“一带一路”建设给粤港澳大湾区带来的金融机遇与合作

由香港澳门特别行政区和广东省多个城市共同组成的粤港澳大湾区城市群,是世界第四大湾区。在“一带一路”的积极响应和倡导下,粤港澳大湾区深化投资贸易,各个城市之间互帮互助并且经济贸易往来密切,为城市发展注入更多发展资本,通过加快地区之间的金融合作,迎来更多发展机遇。本文主要以“一带一路”作为发展背景,深入探究粤港澳大湾区所带来的金融机遇与合作,分析粤港澳大湾区所独有的金融发展和合作优势,概述金融机遇和合作方向,并通过分析银行在“一带一路”背景下,在粤港澳大湾区中的发展路径以及潜在机遇,为今后粤港澳大湾区的发展注入金融活水。     

国内贸易、空间溢出与省际经济周期协同:1987—2011

将经济周期空间溢出用于解释1987—2011年期间中国省际经济周期协同性的变化,研究发现:省份经济周期具有一定的空间关联,并且会通过周期空间溢出放大经济波动和形成周期协同。由时滞效应引发的周期协同在很大程度上会掩盖由空间溢出引起的周期协同。国内贸易作为省份间的风险分担途径之一,有助于平抑其他冲击引发的经济波动。随着中国与世界经济周期联动性的增强,有必要进一步鼓励扩大国内贸易规模。     

粤港澳经济运行机制对接的思路探讨

粤港澳三地在经济合作尤其是制度层面的合作方面尚存在着由市场、政府和社会中介组织行为关系厘定不清所带来的一系列问题.针对这一问题.笔者从经济运行机制的理论分析入手,提出粤港澳深入合作的出路在于实现三地经济运行机制的真正对接,即粤港澳应在充分规范政府、市场和中介组织行为关系的基础上共同建立成熟、完善的现代市场经济运行机制,从而推动大珠三角区域一体化.     

粤港澳大湾区打造国际金融创新中心的机遇研究

粤港澳大湾区建设为珠三角与港澳金融合作提供了新机遇,在推动内地与港澳地区深化合作,促进对外开放,提升国家经济发展实力等方面发挥着极为重要的作用。本文就粤港澳大湾区创建国际金融创新中心的新机遇进行分析,并提出一系列创建对策,以期为粤港澳大湾区金融合作的进一步深化提供参考。     

自贸区背景下深化粤港澳金融合作研究

自贸区背景新形势下给深化粤港澳金融合作带来了重大机遇。文章从金融组织体系构建、金融业务创新、金融市场完善、金融智库建设、金融环境营造、金融监管体系建立健全以及金融风险防范七大角度入手,提出新形势下如何构建适应粤港澳金融深入合作的政策建议,以期为粤、港、澳三地金融合作的纵深发展提供指引,使粤、港、澳三地在优势互补与良性互动中实现双赢。     

深化粤港澳大湾区金融市场互联互通

通过对粤港澳大湾区互联互通在金融市场渗入的意义开展分析,本文明确了粤港澳大湾区开展金融合作的必要性,并以五个方面为切入点对提升该地区金融合作效果的方法对策进行分析,旨在为国家建设者,提供参考建议,有助于我国社会经济的发展。     

粤港澳大湾区带来的金融机遇与合作

粤港澳大湾区是由香港、澳门和广东省多个市所组成的城市群,是我国建设世界级城市群和参与全球竞争的重要空间载体,是世界上的第四大湾区,经济总量位居第二。通过粤港澳大湾区,我国不断提高合作水平,深化投资贸易,促进与港澳地区的互利互助关系,积极响应"一带一路"倡议。它不仅促进了组成城市群的城市经济发展和加强了贸易往来,提供了更多的投资机会和注入资本,还为相关地区带来了许多的金融机遇与合作。文章捉住时代的主旋律,针对粤港澳大湾区所带来的金融机遇和合作,进行深入了解,研究分析,从规划、目标以及带来的金融机遇与合作的原因进行思考,从而进一步地就此对粤港澳大湾区今后的发展作出发展前景预测。     

