Moral Hazard in Home Equity Conversion

Home equity conversion as presently constituted or proposed usually does not deal well with the problem of moral hazard. Once homeowners know that the risk of poor market performance of their homes is borne by investors, they have an incentive to neglect to take steps to maintain the homes values. They may thus create serious future losses for the investors. A calibrated model for assessing this moral-hazard risk is presented that is suitable for a number of home equity conversion forms: (1) reverse mortgages, (2) home equity insurance, (3) shared-appreciation mortgages, (4) housing partnerships, (5) shared-equity mortgages and (6) sale of remainder interest. Modifications of these forms involving real estate price indexes are proposed that might deal better with the problem of moral hazard.     

Reverse Mortgages and Borrower Maintenance Risk

This paper develops a theoretical model of the problem of maintenance risk in reverse mortgages (RMs) and home equity conversion instruments generally. By maintenance risk, we refer to the incentive homeowners will have to reduce maintenance expenditures as their equity in the house falls during the term of the RM. The underlying reason for this tendency is the limited liability feature of RMs, given that a borrower's obligation to the lender at. maturity is limited to the value of the house.
The results of the model show that lenders will respond to this problem either by limiting the amount of RM loans to guarantee that maintenance risk is not a threat, or by charging an interest rate premium to cover the expected cost of default. Unfortunately, there do not exist data to test the importance of maintenance risk as a possible limitation on the extent of the RM market.     

Reverse Mortgages and Prepayment Risk

This paper presents a detailed assessment of the Connecticut Housing Finance Authority (CHFA) reverse annuity mortgage (RAM) program. Because of the size and payment history of the program, the analysis provides an empirical framework on which to develop and assess other home equity conversion (HEC) programs. The program offers insights into the economic impact of these programs and the factors affecting prepayment. The program issued 765 annuities over five years, and 240 of these loans have terminated payments. The annuity payments had a demonstrable financial impact on the elderly participants, with an 88% average annual income increase. Prepayment rates varied across borrower and loan characteristics. The rates were most sensitive to marital status and were heavily affected by the age of the borrower and the term of the loan. Although default risk exists, the evidence indicates a low probability of the loan value exceeding the house value.     

The Role of Home Equity Lending in the Recent Mortgage Crisis

Home equity lending grew rapidly from 2000 to 2008 with balances more than tripling. In this article, we examine the role this phenomenon may have played in increasing aggregate default risk during the mortgage crisis. We also document a relationship between growth in home equity lending and high house price depreciation and first mortgage default during the downturn of 2006–2009. Line of credit growth is shown to be associated with large increases in nonowner‐occupied property purchases, suggesting that home equity lines of credit were tapped to fund such investments, exacerbating default rates during the market downturn.     

Housing Price Dynamics,Mortgage Credit and Reverse Mortgage Demand: Theory and Empirical Evidence

This article presents some theoretical and empirical approaches for identifying interactions among fundamental economic variables that determine housing prices. Using home equity conversion mortgage (HECM) loan‐level data, this study quantifies the major risks of reverse mortgages and shows that higher housing prices induce higher demand for reverse mortgages among elderly homeowners. Senior citizens rationally hold pessimistic expectations about future housing price appreciation and lock in their home‐equity gains by obtaining reverse mortgages, which in turn led to the substantial HECM growth prior to the financial crisis of 2008. A novel simulation also forecasts HECM loans under various economic scenarios. From a mortgage credit perspective, these findings generate several policy implications for the implementation of “HECM 3.0.”     

Risk and Return to Housing, Tenure Choice and the Value of Housing in an Asset Pricing Context

Homeowners do not diversify their risky home equity because of fixed costs of issuing securities and information costs. An asset pricing model is developed for homeowners with the undiversifiable home equity asset. Homeowner value and house value to diversified landlords are compared, and a tenure choice equation is developed. We demonstrate the existence of a rational expectations equilibrium under appropriate conditions.     

An Analysis of Home Equity Conversion in the RAM Program

Home equity conversion by elderly homeowners is described and analyzed. The transactions were completed under the California RAM Program. One hundred twenty-six of 345 applicants elected to enter into reverse mortgages or sale-leasebacks. Data from interviews conducted as part of the application/counseling process are analyzed to discern the most important variables in the equity conversion decision.     

Do Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds Explain Returns on REITs?

The monthly returns on equity and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) are analyzed over the period July 1976 to December 1992. The results indicate that risk premiums on equity REITs are significantly related to risk premiums on a market portfolio of stocks as well as to the returns on mimicking portfolios for size and book-to-market equity factors in common stock returns. Mortgage REIT risk premiums are significantly related to the three stock market factors and two bond market factors in returns. Also, mortgage REIT shares underperform by an average of 6.8% per year.     

