Shifting patterns of oil palm driven deforestation in Indonesia and implications for zero-deforestation commitments

Oil palm plantations in Indonesia have been linked to substantial deforestation in the 1990s and 2000s, though recent studies suggest that new plantations are increasingly developed on non-forest land. Without nationwide data to establish recent baseline trends, the impact of commitments to eliminate deforestation from palm oil supply chains could therefore be overestimated. We examine the area and proportion of plantations replacing forests across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua up to 2015, and map biophysically suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. We created new maps of oil palm plantations for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, and examined land cover replaced in each period. Nationwide, oil palm plantation expansion occurred at an average rate of 450,000 ha yr⁻¹, and resulted in an average of 117,000 ha yr⁻¹ of deforestation, during 1995–2015. Our analysis of the most recent five-year period (2010–2015) shows that the rate of deforestation due to new plantations has remained relatively stable since 2005, despite large increases in the extent of plantations. As a result, the proportion of plantations replacing forests decreased from 54% during 1995–2000, to 18% during 2010–2015. In addition, we estimate there are 30.2 million hectares of non-forest land nationwide which meet biophysical suitability criteria for oil palm cultivation. Our findings suggest that recent zero-deforestation commitments may not have a large impact on deforestation in Sumatra, where plantations have increasingly expanded onto non-forest land over the past twenty years, and which hosts large potentially suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. On the other hand, these pledges could have more influence in Kalimantan, where oil palm driven deforestation increased over our study period, and in Papua, a new frontier of expansion with substantial remaining forest cover.     

Building an effective coalition to improve forest policy: Lessons from the coastal Tripa peat swamp rainforest,Sumatra, Indonesia

In recent history, Indonesian forest policies have been dominated by deforestation in the name of economic progress. Many actors have expressed concerns about this trend and have tried to reverse it in favour of a more sustainable pathway. From 2004–2017, non-governmental environmental organisations fought for the case of the coastal Tripa peat swamp rainforest in the province of Aceh, Sumatra. Unique in Indonesian history, they managed halting and reversing the deforestation of an area. Their sustained action led the Indonesia state to cancel an oil palm plantation permit, with the plantation managers and owners facing heavy fines and prison terms. Our research seeks to understand the enabling factors making this success story possible. We used the Advocacy Coalition Framework for its capacity to deal with a complicated policymaking ecosystem whose decisions takes years for implementation.Our analysis found four enabling conditions of success, which were the NGOs capacity to: 1) sustain action for over a decade and grasp four changing events (post-tsunami reconstruction, emerging connection between forests and climate change, governors’ change, and use of digital technologies); 2) learn from own past failures marked by the evolution of their policy core beliefs, from ‘conserving forest for biodiversity’ to ‘conserving forest for local livelihoods’, and then to ‘conserving forest to prevent climate change’. As a result, they could broaden their advocacy coalition, which grew to include diverse social actors from local to international levels, including the central state's REDD + Task Force; 3) take an advantage over economic power by acting strategically and timely when changes occurred; and 4) closely monitor and disseminate knowledge (fire events, deforestation trends and peat depth), supporting a simple causal deforestation model which allowed a high degree of policy-oriented learning, helping the coalition to change its behaviour and act strategically.To sum up, the overall trend of rainforest destruction for agricultural extension in Southeast Asia, particularly in Sumatra, Indonesia, can be reversed, at least at the local level. Cautious not to overgeneralise, the Tripa case indicates that NGOs could improve forest governance by engaging in the long term, acting strategically, and building a broad socio-ecological and rights-based coalition.     

Discouraging Rainforest Transformation: An Ex-ante Policy Impact Analysis

Despite extensive efforts made by national and international certification agencies, Indonesian smallholder farmers’ participation in palm oil certification schemes adoption remains low. A fundamental obstacle is the smallholder practice of rainforest transformation into oil palm plantation which is forbidden by the agencies. In this context, we investigate three policies that could lead to a reduction in rainforest deforestation by smallholders: price premium on certified palm oil; the provision of environmental information; contributor recognition. In order to evaluate the influence of the policies ex-ante, we conduct a social dilemma experiment involving rubber and oil palm smallholders in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The findings indicate that the price premium and provision of context-specific environmental information could reduce rainforest transformation. However, a statistically significant effect of contributor recognition was not found.     

