MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION POLICIES IN THE EMU: SPILLOVERS, ASYMMETRIES AND INSTITUTIONS

This paper studies the institutional design of the coordination of macroeconomic stabilization policies within a monetary union in the framework of linear quadratic differential games. A central role in the analysis plays the partitioned game approach of the endogenous coalition formation literature. The specific policy recommendations in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) context depend on the particular characteristics of the shocks and the economic structure. In the case of a common shock, fiscal coordination or full policy coordination is desirable. When anti‐symmetric shocks are considered, fiscal coordination improves the performance but full policy coordination does not produce further gains in policymakers' welfare.     

农业技术创新扩散的国际经验及国内趋势

一项农业新技术只有经过扩散,被广大用户所采用,才能发挥它的最大效益。国外有多个学科对农业技术创新扩散问题进行了长期研究,在创新扩散的影响因素、用户系统、类型、过程、模型等许多方面取得了大量成果,积累了丰富的研究经验。国内对农业技术创新扩散的研究起步比较晚,内容主要集中在对国外理论与方法的推介、扩散的影响因素、农业技术推广体系的改进、农户对技术的选择等方面,研究成果比较少,还远远没有系统化。国内今后的研究应该借鉴国外的相关理论与方法,力争在理论研究、实证研究、多学科的联合攻关与综合研究以及扩散的空间过程等方面有所突破。     

MONEY DEMAND STABILITY AND INFLATION PREDICTION IN THE FOUR LARGEST EMU COUNTRIES

In this paper, we analyze the money demand functions of the four largest EMU countries and of the four-country (EMU-4) aggregate. We identify reasonable and stable money demand relationships for Germany, France and Spain as well as the EMU-4 aggregate. For the case of Italy, results are less clear. From the estimated money demand functions, we derive both EMU-4 and country-specific measures of money overhang. We find that the EMU-4 overhang measure strongly correlates with the country-specific measures, particularly since the start of EMU, and is useful to predict country-specific inflation. However, it generally does not encompass country-specific money overhang measures as predictors of inflation. Hence, aggregate money overhang is an important, but by far not an exhaustive, indicator for the disaggregate level.     

1990年代上海市人口和就业变化的空间格局和国际对比

文章将上海市划分为核心区、内圈、外圈三个部分，对其1990年代人口和就业结构的变化及其空间差异进行了分析并与若干东南亚特大城市进行了对比。研究表明，与这些东南亚特大城市相类似，上海市1990年代人口和就业增长最快的是其内圈。但与上述东南亚特大城市不同的是，上海市就业结构的变化仍以核心区最为突出；核心区仍保持较强的发展势头。研究还表明，1990年代上海经历了前所未有的人口和产业从核心区向外围的扩散。但与上述东南亚特大城市相比，这种扩散的空间范围有限，其郊区化和产业结构向高级服务业转变的过程仍处于起始阶段。上述分析和对比对研究上海今后人口分布和就业结构的演变和空间规划有着重要启示。     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAPITAL STOCK, UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES IN NINE EMU COUNTRIES

The focus of this paper is to investigate the importance of the capital stock in the determination of wages and unemployment in a range of EMU countries and to compare the results across countries. A time‐series analysis is conducted in the case of nine euro area countries, which were selected solely on the basis of data availability and consistency: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain. The paper begins with a short review of the literature on capital stock and unemployment, before it deals with the theoretical model. This is followed by estimation and testing of the theoretical model put forward, using both time‐series and panel data. The results are supportive of the main hypothesis of the paper: capital stock is an important determinant of unemployment and wages in the countries considered for the purposes of the paper.     

京津冀一体化中的产业升级与整合

进入"十一五"时期,京津冀都市圈在国家发展战略中的地位发生了重大变化.目前,京津冀区域一体化正处于要素一体化阶段,面临着在区域范围内实现产业集聚、扩散、整合、链接以及产业结构优化升级的紧迫任务.从京津冀三地的发展阶段、产业结构、产业层次和资源禀赋等各方面看,推进区域产业合作、加快产业升级具有强劲的驱动力与现实基础.     

城市土地集约利用国内外研究进展

城市土地集约利用是缓解当前经济社会发展土地需求与耕地保护矛盾的根本途径,也是促进我国城市健康发展和可持续发展的必然要求.在综述国内外相关研究的基础上,对我国未来城市土地集约利用研究进行了展望,指出我国城市土地集约利用研究应重视以下几个问题:城市土地集约利用的内涵界定和具体的研究目标相结合;城市土地集约利用研究与RS、GIS技术手段相结合;城市土地集约利用研究与城市土地利用的具体问题相结合;城市土地集约利用的成果和土地利用管理相结合.     

