Growth,R&D,and uncertainty

I develop and analytically solve the stochastic Romer model in which the creation of ideas is driven by a stochastic process. I show that higher uncertainty about R&D, through the reallocation effects of resources among sectors, slows down economic growth and deteriorates welfare. The results suggest that persistently high uncertainty tends to severely restrict the scope of sustained income growth.     

R&D boundaries of the firm: An estimation of the double-hurdle model on commissioned R&D,joint R&D,and licensing in Japan

This paper studies the firm’s decisions on in-house R&D and its procurement from outside through commissioned R&D, joint R&D, and technology acquisitions (i.e., licensing-in). Using the data about 14,000 manufacturing firms in Japan, we estimate a modified double-hurdle model in which the first hurdle determines whether the firm should perform any R&D at all and the second hurdle determines whether (and how much) it should perform each mode of procured R&D. The results generally support the two major theories—the transaction cost theory and the capability theory. The estimated positive effects of firm size, in-house R&D intensity, diversification, and vertical integration support the hypothesis that capability is needed for procured R&D, while the estimated positive effect of the index of appropriability by patents supports the hypothesis that this appropriability reduces transaction costs. In addition, we found that information flow from scientific sources and that from transaction-based sources affect the three modes of procured R&D differently.     

Empirical Patterns of Firm Growth and R&D Investment: a Quality Ladder Model Interpretation

We present a partial equilibrium model of endogenous firm growth with R&D investment and stochastic innovation as the engines of growth, drawing on the quality ladder models in the macro growth literature, and the literature on patent races and the discrete choice models of product differentiation. The model fits a number of empirical patterns well, including: (i) a skewed size distribution of firms with persistent differences in firm sizes, (ii) firm growth independent of firm size, as stated in the so-called Gibrat's law, and (iii) R&D investment proportional to sales.     

R&D Spillovers and Growth: Specialization Matters

We explore the relationship between openness and growth by taking a closer look at trade‐related knowledge spillovers at the industry level. First, we estimate the relation between sectoral R&D expenditures, trade‐related spillovers, and growth. Next, we incorporate these R&D linkages in a computable general‐equilibrium model for the world economy. We simulate trade liberalization in the model with R&D spillovers and compare the effects on GDP in different regions with a non‐R&D‐based model simulation. We find that the GDP effects of trade liberalization are magnified considerably by R&D spillovers for some regions—notably Japan and Southeast Asia. In other regions, such as China, the additional GDP effects are modest. These findings can be traced back to changing specialization and import patterns.     

The Size of Firms and R&D Investment

We construct an industry-equilibrium model in which it is costly for consumers who have previously purchased from one firm to switch to competitors. This gives firms a certain degree of market power over their established customers. The equilibria we identify under these conditions have the following properties: (1) there is a nontrivial size distribution of firms, although firms are intrinsically identical, (2) larger firms make higher profits, (3) larger firms spend more on R&D, (4) larger firms charge (on average) lower prices, and (5) profits are positively correlated over time. These properties match empirical regularities concerning the manufacturing and retail sectors in the U.S. economy.     

Multinational Production, Absorptive Capacity, and Endogenous R&D Spillovers

Do R&D spillovers have an impact on whether firms choose to go multinational or not? We present a three‐stage Cournot duopoly model, which identifies under what conditions firms choose to service a foreign market through exports or localized production. The establishment of a foreign subsidiary improves the ability to learn from foreign R&D since spillovers are strongly moderated by geographical distance. We explicitly model the concept of absorptive capacity, where gains from spillovers are determined by own R&D investments. With exogenous R&D investments, the absorptive capacity effect contributes to increase the gains from going multinational when the firm is R&D‐intensive. However, if R&D investments are endogenous, only medium‐sized absorptive capacity effects will result in firms going multinational. Furthermore, higher spillover rates do not necessarily drive down R&D and profits for the multinational firm. This stands in contrast to models that ignore absorptive capacity effects.     

