A Distributional Analysis of the FairTax Plan: Annual and Lifetime Income Considerations

Dissatisfaction with the current federal tax system is fostering serious interest in the FairTax Plan, which would replace most of the federal taxes with a national retail sales tax. The FairTax is promoted as being progressive, but there is considerable skepticism of this claim. We examine the distributional effects of the FairTax, as well as the current system it intends to replace, under both annual income and lifetime income approaches. Global measures of progressivity suggest that the current federal tax system is progressive while the FairTax is regressive. Our results are also robust to different assumptions used for estimation.     

在深化结构性减税中推动税制改革

近年来,党中央、国务院决定推行结构性减税的税收政策,从个人所得税的起征点提高,到营业税改增值税试点改革等税收政策,我国在减税政策上采取了实际行动。减税在理论上能刺激投资和消费,促进经济的增长,因而,减税逐渐成为了世界各国刺激经济的措施。实际上,我国实施结构性减税不仅是应对金融危机的临时之举,从长远来看,如何深化结构性减税成为我国当今税收改革的方向,也是增强群众幸福感的一个重要举措。     

企业国际化发展中税收政策运用的国际比较

政府税收政策的制定和实施对企业的国际化发展起重要的促进作用,无论在发达国家还是发展中国家,税收政策都为企业的发展融入全球经济提供了必不可少的条件。随着中国经济形势的变化和发展,我国税收政策面临诸多挑战,和发达国家比较,不仅存在一些不合理的因素,甚至和有些发展中国家的某些税收政策相比,也有不足之处。本文试图分别从出口、海外引资及境外投资等3种企业国际化主要形式入手,对比典型发达国家及发展中国家与我国政府税收政策的差异、优劣,佐证企业的国际化发展绝对离不开政府税收政策的支持和指导,也离不开具体的税收制度提供的服务和帮助。     

企业所得税政策调整及其影响

2008年1月1日起我国将实施新的企业所得税法,本文在比较新旧企业所得税政策的基础上,分析总结了税收政策调整对我国经济、税收收入、内资企业、外资企业等可能产生的影响,进而提出相应的对策。     

随机增长模型下的税收效应

Turalay Kenc(2004)在一个扩展的随机模型中(不假设常量的投资机会集)分析了资本收入税对增长率、资产组合份额、债券收益率的影响效应。本文在随机资产组合份额的情况下,利用Grinols和Turnovsky(1998)的模型和方法,对此也进行了研究。讨论了具有跨期最优化代理人、随机增长经济中的资本收入税效应,这里,政府可以通过税收、发行货币、发行债券来为它的支出融资。除了货币和政府的债券以外,消费者在他的财富中可以持有风险股票(资本)。得到的部分结论与Turalay Kenc(2004)的一致,也有部分结论不一致。此外,本文还分析了资本收入税对利率、通货膨胀率、本国投资率、福利的影响效应。本文得出的部分结论,尤其是与Turalay Kenc(2004)不一致的结论,在我国也得到了实证支持。     

The Tax Effect on Taxable Income from Privately Held Businesses

The implications of the tax elasticity of taxable income have been widely discussed in the literature. This study uses the reported rate of return to capture the effects of tax changes on taxable income from privately held businesses. Households' decisions concerning reporting rates of return are embedded in a selection model of business investment decisions. With 1983-1989 Survey of Consumer Finances panel data, the tax elasticity of the reported rates of return on privately held businesses is found to be positive and large. The tax elasticity of taxable income from privately held businesses is thus crucial for policy evaluation. Several reasons for the high tax elasticity and the implications of it are also discussed.     

The Distributional Effects of the Trump and Clinton Tax Proposals

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the Democratic and Republican candidates for President of the U.S. in 2016, proposed several changes in the federal tax code. Hillary Clinton would add a personal income tax surcharge of 4% on high annual incomes, limit the tax benefits of non-charitable deductions, set a minimum tax rate of 30% on taxpayers earning more than one million dollars a year, increase the tax rates on capital gains for taxpayers in the top tax bracket, and expand the base of the estate tax. Donald Trump would reduce the number of personal income tax rates, increase the standard personal deduction, cut all taxes on business income to no more than 15%, and abolish the inheritance tax. Using a tax calculator model, we estimate the static effects of these very different changes. Over a ten-year period, Clinton’s proposals would raise federal tax revenue by a total of $816 billion, an increase of 1.9% over projected baseline revenue, while Trump’s tax changes would lower tax revenue by $9.8 trillion. Clinton’s higher taxes would reduce incomes and revenue somewhat, while Trump’s tax cuts would potentially boost output substantially. Using an extended simulation model, we find that 86% of the incremental tax burden of Clinton’s tax increases would fall on those in the top tenth of the income distribution. Most other taxpayers would see only minor changes in their tax burdens, and the revenue and redistributive effects of her proposed changes are relatively modest. Meanwhile, 70% of Trump’s tax cuts would go to those in the top decile, and the effects are large, with gains of over $15,000 annually per person for this group, compared to gains of less than $500 per person for the poorest 40% of the population. On tax policy, the two candidates propose strikingly different policies.     

