希腊主权债务危机:根源、影响和启示

为应对全球金融危机影响,2009年包括希腊在内的全球绝大多数国家均实施了积极的财政政策,希腊财政赤字急剧攀升,引发金融市场对其未来偿债能力担忧,由此产生了希腊主权债务危机问题。预计在欧元区其他国家以及欧盟的帮助下,希腊尚不会真正发生违约事件,但主权债务危机的影响短期内难以消除,主要发达经济体主权债务问题甚至有可能引发下一轮全球性危机。对中国而言,地方政府隐性债务问题应引起高度重视。     

Effect of exchange rate return on volatility spill-over across trading regions

This paper examines the effect of realized exchange rate returns on the volatility spill-over between the euro–US dollar and US dollar–yen currency pairs across the five trading regions: Asia, Asia–Europe overlap, Europe, Europe–America overlap and America. Modelling the interaction between returns and volatility in an autoregressive five-equation system, we find evidence that depreciation of the US dollar against the yen has a greater impact on the US dollar–yen volatility spill-over than appreciation in the subprime crisis period. Appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar against the euro does not appear to have an asymmetric effect on the euro–US dollar volatility spill-over. Our results support the notion that the yen may have been preferred to the euro as a ‘safe-haven’ currency relative to the US dollar during the subprime crisis period.     

东亚区域金融合作的选择探析

自从亚洲金融危机以后,东亚各国纷纷认识到开展区域金融合作的必要性,以增强抵御风险,化解危机的能力。而美元区和欧元区的相继建立既验证了最优货币区理论在实践上的可能性,也增强了东亚各国成功合作的信心。文章从合作的背景和动因,实际进展情况和最终目标,以及面临的困难这三个方面分析讨论了东亚区域金融合作的可行性,并进一步探讨了新加坡在合作中可扮演的角色。     

The Declining Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade

The introduction of the euro in 1999 eliminated exchange rate volatility between the members of the eurozone. Despite the elimination of currency risks, trade flows within the eurozone hardly increased (Bun and Klaassen in Oxf Bull Econ Stat 69:473–496, 2007, Santos Silva and Tenreyro, 2009). Using a standard gravity model, we find that nominal exchange rate volatility has had a negative effect on trade before 1985 but that this effect disappeared in later years, coinciding with the introduction and rapid diffusion of over-the-counter currency swaps. The estimated coefficient for the euro dummy does not change when we include nominal exchange rate volatility as an additional regressor. This confirms our finding that the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade has been small in more recent years.     

Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area

In the past decade, a set of euro area countries has accumulated large current account deficits. After a brief relaxation of the euro area internal imbalances in the wake of the financial crisis, it appears as if this pattern arises anew when times normalize again and Germany still sticks to export-led growth. This issue has been labelled one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe inter alia by the European Commission and some other players on the EU level. In this paper, we analyse the role of private restructuring and structural reforms for the urgently needed sustainable readjustment of intra-euro area current account balances. A panel regression reveals a significant impact of structural reforms on intra-euro area current account balances. This implies that in particular structural reforms and wage restraint in notorious current account and budget deficit countries such as Greece are highly suitable to support long-term economic stability in Europe.     

中国黄金市场与外汇市场间收益、波动溢出效应实证分析--基于VEC-DCC(BEKK)-BVEGARCH模型

用向量自回归动态二元EGARCH模型,对中国黄金市场与外汇市场间的收益与波动,在金融危机前后溢出效应进行分析。研究显示：美元兑人民币汇率和中国黄金不存在溢出效应,欧元兑人民币汇率对黄金存在负向溢出效应;较之金融危机以前,美元和欧元兑人民币汇率对黄金收益的波动溢出效应减弱,尤其是美元,危机前,黄金市场对来自美元和欧元外汇市场的信息冲击,存在显著＂杠杆效应＂;危机期间,市场间＂杠杆效应＂减弱。     

A Diagnostic on the West African Monetary Union

Deploying the classical optimum currency areas (OCA) theory and recent developments in the monetary literature, this paper evaluates the appropriateness of West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) as a monetary zone. Nine macroeconomic dimensions are investigated under which the first four items are quantified against a reference economy, namely the United States, the eurozone or China, while the rest are measured in absolute terms for time periods before and after the 2008‐2009 global financial crisis. Results could signify relative dominance of the three world's largest economies to the West African region. In addition to inherent asymmetries across the union, findings suggest the emerging Chinese yuan as an alternative to the euro as the monetary anchor.     

Greece’s Three-Act Tragedy: A Simple Model of Grexit vs. Staying Afloat inside the Single Currency Area

Against the backdrop of the Greek three-act tragedy, we present a theoretical framework for studying Greece’s recent debt and currency crisis. The model is built on two essential blocks: first, erratic macroeconomic policymaking in Greece is described using a stochastic regime-switching model; second, the euro area governments’ responses to uncertain macroeconomic policies in Greece are considered. The model’s mechanism and assumptions allow either for a Grexit from the euro area or, conversely, the avoidance of Greece’s default against its creditors. The model also offers useful guidance to understand key drivers of the long-winded negotiations between the Greek government and the “institutions”.     