“We'll turn your water into Coca‐Cola”: The atomizing practices of oil palm plantation development in Indonesia

This article discusses land control strategies and practices for development of large‐scale oil palm plantations in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. In oil palm and “land grab” literature, much attention is paid to potential contributions of free, prior, and informed consent procedures. However, this article demonstrates how “atomizing” practices obstruct such procedures. Some practices stand out: During a preparatory phase of plantation development, companies remain in the background and leave actual land acquisition to local authorities and villagers, thus obscuring their agenda for plantation development. Second, rather than negotiating land transfer in public meetings, companies use a combination of promises, bribes, and threats to gain support or to enforce acceptance. Third, companies gain support by “wedging” themselves into communities, exacerbating disparities within communities. Analysis of this atomized process of plantation development is crucial for a critical understanding of oil palm conflicts.     

Forest or oil palm plantation? Interpretation of local responses to the oil palm promises in Kalimantan,Indonesia

Global land use/land cover change is dominated by the expansion of cash crops plantations, replacing natural ecosystems including forests. International trade is an important factor in this process. Increasing demand on certain crops has triggered plantation expansion and deforestation, and influence local land use in other countries (land teleconnections). Oil palm expansion is one of the most prominent examples of land teleconnections. In Indonesia, oil palm plantations area increased from 1.1 million ha in 1990 to 11.2 million ha in 2015. According to the Indonesian Law on Plantation, the indigenous people's decisions play important roles in land use decisions. This paper investigates what were the factors (drivers) determining the individual-level responses to the oil palm promises in West Kalimantan. These questions are not only important for the future of Kalimantan’s rainforest but will also enrich deforestation and conservation-development discourses. We selected 49 respondents for interviews and focus groups such that people who opposed and people who supported the conversion were both well represented. Much attention was paid to arrive at a balanced set of operational variables, such as the economic resilience, agency and embeddedness of actors and the degree to which actors had appreciated and believed the oil palm promise. Data were analyzed through the QCA method. The outcomes show a perfect association of appreciation of the oil palm promises, belief in them and the decision to support the oil palm. This was not strongly associated with low economic resilience however; economically less resilient respondents could reject the oil palm conversion, while economically resilient respondents could support it. In other words, the data do not point to a poverty/deforestation nexus. Rather, the data suggest the existence of an ‘embeddedness / rejection nexus’; people that were well-connected to community, traditions and nature held long-term motivations and rejected the oil palm promise, and vice versa. More attention to this phenomenon will help bridge conservation-development objectives in Kalimantan.     

Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia

This study compiles and analyses national-level data on land use change (LUC) and its causes in Indonesia and Malaysia over the past 30 years. The study also explores the role that palm oil has played in past LUC and that projected growth in palm oil production may play in LUC until 2020 and suggests strategies to minimize negative effects. Data collection for the study revealed that the quality and quantity of data on LUC on a national scale over time are low. Despite these uncertainties, the overview of past LUC indicates that large changes in land use have occurred in Indonesia and Malaysia. In Indonesia, LUC can primarily be characterized by forest cover loss on 40 million ha (Mha) of land, a 30% reduction in forest land. Deforestation in Malaysia has been smaller in both absolute and relative terms, with a forest cover loss of nearly 5 Mha (20% reduction in forest land). Other large changes in Malaysia occurred in permanent cropland (excluding oil palm), which has decreased rapidly since the early 1990s, and in land under oil palm cultivation, which experienced a sharp increase. Projections of additional land demand for palm oil production in 2020 range from 1 to 28 Mha in Indonesia. The demand can be met to a large extent by degraded land if no further deforestation is assumed. In Malaysia, expansion projections range from 0.06 to 5 Mha, but only the lowest projection of oil palm expansion is feasible when only degraded land may be used. The role of palm oil production in future LUC depends on the size of the projected expansion as well as agricultural management factors such as implementation of best management practices, earlier replanting with higher yielding plants, and establishment of new plantations on degraded land. The current use of degraded land needs to be investigated in order to reduce possible indirect LUC, land tenure conflicts, or other social impacts. In addition to minimizing direct and indirect LUC by the palm oil sector, measures that reduce deforestation triggered by other causes must also be implemented. A key element for doing so is better planning and governance of land use, which entails more appropriate demarcation of forest land and protection of land that still has forest cover, improved monitoring of land use, and more research to uncover the complexities and dynamics of the causes and drivers of LUC.     

