Trends,economic policies and systemic changes in the three Baltic states

The almost total collapse of the old trade relationships with the other republics of the former Soviet Union has meant serious problems for the breakaway Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. What progress have these countries been able to make so far on their way towards a market economy? Are the problems likely to get worse before they get better?     

Commercial policy and intra-industry trade

This paper constructs a model of intra-industry trade within a multi-product industry whose output range is limited to that obtainable from a particular type of capital. Intra-industry trade is a natural outcome in this structure, without requiring increasing returns to scale or imperfectly competitive markets, and with its pattern determined along traditional (relative factor abundance) lines. The volume of this trade will vary inversely with the level of trade restrictions, as observed empirically. Other policies are then considered for their influence on the range, rather than the level, of domestic production, since the former is the more likely policy objective under these circumstances.     

South Asia: Does Preferential Trade Liberalisation Make Sense?

This paper systematically analyses the issue of trade liberalisation in the South Asia region and offers a qualitative assessment of alternative approaches. I compare two broad approaches to trade liberalisation: non‐discriminatory and preferential. The former approach can be pursued on a unilateral basis by each country in the region, on a concerted basis by the countries in the region, or multilateral basis under the auspices of the WTO. The latter approach can take the form of criss‐crossing bilateral free trade areas between various countries in the region or a region‐wide free trade area. The view I take in the paper is that the move towards preferential trading is a mistake, at least from the viewpoint of India. India continues to have very high trade barriers so that the scope for trade diversion and the losses accompanying it are likely to be considerable. Business lobbies being relatively powerful in most of the countries in the region, they are likely to exploit the rules of origin and sectoral exceptions in these arrangements in ways that will maximise trade diversion and minimise trade creation. Inasmuch as the rules of origin give bureaucrats power, employment and opportunities to share in the rents created by tariff preferences, they too will become active parties to the diversionary tactics of business lobbies. Therefore, the member countries are better advised to proceed along non‐discriminatory lines in achieving further liberalisation.     

Trade Shows and Fairs

Abstract

This article describes importance and value of trade shows/fairs to firms as they engage in the process of internationalization. Primary discussion examines the unique impact of trade fairs as a promotional medium for organizations to consider as they determine their marketing strategy. Careful planning along with an understanding of the role of trade fairs within the promotion mix can mean the difference between success or failure in the global marketplace.     

Overcoming informal barriers to trade: Immigrant educational attainment vs. network competence

Focusing on developed countries as the destination of both migrants and traded goods, we adopt a contingent perspective to examine the efficacy of immigrant resources in the promotion of international trade. We find that only immigrants with a low level of education facilitate trade when they originate from a developing source country (south→north trade), whereas only highly educated immigrants facilitate trade when they originate from a developed source country (north→north trade). This difference emerges from the immigrant’s role in helping overcome two distinct informal barriers to trade based on their different resource endowments in terms of network competence vs. educational attainment.     

Trade Performance of Export Processing Zones

Export processing zones (EPZs) have become widespread with the liberalisation of international trade and investment. They are key players in the deepening of the global value chain (GVC). However, little is known about their contribution to world trade due to a lack of information on their location and status. This paper sets out to improve knowledge in this area by analysing the trade performance of EPZ countries at macro‐level with a focus on EPZ externalities and distortive costs. We have built an original database of EPZs in which we define them as processing zones benefiting from import tariff incentives. We show that EPZs increase trade only by easing the negative impact of protection. As importers of components and raw materials, they raise the rest of the world's exports. This confirms the contribution of EPZs to the GVC. This result is robust to a change in the model specification, errors and bias due to data collection issues and sample composition.     