中国上市公司股权融资与债权融资成本实证研究

本文对中国上市公司IPO后的股权与债权的融资成本进行了实证研究。影响企业市场价值变化的主要因素是行业因素以及企业的初始市值，于是我们选取了家庭耐用消费品行业以及纺织和服装行业的上市公司，对同行业问各组匹配公司进行直接比较，从而发现：站在上市公司股东利益的角度考虑，债权融资成本低于股权融资成本。这主要是股权融资的软约束造成的企业经营业绩下滑，进而导致企业进行多次股权融资行为后市场价值下跌。     

Potential Beneficiaries from Reverse Mortgage Products for Elderly Homeowners: An Analysis of American Housing Survey Data

A variety of reverse mortgage loan programs have been available to elderly households for over a decade. The number of unrestricted reverse mortgage loans issued by the private sector has been quite small. About 12,000 loans have been issued through mid-1992. Some researchers take this to mean that the size of the potential market for reverse mortgages is also quite small. Other researchers claim that current low levels of activity reflect supply and demand problems, but that the potential market is in fact quite large. This paper uses American Housing Survey (AHS) data to estimate the potential size of the market for unrestricted reverse mortgages. The 1989 national AHS shows that there are over twelve million elderly homeowners (age 62 and over) who own their homes free and clear. Depending on their income, age and the level of home equity, the group of households most likely to benefit from reverse annuity mortgages is considerably smaller. As one approach to defining a lower bound of the estimate of potential beneficiaries from reverse mortgages, we count the number of homeowners in a prime group consisting of the older elderly, aged 70 or above, with an annual income of $30,000 or less, with home equity between $100,000 and $200,000, who have lived in their homes for over ten years. We estimate that there are about 800,000 elderly households in this prime group. For such households, reverse mortgage payments could represent a substantial percentage increase in income; other definitions of target groups can also be explored using the tables provided. The paper uses the 1985 through 1988 AHS Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) surveys to identify areas that have a large number of elderly homeowners in the prime target group, and in which these homeowners represent a large fraction of the elderly homeowner population. These locations are likely targets for introduction of reverse mortgage products because any campaign can be targeted towards a high concentration of likely eligible beneficiaries.     

The Leveraged City

This study analyzes the effects of leverage on real estate developments. In urban growth models, a real estate developer converts land from agricultural to urban use. At the time at which such a land conversion occurs, a developer who maximizes the equity value obtains a defaultable construction loan at fair market value. By presenting a more general form of the irreversibility premium of Capozza and Helsley, I show that, with more leverage, uncertainty is less of a deterrent to the land conversion. Under uncertainty, a leveraged developer exercises the land conversion option earlier than an unleveraged developer would. Leverage expands equilibrium city size.     

Environmental risk management and the cost of capital

Our study of 267 U.S. firms shows that improved environmental risk management is associated with a lower cost of capital. Our findings provide an alternative perspective on the environmental‐economic performance relationship, which has been dominated by the view that improvements in economic performance stem from better resource utilization. Firms also benefit from improved environmental risk management through a reduction in their cost of equity capital, a shift from equity to debt financing, and higher tax benefits associated with the ability to add debt. These findings help build better theory regarding the outcomes of strategic improvements in environmental risk management. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How strong is the business-to-business brand in the workforce? An empirically-tested model of ‘internal brand equity’ in a business-to-business setting

In the business-to-business sector, the brand-owner's employees are increasingly playing a key role in the representation of individual and corporate brands at the interface with actual and potential customers. Consequently, ‘internal branding’ has recently emerged as an important issue in industrial markets. This article proposes and empirically validates a theoretically structured framework for the measurement of a new construct, internal brand equity, and identifies its determinants and consequences. The findings offer evidence for the powerful impact of a brand-oriented corporate culture on internal brand equity, and demonstrate its relationship to external brand equity. Conclusions are drawn for management practice and future research.     

Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs

We analyze monthly returns on an equally weighted index of eighteen to twenty-three equity (real property) real estate investment trusts (REITs) that were traded on major stock exchanges over the 1973–87 period. We employ a multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Model using prespecified macroeconomic factors. We also test whether equity REIT returns are related to changes in the discount on closed-end stock funds, which seems plausible given the closed-end nature of REITs.
Three factors, and the percentage change in the discount on closed-end stock funds, consistently drive equity REIT returns: unexpected inflation and changes in the risk and term structures of interest rates. The impacts of these variables on equity REIT returns is around 60% of the impacts on corporate stock returns generally. As expected, the impacts are greater for more heavily levered REITs than for less levered REITs. Real estate, at least as measured by the return performance of equity REITs, is less risky than stocks generally, but does not offer a superior risk-adjusted return and is not a hedge against unexpected inflation.     