Sugar‐Cane and Oil Palm Expansion in Guatemala and its Consequences for the Regional Economy

Corporate‐owned sugar‐cane and oil palm plantations in Guatemala are expanding at the expense of smallholder agriculture. Land control grabs are not only having consequences for local communities and ecosystems, but also for regional economies. The present study compares the value chains of smallholder products with those of sugar and palm oil. Primary data were collected from agricultural producers and their backward and forward sectors in the agricultural regions where the plantations are most prominent. The results show that on a regional level, sugar and palm oil generate fewer jobs in comparison to the products of small‐scale agriculture, which have important forward linkages to small and medium trading and processing sectors. In addition, the wealth created by small‐scale farming remains within the regions, whereas profits from the sugar and palm oil industries are being transferred out of them. Therefore, to achieve inclusive regional development, smallholder agriculture should be strengthened rather than promoting monoculture expansion.     

Differential livelihood impacts of oil palm expansion in Indonesia

In this article, the impacts of oil palm adoption on livelihoods of smallholder farm households are analyzed. The study builds on survey data from Sumatra, Indonesia. Treatment‐effects and endogenous switching regression models suggest that smallholder households benefit from oil palm adoption on average. Part of the benefit stems from the fact that oil palm requires less labor than rubber, the main alternative crop. This allows oil palm adopters to allocate more labor to off‐farm activities and/or to expand their farmland. For households with a low land‐to‐labor ratio, rubber is typically a more lucrative crop than oil palm. Depending on various social and institutional factors, households’ access to land, labor, and capital varies, contributing to impact heterogeneity. Welfare gains associated with oil palm are more pronounced among households that have formal land titles and access to additional land to expand their farm size during the process of adoption.     

Missing the forest for the data? Conflicting valuations of the forest and cultivable lands

In reaction to Greenpeace campaigns denouncing the impact of oil palm plantations in Southeast Asia, Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) – a major actor in the palm oil sector – adopted a zero-deforestation policy. The implementation of this policy raised a simple, albeit tricky, question: what is a forest? In response, Greenpeace, GAR and a consultancy firm developed a methodology for forest classification called the High Carbon Stock (HCS) Approach. Employing a vegetation classification based primarily on a threshold of carbon sequestration, the method identifies which forested zones to protect from conversion to agriculture. While currently gaining resonance in the realm of sustainability standards, its implementation in Indonesia and Liberia encountered resistance and criticism by rural dwellers and social NGOs. How did HCS advocates integrate local peoples’ concerns, interests and claims to compose commonality? By analysing the HCS methodology's content, implementation and progressive adaptation, this article shows how HCS advocates favoured a specific mode of composition: one that fits a liberal grammar and that has specific implications on the valuation of forest and cultivable lands. The HCS approach is thus more than a data collection tool; it encapsulates and reinforces a particular vision of the environment and how people should relate to it.     

A historical analysis of the drivers of loss and degradation of Indonesia’s mangroves

Mangroves have been systematically exploited in Indonesia since 1800, especially for the development of brackish water shrimp aquaculture (called ‘tambak’) and for timber harvesting. By the end of the 1960s, Indonesia is estimated to have lost more than 200,000 ha of its mangroves mostly in Java and Sumatra. The rate of mangrove loss started to dramatically increase in the 1970 when exploitation shifted to new areas outside Java, particularly in Kalimantan and Sulawesi, encouraged by government policies to boost timber production, followed by policies to expand tambak in 1980s and large scale tambak development triggered by increased shrimp price during Asian financial crisis in 1997. The result has been the loss of nearly 800,000 ha of mangroves in only 30 years, mostly now in the form of low productivity or abandoned tambaks. In recent years, timber harvesting activities in Indonesia's mangroves appear to have become more sustainable. Our analysis suggests that aquaculture will continue as the main driver of change in mangrove ecosystems in Indonesia followed by palm oil plantation. Failure to deal with the current low productivity of shrimp aquaculture in many parts of Indonesia will force shrimp producers to clear an estimated 600,000 ha more mangroves to make way for shrimp farms over the next two decades. However, with improvements in brackish water aquaculture productivity, halting palm oil concession to utilise mangroves, along with maintaining other mangrove use pressures at moderate levels, the net loss of mangroves in the next two decades could be reduced to around 23,000 ha.     