自由贸易是经济发展的必要选择吗？——基于历史视角的富国发展之路

通过分析当今几个最主要发达国家在它们各自发展阶段所采用的贸易保护方式的历史,来质疑当今发达国家鼓吹贸易自由化能有效促进发展中国家经济增长的观点,得出结论：发达国家的成功并不是建立在学术理论和经济政策上所倡导的贸易自由化,而是基于幼稚产业保护的技术性竞赛;发展是个复杂的过程,贸易自由化不应该在缺乏实证检验下被高度概括为适应所有经济体成功的条件;发达国家不应该限制发展中国家自由使用它们在发展阶段曾经使用过的贸易政策,而应该尊重它们的选择。     

基于语料库的外贸英文函电写作研究

运用系统功能语言学理论和语料库,对中企外贸英文函电和英语国家外贸函电进行对比研究,分析两者在语域上的异同,经研究发现两者均属于交互性劝诱文本,但前者在劝诱性方面逊色于后者。并探讨对于中国外贸企业的英文函电写作所带来的启示,以及如何采取相应的写作策略,以增强文本的概念功能、人际功能和语篇功能,以便更好地实现英文函电的跨文化交际功能。     

中国与欧盟和东盟的贸易特点及影响因素比较——基于引力模型的实证分析

本文首先比较了中国与两大区域经济集团——欧盟和东盟的贸易特点,然后通过引力模型分析了影响中国与欧盟和东盟贸易的因素,并就各个因素所带来影响的不同进行了对比。结果表明,中国与东盟贸易的GDP弹性较大,而中国与欧盟贸易的人均GDP弹性较大。本文认为,前者的原因在于中国与东盟贸易更具潜力,后者主要是因为中国与欧盟的贸易互补性更强。     

Don't stop with the one-stop shop: Foreign investment in a liberalizing third world

Developing countries around the world are liberalizing their trade and investment regimes. This paper, based on a multiyear, multicountry study, assesses the likely impact of these new trade and investment policies on foreign investment projects. It points to the divergence between rhetoric and reality that often characterizes the new investment policies and institutions. Indeed, the study suggests that, for many foreign investors, changes in trade policy are likely to be more significant than changes in investment policy. The paper provides recommendations to investors on how to take advantage of the new policies they are likely to encounter in developing countries. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

我国经常项目收支平衡与经济增长——基于BPCG模型的实证分析

20世纪90年代初以来,我国经常项目中商品贸易持续顺差,服务贸易和投资收益账户却连年逆差,这种结构不利于我国经济的持续稳定增长。本文应用国际收支约束下经济增长模型(BPCG)及其扩展形式,实证分析了1982-2005年间我国经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率、商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率与实际增长率之间的差异,结论为经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率比商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率要低0.5-1个百分点。     

Trade and income convergence: Sorting out the causality

This paper studies the linkage between international trade and income convergence across countries. Different theories offer conflicting predictions regarding how they might affect each other. In the existing empirical literature estimating the trade impact on income convergence, a long-lasting problem is the reverse causality from income convergence to trade. This paper provides a disaggregated bilateral trade data analysis to solve this problem. The results show that the reverse causality from income convergence to trade exists in differentiated product sectors, but not in homogeneous product sectors. Trade in homogeneous sectors reduces the income gaps among trade partners, but it is not significantly affected by their income difference. Therefore, the negative effect of trade in homogeneous sectors on the income gap is free from the reverse causality problem. It can be taken as a pure evidence of trade-induced income convergence. This result is robust to various econometric methods.     

出口贸易结构的形成机理:基于我国1980-2005年的经验研究

近年来国内学者对我国对外贸易的研究开始将注意力从贸易量转到贸易结构上,但大多数研究只是停留在贸易结构的存在上,而忽视了贸易结构的形成。本文运用格兰杰因果检验和回归分析等方法实证分析了出口贸易结构的形成机理,研究发现:外国直接投资、贸易开放程度、产业结构、汇率变动对我国出口贸易结构的形成有正向作用;研发与创新投入的增加集中表现在资本密集型产品出口比重的增加;我国出口贸易结构易造成对外贸易摩擦,但贸易摩擦并没反作用于贸易结构;对外直接投资对我国出口贸易结构仍不能产生作用。     

The volatility of world trade in the 21st century: Whose fault is it anyway?