我国钢铁产业发展及其对外贸易的政策选择

在近几年中国钢铁工业迅速发展的背景下,首先对中国钢铁产业的发展及其对外贸易的现状进行分析和阐述.接着分析了中国钢铁产业发展及对外贸易存在的问题:铁矿石价格持续上涨,出口产品结构不合理,国与国之间的贸易摩擦加剧,跨国公司并购步伐加快.随后提出了大力发展钢铁循环经济,提升我国钢铁产业的综合竞争力,提高产业集中度,以及建立反倾销预警机制这一系列扩大高端钢铁产品出口的措施.     

TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, INFORMATION AND DOMESTIC POLITICS: THE ROLE OF DOMESTIC GROUPS

A domestic ratification game nested within an international bargaining game establishes that domestic politics influences the outcome of international negotiations. When information on the domestic side is incomplete, an informational role of lobbies is established. Cooperation is more likely when domestic lobbies provide information to Congress about a treaty presented for ratification, especially when cooperation would not otherwise occur. As government becomes more divided, cooperation is less likely; when it does occur, the legislature is better off – internal divisions worsen the external leverage of states, while a united home front is the executive's best chance for obtaining her ideal agreement.     

THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS IN THE REVIVAL OF TRADE: THE LAW MERCHANT, PRIVATE JUDGES, AND THE CHAMPAGNE FAIRS

A good reputation can be an effective bond for honest behavior in a community of traders if members of the community know how others have behaved in the past – even if any particular pair of traders meets only infrequently. In a large community, it would be impossibly costly for traders to be perfectly informed about each other's behavior, but there exist institutions that can restore the effectiveness of a reputation system using much less extensive information. The system of judges used to enforce commercial law before the rise of the state was such an institution, and it successfully encouraged merchants (1) to behave honestly, (2) to impose sanctions on violators, (3) to become adequately informed about how others had behaved, (4) to provide evidence against violators of the code, and (5) to pay any judgments assessed against them, even though each of these behaviors might be personally costly.     

国家级风景名胜区中的世界遗产项目开发保护与国际经验借鉴

风景名胜区和世界遗产都属于公共性旅游资源,具有稀缺性和垄断性特征.其中,风景名胜区具有较强的旅游产品属性,而世界遗产具有较强的公益性,这就决定了世界遗产项目应有更高的开发保护要求.目前我国的国家级风景名胜区中有18个世界遗产项目,在对它们进行开发利用的同时,必须坚持保护其真实性和完整性这两个原则.文章在分析该类项目现状并与国外类似项目进行对比的基础上,提出了值得借鉴的国际经验.     

我国大遗址保护区控制农地流转的法律及制度研究

通过分析大遗址保护区农地流转的法律和现实条件,认为在城市化和工业化高度发展的阶段,大遗址保护区内农地流转将不可避免,提出大遗址保护区控制农地流转的有效管制方法——借鉴海外土地发展权制度配置保护区土地发展权。     

我国西部地区乡村坡地聚落迁移的过程与效应

坡地聚落是西部地区在特殊的山区条件下人地关系长期作用的表现形式。随着西部地区的人口增长,区域人地系统的人口压力日趋紧张,导致坡地聚落表现出向上、向下迁移的不同迁移过程,以适应调整中的人地关系。通过分析坡地聚落的空间迁移过程,文章认为应通过市场机制为主、政府扶持为辅的方式,引导人口和聚落向下迁移,减轻人口压力,促进西部地区的整体发展。     

UNIVERSITIES AND ECONOMY:THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION

Dr.MauritsvanRooijenVice－President(internaional),LeidenUniversityTheNetherlands.Vice－President(internathonal),UniversityofWestminster,LondonIfweconsideruniversitiesasnationalinstitutions,itisratherpeculiartoworkinaseniormanagerialroleattwoU-niversitiesindifferentcountries,asIdo.Butinmyview,u-niversities－oratleasttheleadinguniversitiesintheworld－arefirstandforemostinternational.Thisinternation-aldimensionisnotinconflictwiththeirnationalposi-tion.Onthecontrary,itinteractseffectivelywit…     

近10年来河南省入境和国内游客的空间聚集性分析

系统收集了2000-2007年河南省18个地市的国际国内容流量数据,利用集中率(CRn)、地理集中指数和变异系数等,对其地域分布的空间集中性进行了定量分析.研究表明:受消费特点、旅游资源品位、区位条件以及旅游开发水平等因素影响,河南入境旅游具有较高的空间集中性,游客主要集中在中心城市和高级别的旅游景点上,来源以外国人为主.与入境旅游相比,国内游客的空间集聚性相对较低,其空间分布受旅游资源价值、区域消费水平、经济水平和交通区位等影响,在地域分布上具有较大的均衡性.近10年来河南省入境旅游和国内旅游的空间聚集性在下降,而空间均衡度在逐渐提高,反映出旅游产业发展地域分布正在逐渐扩张.