对我国外汇贷款影响因素的实证研究

本文构造ARDL模型,对人民币贷款利率、人民币汇率、外汇贷款利率、进出口额等外汇贷款的影响因素进行实证研究,发现:人民币贷款利率对我国外汇贷款的影响主要是短期的;人民币汇率对外汇贷款当期影响不显著,长期来看,人民币升值会引起外汇贷款增长;二者的影响时滞为0-4个月.长期来看,进出口贸易额这一反映实体经济对外贸易活动的变量才是影响我国外汇贷款增长的最主要因素,本外币利差、人民币升值预期等投机因素在其次.     

对我国外汇贷款变化因素的实证研究

2007年下半年以来,我国金融机构外汇贷款增长较快,同比增速大幅飙升。本文构造ARDL模型,对人民币贷款利率、人民币汇率、外汇贷款利率、进出口额等外汇贷款的影响因素进行实证研究,研究发现：人民币贷款利率对我国外汇贷款的影响主要是短期的;人民币汇率对外汇贷款当期影响不显著,长期来看,人民币升值会引起外汇贷款增长;二者的影响时滞为0-4个月。长期来看,进出口贸易额这一反映实体经济对外贸易活动的变量才是影响我国外汇贷款增长的最主要因素,本外币利差、人民币升值预期等投机因素在其次。     

对我国外汇贷款影响因素的实证研究

本文构造ARDL模型,对人民币贷款利率、人民币汇率、外汇贷款利率、进出口额等外汇贷款的影响因素进行实证研究,发现:人民币贷款利率对我国外汇贷款的影响主要是短期的;人民币汇率对外汇贷款当期影响不显著,长期来看,人民币升值会引起外汇贷款增长;二者的影响时滞为0-4个月。长期来看,进出口贸易额这一反映实体经济对外贸易活动的变量才是影响我国外汇贷款增长的最主要因素,本外币利差、人民币升值预期等投机因素在其次。     

汇率波动下的跨境资金流动

随着人民币汇率形成机制改革和人民币国际化的深入推进,人民币汇率走势进入一个新时期,在岸市场汇率、香港离岸市场汇率、境内外人民币汇率预期等汇率因素对跨境资金流动的影响愈发凸显。在人民币汇率双向波动的情况下,企业持汇意愿增强,购付汇节奏加快;偿还国内外汇贷款购汇、外商投资企业利润汇出等也显著增长,融资套利模式不断推陈出新。7     

泰州市外汇贷款激增原因何在

2009年3月份以来,泰州市外汇贷款出现了持续激增势头,其增长势头之猛为历史罕见。国家外汇管理局泰州市中心支局调查发现,新增外汇贷款除部分流向实体经济领域外,五成流向以获取本外币利差和预期人民币将大幅升值的外汇理财产品和保值套利交易,并由此引发了一些问题。     

贷款替代及其成因分析

企业在向银行申请贷款时,不是直接申请人民币贷款,而是先申请外汇贷款;在取得外汇贷款后,不是使用外汇资金,而是将外汇贷款结汇给银行,取得人民币资金加以使用,这种现象称为贷款替代。贷款替代发生的主要原因有:本外币贷款利率存在差异、国内执行紧缩货币政策与本币具有升值预期。贷款替代在降低企业融资成本与取得汇兑收益的同时,也会给一国的宏观经济造成一定的负面影响。     

近年来我国贷款替代及其成因分析

企业在向银行申请货款时,不是直接申请人民币贷款,而是先申请外汇贷款;在取得外汇贷款后, 不是使用外汇资金,而是将外汇贷款结汇给银行,取得人民币资金加以使用,这种现象称为贷款替代。贷款替代发生的主要原因有:本外币贷款利率存在差异、国内执行紧缩货币政策与本币具有升值预期。贷款替代在降低企业融资成本与取得汇兑收益的同时,也会给一国的宏观经济造成一定的负面影响。     

人民币汇率执行效果分析和本外币调控政策研究

本文提出了缓解人民币汇率升值压力有效办法是依靠本外币政策的“组合拳”即加强央银对冲操作手段改变外汇供求对人民币汇率的影响效果,从进出口外汇供求政策上调控人民币汇率波动,从改革强制结售汇制入手实现汇率对市场配置资源的功能,从培育外汇市场主体和增强市场功能来发挥人民币汇率的杠杆作用,完善有管理的浮动汇率制是货币政策传导机制的重要基础等。     

管中窥豹：探“失控”中的“平衡”

2010年，江苏省外汇贷款继续保持激增势头。调查发现，新增外汇贷款流向虽然是实体经济领域，但其并非全部来自对外贸易的融资性需求，有较大一部分来自本外币之间套利行为，出现爆炸式增长。     

转变理念 搞好新形势下外汇管理工作

一、外汇管理工作要进一步转变理念 在前不久召开的人民银行工作会议暨全国外汇管理工作会议上，周小川行长就人民币汇率形成机制改革有关问题作了重要讲话，胡晓炼局长作了外汇管理工作报告。我们一定要结合实际，深入学习总行和总局领导讲话精神，高度关注人民币汇率形成机制改革问题。一方面要理解改革内容、改革过程和改革决策的复杂性，同时要关注汇率改革的未来，正确认识面临的国际收支平衡等一系列挑战。周小川行长指出，在本外币联系越来越紧密的情况下，干部只熟悉本币，不熟悉外币，慢慢就会落伍。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Dutch accounting in Japan 1609-1850: isolation or observation?

The trading station or factory maintained by the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was Japan's sole window on the Western world during most of the Tokugawa period (1600-1868). While many aspects of the factory's role in Dutch/Japanese cultural exchange have been researched little is known in the West of the accounting at the factory. This paper considers the possibility that double-entry bookkeeping employed by the Dutch may have been diffused to the Japanese. The available evidence is synthesized after considering the accounting system in the Dutch factory.