气候变化对欧洲农业的系统影响及对策

本文基于欧洲气候变化的历史演进与未来情景,系统分析了气候变化对欧洲农业的历史和潜在影响,提供了欧洲农业应对气候变化的适应性措施,及其对中国未来农业发展的启示和建议。     

关于气候变化与粮食安全生产研究——基于农业生产中性别平等的分析

气候环境变化使得不确定性因素在农业生产中频繁出现,为了达到农业生产目标,当前在发展中国家中流行采用基于参与国际贸易的方式来克服粮食短缺问题。文章研究目的是探讨农业生产者如何影响粮食安全,对往年文献中应对气候变化和粮食安全关系的研究提出不同意见,并引用农业推广项目方法来应对这些挑战。针对有关农业产量增长、粮食安全和气候变化影响因素的描述,文章还涉及与农业产量增长息息相关的贫困和性别平等问题。贫困地区的农业生产者只能通过必要机制才能享受到全球农业贸易给他们带来的收益所得,针对性别平等问题的农业推广项目可以帮助他们应对气候环境变化带来的挑战。     

“两型社会”背景下湖南省发展低碳经济的现状与未来

全球气候变暖是人类共同面临的巨大挑战,保护气候安全是国际社会的共同目标。联合国哥本哈根气候变化大会后,应对气候变化,发展低碳经济,越来越成为国际社会的共识。这是倡导发展"低碳经济"的大背景。湖南省发展低碳经济是"两型社会"建设的本质要求,是科技革命的核心,是社会和经济可持续发展的必然趋势。因此,阐述了发展低碳经济对湖南省建设"两型社会"的重要影响,从经济基础、产业结构及技术力量等方面分析了湖南发展低碳经济的现状及发展未来。     

我国“气候智能型”农业及贸易发展研究

"气候智能型"农业是人类为应对全球气候变化而提出的新型农业发展模式。近年来,我国农业生产及贸易受全球气候变化的不利影响逐步凸显,已给我们敲响了警钟。农业走"气候智能"发展之路应围绕智能化应对洪水和干旱等气候变化的能力建设以及体制机制建设而展开。     

气候变化对黑龙江省林业发展的影响及对策

近年来,气候变化成为全世界关注的热点问题,全球的极端气候事件发生的频率和强度明显增加,对我国林业发展产生很大影响。因为林业在减缓气候变化方面有着重要的作用,而黑龙江省又是林业大省,林业占国民经济的比重很大,要想实现全省经济与社会的快速发展,就必须加强林业应对气候变化的研究。因此,在综述了近年来黑龙江省气候变化情况的同时,总结了气候变化对黑龙江省林业发展的影响,并结合黑龙江省林业发展目标提出了未来林业应对气候变化的基本对策。     

从“气候变化”到“应对气候变化”

"气候变化"和"应对气候变化"两个问题正在逐步发酵,引发全球范围内的政治动员和经济博弈,受国际政治经济格局复杂性的影响,未来的发展仍存在很多不确定因素,国际气候大会的挫折体现了国际社会应对气候变化的过高预期和各国政策思维上的巨大鸿沟,其中,中美两国的态度和对策至关重要。     

气候变暖背景下长三角地区农业应对策略研究

气候变化是气候要素在连续几十年或更长时间的长期统计结果的任何系统性变化。气候变化的原因可能是自然界的外源强迫,也可能是气候系统固有的内部过程,还可能是人类活动的强迫。气候变化问题已引起国际社会广泛的关注。近年来国内外的研究表明,气候变化会导致世界各地的作物产量及生产率有较大的变化,许多地区的农业生产模式也有可能改变。气候变化问题已成为各国政府和科学界共同关心的重大问题,然而在气候变化给农业所带来影响方面的研究还不够深入。本文拟分析气候变化对我国长三角农业生产所带来的影响,在此基础上探讨了如何应对气候变化。     

基于多尺度林线对气候变化响应研究综述

全球气候变化研究的焦点之一就是根据物种特征和植被类型分布与气候的关系,反演地质时期的气候特征,预测未来气候变化趋势。林线作为气候变化的"强信号",是全球气候与环境变化的敏感指示器。不同尺度林线研究差异显著,均可反映诸多尺度气候变化信息。基于此,文章创新从样点尺度、景观尺度和区域尺度分别阐述了林线研究方向、国内外研究现状与方法新动向。通过新视角较全面系统地概括了林线与气候变化的响应机制。     

