Incomplete markets: transverse financial structures

Summary. In a multiperiod economy with incomplete markets and assets with payoff depending on the price history (e.g., asset and derivatives), we show that in order to get endowment generic existence of an equilibrium it is not needed to alter settlement features such as when payments are made and when the asset is traded. This is non-trivial as each such characteristic introduces a non-generic subclass of financial instruments. We show essentially that expiry date payments are the only payments that one needs perturbing (if at all). For previous periods - the P&L discovery map - is the one relevant for wealth transfers. This map transfers wealth between one period and the next by associating to each portfolio next period potential profit and losses as a function of the revealed information at the node. All present values involved can in general - because of backward induction pricing structure - be appropriately controlled via expiry payoffs only. This enables us to extend two-period work and introduce Transverse Financial Structures for multiperiod economies, where one cannot identify the payoffs of financial instruments to the P&L discovery map (in other words we introduce some financial ingeneering for Transverse Financial Structures). We capitalize on that difference using unexploited “maturity payout degrees of freedom” and rolling back the uncertainty tree. As an application of this approach we prove a conjecture by Magill and Quinzii that commodity forward contracts lead to endowment generic existence of an equilibrium in a multiperiod set-up. Received: June 25, 1999; revised version: April 4, 2001     

Incomplete information and singleton cores in matching markets

We study ordinal Bayesian Nash equilibria of stable mechanisms in centralized matching markets under incomplete information. We show that truth-telling is an ordinal Bayesian Nash equilibrium of the revelation game induced by a common belief and a stable mechanism if and only if all the profiles in the support of the common belief have singleton cores. Our result matches the observations of Roth and Peranson [The redesign of the matching market for American physicians: some engineering aspects of economic design, Amer. Econ. Rev. 89 (1999) 748-780] in the National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) in the United States: (i) the cores of the profiles submitted to the clearinghouse are small and (ii) while truth-telling is not a dominant strategy most participants in the NRMP truthfully reveal their preferences.     

Asymmetric information and survival in financial markets

Summary. In the evolutionary setting for a financial market developed by Blume and Easley (1992), we consider an infinitely repeated version of a model á la Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) with asymmetrically informed traders. Informed traders observe the realisation of a payoff relevant signal before making their portfolio decisions. Uninformed traders do not have direct access to this kind of information, but can partially infer it from market prices. As a counterpart for their privileged information, informed traders pay a per period cost. As a result, information acquisition triggers a trade-off in our setting. We prove that, so long as information is costly, uninformed traders survive.JEL Classification Numbers: D50, D82, G14.I am deeply indebted to Luca Anderlini for his helpful guidance. I also benefited from discussion with Larry Blume, David Easley, Jayasri Dutta, Thorsten Hens, Hamid Sabourian, Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé and Hyun Song Shin. Useful comments came from an anonymous referee and participants to seminars in Barcelona, Bielefeld, Cambridge, Manchester, Oxford, Rotterdam, Venice, Zurich, to the PhD Awards Italian tour in Rome, Naples, Padova and Milan, and to ESEM99 and EEA99 in Santiago de Compostela.     

Intertemporal pricing in markets with differential information

Summary This paper provides a theory of intertemporal pricing in a small market with differential information about the realizations of a stochastic process which determines demand. We study the sequential equilibria in stationary strategies of the stochastic game between a seller and buyer. The seller has zero cost of producing one unit of a non-durable good in all market periods. The buyer's value for the good is a random variable governed by a simple Markov process. At the beginning of each period the unit's value is determined by nature and is privately revealed to the buyer. The seller posts a single price offer each period, which the buyer either accepts or rejects. Only two types of price paths emerge in equilibrium: either prices are constant, or they have persistent cycles between a low and a high value. In both cases, however, prices are sticky in the sense that changes in price are less frequent than changes in the economy's fundamentals.We thank John Rust and Asher Wolinsky for helpful comments. We also gratefully acknowledge financial support from NSF grant SES 89-09242.     

