The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of post-war U.S. business cycles. We specify a time-series model for real GNP and consumption in which the two share a common stochastic trend and transitory component, and Markov-regime switching is used to model business cycle phases in these components. The timing of switches between business cycle phases is allowed to differ across the permanent and transitory components. We find strong evidence of a lead-lag relationship between the switches in the two components. Specifically, switches in the permanent component leads switches in the transitory component when entering recessions.     

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in the presence of structural shifts: The case of Japan versus the USA

This paper tests the Feldstein-Horioka “puzzle” for the two richest countries of the world: Japan and the USA. For this purpose it employs three different cointegration tests that are applied to the Feldstein-Horioka long-run investment-saving equation in conjunction with the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) unit root test considering two structural shifts. A novel aspect of the paper is that it determines the number of breaks solely from a scrutiny of the data and that in constructing the dummy variables for the breaks it uses the endogenously determined break dates. It shows that allowing for structural shifts eliminates the “puzzle” both for Japan and the USA.     

The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate

This paper estimates the permanent and transitory movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate and the relationships between them. The results suggest that permanent movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate are important for explaining overall fluctuations. Further, the correlation between changes in these series arises in large part due to the relationship between their permanent components.     

The Time‐Varying Volatility of Earnings and Aggregate Consumption Growth

Time‐varying specifications for the conditional variance of earnings of U.S. households are estimated with micro data over the period 1968–92. The cross‐sectional mean of the estimated time‐varying uncertainty of individual households has a significant impact on aggregate consumption growth. As such, aggregate precautionary savings may be more important than what is suggested by the results of estimating standard regression equations for aggregate consumption growth that incorporate only lagged income growth and the real interest rate. The estimation of a buffer stock consumption model with time‐varying earnings uncertainty suggests that the precautionary savings motive is cyclical and has become less important in the 1980s.     

The Spirit of Capitalism, Precautionary Savings, and Consumption

Recent research has shown that the "spirit of capitalism"—a preference for wealth itself, in addition to consumption—has important implications for growth and asset pricing. This paper explores how the spirit of capitalism affects saving and consumption behavior. We demonstrate that the spirit of capitalism may reduce the importance of precautionary savings. It can also explain the excess sensitivity puzzle: the spirit of capitalism causes dramatic deviations from a random walk. It may also offer a partial explanation of the excess smoothness puzzle.     

Dynamic risksharing in the United States and Europe

We use a panel VAR model to improve upon the existing methodologies to analyze interregional risksharing and consumption smoothing channels. First, we endogenize the output process within a more general multi-equation framework, capturing the dynamic feedback between output and various smoothing channels. Second, in line with dynamic general equilibrium open economy models of risksharing, we exploit impulse response functions to trace the role of each smoothing channel over time, in the presence of different structural shocks (temporary vs. permanent and output vs. smoothing channels). In the application to the US and OECD countries, we find different dynamic properties of different smoothing channels. We compare our results with the predictions of standard risksharing and consumption theories, and tackle some of the puzzles in the literature, such as the “international risksharing puzzle” and the “consumption-output correlation puzzle.” We are also able to address such policy issues as whether fiscal stabilizers have been substitutes or complements for financial market diversification activities and whether further financial market integration is likely to provide countries with more shock-absorption tools. A key result is the strong substitutability between capital and credit smoothing in the US, and between fiscal and credit smoothing in the OECD.     

The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: A Two-Step Structural VAR Approach

The response of hours to a technology shock is a controversial issue in macroeconomics. Part of the difficulty lies in that the estimated response is sensitive to the specification of hours in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). This paper uses a simple two-step approach to consistently estimate the response of hours. The first step considers a SVAR model with a relevant stationary variable, but excluding hours. Given a consistent estimate of technology shocks in the first step, the response of hours to this shock is estimated in a second step. Simulation experiments from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model show that this approach outperforms standard SVARs. When applied to U.S. data, the two-step approach predicts a short-run decrease followed by a hump-shaped positive response. This result is robust to other specifications and data.     

Interpreting Permanent Shocks to Output When Aggregate Demand May Not Be Neutral in the Long Run

This paper studies a popular statistical model of permanent and transitory shocks to output using a set of arguably more plausible structural assumptions. One way to structurally interpret the model is by assuming aggregate demand has no long‐run output effect. However, many economic theories are inconsistent with that assumption. Instead, we reinterpret the statistical model assuming a positive shock to aggregate supply lowers the price level and in the long run raises output while a positive shock to aggregate demand raises the price level. Under these assumptions, a puzzling finding from the empirical literature implies that a positive aggregate demand shock had a long‐run positive effect on output in pre–World War I economies.     

The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case

This paper looks at recent developments in house purchase loans and house prices in Spain and the linkages between them. It aims at identifying deviations of these variables from their equilibrium levels, and for this purpose, we estimate a vector error-correction model. The results show that both variables are interdependent in the long-run and that both variables were above their equilibrium level by the end of the sample period (2009:Q1). The paper also offers insight into how overvaluation (overindebtedness) in house prices can lead to a false sense of no overindebtedness (house prices overvaluation).     

Consumption, the persistence of shocks, and asset price volatility

In a general equilibrium setting, a temporary component in consumption introduces a wedge between the volatility of equity returns and the volatility of consumption growth. This paper explores the asset pricing consequences of this property in a model in which consumption is the sum of a permanent and a transitory component. Permanent shocks are assumed to be rare events, while transitory shocks follow a diffusion process. When calibrated to US annual data, the model matches first and second moments of equity and bond returns for preference parameters within acceptable bounds. Permanent and transitory shocks together explain the equity premium, while transitory shocks alone explain the excess volatility of returns.     