Unpacking Indonesia’s independent oil palm smallholders: An actor-disaggregated approach to identifying environmental and social performance challenges

Processes of globalization have generated new opportunities for smallholders to participate in profitable global agro-commodity markets. This participation however is increasingly being shaped by differentiated capabilities to comply with emerging public and private quality and safety standards. The dynamics within Indonesia’s oil palm sector illustrate well the types of competitive challenges smallholders face in their integration into global agro-commodity chains. Because of public concern over the poor social and environmental performance of the sector, many governments, companies and consumers are attempting to clean up the value chain through self-regulatory commitments, certification and public regulation. As a result, many of Indonesia’s oil palm smallholders face compliance barriers due to informality and poor production practices, and threaten to become alienated from formal markets, which could in turn lead to a bifurcation of the oil palm sector. Recognizing that many oil palm smallholders lack compliance capacity, myriad public and private actors have begun designing initiatives to address compliance barriers and enhance smallholder competitiveness. However, failure to properly account for the heterogeneity of the smallholder oil palm sector will undermine the effectiveness and scalability of such initiatives. By developing a typology of independent smallholder oil palm farmers in Rokan Hulu district, Riau province, this article reveals the wide diversity of actors that compose Indonesia’s smallholder oil palm economy, the types of compliance barriers they face and the sustainable development challenges they pose. In doing so, this article illustrates how global agro-commodity chains can drive agrarian differentiation and offer new insights into the complex dynamics of agricultural frontier expansion.     

Bioelectricity in Malaysia: economic feasibility,environmental and deforestation implications

We investigate the economic feasibility of bioelectricity production from biomass in Malaysia and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storage, agricultural prices, agricultural employment and deforestation. For this purpose, we develop a partial equilibrium model that projects agricultural prices, production, imports, exports, domestic consumption and land use in 5‐year increments between 2015 and 2065. Our results show that by 2030 biomass‐generated electricity can supply 36.5 per cent of the electricity generated in Malaysia, 16 times more than the 2016 electricity supply from biomass. Increased bioelectricity production from biomass will significantly reduce GHG emissions and will help Malaysia meet its commitment in the Paris Agreement to mitigate GHG emission by 45 per cent before 2030. Our modelling shows that biomass‐generated electricity creates a derived demand for waste biomass that expands the area of oil palm plantations. The expansion lowers agricultural prices, boosts agricultural employment and leads to some deforestation as landowners clear rainforest to plant oil palm trees. Nonetheless, the deforestation does not increase GHG emissions since GHG gains from bioelectricity significantly exceed GHG losses from deforestation.     

Quantifying and understanding land cover changes by large and small oil palm expansion regimes in the Peruvian Amazon

With rapid increases in global food demand and production, oil palm expansion constitutes a major emerging challenge for forest conservation in Amazonia and other tropical forest regions. This threat is evident in the Peruvian Amazon, where local and national incentives for oil palm cultivation along with growing large-scale investments translate into accelerated oil palm expansion. Environmental sustainability of oil palm cultivation in the Peruvian Amazon is contingent on policy incentives for expansion onto already-cleared lands instead of biodiverse, high carbon primary rainforests. Previous research indicates that while industrial plantations use less land area than local smallholders, companies have a higher tendency to expand into primary rainforests. However, the motivations behind these differing expansion scenarios remain unclear. In this study we combine data from optical and radar satellite sensors with training information, field discussions, and review of public documents to examine the policy incentives and spatial patterns associated with oil palm expansion by smallholders and industries in one of Peru’s most rapidly changing Amazonian landscapes: the Ucayali region of the city of Pucallpa. Based on our satellite-based land cover change analysis, we found that between 2010 and 2016, smallholders utilized 21,070 ha more land area for oil palm than industries but industrial expansion occurred predominantly in old growth forests (70%) in contrast to degraded lands for smallholders (56%). Our analysis of national policies related to oil palm expansion reveal policy loopholes associated with Peru’s “best land use” classification system that allow for standing forests to undergo large-scale agricultural development with little government oversight. We conclude that both sectors will need careful, real-time monitoring and government engagement to reduce old-growth forest loss and develop successful strategies for mitigating future environmental impacts of oil palm expansion.     

