地方政府性债务风险预警研究——基于东北地区某市的经验数据

2013年我国地方政府性债务进入偿还高峰期。受到经济下行压力和地方财政收入增速下滑的不利影响,地方政府性债务风险增大。如何科学地监测地方债务风险,准确地评定地方政府债务风险等级,在地方政府债务危机发生前及时发出预警已成为当前地方财政研究的重要课题。论文采用模糊综合判断法和层次分析法构建债务预警模型,对地方政府性债务风险进行整体量化。选取东北地区某市2009-2011年的样本数据,通过设计针对借债、用债和偿债三个环节的风险预警指标体系,对该市地方政府性债务风险预警系统的可操作性进行实证分析与效果验证。实证结果显示:该市政府性债务风险等级为危险,债务风险预警的综合风险系数处于轻度危险区。在此基础上,论文提出了相关的政策建议。     

What matters more for South African households’ debt repayment difficulties?

While the increased access to consumer credit has helped many families improve their welfare, the rising repayment burdens upon a background of chronically low saving rates have generated concerns that South African families are becoming ever more financially fragile and less able to meet their consumer debt repayment obligations. Using data from the Cape Area Panel Study, this article investigates whether consumer debt repayment problems are better explained by excessive spending which leaves households financially overstretched or by negative income shocks. The results indicate that households are significantly more likely to be delinquent on their financial obligations when they suffer negative events beyond their control rather than due to the size of the expenditure burden. This suggests that consumer repayment problems are likely to endure even when consumers borrow within their means. Thus, regulatory efforts to improve mechanisms for debt relief might be more meaningful than restrictions on lending.     

企业债务违约的成因和经济后果分析——以永城煤电和永泰能源为例

目前中国正处在高质量发展的重要转型阶段,发行债券对于企业来说是重要的融资方式。但随着债券市场快速发展,债务违约问题也愈演愈烈,引起了人们的广泛关注。选取永泰能源与永城煤电债务违约案例,以二者的还款意愿与还款能力为切入点进行分析,探究民企和国企债务违约的成因,以及债务违约对发债主体、市场和投资者所造成的经济后果,并针对债务违约的防范工作提出一些应对策略,希望为债务违约的研究提供思路。     

Relief and reform in third world debt

This paper reviews the debt problem and argues that there is a need for wider financial reforms as well as debt relief. North-South dispute is best resolved through the development of agreed rules governing both debt relief and balance-of-payments financing for exogenously created shocks. The poorest countries require both debt relief and increased finance. Improved compensatory finance, more liberal supplementary finance and conditional repayment arrangements are recommended for all. The terms of new arrangements should be applied retroactively as debt relief. A new issue of special drawing rights is advocated for the financing of these relief and reform proposals.     

上市公司自身财务能力与持续现金股利政策——基于沪深A股数据的实证研究

文章以1999-2004年每年都派发过现金股利的沪深A股上市公司为样本,探讨了上市公司盈利能力、长期偿债能力、获取现金能力和发展能力对其持续现金股利政策的影响程度.实证研究结果表明:在持续现金股利政策下,上市公司实现的盈利约有40%作为现金股利派发给了股东;而上市公司长期偿债能力、获取现金能力和发展能力对其持续现金股利政策无显著影响.     

智能化转型对家电企业财务绩效的影响研究——以四川长虹为例

以家电行业智能化转型的试点企业——四川长虹为例，基于财务数据从盈利、偿债、营运、发展、研发五个方面分析智能化转型对财务绩效的影响，发现其在转型中销售体系有缺陷、利润率增幅不明显、偿债风险较高、营收增长减缓等问题，提出在转型进程中应建立智能化销售体系、不断优化转型资本结构、构建智能风控系统、加快核心业务发展等建议，以此促进家电企业高质量发展。     

房地产上市公司现金持有水平的实证研究

选取沪深两市120家A股房地产上市公司作为样本,研究其2009—2011年的财务数据,运用描述性分析、双样本T检验分析房地产上市公司现金持有的现状,并构建回归模型探求房地产上市公司现金持有水平的影响因素及其决策效果。研究结果显示:目前房地产上市公司存在高额现金持有情况,盈利能力和现金持有水平呈显著正相关,负债水平和现金持有水平呈显著负相关,其现金持有水平对公司业绩有着显著的正向效应。     

Bondholder gains from the annexation of Texas and implications of the US bailout

The fate of distressed Republic of Texas debt offers a rare example of bondholder gains associated with state annexation. While soaring in hopes of a US bailout, Texas debt prices remained well below par and never seemed to presume full repayment, however. The fluctuations of the Texas debt on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange over the 1845–1855 period between annexation and final settlement feature structural breaks typically connected with either actual legislation or rumors of pending action. Negative turning points follow when US legislative initiatives in 1845 and 1850 failed to yield a quick resolution of the Texas debt.     

China's sovereign debt: A balance-sheet perspective

We analyze China's sovereign debt by constructing balance sheets for China's government and public sector. We find that China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than that of most large developed economies. We also find the debt-to-asset ratio of China's government and public sector significantly lower than its own historical height (1998–2002). Local government debt is mainly to finance infrastructure investments. Local government debt risk is amplified by two mismatches. The first is the income-expenditure mismatch between central and local governments. The second is the maturity mismatch of short-term debt and long-term infrastructure investments. The maturity mismatch may cause short-term repayment difficulties.     

