Residential Water Demand in the Northwest of Spain

A panel of monthly aggregate data from the Northwest of Spain is used to estimate domestic water demand functions under linear and non-linear tariffs. Price, billing, climatic, and sociodemographic variables are used as explanatory variables. The use of intraannual data constitutes a relevant contribution in the European context. Overall marginal price elasticity estimates lie between –0.12 and –0.17. Summer-only elasticities and elasticities associated with uses beyond the effectively free allowances seem significantly higher. Climatic variables significantly affect monthly use, although probably less than in other wealthier and drier areas. Domestic water use appears to be a normal good.     

Long-run Study of Residential Water Consumption

The estimation of dynamic models and themeasure of long-run effects arerare in residential water demand studies. Weshow in this paper that a dynamicmodel of water consumption can be derived froma structural optimisation programsolved by local communities. Thisnonlinear model is estimated on asample of French municipalities and is foundasymptotically equivalent to a dynamic panel data model that is linear in theparameters. The latter includes anoriginal error-component structure that allowsfor a flexible heterogeneity pattern, including both the usual idiosyncraticeffect, and an additional individualeffect affected by a multiplicative time-varyingparameter. As usual GMM estimators for panel data are not consistent inthis case, we propose a new GMMprocedure that yields consistent and efficientestimates of short- and long-runprice elasticities (respectively −0.26 and−0.40).     

Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand

Much of the short‐run movement in energy demand in the UK is seasonal, and the contribution of long‐run factors to short‐run forecasts is slight. Nevertheless, using a variety of techniques, including a recently developed estimation procedure that is applicable irrespective of the orders of integration of the data, we obtain a long‐run income elasticity of demand of about one third, and we are unable to reject a zero price elasticity. An econometric model is shown to provide superior short‐run forecasts to well‐known seasonal time series models ex post , but is inferior to Box‐Jenkins SARMA models when the determinants themselves have to be forecast. However, the relatively short data sample and small number of forecasts suggest caution in generalising these results.     

Semiparametric Estimation of Simultaneous-Equation Microeconometric Models with Index Restrictions

This article introduces semiparametric methods for the estimation of simultaneous-equation microeconometric models with index restrictions. The methods are motivated by a semiparametric minimum-distance procedure, which unifies the estimation of both regression-type and linear or nonlinear simultaneous-equation models without emphasis on the construction of instrumental variables. Single-equation and systematic estimation methods and optimal weighting procedures are considered. The estimators are √ n -consistent and asymptotically normal. For the estimation of nonparametric regression and some sample selection models where the variances of disturbances are functions of the same indices, the optimal weighted estimator attains Chamberlain's efficient bound for models with conditional moment restrictions. The weighted estimator is shown to be optimal within a class of semiparametric instrumental variables estimators.
JEL classification numbers: C14, C24, C34.     

加强城市水资源需求管理的现实分析与对策

要实现城市经济的高增长,目前迫切要解决水瓶颈制约问题,特别是必须实现水资源的系统化的需求管理。在健全水资源管理模式的前提下,建立合理的宏观与微观相结合的级差水价体系,科学界定水权,创建高效运行的水权市场,实现水资源在城市内部、城市之间的合理配置,从而为城市经济的可持续发展提供重要的前提和基础。     

城市再生水的需求分析

目前，我国城市再生水回用事业发展的一个主要制约因素就是再生水市场需求非常有限。本文针对这一问题，对城市再生水的需求进行了深入分析，建立了再生水需求函数模型，详细分析了再生水需求的影响因素。最后，在需求分析的基础上，提出了促进再生水回用事业发展的对策建议。     

基于水资源需求侧管理的水价制度探讨

价格是调整水资源供需平衡的重要经济杠杆,是引导用户合理用水和节约用水最为重要的经济手段。面对我国水资源日益紧缺的严峻形势,本文借鉴电力部门用电管理采用的需求侧管理技术,探讨了实施水资源需求侧管理的水价制度,着重分析了高峰负荷定价、论质水价在水资源需求侧管理中的作用,同时指出建立水资源需求侧管理的水价制度应该注意的几个问题。     

住房抵押贷款的违约风险分析

本文运用期权数值方法分析住房抵押贷款借款者的违约行为,主要是分析抵押贷款违约期权的最优实施边界。这使得我们能够解释哪些房价和利率组合会引发借款者违约以及未来的违约概率。我们发现导致违约的房产价格高度依赖于同期市场利率,而且违约与贷款类型高度相关。我们考察了次优出售和再融资的情形,还考察了借款者面临违约声誉损失的情形,结果表明期权数值方法是稳健可靠的。本文的分析还使我们对美国次贷危机有更为客观理性的认识。     

Internal finance and growth: Microeconometric evidence on Chinese firms

Using a panel of 79,841 Chinese firms over the period 2000-2007, we examine the extent to which liquidity constraints affect firms' assets growth. We find that state owned enterprises are not affected, while the availability of internal finance represents a binding constraint for the growth of private firms, especially those operating in coastal regions, with negligible foreign ownership. Thanks to their high productivity, cash flow is, however, so abundant for these firms that they are able to grow at a very fast rate, despite being discriminated against by financial institutions. Hence, well developed external capital markets may not always be needed for fast economic growth.     