Sectoral Estimates of Informality: A New Method and Application for the Turkish Economy

In this paper, we use results of a novel survey covering 1,000 firms from 16 different sectors of the Turkish economy along with a two‐sector dynamic general equilibrium model to measure the extent of informality in these sectors. Moreover, we also evaluate the effects of two different policy tools on informality, namely, income taxes and tax enforcement. Our results show that while both are effective policy tools in dealing with informality, tax enforcement is a relatively more efficient tool and tax becomes quite ineffective at lower levels of informality.     

The Later You Pay,the Higher the k

This paper shows the importance of the age path (life-cycle timing) of any tax for the accumulation of capital in the economy. Income, consumption, and wage taxes differ in their age paths as well as their incentive effects. This paper studies how the differing age path of each tax affects the capital accumulation of the economy in an empirically calibrated life-cycle model. We investigate lump-sum “age” taxes and find in every case that the later the person pays tax, the higher the k of the economy. To analyze the life-cycle timing effect of conventional transactions-based taxes (income, consumption, and wage), we replace each tax with a lump-sum age tax that has the identical age path of tax payments over the life cycle. We find that the timing effect is quantitatively important and often causes the impact of a tax on capital accumulation to be very different from what would be predicted from the incentive effect.     

皖江示范区税收政策现状分析与对策研究

税收政策是政府调节地区经济发展的重要手段,它利用税收机制作用于区域经济的各个方面。文章主要从税收角度研究和探索皖江示范区的产业转移,通过对皖江示范区税收收入情况和税收政策的分析,说明税收政策在皖江城市带承接产业转移过程中所起的作用,并从问题分析中梳理出制约产业转移的税收因素。在此基础上,对皖江示范区在税收体制改进、区内税收协调与合作、税收分配机制、税收优惠政策和税收一体化等方面提出了相关对策与建议,从而使皖江示范区更好地利用合理的税收政策、发挥税收的杠杆作用,为承接产业转移提供示范效应。     

International spillover effects of consumption taxation

This paper investigates the international spillover effects of a revenue-neutral increase in consumption taxes coupled with a reduction in wage taxes in a two-country open economy. Many economists feel that the consumption tax would be an improvement over the income tax. This paper provides counterexamples to the conventional wisdom. We show that conversion to a consumption tax may reduce capital accumulation and may transmit a negative externality to the rest of the countries in the world economy under certain conditions: endogenous labor supply and bequests.     

个人所得税政策调整影响及进一步改革建议

文章认为,2011年的个人所得税的政策调整,对我国经济生活的方方面面产生了较大的影响。对劳动力供给、个人投资和消费、国家财政以及社会分配等会产生有利的影响;对财政收入等会产生不利影响。同时也应看到,因调整未触及个人所得税转型等根本性问题,费用扣除不合理、分类分项扣除不公平和应对物价上涨乏力等关键性问题没有纳入调整视线,需要待时机成熟时进行相应的改革。     

促进低碳经济发展财税政策的国际实践及启示

文章论述了欧盟、美国、日本等经济发达国家在促进低碳经济发展方面的财税政策,分析其特点,并结合我国国情,从建立绿色预算制度、加大财政投入力度、改革税收制度、完善税收优惠政策以及加强制度创新、提高财税政策效果等方面提出了促进低碳经济发展的对策建议。     

Tax evasion and intertemporal choice

It has often been argued that the misreporting of regular wage income is limited by third-party withholding and reporting requirements. However, income arising from savings investment is often not subject to such withholding requirements. This paper uses a simple dynamic model to examine the problem of tax evasion of investment income. Assuming that individuals can misreport investment income but not wage income, it is shown that alterations in the audit rate and penalty rates affect an individual's saving (or investment) decisions. This suggests that parameters traditionally used to control tax evasion impact the aggregate output of an economy and the rate of economic growth. This paper is based on the author's dissertation completed at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. The author is indebted to the dissertation committee, Helmuth Cremer (co-chair), Firouz Gahvari (co-chair), Catherine Eckel, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, and Richard Steinberg for their guidance and suggestions. All remaining errors are the author's responsibility.     

可税性视角下网络主播个税征管问题探究

网络直播在发展中产生了许多新业态、新形式,网络主播的收入也不断增加.但目前在网络主播的个税征管上存在着多重困境,导致网络直播中税款流失严重.故有必要从经济、法律、征管三方面分析网络主播收入的可税性,从理论上明确对其征税的合法性与可行性,并强调从税法入手进行规制,为网络主播收入的征税问题提出建议.     