Certainty Equivalence and the Excess Sensitivity of Private Consumption

For a panel of OECD countries, we show that the magnitude of the estimate for the excess sensitivity of private consumption to current income cannot be explained by a model based on certainty equivalence.     

A Long-Run Non-Linear Approach to the Fisher Effect

We argue that the empirical failure of the Fisher effect found in the literature may be due to the existence of non-linearities in the long-run relationship between interest rates and inflation. We present evidence that, for the U.S. during the 1960–2004 period, the Fisher relation presents important non-linearities. We model the long-run non-linear relationship and find that an ESTR model for the pre-Volcker era and an LSTR model for the post-Volcker era are able to control for non-linearities and constitute long-run co-integration vectors. Monte Carlo evidence produces support for the hypothesis that non-linearities may also be responsible for the less than proportional coefficients of inflation usually found in the linear specifications.     

Evidence on the Relationship between Housing and Consumption in the United States: A State‐Level Analysis

We estimate the dynamic effects of U.S. housing market shocks on state‐level spending and home prices from a dynamic common factor model, and identify housing demand and supply shocks using a sign‐restrictions approach. While state‐level spending and house prices gradually respond positively and persistently to aggregate housing demand shocks, there is significant variation across states in the magnitude of these responses. Cross‐state regressions of the estimated responses on an index of mortgage market development suggest that spending in states with greater opportunities for home equity borrowing is more sensitive to housing demand shocks than in states with fewer opportunities, which is consistent with the prominence of a “collateral” channel over a “wealth” channel in explaining the link between housing and the overall economy.     

Financial Frictions,Financial Shocks,and Aggregate Volatility

The Great Moderation was accompanied by an increase in financial volatility. We explore the sources of these divergent patterns in volatilities by estimating a model with time‐varying financial rigidities subject to structural breaks in the size of shocks, the monetary policy rule coefficients, and the average size of the financial rigidity. Institutional changes are key in accounting for the Great Moderation and in shaping the transmission mechanism of financial shocks. The increase in financial volatilities is accounted for by larger financial shocks, but the vulnerability of the economy to these shocks is significantly alleviated by the estimated changes in institutions.     

Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics

Understanding if credit risk is driven mostly by idiosyncratic firm characteristics or by systematic factors is an important issue for the assessment of financial stability. By exploring the links between credit risk and macroeconomic developments, we observe that in periods of economic growth there may be some tendency towards excessive risk-taking. Using an extensive dataset with detailed information for more than 30 000 firms, we show that default probabilities are influenced by several firm-specific characteristics. When time-effect controls or macroeconomic variables are also taken into account, the results improve substantially. Hence, though the firms’ financial situation has a central role in explaining default probabilities, macroeconomic conditions are also very important when assessing default probabilities over time.     

Bank-specific shocks and the real economy

Governments often justify interventions into the financial system in the form of bail outs or liquidity assistance with the systemic importance of large banks for the real economy. In this paper, we analyze whether idiosyncratic shocks to loan growth at large banks have effects on real GDP growth. We employ a measure of idiosyncratic shocks which follows Gabaix (forthcoming). He shows that idiosyncratic shocks to large firms have an impact on US GDP growth. In an application to the banking sector, we find evidence that changes in lending by large banks have a significant short-run impact on GDP growth. Episodes of negative loan growth rates and the Eastern European countries in our sample drive these results.     

Bank profitability during recessions

This paper contributes to the literature on the relation between bank profitability and economic activity. When allowing for stronger co-movement of bank profit with economic activity during deep recessions, we find a much larger impact of output growth on bank profitability than commonly found in the literature. Among the different components of bank profit, loan losses are the main driver of this result. We also find long-term interest rates in previous years to be important determinants of bank profit in times of high economic growth. Our findings are robust to the use of aggregate or individual bank data.     

Estimation of the equilibrium exchange rate: The CHEER approach

The paper presents the results of an investigation where the concept of a steady-state level of the exchange rate is equated with the capital market equilibrium based on the CHEER approach. The empirical analysis concentrates on Poland, because in this case the assessment of the equilibrium exchange rate is of vital importance. The prospect of the Polish currency joining the ERM2 provokes controversies and requires research into the economic consequences of accession to the EMU. The international transmission mechanisms affecting the Polish economy are identified within the VEqCM framework. The calculations indicate that in the last years of the analyzed sample (i.e. up to December 2006) the zloty/euro exchange rate was slightly overvalued, and the steady-state level was found to have been adjusting to the value of 4.1 zlotys.     

The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy

This paper provides an empirical investigation of both the within-US and international channels of transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks by means of a 50-country macroeconometric model (estimated over the 1980-2009 period), including measures of excess liquidity and financial fragility, specifically designed in order to evaluate the relevance of the boom-bust credit cycle view put forward as an interpretation of the recent “Great Recession” episode. We find that such a view is consistent with the empirical evidence. Moreover, concerning the real effects of financial shocks within the US, we detect stronger evidence of an asset prices channel, rather than a liquidity channel. Concerning the spillovers to the world economy, we find that while financial disturbances are transmitted to foreign countries through US house and stock price dynamics, as well as excess liquidity creation, the trade channel is the key trasmission mechanism of real shocks.