终极股东控制权、现金流权分离与债务期限结构选择

对终极股东控制权、现金流权分离与债务期限结构选择之间的关系做了实证研究,并且研究了不同法律制度环境下两权分离对债务期限结构选择的影响,结果表明:两权分离度与债务期限结构负相关;法律制度环境的改善在一定程度上减缓了第一大股东与债务期限结构的负相关关系,却加剧了两权分离度与债务期限结构的负相关关系。     

我国商业银行按揭贷款的久期测度研究

随着对用按揭贷款的方式购买房屋、车等大件商品的市场需求变失,我国商业银行推行越来越多的灵活的各种按揭贷款还款方式。针对商业银行目前主要推行的固定利率下的等额本息还款、等额本金还款、等额递增（递减）还款和“双周供”还款的现金流建模,并对这些模型进行久期和凸度测度,最后针对银行如何利用久期和凸度进行利率风险管理提出建议。     

AN ALTERNATIVE PERSPECTIVE ON SOUTH AFRICA'S PUBLIC DEBT, 1962‐1994

The history of public debt reflects the cumulative effect of fiscal decisions and real outcomes in the economy. In the South African case the published record on public debt distorts the historical perspective on the associated fiscal decisions. This paper shows the impact of adjusting the South African public debt on an accrual basis to take account of two major obligations assumed in the first half of the 1990s, namely actuarial pension fund deficits and government debt of the apartheid homelands. The adjusted series is less volatile and rose less steeply between 1989 and 1996 than the official, cash‐based debt series. Failing to account for the evolution of these obligations exaggerates the impression of weak fiscal discipline in the early 1990s and exemplary fiscal prudence in preceding decades.     

MBO融资方式与股东财富理论分析

融资方式是各界对我国上市公司MBO中最为关注的核心问题之一。文章区分非流通股东和流通股东两类主体,对MBO后上市公司迫于管理层还款压力而进行高额派现对不同类型股东财富的影响机理进行了解析,发现MBO后高额派现对管理层有利,而对广大外部中小流通股东不利。     

Ownership concentration and financial policy of China's listed firms

This study examines the role of ownership concentration, measured by the top-five shareholders' equity ownership, in shaping corporate finance policies in China. Among privately-owned enterprises (POEs), ownership concentration has negative and positive effects on their debt and cash reserves, respectively, consistent with controlling shareholders' incentives to stave off business failures and ride out adverse future circumstances. These effects are more pronounced if POEs have high market-to-book, suggesting that growth opportunities heighten their controlling shareholders' desire to avoid debt and hoard cash. Although ownership concentration has similar effects on debt and cash in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), these effects in SOEs appear to reflect management discretion or conservatism. Our evidence suggests that ownership concentration is a key driver of corporate finance in an emerging market, but private and state ownership concentrations have seemingly similar but qualitatively different consequences.     

黑龙江省科技类上市公司现金流量状况分析

现金流量表,是企业重要的财务报表,它能为各类会计报表使用者提供准确的现金流量信息.通过对现金流量表的结构分析、偿债能力分析和获取现金能力分析使得广大会计报表使用者能够对黑龙江省科技类上市公司的经营状况和管理水平有一个更加充分、正确的认识.     

基于结构方程的中小企业运营绩效评价——以渭南地区为例

文章运用结构方程模型分析中小企业的运营绩效及其影响因素,并对模型要素之间的路径关系进行检验。研究结果显示,对中小企业运营绩效最具显著性作用的是企业的成长能力,其次是偿债能力、盈利能力。得出各中小企业运营绩效的综合评价得分并进行排序,根据研究结果提出提高中小企业运营绩效的对策建议。     

1927-1949年国民政府经济建设外债研究

本文分阶段研究国民政府1927-1949年经济建设外债的债务规模、债权国以及经济建设外债用途的变化和特点.经济建设外债规模并没有因抗战的爆发而骤减.经济建设外债债权国趋向集中,从战前老牌资本主义国家转向战时反法西斯主要同盟国再到战后以美国为主.因中国在世界反法西斯战争中的特殊地位,战时经济建设外债借款和还款方式相比战前...     

信息技术类上市公司财务危机预警实证研究

以沪、深A股2008-2012年28家信息技术类上市公司为研究样本,利用ST公司财务危机前3年的数据初步选用21个初始预警变量;从样本的信息显著性和重复性出发,采用因子分析法等方法筛选基础预警指标,最终确定净资产增长率、净利润增长率、技术人员比率等8个指标作为模型初始变量;接着运用Logistic回归分析构建财务危机预警模型。该模型仅针对信息技术类上市公司,对公司发生财务危机前的财务状况的拟合度较高,具有较强的适用性与指导性。     

固定汇率制度下的财政政策:开放经济宏观经济学的拓展

本文主要建立在新开放主义宏观经济学理论上,进一步拓展和分析不同财政政策在固定汇率制度下对国民经济的影响,如消费、产出与汇率等。通过引入迭代模型的基本框架从而打破传统的李嘉图等价假设,我们发现因为有限生命代理人把所购买的国债看作是一种净财富,所以通过发行债券融资而导致的政府支出暂时的增加毫无疑问地将会增加本国居民相对于国外居民的消费水平。而另一方面,由于汇率水平固定不变和短期的价格粘性,政府支出增加的部分将平均分配给本国和外国商品。因此,政府支出暂时的增加将会减少本国的净国外资产头寸。而对于货币政策来说,本国居民相对消费水平的增加将导致本国货币升值压力,本国中央银行为了维系固定汇率水平不得不被动地增加货币供给。     

Patterns of Cuban development: The first twenty-five years

This paper interprets the post-1959 evolution of Cuban economic policymaking and performance as a function of the shifting and interacting domestic and foreign sources of surplus accumulation. Policy choices previously seen as strictly subjective, such as the use of moral incentives in the late 1960s, are attributed objective components. The tensions between decentralization and centralization, market and plan, private and public, agriculture and industry, efficiency and equity are discussed in relation to domestic surplus generation. The role of Soviet aid, commodity prices, trading patterns and debt repayment are treated in analyzing foreign influences on surplus generation.