粤港澳经济合作瓶颈与深化策略探析

区域经济合作是国际化发展的产物,是社会化和经济发展的必然趋势。澳门和香港在回归之后,我国粤港澳经济合作已经取得了一定的成功经验,然而粤港澳经济合作中仍存在着机制体制不对接、深层矛盾、利益诉求不一致等问题,严重阻碍粤港澳经济合作水平的提升。针对这种情况,积极探索研究粤港澳经济合作瓶颈与深化策略不仅能够有效提高粤港澳经济合作水平,而且对粤港澳经济发展意义深刻。本文着重分析了粤港澳经济合作的瓶颈,并探索了粤港澳经济合作深化的对策。     

中国经济周期的领先区域研究

经济波动周期存在行业领先性已经成为公认的事实,但经济波动周期的区域领先性研究常常被同步化所代替.实际上,经济波动的区域领先性不仅存在,而且和行业领先性一样重要.文章对沃森模型的残差链进行了简化,并利用中国部分省(市、区)数据进行分析.结果表明,中国经济自建国以来不仅呈现出越来越明显的周期性,而且展现了这种波动的区域领先性,说明了经济波动中领先区域、滞后区域、同步区域的现实存在.进一步的分析表明,在经济扩张与衰退时期,区域领先性的表现存在一些差异,经济扩张时期的领先(滞后)区域不一定对应着衰退时期的领先(滞后)区域:同一区域可以是经济扩张、经济衰退与领先区域、滞后区域的任意组合.     

对金融周期与实体经济周期相关性与协同性探讨

改革开放以来,我国的经济取得了令人瞩目的成就,在经济发展的过程之中,金融发展和经济增长波动路径存在着较大的差异性,虽然两个周期之间的差异性造成了两者表现形式的区别,但是两者在周期波动路径和波动趋势上存在着一定的相关性,因此研究个周期之间的关系能更好的指导我国经济的宏观调控。本文阐述了两个周期的概念,并逐个探讨了两个周期之间的相关性和协同性。     

Business Cycle Desynchronisation: Amplitude and Beta vs. Co-movement

A high degree of correlation among the business cycles of individual countries is usually seen as a key criterion for an optimum currency area. However, the elasticity with which countries react to the common cycle is equally important. A country with a non-unitary growth elasticity relative to the common area will experience cyclical divergences at the peak and trough of the common cycle. Despite being characterised by highly correlated business cycles, the euro area suffers from widely differing amplitudes.     

One fits all in the EMU? One monetary policy for eleven countries

Euro-skeptics continue to argue that the discrepancies between national business cycles are too wide, and that a common European monetary policy cannot work in the long run. The laboriously accomplished monetary stability will therefore not be able to last, high rates of inflation and a “soft” euro will, in the long run, be the inevitable consequences. The empirical evidence given in the following article supports a different view: not only has there been a strong correlation of business cycles in Euroland over the past decade, but there are also a multitude of forces that are working towards further convergence.     

Real Output Co‐movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?

The East Asian region has experienced astonishing economic growth and integration over the past few decades. It is generally believed that a high degree of integration in the region would greatly shape the economic structure of each individual economy and has direct implications for the effectiveness of domestic stabilisation policy and policy coordination. This paper empirically examines the feasibility of forming a monetary union in East Asia by assessing the real output co‐movements among these economies. As suggested by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory that losing monetary independence would be the major cost for adopting a common currency, it would be less costly for the economies to form a monetary union if the business cycles are synchronised across countries. The cointegration test and the Vahid and Engle (1993 ) test for common business cycles are conducted to examine their long‐run relationship and short‐run interactions in real outputs, respectively. Our study found that some pair countries in the region share both the long‐run and short‐run synchronous movements of the real outputs. In particular, the short‐run common business cycles are found in some pairs of ASEAN economies consisting of Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, and in the Northeast Asian region consisting of Hong Kong, Korea and Mainland China, as well as between Japan and Taiwan. These findings have important implications for the economies in terms of adjustment costs when considering the adoption of a monetary union.     

Business Cycles Synchronicity and Income Levels: Has Globalisation Brought us Closer Than Ever?

Research on business cycle linkages shows a tendency to model countries of relatively the same income levels jointly. However, the issue of whether these countries move along the same business cycles has not been formally investigated in the literature. In this paper, we take this approach and investigate whether each group of countries follows its own dynamics and is therefore subjected to the same business cycle and whether these cycles are independent of each other across income groups. Results indicate that high income per capita countries (HICs) tend to be guided by stronger similarity in business cycles than countries in the middle (MICs) and low income (LICs) groups. In search for an explanation of the business cycles synchronicity observed, panel data analysis was explored. The results from the robust fixed effects estimation show neither trade openness nor shocks to consumption underlie international business cycle synchronization, but rather shocks to oil prices.     