Incomplete markets and individual risks

Summary This paper studies the incomplete markets model with financial assets when the only missing markets are for individual risks. There are no aggregate risks in the economy. Assuming the individual risks are only privately observable, the only equilibria that are implementable by anonymous mechanisms are those in which prices do not vary across states of the world. Such equilibria always exist. Generically, they are locally unique and depend continuously on the parameters of the economy, just like complete-markets equilibria. Generically, there is also an infinite-dimensional manifold of equilibria in which prices do vary across states of the world. These equilibria are isomorphic to sunspot equilibria.I am grateful to Dave Cass for several helpful discussions and to Darrell Duffie for his comments on an earlier draft.     

The tradeoff between risk sharing and information production in financial markets

The production of information in financial markets is limited by the extent of risk sharing. The wider a stock's investor base, the smaller the risk borne by each shareholder and the less valuable information. A firm which expands its investor base without raising capital affects its information environment through three channels: (i) it induces incumbent shareholders to reduce their research effort as a result of improved risk sharing, (ii) it attracts potentially informed investors, and (iii) it may modify the composition of the base in terms of risk tolerance or liquidity trading. Implications for individual firms and the market as a whole are derived.     

Intertemporal pricing in laboratory posted offer markets with differential information

Summary. This paper analyzes intertemporal seller pricing and buyer purchasing behavior in a laboratory retail market with differential information. A seller posts one price each period that a buyer either accepts or rejects. Trade occurs over a sequence of "market periods" with a random termination date. The buyer and seller are differentially informed: The seller's cost of producing a unit of a fictitious good is known and constant in all periods, but the buyer's value for the good (demand) is a random variable governed by a Markov Process whose structure is common knowledge. At the beginning of each period the unit's value is determined by "nature" and is privately revealed only to the buyer. The market termination rule is a binary random variable. We conduct 32 laboratory experiments designed to study intertemporal pricing by human subjects in the Posted Offer Institution when demand follows a stochastic process. There are four series of experiments: 8 with simulated buyers, 8 with inexperienced subjects, 8 with once experienced subjects, and 8 with twice experienced subjects.     

Innovation,growth and financial markets

We review some of the literature at the intersection of innovation, financial markets, and economic growth. We explore two key questions: (i) How financial markets interact with innovation; (ii) what type of quality transformations are brought about by innovation. A special emphasis is given to questions that stem from the 2008 economic and financial crisis, and to subjects further developed in the articles collected in this issue.     

Incomplete markets, continuum of states and default

Summary. We show that when bankruptcy, subject to penalties, is allowed, it is possible to prove the existence of equilibrium in a model with a continuum of states without imposing any assumptions on ex-post endowments.Received: November 20, 1995; revised version: September 16, 1996This revised version was published online in February 2005 with corrections to the cover date.     

Rural development and financial markets in Romania

In the transition from a centrally planned to a market-oriented economy, such as in Romania, the domestic financial market plays two important roles. First, the financial market itself must be fundamentally restructured. Second, its efficient functioning is a crucial precondition for economic transformation. In transition economies, however, financial market institutions tend to concentrate their services on urban or larger rural enterprises. So far, small rural enterprises, even those with profitable investment plans, often do not have access to the financial market. This paper briefly characterizes the key issues of agricultural production units and their institutional environment and analyzes the depth and the efficiency of rural finance and its effect on Romania's rural economic transformation. It concludes with policy and institutional recommendations to strengthen rural finance.     

