Political‐Economic Regime and the Wage Curve: Evidence from Chile, 1957–96

This paper tests whether a wage curve—a negative relationship between the level of unemployment and the level of pay—existed in Chile during 1957–96. The analysis is divided into two periods. For 1957–73, during inward‐led development, we reject the existence of a wage curve. For 1974–96, when the economy opened, state‐run industries were privatised and labour rights weakened, we find a wage curve of ?0.08. Based on this finding we conclude that the unemployment–pay elasticity in the post‐reform period is similar to the ?0.07 to ?0.10 wage curve found in other western, capitalist countries. Disaggregating the analysis by group, we find that women, non‐university educated workers and public sector workers have suffered more from unemployment. Yet informal sector workers have not experienced pay drops as a result of unemployment, contradicting the hypothesis that the informal sector acts as a buffer during economic downturns.     

International Borrowing, Specialization, and Unemployment in a Small Open Economy

The authors show that an increase in international borrowing increases specialization and unemployment in a small open economy that is subject to terms‐of‐trade risks. The economy has a production advantage in the export sector. However, the size of the export sector is limited by the available funds. To insure workers against income fluctuations arising from terms‐of‐trade risks, firms in the export sector offer workers a stable wage rate with the possibility of unemployment. An increase in international borrowing increases specialization in the export sector, which leads to higher unemployment when the terms‐of‐trade shock is bad. A state‐contingent price subsidy can reduce unemployment without inefficiently reducing specialization. The results are robust to the introduction of risk‐averse firms.     

Creative destruction and unemployment in an open economy model

I develop a model of endogenous economic growth and search and matching frictions in the labour market. I study the effect of trade liberalization between two identical economies on long‐run unemployment and show that bilateral trade liberalization has a steady state effect on unemployment that is negative for countries with a relatively larger R&D sector and positive for countries with a smaller R&D sector.     

Social Status,Labour Market Frictions and Endogenous Growth

This paper develops an endogenous growth model that incorporates wealth‐enhanced preferences for social status and labour market frictions to investigate the role of social status in determining unemployment and long‐run growth. We show that the increase in the desire for social status reduces the unemployment rate, but its effect on long‐run growth is unclear. We then calibrate our model to the US economy and find that an increase in the desire for social status lowers the unemployment rate and enhances the economic growth rate in the long run.     

Monopolistic Competition and Different Wage Setting Systems

In this paper, we present a disequilibrium unemployment model without labor market frictions and monopolistic competition in the goods market within an infinite horizon model of growth. We consider different wage setting systems and compare wages, the unemployment rate, and income per capita in the long‐run at firm, sector, and national (centralized) levels. The aim of this paper is to determine under which conditions, the inverted‐U hypothesis between unemployment and the degree of centralization of wage bargaining, reported by Calmfors and Driffill [Economic Policy, 6, 14–61, 1988], is confirmed. Our analysis shows that a high degree of market power normally produces the inverted‐U shape for unemployment. Moreover, we also illustrate that this inverted‐U shape can be reversed when the ability of trade unions to internalize the provision of social services is great enough at sector level.     

Terms of Trade Shocks and Endogenous Search Unemployment: A Two‐Sector Model with Non‐Traded Goods

We develop a simple and tractable two‐sector search model featuring a non‐traded sector and endogenous search unemployment to examine the impact of terms of trade shocks on unemployment. We show that changes in terms of trade will not only lead to employment reallocation across sectors, as in the traditional trade models, but, more importantly, impact upon search unemployment within each sector. Specifically, we show that an improvement (deterioration) of terms of trade reduces (increases) unemployment rates in both traded and non‐traded sectors.     

IMMIGRATION UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP: THE EVIDENCE FROM CANADA*

This paper examines the relationship between unemployment and immigration in Canada. The bi‐directional causality test finds no evidence of a significant effect of Canadian immigration on unemployment. Cointegration tests indicate that there is no observed increase in aggregate unemployment due to immigration in the long run. The results from the causality test based on the vector error correction model confirm that, in the short run, past unemployment does cause (less) immigration but not vice versa. There is also a long‐run positive relationship among per‐capita GDP, immigration rate and real wages. The results indicate that, in the short‐run, more immigration is possibly associated with attractive Canadian immigration policies, and in the long‐run, as the labour market adjusts, Canadian‐born workers are likely to benefit from increased migration.     