贸易条件、国际利率冲击与经济波动

开放经济条件下国际金融危机所带来的传染和溢出效应是当下国际宏观经济学的热点和核心问题,而随着中国经济改革开放正在向纵深发展,在危机传染机制下的中国经济正在经历各种外部条件的冲击。金融危机的传染机制对中国经济产生了显著的负面波及效应,文章基于开放经济的视角,构建了一个动态均衡模型并对中国经济波动特征进行了研究,模型引入了反映国际经济传导的两类关键冲击,即国际贸易条件冲击和国际融资利率冲击。参数校准后的数值模拟显示,开放经济模型能够较好的匹配我国实际经济的主要二阶距波动特征,进一步的波动性分解发现国际贸易条件冲击和国际融资利率冲击对中国经济波动有很强的解释力。政府在开放经济框架下应该加强对经常账户和国际资本流动的监管,使得中国经济在改革开放走向纵深的背景下稳定增长。     

Three Simple Techniques to Analyze a Complex Economic Phenomenon: The Case of Profits

This paper seeks to characterize the behavior of profits over the business cycle as a model for analyzing any economic series by a practicing business economist. It addresses three fundamental questions about profits that are common and critical to identifying the behavior of any macroeconomic series—mean-reversion, volatility, and trend. First, does profit growth over time exhibit mean-reverting behavior? Second, how volatile are profits, and does this volatility obscure the message of average profit growth? Third, how can we estimate a long-run trend growth component for profits and thereby separate profit cycles from its long-run trend growth component?     

On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR,Common Trends,and Common Cycles Evidence

The suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is examined. The authors identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric. Alternatively, the authors test for common trends and common business cycles among the GCC economies. They find that while the transitory demand shocks are typically symmetric, the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric. Furthermore, they do not find synchronous long‐run and short‐run movements in output. Despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration, the findings indicate that the conditions for forming a GCC monetary union have not as yet been met.     

The common sources of business cycles in Trans‐Pacific countries and the US? A comparison with NAFTA

This paper uses both a non‐structural and a structural approach to investigate the drivers of the business cycles in the US and 15 Trans‐Pacific (TP) countries. Our non‐structural analysis, based on a principal component methodology, reveals the shares of variation in macroeconomic variables that are due to factors common to both the US and the TP region, and factors that are region‐specific. We obtain similar measures by using a structural model (an estimated two‐country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model) that allows for common and correlated shocks across the two regions. The clear and common finding from our analyses is that common shocks explain a substantial amount of macroeconomic variation. Comparison with the NAFTA region, along this dimension, reveals that the US economy is more similar to the TP region (a wider region that also includes Mexico and Canada) than its two neighbours.     

The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade

Countries that trade more with each other tend to have more strongly correlated business cycles. Yet, traditional international business cycle models predict a much weaker link between trade and business cycle comovement. We propose that fluctuations in the number of varieties embedded in trade flows may drive the observed comovement by increasing the correlation among trading partners' aggregate productivity. Our hypothesis is that business cycles should be more strongly correlated between countries that trade a wider variety of goods. We find empirical support for this hypothesis. After decomposing trade into its extensive and intensive margins, we find that the extensive margin explains most of the trade–productivity and trade–output comovement. This result is striking because the extensive margin accounts for only a fourth of the variability in total trade. We then develop a two-country model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous entry, and fixed export costs, in which the aggregate productivity correlation increases with trade in varieties. A numerical exercise shows that our proposed mechanism increases business cycle synchronization compared with the levels predicted by traditional models.     

海峡两岸经济周期协动性的现状与趋势

利用中国大陆和台湾地区GDP增长率反映海峡两岸的经济周期波动,针对二者的相关分析表明,1990年以来,海峡两岸经济周期已经呈现一定程度的协动性特征,并且这种协动性具有不断增强的趋势。在经济周期协动性的传导机制方面,直观判断,两岸贸易往来与台商对大陆投资是经济周期波动的重要传导渠道,但世界市场经济景气波动的冲击影响也不容忽视。由于受两岸经济规模和结构的差异、两岸经贸交流的不对称性、大陆对外开放程度较低、以及经济运行规律之外政治干扰和政策限制等因素的影响,两岸经济周期协动性还未完全呈现其应有规模。