Land allocation to meet sectoral goals in Indonesia—An analysis of policy coherence

Land is a scarce resource affecting the implementation of many sectoral policies. In Indonesia, the expansion of palm oil plantations has led to non-sustainable land use practices in past years, particularly deforestation. More recently, the government has set ambitious targets for the adoption of biodiesel which will require expansion of oil palm plantations, thus putting further pressure on land. Meanwhile, the need to guarantee food supply, forest conservation and climate change mitigation also imply challenges when it comes to land allocation and use. This paper examines the role that land plays in the implementation of sectoral policies in Indonesia, exploring the availability of land to satisfy the multiple goals defined in national policies. We explore land competition resulting from allocations made in official policy documents starting with biofuel policy. The analysis of policy goals and coherence when it comes to land allocation is made in relation to agriculture, climate and forestry policies. We conclude that adjustments need to be made in the policies to avoid overlappings and misinterpretations when it comes to land allocation. The area made available for meeting each sectoral policy goal when taking into account cross sectoral interactions is: 14.2 Mha for agriculture, 43 Mha for climate mitigation measures, 9.2 Mha for forestry, and 20.9 Mha for biofuels. A more uniform land classification and development of a common reference database will increase transparency on land allocation and use, and help to monitor land use change, ultimately supporting the achievement of multiple national goals.     

Land use changes to cash crop plantations: crop types,multilevel determinants and policy implications

Cash crop plantation has recently become an expanding global phenomenon. Characterizing the dynamics of cash crop plantations and the corresponding determinants should provide critical references for land use policy. Using aerial photos and geographic information system, this paper investigated the trends of four types of cash crops (tea, fruit, mulberry and nursery) and their relations to other land use changes within Hangzhou region in subtropical China. Results showed that the total cash crop cultivated surface increased by 541.3 ha from 2004 to 2014. Most of the new tea and fruit plantations were established in places previously used as forest and woodland. Mulberry and nursery mainly expanded by replacing paddy, woodland and forest. By combining household survey, geospatial techniques and multilevel regression, multilevel determinants of cash cropping probability and cash crop expansion were quantified. At the parcel level, tea and fruit plantations inclined to occur on hilly land with gentle slope. Mulberry and nursery plantations were likely to be observed in flat areas with low elevation. Parcels covered by high quality soils and with convenient communications experienced greater cash cropping probability. At the household level, households constituted of female and old-aged labor or with low agricultural labor intensity demonstrated high probability of tea and mulberry plantations. Conversely, households constituted of middle-aged labor or with high agricultural labor intensity tended to grow more fruit and nursery. Besides, wealthier households were prone to establish fruit and nursery plantations but were reluctant to involve in tea and mulberry cropping. At the village level, population density was a significant determinant of cash cropping probability, but was an insignificant determinant of cash crop expansion. Greater occurrence of cash cropping was observed in villages with higher proportion of migrant labor and leasing land. Distance to county road and distance to provincial road were identified as negative determinants. Policy was evidenced to be of significant influence on cash cropping probability and cash crop expansion. We argue that a balance should be achieved between cash cropping promotion and natural resources protection in formulating the local land use policy.     

Evaluation of external market effects and government intervention in Malaysia's agricultural sector: A computable general equilibrium framework

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of changes in the external trade environment and domestic economic policies on the agricultural development of Malaysia. The scope of this research also includes providing further insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) methodology for agricultural policy analysis. The first analysis focuses on the export agriculture sector which encompasses Malaysia's two primary agricultural commodities, rubber and palm oil. Heavily dependent on exports of rubber in the 1950s and 1960s, Malaysia has since built a more diversified economy with strong emphasis on manufacturing. Export agriculture, however, is still an important component of the national economy. The second objective examines the influence of domestic policy on agricultural development. The simulation results demonstrate the growing resiliency of the Malaysian economy to external shocks. Also, they point to the domestic economy's ability to buffer internal Policy-induced distortions.     

