出口退税率变化对出口额能耗的影响更大。     

The Effects of Currency Depreciation on Industry Trade Flows between Malaysia and China

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the impact of real depreciation of ringgit/yuan on Malaysian bilateral trade with her largest trading partner, China, over the period of 1987 to 2013. Using disaggregated import and export data from 39 industries, the results from the bounds testing approach to co-integration and error-correction model reveal that the real bilateral exchange rate has short- and long-run effects in the majority of the industries. However, the short-run effects shift into the long run in nine out of 20 import industries and in 13 out of 20 export industries. Most of these are small industries producing intermediate goods.     

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on the Trade of Educational Services

This article finds that high levels of real exchange rate volatility between two trading partners significantly decrease the amount of educational services traded. Many academic institutions are actively looking to expand exports of educational services as a means of increasing revenues. Internal policies that reduce real exchange rate uncertainty may help encourage trade of educational services between countries where volatility is high. The discovery that real exchange rate volatility serves as a significant barrier to attracting educational export opportunities to certain countries underscores an obstacle that should and/or could be addressed as academic institutions strive to expand their international enrollments.     

China's exports,export tax rebates and exchange rate policy

This paper examines the relationship between China's exports, export tax rebates and exchange rate policy. It offers an explanation for why China's exports continued to rise under RMB real appreciations during the Asian financial crisis. Based on a traditional export demand model, we test our hypothesis that the counteracting effects of China's export tax rebate policy have diminished the effectiveness of real exchange rates in facilitating the resolution of trade imbalances under the current pegged exchange rate regime. We find evidence that RMB real appreciations during the crisis negatively affected China's exports, but the negative effects were mitigated by the positive effects of export tax rebates. We also find evidence of a long‐run relationship between China's exports and the other explanatory variables. The empirical evidence suggests that under the pegged exchange rate regime with limited adjustments, real exchange rate movements alone cannot resolve China's external imbalances. The policy implication of this study is that China needs to redirect its decades‐long export‐oriented development strategy to one that emphasises domestic demand‐oriented development and to replace the current pegged exchange rate regime with a market‐oriented more flexible exchange rate regime.