家族涉入、多元化战略与企业研发投资

基于代理理论、资源基础观与社会情感财富理论,利用1 745个中国家族上市公司年度观测值,实证检验了家族涉入与研发投资的关系,并探究了企业国际化战略（地区多元化的一种）、产品多元化战略及其组合的调节作用。结果发现：家族涉入阻碍企业研发投资;国际化战略缓和了家族涉入对研发投资的阻碍作用,但产品多元化战略加剧了上述阻碍作用;同时采取国际化战略与产品多元化战略可以缓和家族涉入对研发投资的阻碍作用。不同类型多元化战略的作用不同,应重视不同的多元化战略及其后果。     

税收优惠与企业创新绩效 ——基于研发投入和非研发创新投入的双重中介效应

税收优惠政策对企业创新绩效的影响广受关注,其传导机制更是一个有待深入探讨的问题。基于2000-2015年全国规模以上工业企业的省级面板数据,采用中介效应分析方法,研究税收优惠对企业创新绩效的影响,并运用面板门槛模型对两者之间的非线性关系进行探讨。结果表明:税收优惠一方面可以直接对创新绩效产生正向推动作用,另一方面可以通过研发投入和非研发创新投入发挥部分中介效应,间接提高企业的创新绩效,中介效应值为39.5%,且两者还存在着正向的协同效应。同时这种内在的传导机制存在着区域异质性:对于东部沿海地区而言,研发投入和非研发创新投入同时发挥中介效应;但是对于中西部地区而言,非研发创新投入的中介效应不显著。而且税收优惠对企业创新绩效的促进效果并非一成不变,而是随着研发投入和非研发创新投入的逐渐增加呈递增态势。因此,进一步地加大税收优惠力度的同时,合理规划自主研发和外源技术的资金安排,有利于实现企业创新绩效的最大化。     

家族企业的控制目标、盈利目标与研发投入

以2011—2016年中国沪深两市家族企业为样本,采用二手数据Tobit回归方法,研究了家族企业控制目标和盈利目标的实现与否对研发投入的影响。结果显示:供应商对家族企业的威胁越大,家族企业管理者为了实现控制目标越倾向于增加研发投入;家族企业管理者对盈利目标和控制目标的重视遵循注意力顺序理论,即当盈利目标未实现时,家族企业管理者更关注盈利状况,较少关注控制威胁,因此会减少研发投入;当盈利目标实现后,家族企业管理者才关注控制威胁、增加研发投入;家族企业的资源禀赋优势有助于控制目标的实现。     

R&D, Imperfect Competition and Growth with Human Capital Accumulation

This paper studies the long‐run consequences of imperfect competition on growth and the sectoral distribution of skills within an R&D‐based growth model with human capital accumulation. We find that steady‐state growth is driven only by incentives to accumulate skills. In the model imperfect competition has a positive growth effect, while influencing the allocation of human capital to the different economic activities employing this factor input. Contrary to general wisdom, the share of resources invested in R&D turns out not to be monotonically increasing in the product market power and its correlation with the equilibrium output growth rate is not unambiguous.     

R&D, Human Capital and International Technology Spillovers: A Cross-country Analysis

This paper is based on recent developments in the theory of innovation-driven growth that emphasize both the importance of R&D efforts — domestic as well as foreign — for explaining national productivity, and the complementarity between R&D and human capital investments. Estimates of specifications, in growth terms and in level terms, on a cross-section of OECD countries from the early 1960s to the early 1990s lend strong support to this thesis. The data show a significant influence of both domestic and foreign R&D. Moreover, there is clearly a net positive impact of human capital. The level and growth rate of human capital are shown to affect productivity growth and there is evidence of interaction with the catch-up process.
JEL classification: O 33; O 47     

Technology clubs, R&D and growth patterns: Evidence from EU manufacturing

This paper investigates the forces driving output change in a panel of EU manufacturing industries. A flexible modeling strategy is adopted that accounts for: (i) inefficient use of resources and (ii) differences in the production technology across industries. With our model we are able to identify technical, efficiency, and input growth for endogenously determined technology clubs. Technology club membership is modeled as a function of R&D intensity. This framework allows us to explore the components of output growth in each club, technology spillovers and catch-up issues across industries and countries.     

Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap

Industrialization allowed the industrialized world of today to escape from the Malthusian regime characterized by low economic and population growth and to enter the post-Malthusian regime of high economic and population growth. To explain the transition between these regimes, we construct a growth model with two consumption goods (an agricultural and a manufacturing good), endogenous fertility, and endogenous technological progress in the manufacturing sector. We show that with an exogenous increase in the growth of agricultural productivity our model is able to replicate stylized facts of the British industrial revolution. The paper concludes by illustrating that our proposed model framework can be extended to include the demographic transition, i.e., a regime in which economic growth is associated with falling fertility.     