The Optimal Environmental Tax and Urban Unemployment in an Open Economy

This paper investigates how a rise in the urban pollution tax rate may affect urban unemployment and welfare in a small open Harris–Todaro (HT) model with intersectoral capital mobility. First, by formulating urban pollution as a dirty input in manufacturing, we find that an increase in the urban pollution tax rate can increase the level of urban unemployment even with intersectoral capital mobility. That is, the optimistic finding by Rapanos (2007 ) that environmental protection policy reduces urban unemployment in the long run does not always hold. Second, the (sub)optimal pollution tax rate under urban unemployment is higher than the Pigouvian tax rate (the marginal damage of pollution). This result opposes those of Beladi and Chao (2006 ) for a closed HT economy and that of Tsakiris et al. (2008 ) for an open HT economy with sector‐specific capital.     

Unemployment Invariance

Abstract. This paper provides a critique of the ‘unemployment invariance hypothesis’, according to which the behavior of the labor market, by itself, ensures that the long‐run unemployment rate is independent of the size of the capital stock, productivity and the labor force. In the context of an endogenous growth model, we show that the labor market alone need not contain all the equilibrating mechanisms to ensure unemployment invariance; in particular, other markets may perform part of the equilibrating process as well. By implication, policies that raise the growth path of capital or increase the effective working‐age population may influence the long‐run unemployment rate.     

THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND THE BALASSA–SAMUELSON EFFECT: THE ROLE OF THE DISTRIBUTION SECTOR

Abstract. This paper investigates the long‐run impact of the distribution sector on the real exchange rate. The main result is that an increase in the productivity and product market competition of the distribution sector with respect to foreign countries leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate, similar to what a relative increase in the domestic productivity of tradables does. This contrasts with the result that one would expect by considering the distribution sector as belonging to the non‐tradable sector. One explanation may lie in the use of the services from the distribution sector in the tradable sector.     

Environmental Goods and Measures for Their Promotion: An Analysis Using a Fair Wage Model

In this paper, we model a two‐sector small open economy with emissions and unemployment associated with the fair wage effort hypothesis, and investigate the environmental and employment impact of an emission tax, a subsidy for purchasing environmental goods in the downstream polluting industry, and a subsidy to the upstream eco‐industry. We then show that if the eco‐industry is skilled labor intensive relative to the polluting final goods industry, while a subsidy for purchasing environmental goods decreases the unemployment rate of unskilled labor, it may increase total emissions. In contrast, the emission tax and the subsidy to eco‐industry firms worsen the unemployment rate, though both policies decrease total emissions. Hence, if the emission tax is set equal to the marginal environmental damage, and either a downstream or upstream subsidy is used to mitigate unskilled unemployment, the optimal subsidy to purchase the goods is positive whereas the optimal subsidy to the eco‐industry is negative, i.e., a tax on the eco‐industry.     

Audit Probability versus Effectiveness: The Beckerian Approach Revisited

The Beckerian approach to tax compliance examines how a tax authority can maximize social welfare by trading‐off audit probability against the fine rate on undeclared tax. This paper offers an alternative examination of the privately optimal behavior of a tax authority tasked by government to maximize expected revenue. The tax authority is able to trade‐off audit probability against audit effectiveness, but takes the fine rate as fixed in the short run. I find that the tax authority's privately optimal audit strategy does not maximize voluntary compliance, and that voluntary compliance is nonmonotonic as a function of the tax authority's budget. Finally, the tax authority's privately optimal effective fine rate on undeclared tax does not exceed two at interior optima.     

Real Minimum Wage and Growth Theory: Simulations and Some Policy Results

Abstract

A Solow type two‐sector growth model is used to examine several issues related to growth and unemployment in a minimum wage economy. By simulating the model, we demonstrate that given the same percentage increase in wage rate, an economy with a higher capital–labor ratio is more likely to decay. More importantly, a tariff policy reduces the unemployment periods by 92% provided that the current capital–labor ratio is one‐sixth of that of the steady state capital–labor ratio. We assume that the first best policy of uniform wage subsidy is not politically feasible.     