基于情景规划的国家公园气候变化 应对：美国经验及对中国的启示

：应对气候变化已成为全球共识，国家公园和自然保 护地既是应对气候变化的重要阵地，也是受气候变化影响的敏 感区域，但中国目前的研究和实践均还较薄弱，亟须借鉴域外 经验。系统梳理了美国国家公园体系中，气候变化对自然、文 化和社区的影响，概述了美国国家公园管理局的气候变化应对 行动，指出情景规划是重要的气候变化应对工具。总结了美 国国家公园在气候变化中开展情景规划的流程，提炼其规划特 征，并以魔鬼塔国家纪念区为案例，详析其情景规划实践过 程。在此基础上，总结了中国国家公园及体制试点区可能面临 的气候变化风险，对比了情景规划与传统规划的区别，明确目 前推广条件的欠缺，指出应逐步推广情景规划，并从实现科研 储备、奠定实践基础、建立规划体系三方面提出可能的路径， 对中国开展国家公园和自然保护地应对气候变化的相关工作具 有借鉴意义。     

国际碳排放交易体系现状及发展趋势分析

全球气候变化成为国际热点问题,碳排放交易作为应对气候变化的一项金融创新日益活跃,其本质是利用市场机制解决气候变化问题。2012年年底《京都议定书》第一承诺期结束后,国际气候政策的变化对我国碳交易市场的发展具有重要指导意义。在介绍国际碳排放体系现状的基础上,深入分析国际气候政策变化并预测未来国际碳排放交易市场的发展趋势。     

Climate change and spatial agricultural development in Turkey

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of agricultural production in Turkey between 2004 and 2019. Our findings show that climate change has a pervasive impact on agricultural development. The empirical results show that the average temperature is negatively associated with agricultural land use, grain, and legume production. Moreover, regional variability analyses reveal the nonmonotonic relationships between climatic factors and agricultural output. Climate change hurts agricultural production in northern and central regions the most. This finding points out the ineffectiveness of one-size-fits-all-type policies for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change in topography with sizeable spatial dissimilarities. Overall, our results suggest that climate change will significantly threaten the evolution of agricultural activities that are critical for regional development. In addition, findings show that spatial spillovers and heterogeneity will be crucial for designing climate change policies for rural and agricultural development.     

增强应对气候变化的能力：世界各国的战略选择

全球气候变暖是全人类共同面临的巨大挑战，维护气候安全是国际社会的共同目标。气候变化会导致自然灾害频发、经济下滑、农业减产以及气候移民等一系列问题。应对气候变化，发展低碳经济是现在时代的要求，也是全社会的责任。全球范围多发的自然灾害给人类经济生活到底会带来什么样的危害，已成为人们普遍关心的话题，无论是哪个国家和地区发生严重自然灾害都会引起国际社会强烈关注。为此，世界各国提出了自己未来的战略重点：日本提出了低碳社会行动的线路图，印度出台了一系列的国家行动计划，中国香港将重点放在建筑节能上，美国通过了《美国清洁能源安全法案》，欧盟大幅削减温室气体排放量。     

气候变化对干旱区居民生计脆弱性影响研究——基于新疆和宁夏两省区的农户调查

气候变化是导致干旱区居民生计脆弱性的重要原因之一。构建生计脆弱性指标(Livelihood Vulnerability Index,LVI-IPCC)可以评估气候变化对干旱地区居民生计的影响。根据IPCC定义气候变化脆弱性的三个特征,选择新疆、宁夏两个典型干旱省份,调查社会人口指标、生计情况、社会关系网络、健康、食品、饮水安全、自然灾害和气候变化等数据,用复合指标和脆弱性指标进行对比分析。结果表明,宁夏在水资源、健康等方面的脆弱性更为明显,而新疆在社会关系、自然灾害和气候变化等方面更为脆弱。这种实证方法可用于被监测脆弱性,在缺乏地区性数据时检验某种政策的有效性。     

农业灾害经济:周期波动与综合治理

本文认为,农业是国民经济的基础,也是最易受各种自然灾害影响的脆弱产业。近30年来,农业灾害与粮食产量的关联发展,揭示了农业灾害经济具有周期波动性和显著的区域分异规律,灾害是影响我国粮食安全的重大因素。为此,应当将减轻农业灾害和保障农业生产者的风险收益作为国家解决"三农"问题的重要方面,加强对农业灾害的综合治理,通过调整农牧业生产的区域布局、强化工程减灾措施与技术减灾措施、在丰歉年之间平准粮价、建立农业政策保险等,达到减轻农业灾害损失并维护农业生产者利益的目的。     

Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: Effects of mitigation, 1990–2080

Potential changes in global and regional agricultural water demand for irrigation were investigated within a new socio-economic scenario, A2r, developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) with and without climate change, with and without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Water deficits of crops were developed with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)–IIASA Agro-ecological Zone model, based on daily water balances at 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude and then aggregated to regions and the globe. Future regional and global irrigation water requirements were computed as a function of both projected irrigated land and climate change and simulations were performed from 1990 to 2080. Future trends for extents of irrigated land, irrigation water use, and withdrawals were computed, with specific attention given to the implications of climate change mitigation. Renewable water-resource availability was estimated under current and future climate conditions. Results suggest that mitigation of climate change may have significant positive effects compared with unmitigated climate change. Specifically, mitigation reduced the impacts of climate change on agricultural water requirements by about 40%, or 125–160 billion m³ (Gm³) compared with unmitigated climate. Simple estimates of future changes in irrigation efficiency and water costs suggest that by 2080 mitigation may translate into annual cost reductions of about 10 billion US$.     

A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal

The impact of climate change on agriculture has been one of the most discussed topics in the literature on climate change. Multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have frequently been used to examine the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, these studies do not focus on country-specific issues related to the link between climate change and agriculture. This paper aims to address this gap by investigating the economy-wide impacts of climate change on Nepalese agriculture. Nepal makes an interesting case study as it has one of the most vulnerable agricultural economies in South Asia. This paper develops a comparative static multi-household CGE model to trace the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in Nepal. The results suggest that climate change has a significant negative impact on the overall Nepalese economy due to the induced loss of agricultural productivity. The results further reveal that rural households in Nepal, whose livelihoods primarily depend on subsistence farming, will face additional climate change–induced stresses due to already overstrained poverty and a weak social welfare system. The results indicate an urgent need to mainstream adaptation strategies to lessen the negative impacts of any climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal.     

湖南省农业产业化的发展思路

目前湖南省农业产业化经营雏形已经形成，但还存在龙头企业不强，产业特色不突出，科技含量不高，链条化比较松散以及投入不足等问题。为此必须通过调整结构，优化布局，加强农业基础设施建设，大力实施科技兴农，充分开发利用并有效地保护农业资源，尽快把湖南建成一个以高效农业、生态农业、创汇农业、旅游农业为特色的现代化农业强省。     

Well-being effects of extreme weather events in the United States

The increase in weather and climate disasters in recent years has prompted an interest in analyzing their consequences and the mitigation and adaptation measures that can help minimize their potentially large impacts on individuals’ welfare. We match thirty-one billion-dollar disasters with individual survey data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to estimate the effect of extreme weather events on the subjective well-being of U.S. residents. Our results indicate that natural disasters have a negative and robust impact on subjective well-being in the affected communities, and that, on average, this impact peaks 6 months after the event, and then decays over time. We then investigate the attenuating impact of health care access, flood insurance, and governmental assistance programs and find a partial compensating role for risk-transfer and relief measures. We also find that stronger emotional and social support mitigates the negative impact of natural disasters.     

基于GIS的湖南省生态环境综合评价研究

应用GIS技术与层次分析法，从自然环境、灾害状况、环境污染和社会经济四个方面对湖南省的生态环境进行了定量综合评价和空间格局分析，并根据评价结果将湖南省生态环境划分为五个级别。研究表明，湖南省生态环境综合状况基本上由东向西逐渐变差，但局部区域有差异，且自然环境与社会经济状况的空间分布大体吻合。说明自然环境条件对湖南省生态环境的空间分异起主要作用，但灾害、经济发展和环境污染等因素也在一定程度上影响了生态环境的空间格局。     

Climate change and its marginalizing effect on agriculture

The agriculture of some areas considered marginal in the EU agricultural context is being questioned due to its low productivity and growing dependence on economic aid programs Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This study shows that climate change increases these areas marginalisation of since worsens crop growth conditions. The influence of climate change on the agricultural sector is analyzed using the Multicriteria Decision Paradigm with information provided by the Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) and a General Circulation Model (GCM) as inputs for multicriteria mathematical programming models. The results obtained show climate change effects on the crop portfolio. Further results suggest that climate change effects are not only economics and environmental, reducing the suitable area for crops, but also social as it causes loss of jobs in the agricultural sector.