欧元危机的逻辑

本次危机的根源是欧元区外围国家的过度举债和核心国家的有借必应。欧洲货币联盟的治理框架为成员国之间的过度信贷开了方便之门。为了研判欧元区的前景,将外围成员国分为四类:有清偿能力和无清偿能力的国家,具有纠正宏观失衡意愿和不具有纠正失衡意愿的国家。经过调整,西班牙和爱尔兰的债务状况已经好转;新任保守党政府或将帮助葡萄牙扭转颓势;希腊退出欧元区几成定局;技术派政府"新政"或为意大利迎来转机;法国对欧元区的态度或因大选发生转变。     

The Korean stock market volatility during the currency crisis and the credit crisis

This paper studies the volatility of the Korean stock market during the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998 and the global credit crisis of 2008–2009. We use a fad model with Markov switching heteroskedasticity, which was first proposed by Kim and Kim (1996). Using the monthly data from January 1980 to October 2009, we find that the volatility of the transitory component of the stock return, or fads, increased during the currency crisis, but did not rise much during the credit crisis. It implies that the stock price fluctuations were not driven by irrational sentiments during the recent global crisis as much as during the former crisis. However, when we consider the dollar value of the Korean stock index in order to estimate the volatility that foreign investors confront, we find that the volatility of the transitory component was raised during the credit crisis as well as during the currency crisis. That is, foreign investors experienced greater volatility than domestic investors in the recent financial market turmoil. This asymmetric volatility that domestic and foreign investors face is one of the characteristics of the credit crisis.For more detailed analysis, the same model was applied to the weekly data from January 2005 to October 2009 and provided the result that the data measured by won–dollar exchange rates were more increased than the raw data. It holds that foreign investors confronted much greater volatility than domestic investors while the stock volatility was relatively lower in the credit crisis state than in the currency crisis state.     

“欧猪五国”主权债务危机及欧元发展前景

正当全球经济刚刚走出百年一遇的金融危机而进入复苏之际,从希腊开始的欧洲主权债务危机又给世界经济以巨大冲击。本文以"欧猪五国"为切入点,从危机国家自身经济结构、欧元体制和外部冲击三方面探讨"欧猪五国"债务危机发生的原因,并分析其对"欧猪五国"发展、欧元区生存、欧盟一体化进程和全球经济复苏所产生的影响。通过各方救助,目前"欧猪五国"的主权债务危机已有所缓解,断言危机国家将退出欧元区并因此而最终导致欧元崩溃缺乏根据,但这些国家要重新达到欧元区财政趋同标准必须经过痛苦的调整过程。     

欧洲债务危机:原因、症结与出路

欧洲债务危机的发生既有内部原因又有外部原因。内部原因有欧元制度设计缺陷、危机国家政策失误、福利制度等,外部原因有金融危机影响、美元势力打压等。欧债危机的症结表现为六大矛盾,即欧元区国家与非欧元区国家之间的矛盾、欧元区内部发生危机国家与未发生危机国家之间的矛盾、援助国之间的矛盾、援助国内部的矛盾、债务国内部的矛盾、欧元与美元之间的矛盾。解决欧债危机必须多策并举:欧洲内部需要树立自信、增强他信,改革欧元、实施统一财政政策,保增长、促发展,改革福利制度;对外则需加强与美元势力的斗争,寻求中国等新兴工业化国家援助。     

The 2010 euro crisis stand-off between France and Germany: leadership styles and political culture

In this paper, we argue that the severity of the 2010 euro crisis was caused by and reveals differences in leadership styles and political culture between European countries, especially between France and Germany. We trace these differences to differences in underlying values: culture. There is a historic pattern, visible especially during the European integration process. Cultural differences explain differences in attitude towards leadership and IMF involvement, lead to a stand-off and, thereby, dramatically increase the uncertainty about the commitment of the eurozone and the EU towards Greece.     

Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration

This paper shows that exchange rate volatility promotes agglomeration of economic activity. Under flexible rates, firms prefer to locate in large countries, where they would enjoy lower variability of sales, thus reinforcing concentration of firms in such locations. Empirical evidence on OECD countries demonstrates that for small (large) countries or currency areas, exchange rate volatility has a long-run negative (positive) effect on net inward FDI flows. Two implications arise: creating a currency area fosters agglomeration towards the area and dispersion within the area. JEL Classification Numbers: F12, F31, F33, F4, L16, R12     

Time-varying beta and the Asian financial crisis: Evidence from the Asian industrial sectors

This paper empirically investigates the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98, and the period immediately afterwards, on the time-varying beta of four industrial sectors (chemical, finance, retail and industry) of Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. We apply daily data from 1992 to 2002 and the bivariate MA-GARCH model (BEKK) to create the time-varying industrial betas. Results provide evidence of the influence of the Asian financial crisis, and the period after, on the time-varying industrial betas of these countries. These results may have implications for investors who are interested in portfolio risk management.     