Industrial Real Estate Mortgage Default Experience of the New York State Job Development Authority Second Loan Program: A Preliminary Investigation

This paper explores the loan loss experience of a public industrial lending authority, employing contemporaneous borrower net equity as a link to mortgage loan default. The relationship between default, net equity and bankruptcy is tested on a small longitudinal data set of loans using nonparametric statistics and a proportional hazard model. Results show that negative net equity and firm bankruptcy are strongly associated with default among the study population. Further, the borrowers studied did not exercise the put option promptly, suggesting potential benefits from monitoring net equity one year or more prior to default.     

The Cap Rate Spread: A New Metric for Commercial Underwriting

This study introduces the cap rate spread as a novel metric for underwriting commercial mortgages. Cap rate spread is the difference between the cap rate and the fixed coupon rate. The spread predicts performance risk in a sample of 24,951 commercial mortgage‐backed securities loans during 1993–2011. We demonstrate that the cap rate spread includes crucial information about performance risk. The results arise from the role of the cap rate spread in generating positive or negative leveraged returns to equity in situations where additional equity is required. Incorporating simplistic cap rate spread requirements in commercial underwriting is expected to reduce loan performance risk.     

The accentuated CEO career horizon problem: evidence from international acquisitions

We develop a conceptual model of the career horizon problem of CEOs approaching retirement and discuss its implications on firm risk taking, specifically in engagement in international acquisitions. Based on prospect theory and agency theory, we emphasize the legacy conservation and wealth preservation concerns of CEOs and investigate how their holdings of in‐the‐money unexercised options and firm equity accentuate or mitigate the career horizon problem. The model is tested in the context of international acquisitions with a sample of 293 U.S. firms over a five‐year period (1995–1999). We find that a longer CEO career horizon is associated with a higher likelihood of international acquisitions. We also find that CEOs nearing retirement with high levels of in‐the‐money unexercised options and equity holdings are less likely to engage in international acquisitions than CEOs with low levels of in‐the‐money options and equity holdings. The study raises important considerations about the implications of CEOs' equity and in‐the‐money option holdings on firm risk taking at various stages of their career horizon. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equity Dilution: An Alternative Perspective on Mortgage Default

Empirical research on mortgage default in the single-family market has focused on the value of the borrower's put option using house price indices to estimate contemporaneous loan-to-value ratio or the probability of negative equity. But since the borrower possesses the option to increase leverage by taking on additional debt secured by junior liens subsequent to loan origination (a phenomenon termed here equity dilution ), even a perfect house price adjustment cannot be expected to accurately measure changes in borrower equity over time. Since junior liens are generally unobservable to senior debt holders, proxies are required in empirical applications. This paper employs an independent estimate of junior lien probability developed from the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances combined with loan level mortgage performance data to examine the role junior liens play in increasing default risk.     

住房抵押贷款提前还贷风险管理研究

从现代金融和风险管理角度看,住房抵押贷款提前还贷对商业银行是一种期权性风险,对其收取违约金并非国际惯例,也并不是有效的风险补偿方式。商业银行应适应市场竞争需要,接受风险转嫁并提供风险管理服务,运用风险定价技术在按揭交易价格中对提前还贷风险进行补偿。对于已承担的风险,商业银行应构建抵押贷款提前还贷的数据库,通过表内对;中和市场对冲,推出多样化的住房抵押贷款方式,积极推进住房抵押贷款证券化．从而最终增强银行的盈利来源和核心竞争力。     

What will be the possible barriers to consumers’ adoption of smart home services?

Recently, smart home services have come to the forefront as part of the growing market for the “Internet of Things.” Since these smart home services were introduced, they have been expected to grow rapidly. However, contrary to optimistic expectations for future market growth, the smart home market has appeared to hit a roadblock and remains at an early market stage. This study attempts to identify the possible barriers that consumers perceive when they are introduced to smart home services. Based on the resistance theory and perceived risk model, we investigate the relationship between perceived risk and resistance to smart home services, using technological uncertainty and service intangibility as the antecedents of perceived risk. Dividing perceived risk into four dimensions—performance risk, financial risk, privacy risk, and psychological risk—the empirical results show that these four risk types are affected by technology uncertainty and service intangibility, and the perceived risks, except for financial risk, have positive effects on the resistance to smart home services. When the survey respondents are divided into two types, postponers and rejecters, the result of postponers is similar with that of total sample, except that privacy risk is unimportant to postponers, and the result of rejecter cannot satisfy the recommended model fit.