Public Technology Infrastructure,R&D Sourcing,and Research Joint Ventures

In this paper, we define public technology infrastructure to mean public resources that bring new R&D into existence. Examples are public research that yields knowledge spillovers and government contracts that broker new research. Using this definition we explore the effect of public infrastructure on cooperative R&D, especially R&D sourcing and research joint ventures (RJVs). Our findings strongly suggest that public infrastructure promotes cooperative R&D. We begin by studying the role of federal laboratories in R&D sourcing by private laboratories, finding that sourcing increases as a result. Then we examine patents arising from RJVs sponsored by the Advanced Technology Program (ATP). We find that R&D subsidies as well as difficulty and novelty increase patents produced by the RJVs. Contractual oversight by ATP has no direct effect but an indirect effect appears to exist, since firms value ATP oversight more highly for more difficult and novel projects, and these produce more patents.     

The Catching-up of Japanese with German Industries: Production Organization, Infrastructure, and R&D

This paper presents an empirical productivity comparison between Japan and Germany, focusing on organization, R&D and infrastructure. Time-series datasets from the auto vehicle and electronic engineering industries are used to demonstrate the reversal in productivity advantage from Germany to Japan at around 1980. It is argued that Japanese productivity gains arose from a better infrastructure and from cost-reducing innovations such as lean production methods. An econometric model determines the causes for the observed differences in the quantities of inputs used. It shows that frequent external procurement in Japanese manufacturing has shifted the factor inputs from labor and capital to materials, a result in line with the philosophy of lean production.     

Imported Technology and R&D in the Taiwanese Electronic Industry

The paper identifies the R&D status of the Taiwanese electronics industry by employing a bivariate probit selectivity model to examine the relationship between imports of technology and inhouse R&D at the firm level. A complementary relationship between imported technology and inhouse R&D is observed, which implies that imported technology does not inhibit inhouse R&D in the Taiwanese electronic industry. However, technology-importing enterprises have a higher average level of R&D expenditure than nonimporting ones, indicating that the R&D conducted in the industry is dominated by the adaptive R&D of the technology-importing enterprises.     

R&D subsidies and private R&D expenditures: evidence from Italian manufacturing data

This paper uses a comprehensive firm level data set for the manufacturing sector in Italy to investigate the effect of government support on privately financed R&D expenditure. Estimates from a non‐parametric matching procedure suggest that public assistance has a positive effect on private R&D investment in the sense that the recipient firms achieve more private R&D than they would have without public support. This indicates that the possibility of perfect crowding out between private and public funds can be rejected. Furthermore, in this sample of Italian firms, tax incentives appear to be more effective than direct grants. The paper also examines whether public funding affects the financial sources available for R&D and finds that grants encourage the use of internal sources. The results also show some evidence of positive effects on credit financing for R&D.     

The Impact of Public Policies on Innovation and Imitation: The Role of R&D Technology in Growth Models

It has been shown under the assumption of linear R&D technology that a government subsidy to imitative (innovative) R&D decreases (increases) imitative effort but increases (decreases) innovative effort, and that strengthening the enforcement of patent laws leads to a decrease in innovative R&D but to an increase in imitative R&D. By replacing the linear R&D technology with a sufficiently convex R&D technology, we have shown that the counter-intuitive results are reversed. In the case of linear R&D technology, the socially optimal R&D policies and activities are indeterminate, but with convex R&D technology, optimal innovation and imitation subsidies would induce the market to generate socially 'balanced' innovative and imitative activities.     

Financing R&D in mature companies: An empirical analysis

We study financing patterns of publicly traded R&D-intensive manufacturing firms in Israel. We further characterize R&D-intensive firms by size, physical capital intensity, and whether they issued stocks in the United States, asking whether these features are associated with particular financing patterns. To address these issues, we present, for the first time, adjusted flow of funds charts that treat R&D expenses as a capital outlay (rather than an operating cost that reduces profits, as standard accounting principles prescribe). We also address the question of how R&D inputs should be measured - using R&D expenses or R&D personnel. We construct both expenditure- and personnel-based R&D measures for each firm in our sample, and investigate to what extent these measures are mutually consistent.