The two-sided effect of financial globalization on output volatility

This paper provides evidence for a significant relation between international financial markets integration and output volatility. In the framework of a threshold model, it is empirically shown that this relation depends on the financial risk of a country as perceived by investors. In order to proxy financial risk, a financial risk rating employed by multinational firms, banks, and equity and currency traders is used. This rating relies on debt to GDP ratios amongst other indicators. In countries with low financial risk, financial openness decreases output volatility while financial openness increases output volatility in countries with high financial risk. Extensive robustness checks confirm this result.     

Currency boards and Chinese banks in Malaya and the Philippines before World War II

This article examines the relationship between currency boards and the development of local Chinese deposit banking in Malaya and the Philippines before World War II. While in both countries Chinese banks filled an important gap in financial intermediation, the currency board system – an especially strict version of the classical gold standard – virtually ensured that these institutions remained small. Moreover, in the slump of the 1930s the currency board system's preclusion of a central bank and requirement to pay depositors in 100% metropolitan currency, together with the volatility of highly staple-dependent export economies, pushed Chinese banks to the verge of bankruptcy or beyond. Examination of the 1930s crisis in South-East Asia and the role of banks in it reveals more differences from than parallels with the 1990s experience.     

Labour costs dynamics in the Euro area: some empirical evidence

Little is known about how the introduction of a common currency and a single monetary policy has affected the labour cost dynamics in the Euro area. The literature has focused mainly on business cycle synchronisation. This paper analyses labour costs convergence in the Euro area since 1995, combining results from different data and two complementary approaches. First we present some relevant facts about wages and unit labour cost dynamics and, in a second phase, we investigate whether the physical introduction of the euro has changed the volatility and the synchronisation of labour costs cycles, in a context of globalisation. Overall, our results indicate that labour markets in the Euro area are very heterogeneous. However, some signs of labour cost convergence are beginning to emerge. After the circulation of the euro, it seems that a reduction in nominal unit labour costs differences and an increase on the degree of synchronisation has occurred, which has been strengthened in the economic and financial crisis period.     

Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia

In the aftermath of the recent global financial turmoil, sovereign spreads have exhibited a significant degree of volatility. This paper explores how much of these movements in the spreads of Asian economies reflected shifts in global risk aversion or country‐specific risks, directly from worsening fundamentals, or indirectly from spillovers originating in other sovereigns, or risks and uncertainty surrounding their exchange rates. This analysis finds that earlier in the crisis, the increase in market‐implied contagion led to an increase of sovereign bond yields relative to the swaps. Higher‐rated sovereign bonds in Asia benefited from the flight to quality that accompanied the increase in global risk aversion during this period. Once the systemic risks in the financial sectors worldwide were contained, the risk of sovereign spillovers eased, which, together with a fall in perceived currency‐related risks, led to a fall in sovereign bond yields relative to swaps yields across the board. Comparing the situation to that of Europe, the present paper concludes that the debt crisis in the euro area has not affected the perception of sovereign risks of Asian economies. In fact, a fall in exchange rate and spillover risks, combined with stronger fundamentals, have led to a continued normalization of Asian sovereign spreads since the height of the financial crisis.     

Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar

Foreign exchange reserve accumulation has risen dramatically in recent years. The introduction of the euro, greater liquidity in other major currencies, and the rising current account deficits and external debt of the United States have increased the pressure on central banks to diversify away from the US dollar. A major portfolio shift would significantly affect exchange rates and the status of the dollar as the dominant international currency. We develop a dynamic mean-variance optimization framework with portfolio rebalancing costs to estimate optimal portfolio weights among the main international currencies. Making various assumptions on expected currency returns and the variance–covariance structure, we assess how the euro has changed this allocation. We then perform simulations for the optimal currency allocations of four large emerging market countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), adding constraints that reflect a central bank's desire to hold a sizable portion of its portfolio in the currencies of its peg, its foreign debt and its international trade. Our main results are: (i) The optimizer can match the large share of the US dollar in reserves, when the dollar is the reference (risk-free) currency. (ii) The optimum portfolios show a much lower weight for the euro than is observed. This suggests that the euro may already enjoy an enhanced role as an international reserve currency (“punching above its weight”). (iii) Growth in issuance of euro-denominated securities, a rise in euro zone trade with key emerging markets, and increased use of the euro as a currency peg, would all work towards raising the optimal euro shares, with the last factor being quantitatively the most important. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 508–547.