A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE OF AFTA'S PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the impressive economic performance of most of its members have increased the weight of the region's views in world fora. However, ASEAN has been unsuccessful in fostering a regional integration arrangement (RIA) leading to an increase in intraregional trade and foreign direct investment. In January 1992, ASEAN launched the Asean Free Trade Area (AFTA) seeking to establish a free trade area (FTA) by 2008.
Market integration increases economic interdependence and thereby raises the need for policy integration and discipline. This paper argues that a number of difficulties that ASEAN faced in promoting intraregional trade are likely to continue to affect AFTA (e.g., low economic complementarity and macroeconomic imbalances requiring large changes in equilibrium real exchange rates). The experience of other RIAs suggests other potential problems.
AFTA's prospects of evolving into deeper forms of sustainable integration are remote. Some cooperation in areas of common interest seems likely.     

我国发展知识经济存在的问题及应采取的对策

本文从知识经济的主要特征出发,分析了中国发展知识经济所面临的问题和具有的有利条件,针对中国国情提出了中国发展知识经济应采取的对策和方案。面临的问题主要有:科技体系结构存在缺陷,工业化尚未完成,经济结构低级化,人力资源数量有余而质量欠佳以及社会经济宏观调控能力差等。中国发展知识经济应采取以下的方案和对策:实施科教兴国战略,增强国家的宏观调控能力,加强政府部门的科学决策能力,搞好知识经济人才的选拔,办好高新技术产业开发区,用高新技术改造传统产业以及发展知识含量高的服务业和信息业等。     

THE PECULIAR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS OF PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL IN EUROPE

Most European industries have a history of gradually opening international markets, with growing international capital mobility and increasing free trade of goods and services. However, although labour markets have been officially deregulated as well, there is much less international mobility of labour, mainly due to cultural and social barriers. An apparent exception to the rule been the industry of professional team sports in Europe, where the Bosman verdict in 1995 has freed the European player market while the product market was still nationally protected. In this paper, we try to derive the consequences of this deviant evolution in the European sports industry, concentrating on the competitive balance within and between national leagues and on the player salary levels, using a simplified ‘two country–four team’ model with quadratic revenue functions.     

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY: A REVIEW

Several different approaches to international comparison of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) have now emerged. Among these are the time-series approach, the panel approach, and the cross-section approach. This paper compares methodologies of these different approaches and results that have been obtained from their application. The comparison of results is conducted in the context of two samples, namely the sample of G7 countries and a large sample that includes developing nations. It is found that while there are broad agreements in results, there exist considerable differences too. The analysis shows how these differences can be related, in part, to differences in methodology. The paper also shows how these different approaches to international TFP-comparison can play a complementary role in enhancing our understanding of such important phenomena as technological diffusion and TFP-convergence.     

NEW CLASSICAL MACROECONOMIC THEORY AND FISCAL RULES: SOME METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS

This paper evaluates the theoretical basis of New ClassicalMacroeconomics (NCM) in general, and in particular the basisof one of NCM's main policy conclusions, namely fiscal rules.We analyse NCM in terms of its assumptions of market clearingand rational expectations formations and show how its call forfiscal rules is derived. We argue that NCM is describing a staticworld with no uncertainty. Indeed, we argue that fixed fiscalrules can only make sense in such a world. In view of NCM'sinstrumentalist position, its predictions are then discussedin light of the empirical evidence. The results are discouragingfor proponents of NCM. Our conclusion is that NCM has low explanatoryand predictive power and, as such, does not provide a strongbasis for determining economic policy.     

SOME INTERNATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN APPROACHES TO INDUSTRIAL POLICY

This paper reviews some general objectives and means of implementing industrial policy, and then focuses on what seem to be the key issues. Next, various patterns and results of industrial policy experiences in Japan and several Western European countries are reviewed and contrasted with the more limited U.S. industrial policy efforts. Finally, the discussion turns to key determinants of international competitiveness and limited ways in which U.S. governmental policies could make constructive contributions.     

知识经济背景下上海高新技术产业发展的现状及问题

本文通过对知识经济和高新技术产业的关系、知识经济对上海产业结构高度化的影响以及上海高新技术产业基础结构和技术创新能力的分析,详细探讨了上海高新技术产业发展的现状和存在的主要问题,并在此基础上提出了知识经济背景下加快上海高新技术产业发展的具体对策措施。     

当前我国东西合作历史、问题及发展对策

全面建设小康社会下,关于东西合作的研究日益显得重要。文章首先以新中国成立为分界点对东西合作的历史进行了回顾。以此为基础,对当前东西合作现状与成就进行了阐述,并归纳了三条成功经验:政府高度重视和政策支持、企业及民间的积极参与及对口支援、对口帮扶。然后,结合部分调研成果就不管是历史上还是当前甚至今后东西合作都无法逃避的几个关键问题谈了几点认识,如东西部合作各方的利益分配关系、政府干预与市场机制的关系及东西部区域分工模式等。最后,提出了一些相应对策:形成利益共享,风险共担机制;解决资金短缺与投融资政策问题;建立专项法律规范东西部合作与联动;国家支持和市场机制结合起来。     

MACROECONOMIC AND REDISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF CONSUMPTION TAXES IN THE USA*

This paper studies the effect of an increase in consumption taxes using a dynamic general equilibrium model of overlapping generations calibrated to the US economy. When the proceeds are used to reduce income taxes, the reform raises the aggregate capital and labour supply in the long run. Workers increase labour supply immediately in response to the reform, while consumption rises only gradually. The tax reform also transfers wealth from old consumers to young consumers. As a result, while future generations experience significant welfare gains, current generations, particularly old consumers, tend to experience sizable welfare losses. When the proceeds are used for a lump‐sum transfer, the aggregate capital and labour both decrease in the long run. This reform is welfare‐improving for the current low‐income households.