信息化对城乡一体化进程的影响及对策

城乡一体化作为我国协调城市和农村两大地域经济和社会系统的重要方式,在未来全球信息化的浪潮中,将会对我国城市化进程产生更加广泛和深刻的影响。文章从城乡地域社会经济、人口流动和居住空间的变化、城乡文化和思想意识的交流以及城乡地域生态系统的可持续发展等角度出发,分析了信息化对我国城乡一体化进程所带来的各方面影响,并就城乡制度政策改革、统一市场体系、基础设施建设、生态环境保护等方面如何利用信息化趋势来促进城乡协调发展提出了相应的对策。     

THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY AND NONTECHNOLOGY SHOCKS IN BUSINESS CYCLES*

This article proposes a method to identify technology and nontechnology shocks that permanently affect labor productivity and applies this method to data for the G7 countries. In most cases, whereas technology improvements have negative or weak effects on hours worked, positive permanent nontechnology shocks are expansionary. Permanent nontechnology shocks play an important role in business cycles, particularly in the United States and Japan, and account for 71% of a large reduction in Japan's detrended output from 1991 to 2002. Credit conditions are likely to be an important driver of variations in permanent nontechnology shocks.     

COMPLEMENTS VERSUS SUBSTITUTES AND TRENDS IN FERTILITY CHOICE IN DYNASTIC MODELS*

Demographers emphasize decreased mortality and “economic development” as the main contributors generating the demographic transition. Contrary to previous findings, we show that simple dynastic models à la Barro–Becker can reproduce observed changes in fertility in response to decreased mortality and increased productivity growth if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is low enough. We show that this is largely due to number and welfare of children being substitutes in the utility of parents in this case. We find that with an IES of one‐third, model predictions of changes in fertility amount to two‐thirds of those observed in U.S. data since 1800.     

MEDIA CAPTURE AND INFORMATION MONOPOLIZATION IN JAPAN*

We investigate the unique institution of the Japanese press industry called the kisha club system. By tracing through its history, we show how the kisha club system has developed as a result of the government's attempt to control the media, and the media's incentive to use the opportunity provided by the government to limit rivalry within the industry. By providing a simple model that links the distribution of political power and the media capture, we explain why this institutional arrangement has been so persistent in Japan.     

INCOME AND CONSUMPTION DISTRIBUTION TRENDS IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1950–70*

Unlike most developing countries, the Philippines has had several (four) reasonably comparable family income and expenditure surveys, covering a reasonable period of time (15 years). This study draws on those surveys and on wage data in an attempt to judge how, if at all, the distribution of income has been changing. The household survey data shows a declining share of both income and consumption for the top income groups; for the bottom quintile the share of recorded income fell while that of recorded consumption rose. When possible biases of the data are allowed for, it is hard to argue that either a narrowing or widening of income differentials occurred over these years. Real wages of a number of important occupations appear to have fallen, however. Only a partial reconciliation of the trends indicated by these wage series and the income trends for various occupational groups implicit in the household survey data was possible, indicating either data problems or the need for more subtle interpretations of the data. Since structural change in the labour force has been rapid (an increasing share being found in the high income occupations as time passed), declining wage rates for certain lower income groups cannot be taken to imply a general worsening of distribution. Our final conclusion is that distribution has probably changed little, and is about as likely to have changed one way as the other.     

SOCIAL CHANGE: THE SEXUAL REVOLUTION*

In 1900 only 6% of unwed teenage females engaged in premarital sex. Now, three quarters do. The sexual revolution is studied here using an equilibrium matching model, where the costs of premarital sex fall over time due to technological improvement in contraceptives. Individuals differ in their desire for sex. Given this, people tend to circulate in social groups where prospective partners share their views on premarital sex. To the extent that society's customs and mores reflect the aggregation of decentralized decision making by its members, shifts in the economic environment may induce changes in what is perceived as culture.     

外商投资与天津电子信息产业群的形成演化研究

产业群是产业发展的一种内在规律,也和经济的对外开放程度有很大关系。文章以天津电子信息产业群为例,分析了外商直接投资对地方产业群形成演变所起的作用,认为大量的外资进入是产业群形成的直接动力,建立在供给与需求机制上的跨国公司与当地国有企业之间产业链的融合是产业群成长的根本动力。随着跨国公司在全球的投资目标和经营方式的改变,本地生产网络和全球生产网络格局发生了变化,对于这一类产业群,其持续的发展有赖于不断的制度创新。     

ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND THE LACK OF PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION*

There is pervasive evidence that individuals invest primarily in local stocks and thus hold poorly diversified portfolios. The present article develops a theoretical model in which the presence of informational asymmetries introduces home equity bias. The main departure from previous theoretical work is the assumption that local investors outperform nonlocal investors in identifying the correct ranking of local investment opportunities, instead of possessing superior information about the aggregate performance of the local stock market. The second key assumption is based on the evidence that short‐selling is a costly activity.