The Effect of Changes in Income Shifting on Affiliate Managers' Internal Reporting Decisions*†

This study examines the interplay between tax and internal reporting incentives among affiliates of multinational corporations (MNCs). MNCs face limited information flows that may prevent affiliates' performance metrics to be responsive immediately to changes in the firm's tax planning. Using granular data of affiliates belonging to MNCs from 21 European countries, our study provides new empirical evidence of affiliate internal reporting responses induced by changing tax plans. When high-tax-rate countries tighten income shifting rules, we first document that income shifting is reduced and low-tax-rate affiliates have less income. Second, we predict and document that managers of these low-tax-rate affiliates offset this decrease in profits by managing upwards a key performance metric: affiliate earnings. Our results are consistent with firms not quickly adjusting the affiliate managers' incentives in the face of changing tax planning strategies, and affiliates managing reported earnings to offset the effect of changes in the tax planning of the firm. Cross-sectional analyses provide further evidence consistent with the theory underlying the main tests. The results support the policy of tightening income shifting rules when the objective is to reduce income shifting, and firms' central management would benefit from considering the implications of changing tax plans on the assessment of local managers.     

中国农村投资与农民收入和经济增长——对两类农村投资效果的分析

保持经济较快增长、实现农民持续增收是我国经济政策的核心目标.大量研究表明,投资是实现我国经济保持增长的重要动力,但不同投资的性质决定了其效果和影响的层面相差很大,文章认为投资发生地的不同也将导致投资的效果有所差异.本文利用计量手段,定量的经验分析了我国1990-2010年的数据,比较分析了农村人力资本投资和农村固定资产投资对农民收入、经济增长这两大指标的影响结果,发现固定资产投资更具有滞后效应,人力资本投资总效应更强的结论,并对此进行了解释.     

基础设施建设支出、结构性减税与最优政策选择

财政政策的最优政策选择问题对于国家宏观调控政策的出台具有指导意义。既往的研究忽略了利用动态一般均衡的方法探求具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出与结构性减税支出的政策选择问题。本文利用引入基础设施建设支出和结构性减税的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,测算比较基建支出和结构性减税的政策福利效应。研究表明：具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出不仅可以通过提高生产效率的方式促进产出,还可以通过挤入居民消费的方式加强政策福利效应。经过测算,短期的基建支出乘数大于结构性减税的政策乘数。同时,基建支出长期平均产出乘数小于结构性减税的平均产出乘数。与结构性减税政策相比,增加基建支出对于财政资金有限的政府是短期内更加有效的产出刺激政策,但在长期中,结构性减税政策不仅具有较高的政策效应,还可以从消费、劳动、投资等角度实现结构性政策目标。进一步研究发现,地区经济发展水平的不同会导致各地区的最优政策选择存在差异性：发达地区可以通过结构性税收政策解决结构性问题的同时实现长期经济增长;而欠发达地区则更应该注重运用基础设施建设为主的支出政策以促进经济增长;但随着人口逐渐从欠发达地区流出,提高欠发达地区的基建支出是否是可行之策,还需要考虑区域协调发展等诸多因素。     

世界经济新格局与中国经济长期增长前景

中国各行业企业资本边际收益率普遍下降,意味着中国宏观经济增速下行已成为必然趋势。实际上,这标志着中国在完成基本工业化后开始从高速增长阶段进入中低速增长阶段,这也是国际发达经济体和东亚新兴经济体都遵循的发展规律。面对经济增长的趋势性变化,货币政策对经济增长的刺激作用是非常有限的,大量超发货币只会加剧信贷泡沫、增加企业尝债能力的系统性风险。当前经济的核心问题在于宏观税赋过高和企业盈利能力不足,因此,最重要的财政政策应该是实施总量减税而不仅是结构性减税,尤其是对中小企业减税减赋,才能增加就业,提高居民消费比例,转变经济增长方式。     

增值税降率对企业绩效与投资行为的影响研究——兼论增值税降率微观传导过程中的企业异质性问题

流转税的"税负转嫁"特征和现实企业的"议价能力"使理论上完全价外中性的增值税变为现实中的价内非中性,导致增值税降率微观传导机制"黑箱"。文章利用2015-2019年分行业上市公司的财务数据,采用双重差分模型实证检验了2018年增值税降率政策对企业投资行为、研发行为和制度性交易成本产生的影响。实证结果表明,现实中的增值税是价内非中性而非理论上的完全价外中性;降率的"抵扣冲减效应"对固定资产投资的直接负向作用显著,而降率的"收入效应"对固定资产投资的间接正向作用却不显著,最终降率政策"抵扣冲减效应"大于"收入效应"减少了固定资产投资;降率显著促进了"强势企业"的研发行为,对"弱势企业"无显著促进作用;降率节约了管理性交易成本的同时却导致政治性交易成本增加。妥善处理好增值税降率微观传导过程中的企业异质性问题,尤其是保护好降率过程中可能受损的中小企业是落实好普惠性减税的关键。