Mixed Ownership, Unemployment, and Welfare for a Developing Economy

This paper considers the employment and welfare effects of mixed ownership via partial privatization of state‐owned enterprises for a developing economy. An increase in the private ownership lowers the production and, hence, worsens urban unemployment in the short run. However, in the long run, capital moves to the rural region, alleviating the problem of urban unemployment. The employment effect can have a positive contribution to social welfare in the long run.     

Pension reforms and saving gains in the United Kingdom

The empirical validity of the effect of pension reforms on domestic savings in the UK has been investigated using an Auto‐regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model capable of testing for the existence of a long‐run relationship regardless of whether the underlying time series are individually I(1) or I(0). The total savings response to change in pension savings is positive and significant, but an increase in occupational pension saving appears offset by a decrease in other forms of saving. This paper concludes that there is no firm evidence that aggregate savings increase considerably because of privately funded pension schemes.     

Public Expenditures,Growth, and Distribution in a Mixed Regime of Education with a Status Motive

This paper tackles the issue of growth, distribution, and the provision of public services in a growth model with human capital accumulation where heterogeneous individuals decide whether to attend a publicly funded education regime or a privately funded one. Heterogeneity of individuals is introduced via their status‐motivation which is shown to affect their choice of education. In such a framework, we obtain an inverted‐U shaped relationship between growth and the size of the public education sector. In contrast with the general wisdom, we show that a larger public education sector is compatible with both a reduction of inequalities and an increase of long‐term growth. Although we demonstrate that in a majoritarian system all individuals agree on a lower size of the public education regime than that which maximizes growth, our analysis also highlights the tension between the direct beneficiaries and nonbeneficiaries from the public regime.     

Understanding South Africa's economic puzzles*

South Africa has undergone a remarkable transformation since its democratic transition in 1994, but economic growth and employment generation have been disappointing. Most worryingly, unemployment is currently among the highest in the world. While the proximate cause of high unemployment is that prevailing wages levels are too high, the deeper cause lies elsewhere, and is intimately connected to the inability of the South African to generate much growth momentum in the past decade. High unemployment and low growth are both ultimately the result of the shrinkage of the non‐mineral tradable sector since the early‐1990s. The weakness in particular of export‐oriented manufacturing has deprived South Africa of growth opportunities as well as of job creation at the relatively low end of the skill distribution. Econometric analysis identifies the decline in the relative profitability of manufacturing in the 1990s as the most important contributor to the lack of vitality in that sector.     

Downward nominal wage rigidity in Canada: Evidence against a “greasing effect”

The existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) has often been used to justify a positive inflation target. It is traditionally assumed that positive inflation could “grease the wheels” of the labour market by putting downward pressure on real wages, easing labour market adjustments during a recession. A rise in the inflation target would attenuate the long‐run level of unemployment and hasten economic recovery after an adverse shock. Following Daly and Hobijn (2014), we re‐examine these issues in a model that accounts for precautionary motives in wage‐setting behaviour. We confirm that DNWR generates a long‐run negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, in line with previous contributions to the literature. However, we also find that the increase in the number of people bound by DNWR following a negative demand shock rises with the inflation target, offsetting the beneficial effects a higher inflation target has on closing the unemployment gap. As an implication, contrary to previous contributions that neglected precautionary behaviour, the speed at which unemployment returns back to pre‐crisis levels during recessions is relatively unaffected by variations in the inflation target.     

Taxation In The Two‐Sector Neoclassical Growth Model With Sector‐Specific Externalities And Endogenous Labour Supply*

This paper examines the long‐run impacts of selective (or sector‐specific) commodity, payroll, and profit taxes in a two‐sector endogenous growth model with sector‐specific production externalities, in which one sector produces consumption goods and the other produces investment goods. The novelty of the model is that it allows not only for endogenous labour supply but also for the intersectoral allocation of resources, which may together lead to indeterminacy. We analytically show that the stability properties of the long‐run equilibrium critically affect the long‐run effects of these selective taxes, which may reverse the standard results of the growth effects of distortionary taxes.     

HYSTERESIS AND THE NAIRU IN THE EURO AREA

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that hysteresis had on its development. Using the Kalman‐filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early 1970s. The Kalman‐filter technique is applied here using explicit exogenous variables. In order to test for hysteresis, the dependence of the Nairu on actual unemployment and long‐term unemployment is estimated and found to be significant for the Euro Area and Germany, respectively. The existence of hysteresis effects implies the possibility of a long‐run non‐superneutrality of monetary policy.