Computable general equilibrium with financial markets

Summary. There are a wide variety of theoretical general equilibrium models with incomplete security markets. In this paper we give a general recipe for using homotopy algorithm to compute equilibria in these models. In many models, taxes, transaction-costs or other market frictions introduce the additional difficulty that equilibrium prices or choices (but not equilibrium allocations) may be undetermined. In order to demonstrate how these difficulties can be dealt with, we develop a globally convergent algorithm to compute equilibria in a model with cash-in-advance constraints, several goods and incomplete financial markets. Furthermore we describe how to implement the algorithm using a publicly available suite of subroutines for homotopy-pathfollowing. Received: October 1, 1999; revised version: December 16, 2000     

Modelling price pressure in financial markets

We present experimental evidence that, unlike traditional assumptions in economic theory, security prices do not respond to pressure from their own excess demand. Instead, prices respond to excess demand of all securities, despite the absence of a direct link between markets. We propose a model of price pressure that explains these findings. In our model, agents set order prices that reflect the marginal valuation of desired future holdings, called “aspiration levels.”In the short run, as agents encounter difficulties executing their orders, they scale back their aspiration levels. Marginal valuations, order prices, and hence, transaction prices change correspondingly. The resulting price adjustment process coincides with the Global Newton Method. The assumptions of the model as well as its empirical implications are fully borne out by the data. Our model thus provides an economic foundation for why markets appear to search for equilibrium according to Newton’s procedure.     

Credit layering in informal financial markets

Informal lenders with access to markets or capital often find it attractive to delegate loan provision to downstream lenders who have an information or enforcement advantage in dealing with particular borrowers. In this paper we examine the conditions under which such an arrangement is preferred by two informal lenders, a landlord and a merchant, who compete in loan provision to tenant farmers differentiated by wealth. We show that credit layering is preferred only when tenants are sufficiently poor. In this case, the trader lends to tenant farmers via a contract with their landlord. Otherwise, only the trader lends. As a consequence, a pattern of borrowing emerges in which relatively wealthy tenants borrow from merchants while poor tenants borrow mainly from their landlords. Interlinkage between land and credit thus arises only for a subset of tenants and purely as a consequence of credit layering. This pattern is shown to be supported empirically.     

How financial markets process money information: A re-examination of evidence using band spectrum regression

This article re-examines the response of financial markets to money supply announcements. It is argued that the previous research in the area may be suffering from an estimation bias. The potential for estimation bias stems from the questionable practice of assuming the same regression model for all frequency bands. A decomposition of the data into low-frequency and high-frequency components raises the possibility that both expected liquidity and expected inflation effects are in operation simultaneously though they affect different expectation horizons. The results also show that the distinct weight of these separate effects depends essentially on the credibility of the Fed in adhering to announced monetary targets and the state of inflationary fears.     

论我国资本市场的金融抑制和金融深化

自上世纪90年代开始,我国资本市场的发展已形成了初步的规模,但到目前为止依然存在着结构不合理,政策性因素明显的问题。资本市场的发展是分化金融风险的需要,是国有企业改革的需要,是国家宏观调控和产业结构升级的需要。但在发展中必须把握系统原则、渐进原则、开放原则和创新原则。     

Imperfect competition in financial markets and capital structure

We consider a model of corporate finance with imperfectly competitive financial intermediaries. Firms can finance projects either via debt or via equity. Because of asymmetric information about firms’ growth opportunities, equity financing involves a dilution cost. Nevertheless, equity emerges in equilibrium whenever financial intermediaries have sufficient market power. In the latter case, best firms issue debt while the less profitable firms are equity-financed. We also show that strategic interaction between oligopolistic intermediaries results in multiple equilibria. If one intermediary chooses to buy more debt, the price of debt decreases, so the best equity-issuing firms switch from equity to debt financing. This in turn decreases average quality of equity-financed pool, so other intermediaries also shift towards more debt.     

Asymmetric correlations in gold and other financial markets

In this article, we implement a recently developed statistical method to test asymmetries in cross-asset correlations, focusing in particular on the gold market. Our empirical results provide evidence that gold exhibits asymmetric correlations with stocks and the U.S. dollar, but not with bonds. Furthermore, splitting the sample into three characteristic periods, we find that exceedance correlations exhibit substantial time variation even in similar market tensions for same pairs of assets. Our findings imply that investors and fund managers should take into account the asymmetric dependence structure, which depends on the upside or downside of the market.