节能居住建筑的开发分析

在国家提倡建设资源节约型社会的形势下,开发节能居住建筑已成为我国经济发展亟待解决的重要问题.文章分析了我国当前节能居住建筑开发中存在的主要问题,并提出了加快节能居住建筑开发的有效途径.     

Microeconometric models of infrequently purchased goods: An application to household pork consumption

The double-hurdle and infrequency-of-purchase models are generalized with the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation in the dependent variable. The resulting specifications feature more flexible parameterization and error distributions than the untransformed models. Using the 1987–88 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey data on household pork consumption, a nonnested test suggests that the IHS double-hurdle model provides better characterization of the data-generating process than the IHS infrequency-of-purchase model but the elasticities derived from these models are similar. Own-price effects on the probability and level of consumption are negative and significant, but the elasticities are small. Income and cross-price effects are not significant. Household age composition, education, gender of meal planner, and race are among the demographic variables that affect consumption.     

The Demand for Water: Consumer Response to Scarcity

Provision of water raises several issues for municipal utility companies and other suppliers, including reliability of supply in arid regions or during droughts, equity issues that arise because water is literally a necessity, and heterogeneity in consumer response to regulatory policy. We combine experimental and survey responses to investigate demand for water. The experiments simulate water consumption from a potentially exhaustible source, revealing heterogeneous demand for water. We estimate econometrically water demand for different consumer groups. A regulator could use estimates of disaggregated demand to attain conservation goals by designing an incentive compatible pricing system. The example given achieves a conservation goal while minimizing enforcement costs and welfare loss.     

The Demand for Water by Single-Metered and Group-Metered Households

This paper examines water consumption in group-metered households. A utility-maximising model is developed in which the marginal price schedule is approximated by a polynomial function of water consumption. The model is modified to allow for an incentive for group-metered households to consume more water than if they were separately metered. This occurs if households do not expect their own increase in water consumption to be matched by other households sharing the meter, so that part of the marginal cost of water is shifted to other households. Estimates using Western Australian data are, however, unable to detect any significant effect of this kind, perhaps because the price response itself is small.     

新能源汽车市场需求分析

新能源汽车具有无污染、低噪声及节约能源等诸多优点,在我国推广多年,且国家的优惠福利政策不断,但其在我国的发展却并不明显。我国新能源汽车的发展还不完善,例如目标市场的不明确,存在诸多制约因素等问题。但作为汽车新四化的大趋势,新能源汽车的市场及发展前景都很可观。为了解决我国新能源汽车发展的弊端,文章提出了三点建议:制定统一的新能源汽车行业标准、完善新能源汽车的政策扶持制度、利用网络宣传新能源汽车以及政策。     

Microeconometric decompositions of aggregate variables: an application to labour informality in Argentina

This article illustrates the use of microeconometric decomposition techniques to characterize changes in aggregate variables. In particular, it studies the effect of changes in the employment structure on the labour informality rate for salaried workers in the greater Buenos Aires area (Argentina). To that aim it computes the difference between the informality rate at moment t and the rate that results from combining the population at moment t with the parameters estimated at moment t that link observable individual characteristics to the informality decision. The article concludes that the deep change of the employment structure in Argentina during the 1980s and the 1990s has had a significant but minor effect on the labour informality rate.     

需求弹性理论分析及企业决策应用

需求价格弹性是需求弹性分类中的一种,它与企业的销售收入有着直接的关系,而传统理论对于需求价格弹性与企业销售收入间关系的结论不够准确,本文在传统理论的基础上,更进一步的给出相关的证明。并且本文也分析需求弹性理论在企业决策中的重要应用。     

新疆保险中介需求分析

作为一种制度安排，保险中介的存在有利于提高保险人和投保人双方的福利。影响新疆保险中介需求的因素主要为市场化水平低，保险公司改制速度缓慢，产品创新能力差，保险中介发展跟不上保险公司规模的增长等。要加快新疆保险中介的发展，就应通过发展保险供给主体以增强市场竞争，加大国有保险公司改革力度，支持保险中介发展，转变经营方式，提高核心竞争力，使中介公司在保险市场中发挥更大的作用，完善新疆保险市场。     

扩内需背景下投资需求影响因素实证分析——以1979—2009年为例

投资需求是内需的重要组成部分。基于扩大内需的现实背景,运用1979—2009年的宏观数据,从国内市场角度实证分析了中国投资需求的主要影响因素。结果发现,从全国范围来看,只有产出对投资需求存在显著的正向影响,消费、物价水平和利率水平的影响却并不显著;而对以浙江省为代表的东部发达地区来说,除利率变量之外,产出、消费、物价水平都与投资需求存在显著的正相关关系;全国与浙江省投资需求影响因素的差异也在一定程度上反映了收入差距、市场化水平与投资结构等因素会对投资需求的形成产生潜在的间接影响。     

消费需求影响经济增长的实证研究

消费需求对经济增长和经济稳定具有重要作用。改革开放以来,在拉动经济增长的三驾马车中,消费需求是拉动中国经济增长的第一位的、主导的因素,同时,消费需求还是阻止经济剧烈波动的稳定力量。