基于DNDC的茶园土壤碳素空间分异及其影响因素——以福建省安溪县为例

[目的]通过探究福建省安溪县茶园土壤碳素储量,揭示各碳素指标的空间分异特征及其关键影响因子,有助于为减少茶园温室气体排放和建设生态茶园提供决策支撑。[方法]文章运用反硝化分解（denitrification decomposition, DNDC）模型和空间统计分析方法对茶园土壤碳素进行模拟和研究。[结果]（1）经过参数率定的DNDC模型对茶园土壤碳素动态循环的模拟具有较好的适用性;（2）安溪茶园土壤有机碳含量丰富,土壤肥力较好。凋落物输入碳是茶园土壤碳素输入的主要来源,平均输入量为505.52 kg/hm2,而通过呼吸作用转化为CO2排放是茶园土壤碳素输出的重要途径,平均CO2排放量为883.78 kg/hm2;(3)茶园SOC10～20cm量、凋落物输入碳量、CH4排放量、CO2排放量均呈现空间聚集分布特征,主要分布在安溪县西部的低山与中低山地区;（4）初始土壤属性中黏粒含量和土壤有机碳含量是影响安溪县茶园土壤碳素空间分异的关键因子,其中土壤黏粒含量对茶园土壤CO2排放量和CH4排放量的影响最强且负向作用效果明显。[结论]安溪县西部等低山和中低山区域土壤肥力较好,但亦应谨慎对待该区...     

Effects of industrial plantations on ecosystem services and livelihoods: Perspectives of rural communities in China

This paper addresses the current research void on local community views of changes in ecosystem services associated with rapid land use transformation in the context of plantation-based forestry. This interview-based study, conducted in southern China, aims at assessing the perspectives of local communities of: 1) the effects of Eucalyptus industrial plantations on selected ecosystem services and on local development; and 2) opportunities for future community livelihood development, based on the relations with the government and with forest industry operating locally. We analysed data from semi-structured interviews with 70 villagers for their views on changes in ecosystem services after the establishment of plantations, and their future expectations on the local livelihood development. Most interviewees mentioned some negative development on environmental quality after the establishment of the industrial plantations, especially on soil and water. Furthermore, the reduced productivity of cropland surrounding industrial plantations, coupled with other financial drivers, induced several villagers to switch from agricultural crops to household plantations. In the absence of destructive typhoons, household plantations can provide owners more free time, higher income, while industrial plantations provided some employment opportunities. Interviewees’ expectations for the future included receiving financial support and capacity building for household plantations and crops, support to local roads and schools, and higher employment opportunities. Some interviewees suggested that solutions should be implemented for improving degraded water quality, while others suggested reducing forestry operations. Even though being highly context-specific, our findings open up the discussion about the further community development opportunities in the context of plantation forestry. In particular, the potential of value sharing mechanisms between the private sector and the local communities should be further studied.     

Opposing interests in the legalization of non-procedural forest conversion to oil palm in Central Kalimantan,Indonesia

Demand for forestland for non-forest uses, mostly oil palm, has increased dramatically in the past few years and has become a chief driver of deforestation in Central Kalimantan. In this paper, we aim to shed light on how multiple levels of government create a facilitating environment for oil palm expansion. In our research, we employed three different methods: content analysis of key policy documents, participant observations, and expert interviews. We found that the technical complexities of formal procedures for the conversion of forest to oil palm are relatively easy to bypass. Contradicting laws and regulations have created a situation where the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF) and local governments have relatively equal legal mandates and authority over land-use and allocation. This is further complicated by the ambiguity of the decentralization policy. Enabled by the spatial planning law and the decentralization laws, local governments have aggressively issued plantation licenses for forest areas without the formal release of the forest from the Ministry of Forestry. The issuance of plantation permits has also been legitimized by other policies within central government, which have made oil palm a national priority.