This paper explores the drivers of the volatility of international trade. It decomposes trade growth into six components that have gained attention in the literature and studies their contribution to overall volatility. It yields three main findings. First, trade volatility in the 1990–2015 period is mostly explained by a common factor, changes in the gravity‐related characteristics of a country's trading partners and country‐specific factors. Product composition and the identity of trading partners appear to be less important in explaining volatility. Second, the pre‐2009 decline in volatility and the post‐2009 increase in volatility appear to be driven by different factors. The former is mostly explained by a decline in the variance of country‐specific factors; the latter appears to be driven by an increase in the volatility of common factors. Third, diversification is a likely force behind the steady decline in the volatility stemming from country‐specific factors, especially in developing countries.     

A 3 × 3 model of customs unions

In this paper we develop a three-country-three-good model of customs unions. The main result is that a sufficient condition for two countries to benefit from forming a customs union is that they are similar in the sense that their mutual trade is small. This result is obtained by analyzing the terms of trade effects rather than the more traditional emphasis on trade creation-trade diversion effects.     

Options in foreign economic relations for Central and Eastern Europe

Following the collapse of the CMEA, the foreign trade of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe declined drastically with dire consequences for output, incomes and employment in these countries. What options do the former CMEA members have for revitalizing their foreign trade? What impediments will have to be surmounted in each case?     

How do European trade promotion organisations manage their stakeholders?

Trade Promotion Organisations (TPOs) exert significant influence on the internationalisation potential of domestic firms and improving the indigenous country’s trade balance. However, TPOs’ strategies to uphold their impact as to the relationship vis-à-vis their stakeholders are largely unknown. This is an important gap in the literature considering that effective stakeholder management can enhance TPOs’ performance and the value they develop for three primary stakeholder groups, namely home country government, domestic firms and foreign trade offices. In this study, we employ the stakeholder theory and draw upon in-depth case studies of 14 European TPOs to address this gap. We advance six related propositions on how funding sourcing, services to domestic firms and functions of foreign trade offices can be effectively associated with TPOs’ relationship management towards these stakeholder groups. The contribution of the study lies on the application of stakeholder theory in trade promotion and the derivation of related sets of strategies.     

基于引力模型的中俄双边贸易流量与潜力研究

后金融危机时期,中俄双方政治互信升级,两国建立了更为密切、全面的战略协作伙伴关系。文章基于较长时间跨度(1989～2010年)中俄双边贸易相关数据构建贸易引力扩展模型,研究两国贸易流量的影响因素以及发展潜力问题,并提出促进双边贸易发展的政策建议:进一步深化区域合作机制,完善贸易制度安排;强调各领域的务实合作;积极构建中俄自由贸易区;加强双边经贸结构调整,培育新兴贸易形态。     

基于企业性质的贸易顺差与贸易摩擦分析

随着我国贸易顺差的不断上升和贸易摩擦案件的频发,贸易顺差和贸易摩擦的问题引起了广泛的关注。通过理论分析和实证分析的方法,本文从企业性质的角度研究了我国贸易顺差和贸易摩擦的形成原因及其相互关系,研究表明内需不足、人民币估值过低并不是我国贸易顺差形成的原因,而是大额贸易顺差所产生的结果;我国贸易顺差的形成是外商直接投资企业推动的国际分工体系深化的结果,与企业性质存在着直接的联系。     

欧盟商品市场一体化的影响因素研究:基于边界效应的视角

本文选用2000-2005年欧盟成员国之间以及欧盟成员国与外部主要贸易伙伴国之间的双边出口贸易额等数据,使用面板数据方法,基于边界效应的视角,分别探讨了欧盟25国和欧盟15国的商品市场一体化影响因素。结果表明:欧盟这样的区域贸易协定对其成员国具有正面影响。地理临近性和文化联系鼓励紧密的贸易伙伴,距离、税率和人口对双边贸易存在负面影响,这与以往的研究结果相同。非关税壁垒成为重要边界可部分解释欧盟25国的内部边界效应高于欧盟15国的研究结果。